Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
notanewmember

Commander T's Diary

Recommended Posts

Illumin+L2.PNG

Illumin+L3.PNG

Illumin+S1.PNG

 

Smallcaps.PNG

 

penny+shares.PNG

 

I'm glad GEI is back!

 

---

 

Good performers to note;

 

@UK LSE:ATUK; Cloud computing, wait for 100p+ for the next train to climb aboard.

Optimal Payments LSE:OPAY; Online payments. I'm waiting for the next potential pivotal point of 300p+

Photo-ME LSE:PHTM; not sure what is driving this, they are an old business that has been around for decades. They are just self service photo kiosks. BUT

 

Whats the trend? What does the market tell us.....Businesses that reduce labour costs and the need for people have been doing well. The march of the machines continue. People are just too expensive to hire....

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Whats the trend? What does the market tell us.....Businesses that reduce labour costs and the need for people have been doing well. The march of the machines continue. People are just too expensive to hire....

 

...And they are getting easier to Kill - I hate seeing so much profit being sought by the Weapons industry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqBGtuKrJaQ

I don't know anything about Gameswork shop - but the first 2 minutes describes that from 2013 November, Games Workshop will no longer supply to retailers who don't have a shop (bricks and mortar). Internet only businesses won't be supplied.

 

The noose around the internet is tightening I believe. Retailers are calling for a internet tax as well as the high street struggles. I believe this is a close "bottom" to internet shopping. Stuff has never been cheaper, but I think it won't get cheaper. Already Ebay sellers that are left are pretty much professionals that are high volume sellers, due to the rise in fees. In the UK Royal Mail is being privatized next year, and they have already put up prices massively for parcels.

 

Ebay is partnering up with big business (Argos teaming up with Ebay), smaller traders are being squeezed. There is some consolidation in the market right now. Supply will be squeezed too (for the end consumer) and outlets will be reduced and hence competition between traders is lowered - which will probably mean higher prices in the long term and less choice.

 

 

Re: Sales dropped by 75% and listing visibility dropped

I have been a titanium powerseller on ebay for 3 years, my sales have reduced by 70% in the last 2 weeks, i have changed to premium seller status on my items, so i am now giving it away!!! my sales for ebay this month will be £6000 and they have invoiced me yesterday for £1390!!!!!!!!!!! I will have to make staff redundant and close my unit.

 

Sept 2013

 

http://community.ebay.co.uk/t5/Business-Seller-Board/Sales-dropped-by-75-and-listing-visibility-dropped/td-p/1991890/page/2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Internet only businesses won't be supplied.

Games Workshop will no longer supply to retailers who don't have a shop (bricks and mortar).

VIDEO

 

Ebay is partnering up with big business (Argos teaming up with Ebay), smaller traders are being squeezed.

 

Re: Sales dropped by 75% and listing visibility dropped

 

http://community.ebay.co.uk/t5/Business-Seller-Board/Sales-dropped-by-75-and-listing-visibility-dropped/td-p/1991890/page/2

 

INTERNET FREEDOM : Underthreat.

 

That is not good.

 

I think it is time to think about building Local Economies,

and using Local Currenciies

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18260

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Expanding from C.Calculus point in Dr Bubbs September Diary; LINK

 

Dryships, DRYS, is showing life; which appears to track the Baltic Dry Index, (comment in 2012).

 

If it can close above $4, that will mean a new 2 year high has been set and that would be a buy signal (no guarantees of course). If it can then clear $10 after that, then really, it is showtime!

 

Thus the market is telling us that the global trade recession might be ending.

 

dryships.PNG

^ DRYS; Price Action now; check out that much larger volume in trading than that false rise in February 2012.

 

 

dryships2.PNG

^Historic Dryships chart. 20 bagger from here?

 

Those patiently sittin' rather than thinkin', might have to wait no more. It has been a long wait too.

 

Oh and couldn't Rhodium be a proxy for the Baltric Dry Index too?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A very nice move indeed !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17414&page=4&do=findComment&comment=281917

House prices are on the rise, and there are some sombre case studies for bears by freetrader on this thread link 1 and affordability charts here link 2

Max Keiser said he will "eat his pants" on RT if the new bubble doesn't collapse within 23 months! Well good luck to him. Carney, Osborne, Cameron have big fish to fry and plenty of ammo and free media brain washing, so timing this one won't be easy.

