notanewmember Posted June 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2013 http://www.greenener...140#entry277606 notanewmember, on 23 June 2013 - 11:56 AM, said: That is true. If gold broke past $1200 that would make a good entry point to sell, your stop isn't far away then. However it is so volatile your stop needs to be wide and gold is difficult to trade at the best of times. One must know this market inside out - I do not. --- Today 27 June 2013 notanewmember; $1202 right now - we are coming up to a potential pivotal point.... I won't be taking the trade this time. But good luck to anyone shorting it, you'll need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2013 --From http://www.greenener...140#entry277626 ---- Further up this thread, I posted a DOW/Gold ratio graphic, where in about 1975 we saw a horrible correction in gold (the eventual top wasn't until 1979 where it got to $850+ I was searching for old Jesse Livermore books, and another one that was written by C M Flumiani was this in 1976 The collapse of gold http://www.amazon.co... Maria Flumiani --- Perhaps the low will be marked by a book publication!!! ^ The DOW/GOLD hit 1-1 in 1979/1980 From http://www.sharelynx...owgoldratio.gif Gold price 1920 - 2002 http://chartsrus.com...ixed/GC1900.gif Gold price 1972 - 1979 http://chartsrus.com...d/GC1976btm.gif DOW http://chartsrus.com...ixed/30DJIA.gif - crashed by 50% in 1975? Could it be that history is repeating and all we need to do is just add a ZERO? Are we going through 1975-1976 right now? So the top in this gold in 1980 was $850. SO CAN GOLD BE $8500 THIS TIME ROUND? BY about 2017-2018? I have done the same graphic with SILVER - look how it topped out sooner even in the past too. I will post when the time to be all out in gold when there is a 100% signal - Cah - CHING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2013 For some confirmation, here is what the CRB did in 1976, we seem to be going through the same motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted June 28, 2013 Report Share Posted June 28, 2013 A ULTRA rare Book - The Stock Market Trading Secrets of the Late Jesse Livermore 1965 by C M Flumiani I just found this Carlo Maria Flumiani - The Stock Market Trading Secrets of the Late Jesse Livermore 1965 - there is only one copy on sale, in the whole world and it is $60 on Amazon USA. It is not available on the UK Amazon site. There is a limited portion (pages 21-51) of it as pdf here http://worldwide-inv...Jesse-Livermore I have not studied it yet, so I can't comment if there is anything I don't already know yet. To download you need to register, it is free though. I have not yet found a complete PDF out there. Probably a reprint, so not as rare or valuable as the orig... here's another advert - might be the same book... http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=7407117199&searchurl=sortby%3D0%26vci%3D53971637 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2013 Probably a reprint, so not as rare or valuable as the orig... here's another advert - might be the same book... http://www.abebooks....=0&vci=53971637 Yes it is the same book. It is probably a reprint, and maybe there are 100 stacked away, but only leaking out one book at a time. There ain't just manipulation in Gold and Silver ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2013 A ULTRA rare Book - The Stock Market Trading Secrets of the Late Jesse Livermore 1965 by C M Flumiani I just found this Carlo Maria Flumiani - The Stock Market Trading Secrets of the Late Jesse Livermore 1965 SNIP There is a limited portion (pages 21-51) of it as pdf here http://worldwide-inv...Jesse-Livermore Well, this book fills in the missing jigsaw piece now. I don't know who exactly wrote this book. Was it Jesse Livermore interviewed by Flumiani? Did Jesse Livermore scribble down those notes and draw those pictures? We'll never know until I can get hold of the first 21 pages. But what is important is the information, that we have. Additionally what the R.Smitten books don't say is to concentrate on one group at a time. Look at my pivotal points chart of how I interpreted it, further up this thread, and now take a look at what is in the book..... LEFT CHART - If you take 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 as pivotal points that chart is tradable. The author stresses that volume is important. At the bottom of the chart is the volume. Volume rises when the price rises, and volume falls back on a pull back. After a top point number 10, volume behaves differently, which gives us a clue - never catch a bottom. The price falls, and the volume is high! Going back, at point number 7 the author writes about the price falling back to 59 - this is still a normal reaction - and I believe if you want to stay in the trend, your stop should be safely raised to 58 assuming that the 60 area is to hold and cleared at point 6. The stop is NOT 59! You will be stopped out! ---- Peter Brandt has also used this chart - http://peterlbrandt....go-short-apple/ What I disagree with is the "number counts", I believe they were used to illustrate what was happening, and not that every chart will go through 15 "elliot-type-esq" waves. However he was correct in calling the intermediate top of Apple AT $650 ( BUT it powered on to $700). I need to save this comment from that article here for now, as this is an important clue; AAPL $613 Mr Guru • a year ago Would Livermore short? No. Livermore said when a stock first breaks a multiple of 100, it will continue to the next 40 - 60 level. Just broke 600 ... this ain't the time to short. Check again at 640. