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Wanderer

Wanderer's Trading Diary

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Well, my itchy profit-taking fingers couldn't resist selling my riskiest small junior mining stocks.

 

Best of all was LUNA GOLD, returning 600% since this time last year.

SAN GOLD RESOURCES yielded 350%

and ENDEAVOUR MINING yielded a paltry 60% return over the year ;-)

 

I know these could continue rising, but I've earned indecent sums from them and feel that I shouldn't try my luck any further (they are - for me with my broker - difficult stocks to sell, you need to phone and they get a price from Canada with a horrendous spread: and so I wanted to get out while the going was good).

 

I may recycle some into SLW or RGLD if I feel bullish in a day or two: I can trade these two online.

 

I note the pound is bouncing a bit and wonder whether to use the moment to short it again by using the Short GBP:Long USD ETF. Thoughts?

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SAN GOLD RESOURCES yielded 350%

 

I know these could continue rising, but I've earned indecent sums from them and feel that I shouldn't try my luck any further (they are - for me with my broker - difficult stocks to sell, you need to phone and they get a price from Canada with a horrendous spread: and so I wanted to get out while the going was good).

Nothing specific to say other than thats the 2nd time i've seen that stock mentioned today, someone said what a good stock it was.

 

Just rang a bell, after a 350% rise think i'll watch with interest where it goes, but not for buying.

 

b.t.w if you are picking these sort of winners, I think you're modestly down playing your talent :)

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I note the pound is bouncing a bit and wonder whether to use the moment to short it again by using the Short GBP:Long USD ETF. Thoughts?

What's the ticker symbol for that?

 

Looks like you made some good trades there. What currency do you take profits in [wnat's your core currency]?

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What's the ticker symbol for that?

 

LSE:SGBP

 

Collateral is held by Bank of New York Mellon as is the collateral for some of their ETC's as a result of the AIG meltdown scare. Don't know what would happen if BNY bit the dust, perhaps collateral is segregated? As with all ETFs best to check out how well they track what they are supposed too.

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Did a lot of selling yesterday. Sold all my gold at BV and all my PHAG silver. I did this to realise all my capital gains before I return to the UK and also because I've done well recently and don't want to see everything 'slip back' by waiting too long to sell - as has happened previously.

 

I've now gone and bought a proxy for 2/3 of the gold as a way of staying in the game and reducing sterling exposure, but I've stopped it (don't usually do this) to limit losses.

 

Upshot: my upside is now limited (although I'm short sterling and the US markets) but my downside is pretty secure too, so I know I can go back to the UK and buy a house if I want to do so without worrying about Mr Bank. Thank you GEI!

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"Did a lot of selling yesterday."

Your timing could prove good.

 

..double post. I hope you dont mind, W.

 

FTSE's rally could stop here - near 5,600

 

zzzzk.gif

 

In edit:

Late in Wednesday's trading FTSE did pop up over the Orange line ... update

001xq.gif

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Well, my proxy gold was stopped out and so I'm sitting with virtually no shares and all cash (sterling). I've a short position on the indices equivalent to about 10% of this pile plus a short position on sterling equivalent to a further 10%. Otherwise I'm pretty much all cash. I feel (please please!) that the market MUST turn soon. And I know I'll never get the timing right, but every day the markets continue up hurts! There was another merit to cashing in - ie settling all my gains overseas before I return to the UK so that I don't pay CGT. That is worth 18%!

 

I guess I'm now going to sit and probably I'll continue to build my short positions gradually, although I don't want to overdo it. - I'm taking Catflap et al's cautions with seriousness (PS - Thank you Catflap for being here and adding to the variety of views: we are a better forum for your civilised bullishness here!).

 

Must keep reminding self: have far more cash in sterling now than I ever anticipated 3 or 4 or even 1 year ago; can buy much nicer house than ever before. All good! Don't worry about chasing every last cent....

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I've now completed my re-jigging and have realised all my capital gains. I only carry capital losses now. I can thus begin re-investing as and where I want and am open to hearing the views of any readers out there (Hello!! Is there anybody out there??? :-) )

 

My portfolio stands at:

 

Cash (Mostly sterling, but some Dollars and Euros - perhaps 10% of each) - 84%

Short Sterling ETF - 2%

Gold shares - 2%

Short Equities - 12%.

 

My current thought is that my first priority may be to diversify away from pounds - either through a gold proxy or a short-pound ETF.

I might also consider re-establishing a gold position.

 

I'm up about 4.5% since I started the diary, so am reasonably pleased, especially as I've realised all these gains and so eliminated my tax exposure prior to return to the UK.

 

All the above is subject to whether we can find a rental house in our target village in Kent/West Sussex or whether we end up buying (in which case a whole chunk will go into property).

