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Commander T's Diary

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Commander T's Diary

Hello.

Today, I will start a proper trade diary. I feel I am ready for this, so here goes. I could be severely humiliated and never show my face in GEI again[!], or I could come out as an trading legend.

The portfolio will start with £1,000,000 and will be updated each week on a Sunday. Buys/sells will be registered on a Sunday, using Friday's close price. I.e. No day trading!

The trading timescale will be over 5 years, aiming for 30% annual return each year. If £4,400,000 is reached sooner than Feb 2015, then the experiment will close.

The reasoning behind the sells and buys won't be revealed [sorry]. If successful, I will write my own newsletter, and sell my soul to Goldman Sachs [no not really!].

Rules
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No more than 3% risked per trade [i.e £30,0000]

No more than 75%of portfolio in the market at any one time.

No AIM listed shares.

Long only portfolio [so the beginner investor can follow - crazy I know in this bear market]

Only FTSE listed shares.

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Note this is just for fun, don't follow the trades yourself until you do your own research ad consult your financial advisor!

 

 

VIDEO's from Commander T :

 

=== YouTube Update / June 2014 ===

 

New Navigation Buttons, as the Top of the Webpage:

Channels : GE : CT : FBB :

"CT" : Links to the Commander T Channel on YouTube

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Hello.

 

Today, I will start a proper trade diary....

 

Not this is just for fun, don't follow the trades yourself until you do your own research ad consult your financial advisor!

Why do it for fun notanewmeber, do it for real. Drop you starting fund to £3K and trade. There is a massive difference between trading for fun and trading real money, a difference that only grows when you make your first real loss and is all the more sweeter when you make a profit. It also teaches you how to trade in a way that fun trading never does.

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I have being doing it for real. I just need to make public records.

 

If I had to start with £10K, I'll put it on AEP, currently at 425p. It is already picked in the portolio above. I'll have a secondary "all in" fund, to make it easier and update alongside on this forum. Target £44K by FEB 2015

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WEEK 2 07/03/2010

 

WEEK2.jpg

 

Cash remaining £790,032.53

 

Portfolio value £1,004,366.75

 

% Invested 26.58

 

Profit/loss £4366.75

 

%Profit/loss 0.43668

 

---

 

2nd portfolio value £10442.88

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WEEK1.jpg

 

Cash remaining £880,022.83

Portfolio value £1,000,000

% Invested 13.63342

Profit/loss 0

%Profit/loss 0

 

This is much detail, and it will be a challenge to keep it going - but I wish you luck with it

 

Are you taking anything off for transaction costs?

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I wont be making many trades per year. Hopefully the trend will give good returns. No trades this week, I've been lazy.

 

WEEK 3

WEEK3.jpg

 

Cash remaining £790,032.53

 

Portfolio value £1,004,250.10

 

% Invested 26.58

 

Profit/loss £4250.10

 

%Profit/loss 0.42501

 

---

 

 

2nd portfolio value £10866.24

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WEEK 4 - No trades

WEEK4.jpg

 

Cash remaining £790,032.53

 

Portfolio value £1,008,824.42

 

% Invested 26.58

 

Profit/loss £8824.42

 

%Profit/loss 0.88244

 

 

----

 

2nd Portfolio £10513.44

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WEEK 5 - No trades

WEEK5.jpg

Cash remaining £790,032.53

 

Portfolio value £1,010,595.52

 

% Invested 26.58

 

Profit/loss £10595.52

 

%Profit/loss 1.05955

 

---

 

2nd Portfolio £11007.36

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Thank you.

 

The thing is do I take profits and thus break the set trading rules? Hope for a correction and buy back in? Sell in May and go away? I've few weeks to ponder it. I have only invested 26% so I have firepower to buy some reverse FTSE ETFs if we do double dip.

 

By the way, I might as well reveal the system, it is well known.

 

If it makes a new 4 week high - BUY, If it makes a new 4 week low then SELL. A simple stock scan produces suitable candidates to buy. It only works for liquid stocks, I should have limited the markt cap size to >£100million only.

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...

The thing is do I take profits and thus break the set trading rules? ....

Trade your plan. If you think it is going wrong then sell, if you do not have a profit taking rules in place then sell. It is about increasing value by cycles of evaluation, improving the rules, re-planning and trading again.

 

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Markets closed 2nd April [Easter Bank Holiday] No Trades

 

The markets keep roaring up. All hail the jobless recovery. Only three stocks underwater, even the turkeys will be flying soon.

 

WEEK6.jpg

Cash remaining £790,032.53

 

Portfolio value £1,014,877.10

 

% Invested 26.58

 

Profit/loss £14877.10

 

%Profit/loss 1.48771

 

----

 

2nd Portfolio - £10878.00

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Week 7

WEEK7.jpg

 

Cash remaining £690,595.03

 

Portfolio value £1,020,633.77

 

% Invested 30.94

 

Profit/loss £20633.77

 

%Profit/loss 2.06338

 

 

2 months in, and 2% up. That would be 12% annualised - better than interest in a bank account so far.