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2013 The June Stock challenge ended like this - 91 entrants. I will never bet on penny stocks they are just too unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 29, 2013 Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 Not bad - you are nicely positive in a difficult environment What are the main lessons that you have learned ? Why not start a thread on Livermore, and that trading system ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 Not bad - you are nicely positive in a difficult environment What are the main lessons that you have learned ? Why not start a thread on Livermore, and that trading system ? The Lessons so far; I think some months you're going to get a good run being long and some months you are going to get a good run being short. One MUST master both sides of trading. If the market turns, you just have to let the longs stop out - maybe with a profit and maybe at a small loss if it is false breakout (just unlucky - see portfolio 2). No major longs should be started at this time. In the June Stock Challenge, Evraz LSE:EVR was the best performer (short), and the odds of that happening were in my favour at the start of the month. It was in the weakest group - Industrial Metals. How does one know which month to be long or short? You don't, you must have a probing long and short on simultaneously. Ideally perhaps your net position neither net long or net short. These probing positions are like your look outs on your ship, one on your port side, and the other on the starboard side. You will know whether to concentrate on being long or being short. OR, whether to turn your ship to the starboard or to port if we continue with the ship navigation analogy. The other lesson is to focus on the leading or weakest groups. I stuck in Communisis LSE:CMS (not done anything for 3 months, out at 53p), Fiberweb LSE:FWEB (out at 75p, now 70p) and Xchanging LSE:XCH (out at 135p, now 126p) as an experiment because the Naked Trader had it in his portfolio. Jesse Livermore says his most costly mistake was to trade from Tips! One should not be lazy come up with their OWN TRADES! Jesse Livermore lost a million on trading Cotton from a tip. United Utilities LSE:UU. (out at 734p, now 684p) was stopped out and lucky it did because, it dropped massively which shows the big money use the same stop areas - I did not look at group action, and played it because of take over rumors with Severn Trent LSE:SVT (Crashed from £20 to £16) I believe the share holders rejected the takeover, which took the wind out of the sector's sails (Water, Gas and Mufti-utilities were never a leading group). 888 Holdings LSE:888 - again no confirmation by looking at the group action (no group but other gambling internet stocks were lacklustre - e.g. 32Red LSE:TTR). Japan Residential LSE:JRIC (out at 63p, now 62p, just no momentum) - again no group confirmation, only used the Nikkei which is an abstract way to look for group confirmation. All pretty obvious failures when you look back. However when the market in general is powering ahead, everything goes up even in the weaker groups e.g. Mining - Iofina LSE:IOF 65p tout at 154p, now 147p. Jesse Livermore writes that one must concentrate on the leaders - you won't make money in the market if you don't watch the leaders. That is the home builders, and joint second beverages/aerospace defense and a whiff of financials from late 2012 to about May 2013. The leaders within in those leading groups started to rollover at the end of May. They still continue to be leaders, as nothing has replaced them as yet. If they make new highs, then it is time to get back in. If a new group emerges - then it is time to look at the leaders within that new leading group. I was talking to Isatrader from Trade2Win Forums, and he/she uses a slightly different method in identifying the leading/weakest groups. Telecoms (Fixed Line) are the leaders currently, so I will be watching that group closely. I make BT GROUP BT.A (309p) and Telecom Plus LSE:TEP (1,248p) the leaders in that group right now. If being long doesn't work out then one must concentrate their fire power on shorting the weakest stocks in the weakest groups. For July I presume shorting will be more profitable, so until I see otherwise the same technique will be used. However in the Stock Challenge, you just can't use stops, so I will go half long and half short just in case we get a market reversal - which appears to be already underway. In Flumanis book he writes about concentrating on 4 sectors and no more. I take that as the 2 leading groups and the 2 weakest groups which is a coincidence, because that is what I have been doing. I don't know if I will start a separate thread, as there isn't much more to say about the Jesse Livermore system. It works well in fast booming or crashing markets, particularly shorting I think. But not so well now in modern times, the pivotal points going long must be set wider or it is easy to be stopped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 This caught my eye - published in 1970 http://raretradingbo...onetary_12.html The Gold War, The Story of the World's Monetary Crisis The Gold War, The Story of the World's Monetary Crisis by Gordon L. Weil and Ian Davidson --- Dust Jacket Condition: Very Good, (in Mylar), price intact (NOT price clipped), light soil, spine tanned, Contents: Preface, 1. The Rules of the Game, The Balance of Payments, 2. The Decline of the Dollar, Euro-Dollars and Euro-Bonds, 3. The Defense of the Dollar, The Group of Ten, 4. DeGalle Attacks the Dollar, 5. The Pound Falls-Or was it Pushed?, 6. The Gold Rush, 7. The Collapse of the Franc, the Rise of the Deutschemark, Speculation, 8. The Fight Over "Paper Gold," Special Drawing Rights, 9. What Next?, Epilogue: The Would-be King, Index -- end. 245 pp. Indexed. Interesting title on the monetary issues confronting American in the early 70s. Who'd have thought they would know what would happen in 1979, and 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 Some very good ideas there - I hope more people read that post About Tips... The Lessons so far; ...as an experiment because the Naked Trader had it in his portfolio. Jesse Livermore says his most costly mistake was to trade from Tips! One should not be lazy come up with their OWN TRADES! Jesse Livermore lost a million on trading Cotton from a tip. One of the problems is... Even when they go well, you do not know when to exit. The Tipster may know, gut usually he will not be around to tell you when to exit - so you are left to your own devices, ultimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 Just saving this here: http://www.greenener...91 It is hard to call a top or pick a bottom. We are concerned with the journal between the two. Waves, cycles, Mandelbrot fractal patterns occur over and over. