Jump to content
drbubb

Catflap's Cycle Views - A Rally into Q3. 2010

Recommended Posts

Catflap's Cycle Views - Food for the Bulls

=======

 

Originally posted on DrB's Diary

 

Catflap's More Bullish view*

 

I have had an interesting PM from CF, where along with other things, he has posted some interesting trading points based on his cycles.

I would like to post them here, but will only do so with his permission.

 

Even better, I would like to suggest he start a thread...

Maybe: "Catflap's Cycle Views" or something. I'm sure it would be very popular,

== ==

 

*Amongst other things, he thinks that the market will slide into about March 1, and then show a strong rally of several weeks

+++

 

Here's another bullish-bias posting from Carl Futia, on the Yelnick Blog

 

Folks:

Tony Caldaro (http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/)is starting to slide out of the long term bear camp. He has changed his long term Dow count to show a super cycle bear market ending in March 2009 and a new supercycle bull market beginning then. However, he has not yet changed his S&P count.

 

For myself, I have always considered 1974-2000 (or, if you prefer, 1982-2000) to be just the first wave of a larger five wave structure. Then the second wave of this structure I take to have ended in March 2009.

 

2/

I forgot to mention a small piece of supporting evidence. I started trading in 1970. I remember well the 1974 and 1982 low points. It is my opinion that the extent and strength of bearish sentiment in 2008-09 far exceeded that of 1974 or 1982. This is typical of a "wave 2" low point.

Posted by: CarlFutia /see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/02...templation.html

 

Headed Towards SPX-1200 in May - maybe? ... update : Daily-1 year

003yg.gif

 

(And this is from Catflap):

I'm fine with you posting that DB

 

I follow Carl Futia but I'm not sure on some of his calls like gold for example - this wave counting IMO leads everyone down the garden path which is why I try not to go there and think in terms of the Kondratieff cycle which says this is a short 18-month rally that will last into late August/early September 2010. After that my work tells me it's another bear market into April/May 2013.

 

Equities have bottomed and are currently tracing out a head and shoulders reversal pattern:

 

SPY is 1/10th of SPX, but shows volumes ... update : SPY chart

003pa.gif

 

(Inverted Head & Shoulders)

Left shoulder: January 29 @ 1073

Head: February 8 @ 1056

Right shoulder : *should be starting to from this week

 

* a bottom happening maybe at end of the week on the 20 or 50-day EMA, but the right shoulder could be quite small

 

My work that I used to call the last correction low gave me a date of 103 calenda days from the October 30 lows - February 8 is 101 days which is another reason I'm confident the low is in. The other thing is, major long-term support in a bull market (secular and cyclical) is the 400-day EMA and we hit that on the S&P and bounced off.

 

UUP / PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund ... update

002to.gif

 

Dollar index - my, what a lovely black candle!.......

 

Anyway - expecting equities and gold to make new highs into early May with the FTSE busting 6000 courtesy of a falling dollar heading back to the 71/72 area. Small pull-back this week, then another short sqeeze as the bulls come in and send the bears running for cover next week :)

 

== ==

(Note from DrB: I dont necessarily agree with the bullish view, but I thought it needed expression on GEI.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have had an interesting PM from CF, where along with other things,

he has posted some interesting trading points based on his cycles.

I would like to post them here, but will only do so with his permission.

+++

(Here's is an excerpt from Catflap's PM):

DrBubb's diary has many followers but has been wrong on equities since July last year* and continues to be wrong with equities - the S&P bottomed in this cycle on February 8 on the 400-day EMA (cofirmed by market breadth and symmetry) and it's currently making a head and shoulders reversal pattern.

 

I seem to be the only one on GEI and HPC calling this correctly - next week should see a fall into the end of the week as the pattern makes the right shoulder. February 28 is a full moon (4th full moon cycle low) and a Bradley turn date on March 1 (one of two most important ones). My work using fractals and symmetry says we should make new highs into early May.

 

So, I suggest GEI has this bearish bais removed and a general 'market thoughts' kind of thread to replace it which includes a market sentiment bull/bear poll on equities/gold/dollar - I've given this example already so it would be good if that kicked off March rather than your diary. That way, all the arguments are on one thread and the bulls and bears can listen to all the arguments and hopefully get the direction right.

 

The other thing is that lots of links and referencing other people isn't the way to call the market IMO - I really believe in the work I've done which is why I am confident to make predictions and be around 90% long at this point with the rest going in on next weeks pull-back. I couldn't be confident if I relied on someone elses work for timing the market.