Looking forward into the future, the builder shares still look weak and the odds in my mind that they will break to new highs from here are less than 50% which is why I am still on the sidelines.

TW. Closed at 97p (needs to clear the 110p area)

BDEV closed at 302p (needs to clear the 350p area)

Sold home prices are a rear view mirror indicator and builder shares are a forward looking indicator, the market is telling us it would like more stimulus... Carney, Osborne and Cameron seem to be content with the rear view mirror view for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is cold/flu season now - and I have come down with something, so I may not be posting as much or creating new trading candidates until I get over this. It looks like it the lurgy season has come earlier than usual.

 

The markets don't appear to be very exciting right now. The VT and SP500 appeared to breakout onto a new level, but have pulled back, maybe in the next few weeks equities will move again. The FTSE Allshare is is under performing compared to the VT and SP500. Gold in sterling looks weak at £810/Toz but the £800 area may hold.

 

Dryships DRYS; at $3.53 doesn't look like it will challenge the $4 area just yet.

 

NCR corporation is probably the only stock that is looking interesting at $39.60 for October. Thread here.

And also other "getting rid of people stocks"; Optimal payments, @UK (a whisker of being stopped out) and Photo-Me.

 

GHT.PNG

 

Incidentally, I am looking at a table of trades - see the pink boxes above. They look like "robot" trades. Look at the times of trades and the size of trades - these are robot traders!

 

What does this action mean? Can we use this to our advantage? Can we learn from robot trades? Is it possible for a human to beat a robot? How is the price being worked - is this bullish or bearish? There are so many questions that this brings up. Perhaps we'll find out later this week.

 

I think this is bearish. Look how liquidity started to dry up, the price went down and it must be a seller who found it harder to sell, judging by the smaller blocks of shares that the robot could trade in between 27th September and the 30th September.

 

This promotes technical analysis. Someone out there has spent time an money in creating a trading robot which trades on price action alone. We know this because there has been no news releases in the last week!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope you recover soon, NANM.

 

You can use the time to do more research, I suppose

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks DrBubb - just when you think that you won't get ill this year!

 

---

 

The "show" about the government shutdown over the US debt ceiling, has hurt shares. Some of my winners have been stopped out with profit - namely Gresham Computers and Topps Tiles. But if we know this is a "show" and after the show, they no doubt raise the debt ceiling once more, shares will rise afterwards.

 

Do we ignore our stops? I would say no. A difficult decision to make, but this is a "running cost" we must accept. There is a 10% chance in my mind that they won't raise the debt ceiling, but as I am not an insider, I can't take the risk. This is what the market is doing also - otherwise it would just ignore the "show".

 

The 17th of October is the penned in date of when a decision will be made.

 

----

 

The U.S. markets had been closed for several hours when Congress, at midnight, let the government shut down, but, even so, they already reflected how things were going in Washington. Stocks were down, continuing a slow-motion slide that’s seen the S. & P. 500 drop on eight of the past nine days. It’s hardly been a momentous decline so far—the S. & P. has fallen about two and a half per cent from its all-time high, and is still up for the month—but it seems clear that markets are getting a little queasy about the shutdown.

 

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2013/10/the-real-fight-the-debt-ceiling.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gamblers tax has increased by 100%.

 

---

 

Statement by the UK National Lottery

 

http://national-lottery.co.uk/

 

National Lottery online services are temporarily unavailable as we are currently making some exciting changes to Lotto.

From Saturday 5th October, there will be more ways to win more money. Lotto will cost £2, creating bigger jackpots and a brand new raffle with at least 50 guaranteed winners of £20,000 in every draw. Plus, matching just 3 numbers will now win you £25!

Plus for each of the draws on Saturday 5th and 12th October 2013 there will be a massive guaranteed jackpot of £10 million plus we'll also be making an almost unbelievable 1,000 raffle winners, all guaranteed to win £20,000 each!

Services will be back up and running soon. Please accept our apologies for any inconvenience and thank you for your patience. In the meantime, here are the latest draw results...

 

---

 

I shall speculate the reasons for the price increase;

 

-Loss of interest by the public (?)

-Pound devaluation by 50% of the years since the National Lottery was launched in 1994

-Costs have risen for the company; wages, rents etc.