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_GBwuYuOOs Is a dog big? Yes if you are a Ant. Is an Ant big? Yes if you are a bacteria. Is a bacteria big? Yes if you are a virus. And so on. It is all relative and therefore if you weren't human you cannot judge what is big or what is small. I.e. You cannot say this is a top or that is the bottom.. You must take yourself outside of your body and look at everything objectively. The important thing is that we ride the journey between the two points (and profit). Ignore the numbers on the right hand side of the chart. ^Why gold at $1500 was a crucial level. Ignore the feeling that we should be at the beginning of this chart or nearer the end. This chart HAS NO BEGINNING or END - it is the same patterns recurring over and over, over a undefined time frame. If we never get a new buy signal, we are not worried, and move on to something else. We know it is over on this current time line. Just for fun - When would be the "safe" time to buy gold if it was now 1976 (you don't know the future) and at what price level and why? Use the chart above to plan your trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 30, 2013 Report Share Posted June 30, 2013 Yes, It is a similar pattern so far - but the fall need not go so very far dwon. I dont think that the Top at $1920 had the sort of excesses (and public participation) that I would expect at a major Top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 Just for fun - When would be the "safe" time to buy gold if it was now 1976 (you don't know the future) and at what price level and why? Use the chart above to plan your trade. The right answer is above 210 (or even 220 if volatile) in late 1978. I have removed the "gold" in the title, and it could be any metal, or any stock. Unobtainium - a rare metal that is unobtainable! Why? Because it is making a new high or two year+ new high. If the uptrend doesn't continue, you set a stop below 190, so your risk is limited. A bottom is only a bottom AFTER it has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 1, 2013 Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 The right answer is above 210 (or even 220 if volatile) in late 1978. I have removed the "gold" in the title, and it could be any metal, or any stock. Unobtainium - a rare metal that is unobtainable! Why? Because it is making a new high or two year+ new high. If the uptrend doesn't continue, you set a stop below 190, so your risk is limited. A bottom is only a bottom AFTER it has happened. Just curious: why not enter at 200 (with a stop just below previous pre-breakout low, which would have been 170)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 It is best to wait for confirmation rather than trying to anticipate. There are two ways the chart can behave - range bound*, or trending. If you anticipate and it turns out to be continuing to be range bound (190 and 90 over the last two years), then you are on the wrong side of the market immediately. However, you limit your choices once you wait for confirmation. As soon as we reach into fresh territory every single person in the market is in profit, and is likely to hold on, and not a day before. This creates a super squeeze in the market, propelling the price much higher and quicker - I refer to the toothpaste analogy further up this thread. It doesn't always workout - so that is why the stop is there. Is Lloyds about to be squeezed? *If you want to play it range bound then you sell at 190, and buy at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 1, 2013 Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 It is best to wait for confirmation rather than trying to anticipate. There are two ways the chart can behave - range bound*, or trending. If you anticipate and it turns out to be continuing to be range bound (190 and 90 over the last two years), then you are on the wrong side of the market immediately. However, you limit your choices once you wait for confirmation. As soon as we reach into fresh territory every single person in the market is in profit, and is likely to hold on, and not a day before. This creates a super squeeze in the market, propelling the price much higher and quicker - I refer to the toothpaste analogy further up this thread. It doesn't always workout - so that is why the stop is there. Is Lloyds about to be squeezed? *If you want to play it range bound then you sell at 190, and buy at 90. Thanks. So the rationale is to minimize the potential for a fake-breakout. Btw., for what it's worth, 200 would also have been a new all time high (as such it wouldn't be anticipating the rise as such) although it is certainly a tighter entry point more likely to trip up on a false-breakout. But I'm guessing that's where the idea to buy a day following the breakout comes in. [xx] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 Yes absolutely. Lets say gold got to $1900 this week, I think I am going to wait for a daily close or even a weekly close on a Friday (ideally - never get carried away and rush into a trade) for it to be $2000+ as a