 

So IMO, DrBubbs diary should be on an equal footing to other members diaries and in the same section - hopefully in time you'll get a good number of diaries going but it means your diary is not the main focus and the best ones stay near the top.

- Catflap

==

 

*(note from DrB):

I cannot post this without also posting a chart, which shows a "sideways move" since October ... update

002u.gif

 

(I lost a big chunk- about half!- of my 2009 profits on Dec.SPX puts, but have made some back trading the 2010 drop.

If GEI has a "bearish bias", then its because a majority of posters feel that way - There is no "house view".)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anyway - expecting equities and gold to make new highs into early May with the FTSE busting 6000 courtesy of a falling dollar heading back to the 71/72 area. Small pull-back this week, then another short sqeeze as the bulls come in and send the bears running for cover next week

 

Interesting view. I'd love to see another bullish week or two... or more... as am looking to buy the VXX [scraping the bottom of the barrel now]. At some point, when the bears finally have their day - even if we see another bullish rally in the interim as CF here suggests - instruments such as SH and VXX should perform well on another Prechterite capitulation.

 

The amount of support the market is getting has always meant that it has been capable of rallying. I've always suspected another huge rally up which would take the gold/silver ratio to 50. But with the ratio now at near 70, this big push up might not happen. Is sovereign debt casting a shadow over the market now? It seems to be just dallying in no-man's land.

 

I've sold a core position in silver as I don't think it will perform the way gold will. Half will go into VXX and the other half into gold. Not selling any gold of course.

 

Find it difficult to see the dollar back down to71/ 72... but who knows, anything can happen in this "twilight" market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bull versus bear implies lack of objectivity to my way of thinking.

 

The global economy is seriously messed up right now but is moving in the direction of a recovery.

 

1. China is spending an incredible amount of money that is supporting places like Australia where the resource sector is taking off again apparently. Prices are rising a little again in NZ for many of their commodities

 

2. US imports and exports are heading back up again or at least have stabilised

 

3. US residential housing and even commercial shows signs of stabilising.

 

4. European monetary policy will likely become even weaker so that all nations are bailed as Greece is bailed - a larger inflation target will be allowed or hidden by statistics.

 

5. Ongoing stimulus and monetary policy will support this recovery no matter what it takes to achieve

 

So there will be a recovery

 

If there are going to be problems they will be there for next time because risk was so strongly bailed out when the crisis was created by excessive risk taking and leverage.

 

Prechters deflation is still out there waiting however - but i cant see it happening now for a few years - if ever in our lifetimes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Prechters deflation is still out there waiting however - but i cant see it happening now for a few years - if ever in our lifetimes.

 

:blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3. US residential housing and even commercial shows signs of stabilising.

I think you know that I believe the residential and commercial "recoveries" will be brief in the US & UK,

and are likely to be followed by plunges to fresh lows.

 

No guarantee on this, but it seems highly likely to me.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think you know that I believe the residential and commercial "recoveries" will be brief in the US & UK,

and are likely to be followed by plunges to fresh lows.

 

No guarantee on this, but it seems highly likely to me.

 

So you are saying that there will be a uk recovery?

 

But it will be brief? I was not aware you were saying that.

 

Are you saying that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So you are saying that there will be a uk recovery?

 

But it will be brief? I was not aware you were saying that.

 

Are you saying that?

How do you define 'recovery' ??

 

Are you using data such as GDP OR a number of data sources OR general sentiment OR a combination of ... ???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How do you define 'recovery' ??

 

Are you using data such as GDP OR a number of data sources OR general sentiment OR a combination of ... ???

 

I was talking about a US recovery. Which will be related to a floor in house prices and a transformation in how many people view their net worth and how much money they can afford to spend. It will also be related to a recovering manufacturing sector that is sustainable rather than just inventory adjustment in a recession after a near collapse post lehmans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was talking about a US recovery. Which will be related to a floor in house prices and a transformation in how many people view their net worth and how much money they can afford to spend. It will also be related to a recovering manufacturing sector that is sustainable rather than just inventory adjustment in a recession after a near collapse post lehmans

Could you collect the data and weight each of the indecies according to your view and create and A&K US Recovery Index ??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread is a bit weird. It's like DrBubb has a sockpuppet called Catflap and we're all too polite to mention it. Anyway...

 

Catflap, Can you provide some more information on your Kondratieff cycle. I notice you've used it for a very short (18 month) time-scale. I've always known K-Waves to be 4 seasons lasting 15+ years each.