-Competition from other lotteries, such the Health Lottery (yes a Freudian slip choice of name!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GHT.PNG

 

Incidentally, I am looking at a table of trades - see the pink boxes above. They look like "robot" trades. Look at the times of trades and the size of trades - these are robot traders!

 

What does this action mean? Can we use this to our advantage? Can we learn from robot trades? Is it possible for a human to beat a robot? How is the price being worked - is this bullish or bearish? There are so many questions that this brings up. Perhaps we'll find out later this week.

 

I think this is bearish. Look how liquidity started to dry up, the price went down and it must be a seller who found it harder to sell, judging by the smaller blocks of shares that the robot could trade in between 27th September and the 30th September.

 

This promotes technical analysis. Someone out there has spent time an money in creating a trading robot which trades on price action alone. We know this because there has been no news releases in the last week!

 

Now down again;

 

GHT2.PNG

 

GHT3.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

daily-mail-raph-miliband.jpg

^The Daily Mail attacks Ralph Milliband (Eds Millibands father, Ed is the leader of the UK Labour party)

 

Paul Dacre is a "coward and a Bully"

 

It's starting to look like dog eat dog over here.

 

Skip straight to 4.50.

 

Alastair Campbell is the former spin doctor of Tony Blair. The Daily Mail is the UK's most influential middle England Newspaper (who will write anything to sell a paper)

 

More here. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100239575/alastair-campbell-treated-politics-with-more-contempt-than-any-daily-mail-journalist/

 

Comment;

 

John Woodhouse

 

I don't know whether or not AC (Alastair Campbell) cares about journalistic ethics. My concern is to that this opportunity to bring the Mail to book is not lost. AC's performance on 'Newsnight' was an important step forward in this endeavour, as his e-petition may also be. Dacre and co are my enemy. AC is my enemy's enemy, and hence is (for now) my friend. The Mail is currently a far more pernicious force than AC - or any other media operator. Everyone who cares about this country should put aside their differences until Dacre is gone and the Mail titles have changed their ways.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Counter propergander flying around. There is a big effort to keep UKIP from winning votes from the Tories. The three big parties are "different" we are being told by the mainstream media. Perhaps this "show" is created to draw attention back to the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems.

 

There is another UKIP Nigel Farage is Hitler picture on the Times front page;

 

 

farage.jpg

Number 1; BBC "error"

 

o-FARAGE-570.jpg?6

Number 2, The Times Front Page - Source http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/01/ukip-nigel-farage-hitler-moustache_n_4021180.html

 

---

 

Do this questionnaire - this has gone viral, not just on niche websites, but also on Facebook.

 

Are you hated by the Daily Mail? (They support the Tories and don't like the BBC, Labour, the Euro, and UKIP )

 

Are you Hated by The Daily Mail?

http://toys.usvsth3m.com/are-you-hated-by-the-daily-mail/

 

Daily Mail Shares, are drifting. LSE:DMGT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

3rd video

 

Remember the peoples' reactions to eyeball licking? There is a massive public unending appetite for watching people's reactions to things. That is probably why Big Brother, X-Factor, and other reality type-shows will continue to be popular, probably forever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is time to hunker down - VIX key level is 30. I would hope all my stops would trigger way before 30 is breached. One by one my longs are being stopped out over the last week or so. The VIX got up to 80 in the 2008 crash.

 

vix.PNG

 

The longer this debt ceiling chicanery goes on! But we all know it will be resolved? The market doesn't quite believe it though. We are still in a bull market, and this is a correction, but we don't want to be on the wrong side of the market.

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57606253/debt-ceiling-understanding-whats-at-stake/

 

7th October 2013

 

(MoneyWatch) It is the economic calamity that no one expects and everyone fears.

Experts agree that failing to raise the nation's debt ceiling by Oct. 17, when U.S. officials say the government will run out of money to pay its bills, would gravely wound the economy, and perhaps even throw it back into recession. Because Treasury bonds and the dollar are cornerstones of the global financial system, meanwhile, the shock wave would be felt around the world.

