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Catflap's Cycle Views - A Rally into Q3. 2010

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I still believe the dollar has topped - price momentum looks weak and my fractal work says it's going down to the old lows over the next few months. Despite Greece I think risk appetite has come back and the action in equities has been very strong over the last few weeks.

 

If the Germans sort the Greece problem out then I think the Euro is due a bounce. In a way, the Euro is a better model just like having lots of smaller banks - it's strength is that the risk is spread over several countries. The US on the other hand is like a single bank that is too big to fail....

 

Hopefully the Greece thing gets sorted very soon which gives confidence to the markets for a while longer, allowing the FTSE/S&P turkey to get a bit fatter yet!.

 

I'm still 70% long until next week - think we could get a good short squeeze from here to new highs as the bulls buy this latest dip. I had always planned to sell early May so if we make new highs next week then I'm out ready for the next correction (don't think this is it)

 

I'd say you were a very brave man!

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I'd say you were a very brave man!

 

Personally, I think we will see $1.28-1.30, before a TURN in FXE

 

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I'd say you were a very brave man!

 

There is still significant amounts of optimism.

 

Bulls will see today's action and view the correction as great buying opportunity. I exited my shorts (except RBS) last night as the gain was just too significant not to bag.

 

The markets will digest the fear, and only by the week's end will we know how significant yesterday's falls were IMO.

 

I wouldn't underestimate the strength of this bull market though; it has the ability to absorb negative sentiment and panics with remarkable ease.

 

The earnings reports this week coming out of the US and UK are all extremely postive; the best I've seen in years (albeit from lows they are staggering - 10-40% growth on average in the top US companies).

 

Watching Richard Quest last night on CNN fill his tube up with more green balloons sums it up!

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The earnings reports this week coming out of the US and UK are all extremely postive; the best I've seen in years (albeit from lows they are staggering - 10-40% growth on average in the top US companies).

 

 

mmm, call me skeptical but this is year on year growth off a low low base, where most corps. painted their 2009 books red for genuine reasons, as an excuse to writedown some funny numbers, or enhance earnings under revised accounting regs.

 

 

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BDI peak November 19, 2009 to S&P peak January 19, 2010 = 61 days or 2 months exactly

 

'If' the patten repeats then:

 

BDI bottom February 15, 2010 plus 61 days = S&P bottom April 16, 2010

 

 

I am a little confused with the date of April 16, 2010 as it conflicts with my other work - it might just be a coincidence that the time spans have been matching. Still, I need to be aware of an interim high coming at the end of March which might give a correction into mid April before my projected peak of May 6/7, 2010 as another peak in equities.

 

The USD 4 year cycle does show a peak one week into April where you expect to see a commensurate fall in the S&P. April 15, 2002 was a low point (but in a bear market) as was April 17, 2006 so there might be some relevance in this April 16, 2010 date I have.

 

I am also expecting equities to be strong until around March 26, so there could be a double VIX spike in early April and mid April.

 

Well we did get a low on the S&P on April 16 but it wasn't THE low - I think the overall bullishness of the market pushed the correction further out. The double VIX spike was on April 16 and April 27.

 

I'm still hoping for a peak around May 6/7 and want to try this S&P/BDI thing again as I'm trying to figure where future lows will come. So now that BDI has bottomed again:

 

BDI peak March 15, 2010 to S&P peak April 23, 2010 = 39 days or 1 month and 8 days

 

BDI bottom April 12, 2010 plus 39 days = S&P bottom May 21, 2010 (Friday)

 

 

The 2006 chart (4-year cycle and in a bull market) which has had similar turning points since the beginning of the year had a peak on May 5 before a fall into May 23, followed by a small rise into June 2 and a final low on June 13. There are a number of Bradley turn dates coming up which are also close to the 2006 June dates (June 3, 2010 and June 9, 2010) so it's going to be interesting try and work out what's likely.... more on that later if this peak works out (it might not!).

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It was a sign.... I should have gone short.

 

I'm keeping my foot in on this one for now.

 

I've lost 25% of the money I made on the way up :(

 

I think it's time to cut my losses and walk away from this one.

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Personally, I think we will see $1.28-1.30, before a TURN in FXE

 

I'm expecting $1.25 - 1.255 now

 

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I tend to keep an eye on Tim woods cycles. Basically his annual cycle bottomed in Feb (it was earlier then he expected), his new annual cycle is clearly not a failure but his line in the sand is that ideally this annual cycle will top out before august so that we end up with a left translated annual cycle which would also give a 4 year cycle top (if counting from march09). He is actually looking for a recovery high after ths leg down is done based on indicators like New High data that was very strong up until now, however the counter case is that it looks like we might have a monthly swing high in the making which is good evidence of an annual top.

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I've lost 25% of the money I made on the way up :(

 

I think it's time to cut my losses and walk away from this one.

 

:angry: I forgot to close my position :(:angry:

 

I can't believe I've been soooo stupid

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These things happen Z - dont be too tough on yourself.

 

Have a virtual beer on me <_<

Thankfully I only play with what I can afford to lose.

 

And thanks to my short cable, I'm doing OK

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Here I am - busy gardening amongst other things....