 

I believe K-Waves and Martin Armstrongs Business Confidence cycles are compatible. Have you come up with your own confidence cycles within the seasons?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This thread is a bit weird. It's like DrBubb has a sockpuppet called Catflap and we're all too polite to mention it. Anyway...

 

Catflap, Can you provide some more information on your Kondratieff cycle. I notice you've used it for a very short (18 month) time-scale. I've always known K-Waves to be 4 seasons lasting 15+ years each.

 

I believe K-Waves and Martin Armstrongs Business Confidence cycles are compatible. Have you come up with your own confidence cycles within the seasons?

 

I think DrBubb was keen to get a thread going after I (directly and without mincing my words) told him that the 'diary' had been wrong on equities since July 2009 - in fact Prechter and all the EW guys referenced on that thread have been continually wrong. Reading what is being said more recently then I can see that it's going to be wrong again and I was suggesting that GEI has too much of a bear bias that is way too early.

 

With my comments in mind DrBubb has decided to start the thread, probably because I said I was taking a break from posting to see how things go on here..... I wanted to see some site improvements before posting again and know the trolling issue was sorted. What's happening right now has implications for anyone that blindly follows so-called experts like Prechter and Neeley and has a short position - I'm quite happy to be long here because I know they will be wrong yet again!

 

So at least there is now a thread to counter DrBubb's equity bearish diary, although I think a general thread where bulls and bears argue the direction is better. Certainly we shouldn't follow others in a herd like manner but should learn to read the market ourselves and make our own decisions.

 

With regards to my own K-wave theory, you should be able to serch for it - I use fractals and say the entire cycle is now around 72 years long with the deflationary K-winter being the longest at 20 years. The 18-month cyclical bull market is something that happens in both the K-summer and K-winter when the stockmarket is in a long secular bear market and commodities are in a long secular bull market.

 

It's a rebound that follows a 'panic crash' sell-off where there has been a major financial crisis, eg. secondary banking/oil crisis 1973 and 2007 sub-prime/banking crisis. The same with Japan in 1997 with the Asian financial crisis which led to a panic sell-off and an 18-month cyclical bull market afterwards. The only exception was the 1938/39 period due to exceptional events back then which I think changed the markets behaviour and what Louise Yamada says about the period re-inforces this, so I don't use that period.

 

Yes, I have come up with my own confidence cycles within the seasons and have a very good idea what likely lays ahead, eg after a projected low in April/May 2013 we should get a 4-year bull market into summer 2017. But it's largely to do with the baby boomer generation who are born between 1946 and 1964 - when they retire en masse then a long deflationary period in assets is the only outcome like we've seen in Japan.

 

I should also say that whilst I like reading Martin Armstrong's articles (when I have the time!) and respect his work, I don't see any logic in his theory for such a fixed cycle - there will nearly always be something that can be made to fit with one of the dates, but sometimes there is nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think DrBubb was keen to get a thread going after I (directly and without mincing my words) told him that the 'diary' had been wrong on equities since July 2009 - in fact Prechter and all the EW guys referenced on that thread have been continually wrong. Reading what is being said more recently then I can see that it's going to be wrong again and I was suggesting that GEI has too much of a bear bias that is way too early.

 

With my comments in mind DrBubb has decided to start the thread, probably because I said I was taking a break from posting to see how things go on here..... I wanted to see some site improvements before posting again and know the trolling issue was sorted. What's happening right now has implications for anyone that blindly follows so-called experts like Prechter and Neeley and has a short position - I'm quite happy to be long here because I know they will be wrong yet again!

 

So at least there is now a thread to counter DrBubb's equity bearish diary, although I think a general thread where bulls and bears argue the direction is better. Certainly we shouldn't follow others in a herd like manner but should learn to read the market ourselves and make our own decisions.

 

With regards to my own K-wave theory, you should be able to serch for it - I use fractals and say the entire cycle is now around 72 long with the deflationary K-winter being the longest at 20 years. The 18-month cyclical bull market is something that happens in both the K-summer and K-winter when the stockmarket is in a long secular bear market and commodities are in a long secular bull market.

 

It's a rebound that follows a 'panic crash' sell-off where there has been a major financial crisis, eg. secondary banking/oil crisis 1973 and 2007 sub-prime/banking crisis. The same with Japan in 1997 with the Asian financial crisis which led to a panic sell-off and an 18-month cyclical bull market afterwards. The only exception was the 1938/39 period due to exceptional events back then which I think changed the markets behaviour and what Louise Yamada says about the period re-inforces this, so I don't use that period.