 

Wanderer

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Just a suggestion, why not think about staying long on a certain percentage of gold. I think it makes sense to think of it as a currency and that way any currency concerns you have about the pound will be covered. Of course, if you are looking to buy property in Britland then it makes sense to be in pounds.

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Thanks RH. I do still have a few month's salary tucked away in physical but have sold out my BV etc for the time being.

 

I've taken steps to close my CFD account. This thread is partly about psychology and the way trading affects you. I've decided that I'm happier without the CFD account. It takes up most of my thinking even though the amounts involved are small (before leverage). I've not been very successful on it and so I've decided to avoid leverage and stick with investing only what I have so that I can never have a position liquidated under my nose due to margin issues.

 

I remain much as last week but have increased my sterling short to good effect. I've also slightly increased my FTSE short, but less successfully...

 

My next purchase is likely to be VXX.

 

I'm ready to get back into gold if we definitively decide not to buy a house for a couple of years - I want to be able to sit out a dive in gold prices.

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I'm ready to get back into gold if we definitively decide not to buy a house for a couple of years - I want to be able to sit out a dive in gold prices.

Check out the charts for the last dips in gold. In 2008, when gold dipped [in dollars] the Sterling price just kept going up [sterling weakened also]. The same happened recently when gold came off $1200. Consider that IF you were waiting to buy a sizeable gold position on a decent dip, you may have to be waiitng in dollars.

 

Or, perhaps you're expecting the pound to strengthen shortly. :)

 

 

But then VXX is a dollar denominated instrument which should move contrary to gold.

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Hi All,

 

A month away on holidays and other stuff.

 

My portfolio is currently:

 

80% cash (of which 80% sterling)

7% pound short/dollar long ETF

12% S&P and FTSE short ETFs

1% a duff 'minor miner' that might one day explode...

And a little 'rainy day' physical G+S 'under the mattress'

 

I've put my CFD account to sleep. I'm now holding only capital losses (all the ETFs above are in the red and so I'm down a bit from my late Feb peak) and no capital gains. My previous liquidations have taken all my profits off the table.

 

I'm about to start re-investing, conscious that the best time to do this might be ahead of the UK election/final resolution of the Greek Bond crisis, but also wary of the uncertainty involved.

 

Distilled thoughts on a post-card welcome. I'm quite tempted to increase my (in-loss) ETFs shorting the GBP and the major stock markets. I have no faith in the rally of the GBP over the last few days or the continued gravity-defying rise of the stock markets. I've mixed views on gold - it could shoot up, but a Greek crisis might prompt another round of deleveraging and profit taking before this happens.

 

More widely, I'm returning to the UK soon and will probably rent a house. IF (and only if - no need to warn me it isn't a good time to buy), would people advise me to:

 

- buy a house cash and live in it - with no mortgage but no savings either;

- take a mortgage (fixed rate - 10 or 25 years) based on my salary and invest the mortgage into stocks/gold etc., paying the mortgage from my (safe) salary; or

- a new idea: go to a private bank and get them to lend me money to buy a house based on the collateral of my cash/investments. The logic being I'd use the growth of these investments (including no doubt some UK or other bonds to provide some 'risk free' undergirding) to pay the interest on the house loan, thus getting on the housing ladder (OK, I take the point about timing) whilst keeping my capital intact for the future.

 

A good and sensible friend (in many ways) was advocating the 3rd option to me on holiday. He has done it and it has worked well for him. What do folk think? It strikes me as the potentially best and worst option...

 

Wanderer

 

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Hi All,

 

A month away on holidays and other stuff.

 

My portfolio is currently:

 

80% cash (of which 80% sterling)

7% pound short/dollar long ETF

12% S&P and FTSE short ETFs

1% a duff 'minor miner' that might one day explode...

And a little 'rainy day' physical G+S 'under the mattress'

 

I've put my CFD account to sleep. I'm now holding only capital losses (all the ETFs above are in the red and so I'm down a bit from my late Feb peak) and no capital gains. My previous liquidations have taken all my profits off the table.

 

I'm about to start re-investing, conscious that the best time to do this might be ahead of the UK election/final resolution of the Greek Bond crisis, but also wary of the uncertainty involved.

 

Distilled thoughts on a post-card welcome. I'm quite tempted to increase my (in-loss) ETFs shorting the GBP and the major stock markets. I have no faith in the rally of the GBP over the last few days or the continued gravity-defying rise of the stock markets. I've mixed views on gold - it could shoot up, but a Greek crisis might prompt another round of deleveraging and profit taking before this happens.

