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PIIGS / Europe's Debt Troubles

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If true - the banks lending the money must be pleased that they have been saved from their mistakes

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Soveriegn Man warns of capital controls
[url="http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/is-the-imf-now-recommending-capital-controls-8975/"]http://www.sovereign...-controls-8975/[/url]

When I sold my gold sovereigns in January, the dealer said she'll be taking them to a coin exhibition later that week. She said sovereigns are very popular with Italians. Heck, any genuine gold coins will be popular with the Italians, the Spanish, the Portuguese etc etc

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http://freepl.info/3071-hitler-s-daughter-leave-greece
[quote]
[b] "Hitler's daughter, leave Greece!"[/b]

[/quote]

I wonder if those Greeks realise how much truth there is in their banners.
It was only a few days ago when Gordon Duff was saying that Merkel should take a DNA test.

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http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/a-message-for-greece-from-man-who.html
[quote][b]A Message for Greece from The man who changed Iceland : Fight with Your Brains[/b][/quote]

He's smart, this guy.
Got to be asymmetrical.
No violence.
Use the Gandhi tactics

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Marketwatch.com;

"[color=#333333][font=Arial]SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's downgraded Spain's long-term credit rating to one notch above junk, to BBB- from BBB+, because of mounting risks to the country's public finances. The outlook is negative. The ratings agency said that tensions between Spain's regional governments and the central government are rising, leading to less effective policy decisions. Also, the country faces a GDP contraction of 1.8% in 2012, and 1.4% in 2013. "The pace of private sector deleveraging, together with the government's budgetary consolidation measures, is likely to lead to an even deeper contraction of investment and consumption in both the public and private sectors,"[/font][/color]

[color=#333333][font=Arial]Doesn't look good.[/font][/color]

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[quote name='callmejoe' timestamp='1349918048' post='258541']
[url="http://freepl.info/3071-hitler-s-daughter-leave-greece"]http://freepl.info/3...er-leave-greece[/url]

I wonder if those Greeks realise how much truth there is in their banners.
It was only a few days ago when Gordon Duff was saying that Merkel should take a DNA test.
[/quote]
Have thye got Hitler's to match it with?

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Why does this make me laugh?

I read recently that a new best selling novel in Greece...

Is about a serial killer who is knocking off Tax Dodgers.
Apparently, it strikes a chord

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Have I posted this link somewhere?
http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-men-on-lagarde-list-found-dead-2012-10
[quote]
[b] A Second Greek Man Has Been Found Dead Since The Emergence Of 'The Lagarde List'[/b]

[/quote]

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http://rt.com/news/switzerland-prepares-europe-unrest-263/
[quote]
[b] Switzerland arming in preparation for European meltdown?[/b]

[/quote]

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[size=4][b] Europe could be plunged into war if the euro collapses, says Cable as he warns of 'awful' consequences[/b][/size][list]
[*][size=4]Business Secretary's warning comes only days after the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize[/size]
[*][size=4][b]Cable describes the Euro as 'very valuable'[/b][/size]
[/list]
[size=3][color=#000000][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Read more: [url="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2217672/Europe-plunged-war-euro-collapses-says-Cable-warns-awful-consequences.html#ixzz29LhBXp9V"]http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz29LhBXp9V[/url]
Follow us: [url="http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bBOTTqvd0r3Pooab7jrHcU&u=MailOnline"]@MailOnline on Twitter[/url] | [url="http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=bBOTTqvd0r3Pooab7jrHcU&u=DailyMail"]DailyMail on Facebook[/url][/font][/color][/size]

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GREEK BOND prices are rising, despite austerity - points out an article in the WSJ

... highest level since a debt restructuring - to about 17.2% yield, from a high near 31%.

[URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/337/greekbond.png/][IMG]http://imageshack.us/a/img337/759/greekbond.png[/IMG][/URL]

German Finance minister Schauble has said that he doesnt think Greece will default on its debt.
"There's been a sea-change in sentiment since June..."
== ==

What the article does not mention is that it is very expensive to be short high-yield instruments like this

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[size=4][color=#000000][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A Fascist party in full cry. Black-shirts smashing migrants' homes. Swastikas on the streets. No, not Germany in the Thirties: Greece 2012[/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Read more: [url="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2219374/Greece-today-A-Fascist-party-black-shirts-smashing-migrants-homes-Swastikas-streets.html#ixzz29e9Fvygi"]http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2219374/Greece-today-A-Fascist-party-black-shirts-smashing-migrants-homes-Swastikas-streets.html#ixzz29e9Fvygi[/url]
Follow us: [url="http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bBOTTqvd0r3Pooab7jrHcU&u=MailOnline"]@MailOnline on Twitter[/url] | [url="http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=bBOTTqvd0r3Pooab7jrHcU&u=DailyMail"]DailyMail on Facebook[/url][/font][/color][/size]
[img]http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/10/18/article-2219374-156F4AF6000005DC-393_634x443.jpg[/img]