 

Yes, I have come up with my own confidence cycles within the seasons and have a very good idea what likely lays ahead, eg after a projected low in April/May 2013 we should get a 4-year bull market into summer 2017. But it's largely to do with the baby boomer generation who are born between 1946 and 1964 - when they retire en masse then a long deflationary period in assets is the only outcome like we've seen in Japan.

 

I should also say that whilst I like reading Martin Armstrong's articles (when I have the time!) and respect his work, I don't see any logic in his theory for such a fixed cycle - there will nearly always be something that can be made to fit with one of the dates, but sometimes there is nothing.

 

I think as soon as you start making statements like the one highlighted above, that is when your thesis is most likely to be proved incorrect by Mr Market. By saying you know others will be wrong you are by implication saying you know you are right and that in my view is rather arrogant.

 

Here is a chart showing you how wrong Prechter / EWI has been recently

 

djtrin.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So you are saying that there will be a uk recovery?

But it will be brief? I was not aware you were saying that.

Are you saying that?

The rebound in UK property is nearly done, and may be finishing now IMHO

hpiuk2009calls.gif

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... I know they will be wrong yet again!

My trading improved dramatically when I adopted the mantra: "Anything can happen."

I too think it is dangerous to "know" what will happen. Eventually you will get it wrong in a spectacular way.

Even though some say I was "wrong" about the market last year, I called the bottom to the day, rode it part of the way up, and made some decent money for the year. Even when I was bearish, I had limited risk, using puts, and retained a long position in Juniors and in HK property - so the Puts were a hedge, albeit an "overhedge."

 

So at least there is now a thread to counter DrBubb's equity bearish diary, although I think a general thread where bulls and bears argue the direction is better. Certainly we shouldn't follow others in a herd like manner but should learn to read the market ourselves and make our own decisions.

Because I don' t expect to be right all the time, I think it is great to have a thread where other points of view are articulated, and I think that Catflap has done a good job at presenting his cyclical views. And I like to think that GEI is mature enough (now) that people can respect the opinions of those which are different from their own. Also, I think that CF is tough enough to stand up to a few skeptics who may disagree with his point of view.

 

It is good to see that he is willing to post on this thread. And maybe others who are also Bullish, or have a similar cyclical view will be willing to post here also.

 

With regards to my own K-wave theory, you should be able to search for it - I use fractals and say the entire cycle is now around 72 long...

"72 long"?

Does that mean 72 years long? Doesn't Harry Dent have something similar.

What do you think of Dent's views, Catflap?

 

... with the deflationary K-winter being the longest at 20 years. The 18-month cyclical bull market is something that happens in both the K-summer and K-winter when the stockmarket is in a long secular bear market and commodities are in a long secular bull market.

 

It's a rebound that follows a 'panic crash' sell-off where there has been a major financial crisis, eg. secondary banking/oil crisis 1973 and 2007 sub-prime/banking crisis. The same with Japan in 1997 with the Asian financial crisis which led to a panic sell-off and an 18-month cyclical bull market afterwards. The only exception was the 1938/39 period due to exceptional events back then which I think changed the markets behaviour and what Louise Yamada says about the period re-inforces this, so I don't use that period.

 

Yes, I have come up with my own confidence cycles within the seasons and have a very good idea what likely lays ahead, eg after a projected low in April/May 2013 we should get a 4-year bull market into summer 2017. But it's largely to do with the baby boomer generation who are born between 1946 and 1964 - when they retire en masse then a long deflationary period in assets is the only outcome like we've seen in Japan.

 

I should also say that whilst I like reading Martin Armstrong's articles (when I have the time!) and respect his work, I don't see any logic in his theory for such a fixed cycle - there will nearly always be something that can be made to fit with one of the dates, but sometimes there is nothing.

SPX over ten years ... update : close-up w/860wk : 10yrs-w/530wk : 10yrs-w/330wk

xxx.gif

 

The above chart shows the S&P500 index over the last ten years, with various key MA's. I am getting an indication from the other MA's (330wk, 530wk) that the market may need to rally to about SPX-1200 before the rally is done, and the 860MA shoes likely support near SPX-1045, so perhaps we will fall to that level and rally again.

 

You talk about about an "18-month cyclical bull market", by which you mean a rally from March 2009 to Sept/Oct.2010. That looks possible in the context of my Moving Averages, so it may be interesting to observe how your call works in relation to the MA's. In fact, I may consider taking profits on at least some of my recently-acquired short positions if stocks get oversold if/when they slam into SPX-1040/50 in the days to come.