probe and another larger pyramid position at $2100, and $2200 if funds allow (if only!) to be absolutely sure as gold is much more volatile. $1900 will not be a significant number as time moves on, It was that price in early 2012. On a 2 yr chart, that number will disappear from view soon, and $1800 is more significant, and this is probably the number I am looking for gold to beat, for me to become bullish, It is the same with silver, if it got $50, I might wait until it is $60 for a proper position to get long. As $50 disappears from view, $35 is the number to beat. Why 2 yrs? I think investors get bored after 2 years and sell in disgust or lack of patience, only to be replaced by stronger hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 We're off to a bullish start in July, the metals and miners look stronger than they did last week, so this maybe the reversal people have been patiently waiting for. The correction in equities in general appears to be coming to an end. The VIX volatility index, which I have forgotten to look at has climbed back down to 16 from 20+ which confirms all is well in the world, but what do I know We're back to "RISK OFF" as opposed to "RISK ON". But we'll see as the month continues. We're going to give Fixed Telecoms a try as mentioned a few days ago, as they appear to be the leading group^ NEW MONTHS RESOLUTION - FEWER POSITIONS ON, AND QUALITY NOT QUANTITY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted July 1, 2013 Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 Yes absolutely. Lets say gold got to $1900 this week, I think I am going to wait for a daily close or even a weekly close on a Friday (ideally - never get carried away and rush into a trade) for it to be $2000+ as a probe and another larger pyramid position at $2100, and $2200 if funds allow (if only!) to be absolutely sure as gold is much more volatile. $1900 will not be a significant number as time moves on, It was that price in early 2012. On a 2 yr chart, that number will disappear from view soon, and $1800 is more significant, and this is probably the number I am looking for gold to beat, for me to become bullish, It is the same with silver, if it got $50, I might wait until it is $60 for a proper position to get long. As $50 disappears from view, $35 is the number to beat. Why 2 yrs? I think investors get bored after 2 years and sell in disgust or lack of patience, only to be replaced by stronger hands. Interesting about the 2 years. I generally prefer longer term charts but I agree that time does tend to dampen the resistance effect of previous highs (and vice versa for support effect of previous lows) - if we are simply talking in terms of supply/demand. However, sometimes they act as psychological magnets, e.g., $50 in the 2011 run up in Silver. On the subject of Lloyds, you may want to have a look at NYSE:KBE (Bank Index ETF) and NYSE:KRE (Regional Bank Index ETF) that look like they are breaking out of an ascending triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2013 KBE looks like a healthy chart. For fun only - If one enters at 30.00 maybe have a stop at 25.00, target at 40.00. Lets look back to see if this one works out! I think we missed the ideal spot which was above 26.00 in Feb 2013 when it broke out then. I am not too familiar with stocks on the NYSE. One needs to look at the bank group index (I am sure there is one) and check if they are of a similar pattern. If not, avoid as it would be an anomaly. I don't know how the that KBE ETF is comprised or weighted, so I would make sure to check the bank group. KRE same healthy chart - For fun only - if one enters at 35.00, stop at 30.00, target 45.00 If banks are going up and gold is going down - the markets believe the financial crisis is over. Wow, is all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2013 The rent seekers use technology to collect rent. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tve7yeQqJmg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QNfeL71ojg ^London CCTV Smartcar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2013 Oh my god - these smart cars work in pairs, like wolfpack submarines! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgYy_1CmVhw ^Periscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted July 2, 2013 Report Share Posted July 2, 2013 KBE looks like a healthy chart. For fun only - If one enters at 30.00 maybe have a stop at 25.00, target at 40.00. Lets look back to see if this one works out! I think we missed the ideal spot which was above 26.00 in Feb 2013 when it broke out then. I am not too familiar with stocks on the NYSE. One needs to look at the bank group index (I am sure there is one) and check if they are of a similar pattern. If not, avoid as it would be an anomaly. I don't know how the that KBE ETF is comprised or weighted, so I would make sure to check the bank group. KRE same healthy chart - For fun only - if one enters at 35.00, stop at 30.00, target 45.00 If banks are going up and gold is going down - the markets believe the financial crisis is over. Wow, is all I can say. Check out SX7P - EuroStoxx 600 Banks, less healthy. Which makes the strength in Lloyds all the more impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2013 Check out SX7P - EuroStoxx 600 Banks, less healthy. Which makes the strength in Lloyds all the more impressive Yes that looks mediocre. If we look at the FTSE 350 bank sector, xx:nmx8350* it looks much stronger. I guess we are supporting our banks much better than the European banks, they are dragging the UK down! *http://www.londonsto...tor=8350&page=1 That's a new entry - what the heck is The Bank of Georgia doing in there? LSE:BGEO The chart looks super strong though, worth investigating more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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