[img]http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/10/18/article-2219374-158D18F2000005DC-421_634x419.jpg[/img]




========================================

[size=4]Full story and video at the link,[/size]

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[quote name='callmejoe' timestamp='1350049846' post='258596']
Have I posted this link somewhere?
[url="http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-men-on-lagarde-list-found-dead-2012-10"]http://www.businessi...nd-dead-2012-10[/url]
[quote][b]A Second Greek Man Has Been Found Dead Since The Emergence Of 'The Lagarde List'[/b][/quote]
[/quote]


[url="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/11/201211110106559795.html"]http://www.aljazeera...0106559795.html[/url]
[quote]
[b]Greek editor acquitted over Swiss bank list[/b]

A Greek journalist who published the names of more than 2,000 Greeks with Swiss bank accounts has been acquitted of breaking data privacy laws.

Costas Vaxevanis's acquittal on Thursday came hours after he went on trial in a case analysts said was a test for press freedom in Greece.

"The court has ruled that you are innocent," Judge Malia Volika said.

.....Vaxevanis published the list, called the 'Lagarde list', in [i]Hot Doc [/i]magazine which he edits. The list took its name after IMF chief Christine Lagarde who handed it to her Greek counterpart two years ago when she was France's finance minister.

"The Lagarde list" was then believed lost for two years, but resurfaced in early October, when Greek media printed stories regarding other lists containing names of politicians allegedly probed for their financial transactions.....
[/quote]

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8URQKbvyyQ

A good interview.
Warburton "nailed it" about a decade ago, describing the present predicament perfectly, so it is interesting to catch up with him.

Just over half way in, he had an interesting comment:

"When the Euro was being set up, there were seen to be two pathways for it:

+ A Haven for strong countries, with the weak ones forced out, or
+ A Haven for weak countries

Germany could leave in about three years time, and that seems to be where it is headed.
Who knows, Greece might still be part of it."

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Greek tax scandal
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-greek-editor-kostas-vaxevanis-on-tax-evasion-a-865417.html
[quote][b]Police arrested Kostas Vaxevanis at the end of October for publishing the names of hundreds of rich Greeks suspected of tax evasion, only to be released a short time later. He tells SPIEGEL that Greek politicians are complicit in the scam and seek to pass laws to retroactively legalize tax offenses.[/b]

[b]........[/b]
[b]Vaxevanis:[/b] The only problem is that many friends of leading politicians are on the list. Everyone is connected with everyone.

[b]SPIEGEL:[/b] What makes you so sure that this is indeed the so-called "Lagarde List," the collection of names of HSBC account holders that then-French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde handed to Greece in 2010?

[b]Vaxevanis:[/b] Not even our politicians dispute the authenticity of the list. First, we called the owners of shipping companies, who are allowed to hold large quantities of money in offshore accounts. They confirmed the list contents. We spoke with HSBC employees and then called people to see how they reacted. Parliamentarian Giorgos Voulgarakis denied everything even though there is evidence that he failed to declare large sums of money being held in a Swiss bank account. An advisor to Prime Minister Antonis Samaras told us that, as a lawyer, he was managing the money for someone else. There are peculiar networks.

[b]SPIEGEL:[/b] Do you think that the lax approach to tax-code violations will now change?

[b]Vaxevanis:[/b] Germany used the Lagarde List to go after tax evaders, as did France and Spain. But in Greece, the list simply disappeared. Why? Because everyone here is complicit: politicians, business leaders and journalists. Laws are passed here that retroactively legalize violations. Evangelos Venizelos, head of the socialist PASOK party, is an expert in the discipline. But nobody writes about it.
[/quote]

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[color=#333333][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=6][b]EU in fresh trouble as budget summit faces collapse[/b][/size][/font][/color]


[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif][b]AFP - [/b]The European Union looks set for fresh trouble this week as an extraordinary summit called to agree a long-term trillion-euro budget heads for an ugly showdown, possibly even failure.[/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif]Already weakened by three years of economic crisis, the 27-nation bloc of half a billion people [b]faces new trauma at the two-day summit starting Thursday [/b]after weeks of talks that have exposed stark divisions between pro- and anti-austerity nations, as well as between the haves and have-nots.[/font][/color]

[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif][b]"It's a lose-lose summit," said a senior EU diplomat[/b]. "Absolutely no one will leave this summit content if by chance we reach a solution."[/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif]"We don't exclude a breakdown," another diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.[/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif]Europe's leaders begin the talks on the EU's next seven-year budget at 1900 GMT Thursday, with Britain's premier David Cameron in the role of leading spoiler though most governments are putting national interest well above shared concerns.[/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif]"Cameron will come with a big knife to get spending cuts and to defend the British rebate," said an EU diplomat.[/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif]===[/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=arial, sans-serif]/more: [url="http://www.france24.com/en/20121118-eu-fresh-trouble-budget-summit-faces-collapse"]http://www.france24....-faces-collapse[/url][/font][/color]