 

Just one trade this week - I bought 10% (of the portfolio) physical gold. I will be using goldline's 1oz Krugerrand price to track it. Well they do say, put 10% into physical gold and hope it doesn't perform!

 

 

----

 

2nd Portfolio value £11971.68

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^

It means, by January 2013, we'll be following the green line [1987, hyperinflation, or hyperdevalation of the currency], the Dow will be at at 14,000 pts. This is what we are on course for so far.

 

It is possible still, at the late stage for the DOW to follow the red line, and the DOW to be below 4000pts, and follow a 1929 deflation or hyper-increase in the value of currency. But I do not think this the likely path.

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WEEK8.jpg

Cash remaining £690,595.03

 

Portfolio value £1,017,005.60

 

% Invested 30.94

 

Profit/loss £17005.60

 

%Profit/loss 1.70056

8 Week review

PZC sold, as it hasn't done anything in 8 weeks. Target stops have been set for anything in profit.

 

---

 

2nd portfolio £12,442.08

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... But I do not think this the likely path.

An interesting chart but I would like to know yours reasons as to why you do not think this would be a likely path?

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Well, before the 70s, the US, the UK were on a gold/silver standard. Debt and losses had to be paid back with real physical work after the 1929 crash.

 

Today and in 1987, debt and losses can be printed on a computer in the form of unlimited bailouts, lending from central banks - this is much quicker than going out and working for it, turning a profit etc. Banks can rebuild their balance sheets much quicker, and are continuing to lend albeit a bit less aggressively.

 

That is why the DOW, I will find is unlikely to go below 4000. I am pretty confident on that, for the next decade.

 

Fundamental analysis I find does not aways explain price, however. If the trend is up, buy, if the trend is down sell. So I am open to the possibility of DOW sub 4000, where ever the trend leads. On my monitor, UK banks are soon to be flagging up as a BUY on the weekly charts. Sounds completely crazy [but I said that at the start of the diary], but I'm not going to argue with that if there is money to be made.

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Well, before the 70s, the US, the UK were on a gold/silver standard. Debt and losses had to be paid back with real physical work after the 1929 crash.

 

Today and in 1987, debt and losses can be printed on a computer in the form of unlimited bailouts, lending from central banks - this is much quicker than going out and working for it, turning a profit etc. Banks can rebuild their balance sheets much quicker, and are continuing to lend albeit a bit less aggressively.

 

That is why the DOW, I will find is unlikely to go below 4000. I am pretty confident on that, for the next decade.

 

Fundamental analysis I find does not aways explain price, however. If the trend is up, buy, if the trend is down sell. So I am open to the possibility of DOW sub 4000, where ever the trend leads. On my monitor, UK banks are soon to be flagging up as a BUY on the weekly charts. Sounds completely crazy [but I said that at the start of the diary], but I'm not going to argue with that if there is money to be made.

You are not the only one that thinks that banks will go up especially Barclays. I would also add in to your thoughts that those with spare cash are thinking about buying stuff including stocks, etc because of the belief that the value of their currency is going to go down so they might as well be out of it. A guy at work was citing that as his reason to buy a new car, next year it will cost a whole lot more in GBP. I know it is not an original though that he was having and we all know what herds are like.

 

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week%209.jpg

 

Cash remaining £660,595.28 [not correct yet]

 

Portfolio value £1,019,191.61

 

% Invested 33.94 [not correct yet]

 

Profit/loss £19191.61

 

%Profit/loss 1.91916

 

 

Have lightened up for May as some stops have been hit. May is when statistically shares perform badly, so I have broken my trade plan here. I won't be doing it again, but the profits are too good not to take.

 

RBS added to portfoilio, Buy signal.

 

Yes that dog of a bank!

---

 

2nd Portfoilio now 100% cash £12183.36

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This was a great idea notanewmember (I meant to say sooner) and I was tracking the prices myself although I missed a few weeks.

 

This is where I think we are now, week 17. hoc gained a lot since the 4 week low so that's too bad as it would've been sold on the 7th May.

 

screenshot-3a.png

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wile.jpg

 

I am back! I have been waiting for a sell signal and here it is. I'am short stocks by going long the ETF XUKS (Inverse FTSE-100). http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=10487 As this is a diversified ETF, I'll let myself invest 30% of of the fund into it, which breaks my 3% rule, Life's too short so let's see where this goes.

 

bigq.gif

 

w10.jpg

 

Those stops came in handy eh? A lot of those stocks are lower now. RBS did not form a uptrend, but needs to close below 30p to trigger a sell.

 

Value = £1,018,868.69

 

Well, I'm not on track for a 30% annual return here, I need to invest more agressively - it's a fair bit of work managing a £1M portfolio.

 

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Second portfolio

 

£3000 (30% of initial fund in XUKS)

301 shares at 995p= £2994.95

Cash remaining = £9188.41

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