 

It's a rebound that follows a 'panic crash' sell-off where there has been a major financial crisis, eg. secondary banking/oil crisis 1973 and 2007 sub-prime/banking crisis. The same with Japan in 1997 with the Asian financial crisis which led to a panic sell-off and an 18-month cyclical bull market afterwards. The only exception was the 1938/39 period due to exceptional events back then which I think changed the markets behaviour and what Louise Yamada says about the period re-inforces this, so I don't use that period.

 

Yes, I have come up with my own confidence cycles within the seasons and have a very good idea what likely lays ahead, eg after a projected low in April/May 2013 we should get a 4-year bull market into summer 2017. But it's largely to do with the baby boomer generation who are born between 1946 and 1964 - when they retire en masse then a long deflationary period in assets is the only outcome like we've seen in Japan.

 

I should also say that whilst I like reading Martin Armstrong's articles (when I have the time!) and respect his work, I don't see any logic in his theory for such a fixed cycle - there will nearly always be something that can be made to fit with one of the dates, but sometimes there is nothing.

Yamada talks about the "rule of alternation", and how the thirties saw a single dip, and we should see a "double dip" in this market decline. The fall into the 2002 low was the first dip, and we are now in the second dip or it ended in 2009.

 

Yes, I have come up with my own confidence cycles within the seasons and have a very good idea what likely lays ahead, eg after a projected low in April/May 2013 we should get a 4-year bull market into summer 2017. But it's largely to do with the baby boomer generation who are born between 1946 and 1964 - when they retire en masse then a long deflationary period in assets is the only outcome like we've seen in Japan.

 

I should also say that whilst I like reading Martin Armstrong's articles (when I have the time!) and respect his work, I don't see any logic in his theory for such a fixed cycle - there will nearly always be something that can be made to fit with one of the dates, but sometimes there is nothing.

2012 or 2013 would be a good time for a low IMHO. Personally, I will want to see how the fall looks then, and I am sure that it things develop differently from what you expect, you will be flexible enough to change your view. But if April/May 2013 proves to be the low, it will be an excellent call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think as soon as you start making statements like the one highlighted above, that is when your thesis is most likely to be proved incorrect by Mr Market. By saying you "know" others will be wrong you are by implication saying you "know" you are right and that it my view is arrogant beyond belief.

 

Don't confuse arrogance with confidence - wait and see before judging me and also have a look at my previous call when I knew others like Prechter would be wrong. I've done a mountain of unique work and also use a lot of other technical indicators and market breadth stuff.

 

I've also identified a fractal pattern in the dollar index that's happened twice before, so I know what's coming next.

 

Anyway - I'm looking at another rally to peak on either Thursday May 6 or Friday May 7. I would normally say Friday but because the election could be on the Thursday, the markets might end up lower on the Friday. Let's see if I nail it on one of these two days or get very close.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is a chart showing you how wrong Prechter / EWI has been recently

 

djtrin.gif

 

Hang on a minute - Prechter and EWI were calling for a third wave down in June/July, October and just recently. I'll find you all the quotes if you like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't confuse arrogance with confidence - wait and see before judging me and also have a look at my previous call when I knew others like Prechter would be wrong. I've done a mountain of unique work and also use a lot of other technical indicators and market breadth stuff.

 

I've also identified a fractal pattern in the dollar index that's happened twice before, so I know what's coming next.

 

Anyway - I'm looking at another rally to peak on either Thursday May 6 or Friday May 7. I would normally say Friday but because the election could be on the Thursday, the markets might end up lower on the Friday. Let's see if I nail it on one of these two days or get very close.

 

Catflap your posts remind me of Ker. At worst you'll suffer a few sniggers, at best you'll be confirmed a genius.

 

Don't disappear like Ker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hang on a minute - Prechter and EWI were calling for a third wave down in June/July, October and just recently. I'll find you all the quotes if you like.

Calling tops is a tougher business than calling lows.

They have made more than one call of the top, and the one made in January still "looks Good" imho.

 

And if SPX slides through that SPX-1040/50 level (860wk.MA) identified above and we make new lows for the year, this drop could turn into something vary nasty indeed.

 

SPX Weekly close-up ... update

xxxm.gif

 

SPY Daily close-up ... update

zzzzt.gif

 

Out of interest, what would you do, if we see a price collapse below SPX-1040?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Catflap your posts remind me of Ker. At worst you'll suffer a few sniggers, at best you'll be confirmed a genius.