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[b] [url="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-20/kyle-bass-end-debt-super-cycle"]Kyle Bass On The End Of The Debt Super-Cycle[/url][/b]

[color=#000000][font='Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif][size=1]Submitted by [url="http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden"]Tyler Durden[/url] on 11/20/2012 - 18:00[/size][/font][/color][color=#000000][font='Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif][size=1][url="http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy/term/8300"]Germany[/url] [url="http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy/term/8436"]Japan[/url] [url="http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/kyle-bass-0"]Kyle Bass[/url] [url="http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/kyle-bass"]Kyle Bass[/url] [url="http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/monetary-policy"]Monetary Policy[/url] [url="http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/switzerland"]Switzerland[/url][/size][/font][/color][color=#000000][font='Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif][size=3]
[img]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/11/20121120_bass_0.png[/img]"[b]When you let the politicians run monetary policy, well, that is how it [ends]... All of the ingredients are there [for Japan now] for this vicious cocktail to fall apart[/b]" is how Kyle Bass concludes this broad and succinct recent interview. With total credit market debt-to-GDP globally around 350% (or ~$200 trillion), his thesis remains that many countries will reach their profligate endpoint soon [i](if not already in Greece's case - where investors have already lost 90c on the dollar)[/i]; but that managing around this current evolution is the single-hardest period for investing of the last few decades. The modest Texan notes it is [b]naive to think he can call the end of a 70-year debt-super-cycle with any precision[/b][/size][/font][/color]

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Thanks, BW.
It's certainly worth spending 7 minutes on Kyle Bass

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7Si3XTl6zQ[/media]

"The most difficult time to invest... in the last few decades,"
"We should continue to see yield compression... Maybe negative nominal rates."
"We own subprime credit, and keep our maturities short."

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[b] [url="http://www.cnbc.com/id/49989042"]Hidden Details: Euro States Face Losses on Greek Debt[/url][/b]
[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] CNBC.com - ‎15 minutes ago‎ [/size][/font][/color]

Eurozone governments could be forced to accept losses on their rescue loans to Greece after Monday’s late-night deal to overhaul its bailout failed to agree how to reach new debt targets for the struggling country, according to documents seen by the Financial Times.

Protesters demonstrate in front of the Greek parliament in Athens.
After three gatherings in two weeks, euro zone finance ministers agreed to release a long-delayed 34.4 billion euro ($44.4 billion) aid payment to Athens. But the series of measures agreed, which could relieve Greece of billions of euros in debt by the end of the decade, do not go far enough.
. . .
Euro zone governments postponed further debt relief — amounting to 2.7 percentage points of gross domestic product — to a later date, when Greece begins taking in more money than it spends, not counting interest payments.

[b]Officials said Greece could reach such a “primary budget surplus” by the end of 2014, pushing the additional debt relief to after next year’s German elections[/b]. Because the deal already cuts interest on loans to just 50 basis points above interbank lending rates, any further cuts would almost certainly force losses on to euro zone creditors.

“That is sort of gaining hold, but it’s not fully acknowledged because of the political cycle in Germany,” one senior official involved in the discussions said of losses on bailout loans. “It is there, but it’s there in a way [Angela] Merkel cannot be pinned down that you’ve committed to it.”
=== ===

Kicking the Can... Once again !
The required losses are bound to be a big deal in the German election

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Meanwhile ... one of the more bullish looking charts around. Also sported an outside reversal (bullish engulfing) pattern today:


[b]Banco Santander[/b]

[img]http://i1278.photobucket.com/albums/y518/tapirsanonymous/Screenshot2012-11-29at14613AM.png[/img]



[full disclosure: I'm currently long NYSE:SAN]

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[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]

[b] [url="http://www.scotsman.com/business/economics/surge-in-eurozone-jobless-will-delay-end-of-crisis-warns-mario-draghi-1-2670018"]Surge in eurozone jobless will delay end of crisis warns Mario Draghi[/url][/b]
[/size][/font][/color][color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
Scotsman - ‎29 minutes ago‎ [/size][/font][/color][color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has warned that the single currency bloc is unlikely to emerge from crisis until later next year as unemployment in the region continues to soar.[/size][/font][/color]

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[b][url="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9735780/Autumn-Statement-2012-live.html"]Debt Crisis: Berlusconi says Monti 'too German' - live[/url][/b]
[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] Telegraph.co.uk - ‎22 minutes ago‎ [/size][/font][/color][color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]• Berlusconi says Monti 'too German' [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]• Monti in talks to run for Italian PM [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]• Monti brands market reaction to resignation 'over-dramatised'[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]• EU's Rehn: 'Austerity is working'[/size][/font][/color]

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http://rt.com/news/spain-locksmiths-eviction-suicide-332/
[b] End to evictions in Spain? Locksmiths refuse to help oust owners amid austerity drive[/b]

.... If a house's locks remain unchanged, the evicted family could return whenever they liked, forcing authorities to start another – sometimes months-long – eviction process.

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