 

More widely, I'm returning to the UK soon and will probably rent a house. IF (and only if - no need to warn me it isn't a good time to buy), would people advise me to:

 

- buy a house cash and live in it - with no mortgage but no savings either;

- take a mortgage (fixed rate - 10 or 25 years) based on my salary and invest the mortgage into stocks/gold etc., paying the mortgage from my (safe) salary; or

- a new idea: go to a private bank and get them to lend me money to buy a house based on the collateral of my cash/investments. The logic being I'd use the growth of these investments (including no doubt some UK or other bonds to provide some 'risk free' undergirding) to pay the interest on the house loan, thus getting on the housing ladder (OK, I take the point about timing) whilst keeping my capital intact for the future.

 

A good and sensible friend (in many ways) was advocating the 3rd option to me on holiday. He has done it and it has worked well for him. What do folk think? It strikes me as the potentially best and worst option...

 

Wanderer

 

Now that should be a bit better?

 

As for your 3rd option, do you really feel that confident of trading success? Think about that my only advice. Whats that old maxim, never invest/gamble more than you can afford to lose?

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Now that should be a bit better?

 

As for your 3rd option, do you really feel that confident of trading success? Think about that my only advice. Whats that old maxim, never invest/gamble more than you can afford to lose?

 

Reminds me of the 'Names' who lost 'everything'-house and home-when Lloyds Insurance went under in the 1980s.

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[/b]

 

Reminds me of the 'Names' who lost 'everything'-house and home-when Lloyds Insurance went under in the 1980s.

 

Ah but they were sold a supposedly safe investment as a tax dodge that turned out to be a bit of a ponzi

 

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OK. Did a bit of investing before the election so as to prepare myself for a hung parliament.

 

Bought lots of GBS (Gold Bullion Securities), PHAG (Physically Allocated Silver - I know, I know - it was only as a short term vehicle), a modest helping of VXX, some SLW, RGLD, some USD2 (a short-GBP, long USD ETF) and some XUKS (short FTSE ETF). It has all gone well, VXX in particular was a great buy I should have added more of. Now very tempted to cash the lot in as am at new GBP highs (again, to take the profit before my return to the UK). But markets now closed in UK and can't do that. Alternately, tempted to put all remaining Sterling into GBS with a tight-ish stop on the off chance that every thing gets whisked away in a panic next week!

 

Will see how we go over the weekend.

 

Good news is that the housing market appears to be clearly turning all of a sudden and now feel much better about renting upon re-entry to UK. Will have to work out how much I balance potential growth (e.g. Gold/Silver) against liquidity and capital guarantees once I invest upon my return.

 

That zip up and down on the S&P yesterday was very exciting! Could have made or lost a lot of money doing the right/wrong thing there....

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OK. Did a bit of investing before the election so as to prepare myself for a hung parliament.

 

Bought lots of GBS (Gold Bullion Securities), PHAG (Physically Allocated Silver - I know, I know - it was only as a short term vehicle), a modest helping of VXX, some SLW, RGLD, some USD2 (a short-GBP, long USD ETF) and some XUKS (short FTSE ETF). It has all gone well, VXX in particular was a great buy I should have added more of. Now very tempted to cash the lot in as am at new GBP highs (again, to take the profit before my return to the UK). But markets now closed in UK and can't do that. Alternately, tempted to put all remaining Sterling into GBS with a tight-ish stop on the off chance that every thing gets whisked away in a panic next week!

 

Will see how we go over the weekend.

 

Good news is that the housing market appears to be clearly turning all of a sudden and now feel much better about renting upon re-entry to UK. Will have to work out how much I balance potential growth (e.g. Gold/Silver) against liquidity and capital guarantees once I invest upon my return.

 

That zip up and down on the S&P yesterday was very exciting! Could have made or lost a lot of money doing the right/wrong thing there....

Good on ya for buying VXX! Good to see it well co-related to VIX and performing how it promised to in the event of market turmoil. I didn't get in... ended up buying yet more gold. My concern was whether VXX might go lower... and I could buy cheaper [so much for picking bottoms huh], but also how it would end up performing not against dollars but gold [primary aim is to accumulate gold]. My thought was that if it spiked badly enough, gold also might spike along with it... therefore I may as well just buy gold.

 

Well,we got the answer, VXX has spiked nicely in both dollar and gold terms. And both gold and dollar have themselves strengthened against other currencies. Though there had been a lot of doubt expressed about the VXX instrument, it has shown to work.

 

So is this the big one? Will markets continue to deleverage and VIX/ VXX continue to spike. If it's not, and things normalize to a certain extent over the next few months, I'll look to buy VXX. As it is, I'm glad I bought more gold.

 

My other speculative interest is in silver. I thought silver would sell off more here [it may yet] and was looking to buy with dollar on the dip. This was another reason I held of from VXX.

 

So when you selling it? ... and what for?... Not pounds.. surely! ;)

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Hello,

 

Sold out all my FTSE shorts, pound shorts and gold (GBS) today to crystallise v.low 5 figure gain.