Don't disappear like Ker

Without wanting to disrespect Ker, I think Catflap's views have stood up very well over the last few months - better than Ker's, which is one of the reasons that I wanted to get CF posting here again. He can make a strong contribution here. Even if he is wrong at times, his postings can inspire a highly level of discussion, which will be good for the site.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My trading improved dramatically when I adopted the mantra: "Anything can happen."

I too think it is dangerous to "know" what will happen. Eventually you will get it wrong in a spectacular way.

Even though some say I was "wrong" about the market last year, I called the bottom to the day, rode it part of the way up, and made some decent money for the year. Even when I was bearish, I had limited risk, using puts, and retained a long position in Juniors and in HK property - so the Puts were a hedge, albeit an "overhedge."

 

I know what you mean, but I'm happy to put my predictions out there because I've done so much work on them. I personally think people like Prechter and Neeley are quite arrogant in the predictions they put out which are proving to be wrong - I am confident (not arrogant) that I am right, even though I have far less experience because I have a different system that's so far proving to be reasonably correct, but accuracy needs improving.

 

I could be a genius or completely mad - it's a fine line as you know :D

 

 

"72 long"?

Does that mean 72 years long? Doesn't Harry Dent have something similar.

What do you think of Dent's views, Catflap?

 

edited - yes, 72 years.

 

Harry Dent - I follow him a lot, although he's not as precise and you can't be if your simply modelling trends using birth data and when the baby boomers reach peak spending (he says 46). But he's precise enough to within months and his forecasts of a low in 2013 (I think) and a subsequent bull market into 2017 (think he said that) fit in with mine.

 

If Dom could get Harry on FB&B then that would be great. Might be good for GEI'ers to hear some of his videos on YouTube.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Calling tops is a tougher business than calling lows.

They have made more than one call of the top, and the one made in January still "looks Good" imho.

 

And if SPX slides through that SPX-1045 level identified above and we make new lows for the year, this drop could turn into something vary nasty indeed.

 

Out of interest, what would you do, if we see a price collapse below SPX-1040?

 

It won't because the dollar index hasn't completed it's fractal pattern yet - I've identified a fractal pattern on the dollar index that happens almost exactly every 18 years. The last part of this fractal pattern is down again and that's where we are now.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It won't because the dollar index hasn't completed it's fractal pattern yet - I've identified a fractal pattern on the dollar index that happens almost exactly every 18 years. The last part of this fractal pattern is down again and that's where we are now.

You may be right - But let me caution you: "anything can happen", so it is useful to have an exit strategy.

 

I made great calls on various markets for years, and then I found that there were times when I was most confident, and my view proved wrong, and I wound up losing most of what I made from the great calls.

 

Do be ready for "anything." That's my advice after years of making a living at the trading game.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Harry Dent - I follow him a lot, although he's not as precise and you can't be if your simply modelling trends using birth data and when the baby boomers reach peak spending (he says 46). But he's precise enough to within months and his forecasts of a low in 2013 (I think) and a subsequent bull market into 2017 (think he said that) fit in with mine.

 

If Dom could get Harry on FB&B then that would be great. Might be good for GEI'ers to hear some of his videos on YouTube.

 

 

Hiya Cat

 

Good to see you back.

 

Agree H Dent would be a good guest on FBB. Had a quick look at youtube - most recent vid a quick look brings up = Oct 2009 -

 

I see his website has some freebie vids as well but these seem older

http://www.hsdent.com/hs-dent-free-video-downloads/

 

- do you have any more recent links?

 

+ I remember a while back when you were looking at TA skills training you suggested you tube is a good place to look - do you have (or remember) any links ?

 

+ What is that pic in your profile - a TV programme ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't confuse arrogance with confidence - wait and see before judging me and also have a look at my previous call when I knew others like Prechter would be wrong. I've done a mountain of unique work and also use a lot of other technical indicators and market breadth stuff.

 

I've also identified a fractal pattern in the dollar index that's happened twice before, so I know what's coming next.

 

Anyway - I'm looking at another rally to peak on either Thursday May 6 or Friday May 7. I would normally say Friday but because the election could be on the Thursday, the markets might end up lower on the Friday. Let's see if I nail it on one of these two days or get very close.

 

Fair enough, are you able to post a chart or two explaining these fractal patterns that allow you to foresee future market direction vis a vis the dollar?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×