Jump to content
romans holiday

Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold

Recommended Posts

Silver quickly up to 35. Could get interesting here. A good chance silver still needs more time here to consolidate though.

 

That said, always the chance of missing this trade though not too concerned. It's just a hedging trade. With plenty of core gold and a bit of silver.... I'll never feel like I "missed the bus" should the price continue to climb.

 

Of course, given the aim on this trade is to increase dollars not silver, it wouldn't matter to buy at a higher price; the prime factor here is to give silver some time to find its base. Once it looks well consolidated, buy [AGQ]..... and then sell once it spikes to new levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dollar up. Silver down to 31... and continuing to look vulnerable.

 

A good buying/ trading signal for silver could be when gold retraces to its long term trend line, which is around 1650 at the moment. A decent sized Dollar trading account [the "hedge"] still ear-marked to buy silver in the 20s.... in order to sell in the 100s.... may take a good couple of years to reach that target.

 

No rush, could still take a couple more months to consolidate. Still planning on using the double leveraged ETF AGQ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dollar up. Silver down to 31... and continuing to look vulnerable.

 

A good buying/ trading signal for silver could be when gold retraces to its long term trend line, which is around 1650 at the moment. A decent sized Dollar trading account [the "hedge"] still ear-marked to buy silver in the 20s.... in order to sell in the 100s.... may take a good couple of years to reach that target.

 

No rush, could still take a couple more months to consolidate. Still planning on using the double leveraged ETF AGQ.

 

1992 - present (log);

 

Silver92-11.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1992 - present (log);

 

Silver92-11.png

2008 consolidation in silver took a good 9 odd months. Will look to buy heavily very shortly...in the next month or two as it will match timewise the previous consolidation period. A comparable entry point to the previous dip would be $25 [50% down]. Doubt whether it will go that low, so will look at entering in the upper 20s.... will only need one more step down to meet that target. Obviously, will not be able to get the exact bottom [most who look for that miss it] so expect silver to go a bit lower once it is bought. It's no great concern that silver will go lower in the short term if there's a good chance it will spike towards 100 sometime over the next couple of years. The post-2008 rise, on the log chart, will then be the pattern to watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi RH, this is from the "50-ish peak in Silver thread"...

 

 

Silver futures 2008 - present

Screenshot2011-04-23at101813.png

 

Looking closer at March 2008, after the sharp rise in silver it corrected 22% within 4 days from the high. If it tags $48.70 and does something similar it would come back to $38.

 

 

 

Silver futures

Screenshot2011-04-23at102349.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi RH, this is from the "50-ish peak in Silver thread"...

Yep, good call that one. The general pattern between the two silver slumps is quite similiar. Will stick to the chart for this buy/ trade, where around the $25 [50% down] looks a good entry point. Present concerns about the Euro zone could drag silver down that far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im liking the look of low 20's 20-21.5 area... fingers crossed

Hmmm, I hear what you're saying. If the markets were subject to another bout of forced deleveraging such as a "Lehman's event" then yes, it could easily go that low. The break up of the Euro zone could provide such a catalyst. But will that happen.... and within the next couple of months?

 

Even down to just 25 equates with the 50% slump seen in 2008.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm, I hear what you're saying. If the markets were subject to another bout of forced deleveraging such as a "Lehman's event" then yes, it could easily go that low. The break up of the Euro zone could provide such a catalyst. But will that happen.... and within the next couple of months?

 

Even down to just 25 equates with the 50% slump seen in 2008.

 

Finding yours and P.D's chart musings very interesting, one thing I will say for myself (and no offence to Chazza), if in 2 years it's off to the races with $100 targets etc. Buying anywhere in the mid to high 20's is less important than sweating the small stuff of being in lower.

 

For me only a short term trader need be concerned with a sub 25c entry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finding yours and P.D's chart musings very interesting, one thing I will say for myself (and no offence to Chazza), if in 2 years it's off to the races with $100 targets etc. Buying anywhere in the mid to high 20's is less important than sweating the small stuff of being in lower.

 

For me only a short term trader need be concerned with a sub 25c entry.