 

:angry: I forgot to close my position :(:angry:

 

I can't believe I've been soooo stupid

 

Know the feeling - I should have taken more profit, now it's mostly gone again.

 

This is me....

 

 

Copied from a reply on one of Dom's threads:

 

 

It's quite normal to keep retesting the 400-day EMA in a bull market..... another great buying opportunity in this cyclical 17/18 month bull market.

 

 

 

 

S&P on a p/e ratio of 16.8

Dow on a p/e ratio of 15.8

FTSE 100 on a p/e of 13.71 (cheap!)

 

Bear in mind that around 73% of FTSE earnings now come from abroad, so any fall in sterling is going to increase profits for FTSE 100 listed companies as those profits get repatriated back to the UK.

 

US economy grows 3.2% in first quarter

 

Does this charts suggest a new bear market is about to happen?

 

 

Asian markets like the Euro backstop that's been put in place over the weekend:

 

http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/euro/euro24hour.php

 

UUP had a nice hanging man on Wednesday - I believe this is now the head of a bigger head and shoulders pattern that will see the focus now shift away from the EU and back to the US with the dollar going back to the low 70's over the rest of the year driving equities higher and gold to all time highs in April 2011.

 

 

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:angry: I forgot to close my position :(:angry:

 

I can't believe I've been soooo stupid

I forgot to close my auto-buy-orders too and I've been buying the FTSE all the way down.....

 

.... now I am staring a huge profit in the face :lol:

 

I've moved my stop losses to lock in around 1/3 of the profits.

 

Looking at oil prices: I notice Brent is priced higher than WTI again. That makes me feel uncomfortable.

 

I shorted Brent earlier today

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I forgot to close my auto-buy-orders too and I've been buying the FTSE all the way down.....

 

.... now I am staring a huge profit in the face :lol:

 

:lol: :lol:

 

Normally the best trades

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I forgot to close my auto-buy-orders too and I've been buying the FTSE all the way down.....

 

.... now I am staring a huge profit in the face :lol:

 

What's that about having good risk and money management? ;)

 

At least with a bull market you can get it wrong and still come up smelling of roses!

 

 

I will fess up and say that my May 6/7 prediction was always going to be wrong and was going to call a bottom not a top - I have looked at it again thoroughly tonight and realise that the May 6/7 date is equal to the October 2, 2009 bottom where the breadth cycle finished on October 19, 2009.

 

So the good news is that the cycle could still make new highs by the end of next week - judging by the big short covering moves we've already seen today which have retraced nearly 50% of the falls in just one day (on the S&P) then this to me seems very likely.

 

So a May cycle top could still come in around May 20/21 before another correction to a low which I have as June 3 (Bradley turn date)

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I will fess up and say that my May 6/7 prediction was always going to be wrong and was going to call a bottom not a top - I have looked at it again thoroughly tonight and realise that the May 6/7 date is equal to the October 2, 2009 bottom where the breadth cycle finished on October 19, 2009.

 

So the good news is that the cycle could still make new highs by the end of next week - judging by the big short covering moves we've already seen today which have retraced nearly 50% of the falls in just one day (on the S&P) then this to me seems very likely.

 

So a May cycle top could still come in around May 20/21 before another correction to a low which I have as June 3 (Bradley turn date)

Those pesky cycles do sometimes invert.

The rally yesterday was more impressive on points, than it was on volume.

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I'm taking 20% off the table. This has been a nice little bonus for me :)

 

EDIT: 20% of my FTSE long I'm still shorting oil)

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I'm taking 20% off the table. This has been a nice little bonus for me :)

 

EDIT: 20% of my FTSE long I'm still shorting oil)

I managed to walk away with a healthy chunk of the FTSE long :)

 

I got burned badly on the oil as it smacked my stoploss before plummeting :(

 

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Copied here from DrBubbs diary

post-3356-1274666021_thumb.pngpost-3356-1274665988_thumb.png

 

Would like to hear others opinions about my working hypothesis that the gold share are destined to break their Oct 2008 lows.

I am a gold bull so this view is NOT want I desire for an outcome, however I am trying to be objective.

First there have been 6 cyclical gold stock bear markets over the past 60 years. These 6 bears have lasted an average of

38 months. (21,29,32,33,55,57months) The high of March 2008 started the 7th bear. Was it really over in 7 short months?

Bear markets need not only depth, but duration. (that's why the 87 crash was not a bear market) Is it realistic to accept the 2008

gold stock plunge of 2008 as such a historical anomaly? Or could we see the Oct 2008 lows violated thus making the 2008 bear

a normal length affair.

 

What really strikes me is the fact that the XAU and HUI have failed to go onto new highs when gold itself has gone onto several new highs.

This seems a MASSIVE non-confirmation. Maybe in fact just a 98% retracement of the decline.

 

We have seen how the gold equities get hammered when the general stock market gets hammered. The XAU would have to decline 63% from

current levels to violate the Oct 2008 lows. Would this be out of the question if the general indexes declined 50%+ which is consistent with

Prechter like scenarios.

 

Please comment on your opinion of this likelihood.

Plunger

 

 

 

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Has Catflap stopped posting?

 

It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on this drop

 

I'm still hoping for a bounce today from a low near SPX-1140

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