"The potential is disastrous," said Gus Faucher, senior economist with PNC Financial Services Group. "We would see interest rates spike across the board. We'd see a huge crash in the dollar. People count on lending their money to the federal government and getting it back, and if that trust is taken away -- it's never happened that we haven't met our obligations as a nation -- then that has very, very negative consequences for the U.S. economy."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

farage.jpg

Number 1; BBC "error"

 

o-FARAGE-570.jpg?6

Number 2, The Times Front Page - Source http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/01/ukip-nigel-farage-hitler-moustache_n_4021180.html

 

---

 

The (rented) Mainstream Media is just Doing-its-Thing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is time to hunker down - VIX key level is 30. I would hope all my stops would trigger way before 30 is breached. One by one my longs are being stopped out over the last week or so. The VIX got up to 80 in the 2008 crash.

 

 

VIX was a great Long play near its recent lows... excellent assymetrically skewed trade.

 

I would look to buy if we get a new market rally on resolution of the debt ceiling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy Birthday to the Portfolio!

 

It has been one year since the first trade, we've learned some lessons on the way, and this has been great experience through the ups and downs of the market. The market is a small bull market in equities. One has to be selective and nimble in the smaller shares. Commodities will have their day, but not right now.

 

The only remaining short trade has just moved into profit, whilst over the last week or two, a significant number of longs have been stopped out. The small cap portfolio has really performed well with 10% gain inside 4 months; Jim Slater was right about small companies!. We have learned some lessons too from Jesse Livermore and Bernard Beruch. The short portfolio started well, but I opened too many shorts when the overall market trend was up. A lesson learned!

 

Illumin+L1.PNG

 

Illumin+L2.PNG

 

Illumin+L3.PNG

 

Illumin+S1.PNG

 

Smallcaps.PNG

 

penny+shares.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Royal Mail Plc IPO today - people are annoyed that the small investor could only get a handful of shares, even when they applied for much much more. People have been selling and pocketing £250 at the bell. Institutional investors and people with special access have got the bulk of the shares. Many brokers online sites have shut down and broker offices been continually engaged, which goes to show people generally aren't interested in the markets otherwise and brokers websites are not designed to cope.

 

This is the action this morning - drifting lower. 400p is a key level to watch!

 

I haven't been involved in this one as IPOs don't have any previous chart data to go on.

 

 

Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/royal-mail/10371642/Royal-Mail-postmen-given-shares-will-take-the-money-and-go-on-strike.html

 

rmg.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is time to hunker down - VIX key level is 30. I would hope all my stops would trigger way before 30 is breached. One by one my longs are being stopped out over the last week or so. The VIX got up to 80 in the 2008 crash.

 

 

I find this both interesting and a big red warning sign - a contra sentiment indicator. Apparently people dived into a stock called Tweeter - which happens to be bankrupt LOL because they thought its stock symbol was Twitter - which has not even finished its IPO !!!! Has now been renamed -“THEGQ.” Its old symbol was “TWTRQ.”

 

A big red warning for Tech booming stocks possibly ?

 

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Bankrupt+retailer+Tweeter+stock+soars+confusion+with/9011912/story.html

 

 

NEW YORK — Tweeter is not Twitter. And it’s changing its stock symbol to avoid any confusion.

The bankrupt electronics retailer’s new ticker symbol is “THEGQ.” Its old symbol was “TWTRQ.”

That was apparently too similar to “TWTR,” the symbol proposed by Twitter on Thursday when it filed plans for an initial public offering.

Some confused investors sent Tweeter’s stock up as much as 1,400 per cent on Friday.

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street’s industry regulator, halted trading of Tweeter’s stock Friday afternoon. The over-the-counter stock resumed trading with the new stock symbol Tuesday.

Tweeter’s stock is down 71 per cent to 2 cents in afternoon trading.

Twitter’s stock, meanwhile, won’t be available for trading until the company actually goes public. That could be before U.S. Thanksgiving.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a clever joke!

 

If someone was not so tech savvy and wanted to get in on the Dotcom 2.0 boom, and you had choose between Twitter or Tweeter, I can see how the mistake can happen.

 

---

 

rmg.PNG

 

Royal Mail ended the day up with a rally at the end.

 

Eyes on the 500p level !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I am bullish on Royal Mail - there seems to be a lot of general interest and talk about it. People have been selling their 227 shares and pocketing the beer change money. The shares perhaps will go from the weaker hands to stronger hands now. Royal Mail closed at 475p.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×