Yes, the largish [by most standards] core bullion position bought a few years ago help to make this trade "sweat-free". Because of that core buy and hold position, my aim with this trade is to increase dollars not silver.

 

As you say, if you think bullion is in a long term up trend, one need not trifle too much about the entry point.

 

This trade is only relatively sweat-free. It will be a large trade because my only trade... around 10% of my worth. Why so large? Because I think the risk/ reward ratio is a very good one. If silver spikes to 100 sometime in the next few years... and I use SGQ, and I sell, it would more than double my net worth. The trade is sweat free in terms of "time-free" also. Being a longer term "position" trade, I won't be needing to watch markets 24/7.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should silver spike down just briefly, a heavy buy order has been placed for AGQ at 40.

sc-4.png

My partner has been making money selling AGQ puts, when SLV approaches the 377d MA

 

I picked up some SLV Jan.$27 calls at $4.40 on Friday, with SLV near $30.27

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You might like this chart, RH:

This "fix" might be another 2-day wonder - so suggests VIX

 

spy2.gif

 

The gap down in VIX (and gap up in SPX) looks much like what we saw back in late October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You might like this chart, RH:

Yes, certainly no rush to buy here. Silver only up to 32. I'd look at it again if it were to go through 35, which looks like solid resistance. But still think will head below 30.

 

silvvvv.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Silver at 31. Would love to see one more push lower into the high 20s. Ideally, another round of forced deleveraging would help the trade, which could see silver down to 25, and gold to 1500. If that did occur, I think they'll bounce back quickly akin to 2008. But not sure if we'll see that kind of slump, so am still targeting the high 20 range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Silver finally down into the 20s, my target buying zone. AGQ down to 46, and still have a buy order on at 40 should silver plunge further.

 

Starting to get an itchy trigger finger, but think I'll hold off for another week or so.

 

aggga.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Silver finally down into the 20s, my target buying zone. AGQ down to 46, and still have a buy order on at 40 should silver plunge further.

 

Starting to get an itchy trigger finger, but think I'll hold off for another week or so.

 

 

LSIL has now twice breached 40, only to scramble back over - that is keeping my itchy fingers in my pockets at the minute.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LSIL has now twice breached 40, only to scramble back over - that is keeping my itchy fingers in my pockets at the minute.

I looked for that instrument on stockcharts, but couldn't find it. I'm guessing it's similair to AGQ. Are you planning on putting a large trade on?

 

You'd be unbelievably lucky to buy at the exact bottom, and as the saying goes most miss the trade by waiting for the last 5-10%. Silver has shown what she's capable of, and the buying point will probably be when all the news is about how the bull market in metals is over. Best to then ignore the daily news and focus solely on the chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I looked for that instrument on stockcharts, but couldn't find it. I'm guessing it's similair to AGQ. Are you planning on putting a large trade on?

 

You'd be unbelievably lucky to buy at the exact bottom, and as the saying goes most miss the trade by waiting for the last 5-10%. Silver has shown what she's capable of, and the buying point will probably be when all the news is about how the bull market in metals is over. Best to then ignore the daily news and focus solely on the chart.

 

LSIL http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/lev/etfs_silver_le.asp

 

Not so much waiting for the last 5-10%, more waiting for trend reverse, even if miss first 5-10% of rise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

agqbought.png

 

Target of 40 hit. Now I'm an all paid up bonafide member of the trading community. Irony is I'm also "all in" on precious metals now. :rolleyes: If/ when silver goes through $100, will be quick to sell AGQ back to US dollars.

 

May swap a bit of gold bullion lying about for another last purchase of silver if it gets down to 25.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

May I add that LSIL finally breached 40 support it had been clinging to(and bouncing off), currently levitating around the 35 mark.

 

Most unusually for me, i'm still resisting the urge to jump at the risk/reward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

May I add that LSIL finally breached 40 support it had been clinging to(and bouncing off), currently levitating around the 35 mark.

 

Most unusually for me, i'm still resisting the urge to jump at the risk/reward.

Do you have a target in mind? The lower it goes, the more bearish all will be on silver. The risk is you'd never buy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×