 

I then re-loaded on pound shorts (more than before - probably not so wise if I'd been alert to the progress of Lib-Con talks) and then GBS (more). Yet to reload on FTSE shorts.

 

Why did I do this? To crystalise gains before I return to the UK. I'm now holding only losses and so CGT will relate to these, not gains made overseas. I'm lucky in this regard, but being aware of CGT law is going to be very important soon - I suspect we'll see CGT up under any future government - at least to the lower rate of income tax.

 

Feel the Lib-Con deal will be a good one for a while. I'm naturally LD-ish and like what I'm seeing. It feels sturdy. The big concern for LDers is, of course, where things get to on AV or wider political reform. But Cameron seems to have been remarkably constructive and Nick was probably only seeking more from the Tories by chatting to Labour.

 

I might wait a few days before I reload my FTSE shorts. And I'll also be buying some more sovereigns for the stash.

 

Wanderer

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Still going well. Thinking of selling and re-loading again. Volatility generally seems to be increasing.

 

Got those few sovs. Bought some more SLW. ANd a bunch of PHAG. Unusually for me I set a stop with the PHAG and that got pinged today. No worries. I'd rather take a small loss with silver than a big one. Still, I was lazy in not moving the stop up once the silver began going up.

 

I'm still trying to get my head around everything that is going on in the Euro zone and the UK.

 

I@ve been short the pound since 1.54 a few weeks ago and am now wondering whether I should go neutral as the drop has been sharp and we might we a bounce.

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...

I@ve been short the pound since 1.54 a few weeks ago and am now wondering whether I should go neutral as the drop has been sharp and we might we a bounce.

I have been short with you but since 1.53, I am looking for the drop to continue until 1.40 - 1.39 but I will sell a half at 1.41 and then the rest when it bounces

 

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Evening all,

 

I've had a busy day. I'm following Dr B's analysis that Gold may be due a pause here.

 

I sold out my remaining BV holding into Dollars (this represented 20% or so of my 'paper' gold).

 

I sold out my GBS in its entirety (the other 80%) but bought them back later in the day at a small loss. I did this to 'capture' my Capital Gains from the large GBS investment I made a couple of weeks ago (itself a re-purchase from an earlier buy).

 

I sold out my USD2 ETF (short GBP, long USD) at a good profit to capture capital gains again. I then re-bought it later in the day at a profit that balanced the small lost made on my day's GBS trading (above).

 

This way I've 'rebooted' my two best recent investments for CGT purposes when I return to the UK.

 

I also added 30% to my holding of VXX/VIX - done by phone through my broker. That is up nicely again today.

 

I then doubled my XUKS short FTSE ETF. Again, that is off and away nicely today.

 

New sterling high.

 

I'm slightly troubled by Sterling's huge drop this a.m. (it recovered since). I can't think of any mechanism for trading out of hours except for on my dormant CFD account - but I've learned that there be dragons....

 

I'm somewhat amazed that Shanghai's 5% drop didn't impact more on European or US markets - Shanghai is off nearly 30% this year and the rest of the world isn't citing that as a factor.

 

I'm seriously considering re-investing the last set of paper gold profits in some (more) sovereigns - I think there is some poetry in doing this.

 

Pausing to consider next steps. Still have more sterling than I'd like, but I suspect it is due a bounce soon.

 

Wanderer

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This being a global crisis have you considered shorting one of the US indices instead of the FTSE, your investment is then in USDs? Double wammy so to speak.

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Bother, wish I'd sold my gold yesterday and kept it sold!!!!! Could have bought back today for a month's wages less. Grr.

 

Alas.

 

Yes, GTG, I did think about doing what you suggest and hold some Short S&P. The problem for me is that I'm GMT+4 so it isn't always easy to be around for the US markets (often in bed!). And of course if sterling strengthens and the S&P rises you get stuffed. I was underwater on my S&P shorts for weeks.

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Just sold my VXX. 40% up in a 10 day stretch, so mustn't grumble! ALSO sold my short S&P. I'm tempted to agree that without a complete collapse, the markets might bounce for a day or two now before pausing for new direction. Absolutely nothing to justify this view other than the general observation that nothing straight lines.

 

On the down side, my SLW and RGLD have been hammered the last two days, particularly SLW.

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Morning all,

 

Sensing we are near a turn, and conscious I've done very well of late and hit new sterling highs (so what you say? - sterling is worth less - fair point), I have, in one of my occasional 'clearances' just sold everything in my portfolio.

 

I know that sounds odd but it feels good to take profits and consolidate, bank my capital gains and take a moment to consider where I think things are heading next and then invest appropriately.

 

If we get a good rally in the markets for here, I'll be looking to make a much bigger investment in VIX/VXX as it falls. This ETF seems to function akin to a leveraged inverse ETF but without the time-decay factor. So I like it.

 

Wanderer

 

 

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