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GEI market thoughts - February 2010

GEI market sentiment  

39 members have voted

  1. 1. Are you bullish or bearish the stock market this month

    • Very bullish
      0
    • Bullish
      4
    • Neutral
      11
    • Bearish
      21
    • Very Bearish
      4
  2. 2. Are you bullish or bearish gold this month

    • Very bullish
      1
    • Bullish
      9
    • Neutral
      15
    • Bearish
      16
    • Very bearish
      0
  3. 3. Are you bullish or bearish the dollar this month

    • Very bullish
      1
    • Bullish
      16
    • Neutral
      17
    • Bearish
      4
    • Very bearish
      1


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THIS IS JUST A TEST EXAMPLE, as requested by DrBubb

 

Comments welcome

 

 

Similar to DrBubbs Trading Diary but without the trades, just market thoughts - allowing everyone (bulls and bears) to discuss the market direction without too much bullish or bearish bias. Perhaps maybe a few different people could kick-off the first post each month with what they see as long as the poll is kept exactly the same (the above is just my example).

 

Eg. post #1 (February, 2010) DrBubb

 

post #1 (March, 2010) Catflap

 

post #1 (April, 2010) someone else

 

post #1 (May, 2010) someone else

 

etc

 

 

Hopefully we might (as a group of bulls and bears) get a better understanding of where we are going - it would be great if we could achieve this without having to reference too many outside 'experts' who often turn out to be worse than us!. Bulls need to see when the bears are right and visa versa - arguments should use technical analysis (posting charts to emphasise your pov) or fundamental analysis (posting facts and figures) or a combination of the two.

 

The poll will be useful (if enough GEI members take it) since it could help tell us when a turn might be near, as in the dollar a few weeks back when almost everyone was bearish - this will be the GEI market sentiment if it works!.

 

 

My first thought:

 

I think we should state a timespan for the poll when asking if you are bullish or bearish - you can be bullish equities short term (the next few months) but very bearish the next 3 years. How is it best to do a poll?...... since this would be done every month then I think the question has to be how bullish or bearish are you for this month (questions ammended).

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Bearish on gold and UK stocks, it’s the month before the majority of company accounts are finalised as most run April to March. UK Directors need to return their interest free loans to their companies or pay the extra tax.

 

Bullish on $, the € is not doing very well, over the year the £ needs to devalue another 10%-20% or raise interest rates and the BoE dare not do that too quickly. If import prices go up then it may have to do both, especially if it stops buying what it prints. The £ will find it hard to devalue against the € so it has to devalue against the $ which will help to push it up from the UK perspective at least.

 

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For Feb:

 

SM: bearish. Looks overdue for some downside.

 

Gold: neutral. I expect further correction from here but it may recover in Feb.

 

UDS index: neutral

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Good idea.

Thanks for starting the thread

 

I am bearish on stocks, but they are getting oversold so fast, so we may see a good bounce very soon.

I am expecting Gold to follow stocks for a while, and then eventually "break ranks" and behave more positively.

 

I am watch Ratios of GLD-to-CYC, and GDX-to-SPX, etc to see when that might be happening

 

It will also be interesting to see if Gold and Gold stocks hold better than Oil and Oil stocks

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Will wait to see what happens with Bernanke, might see the market correct just to ensure they get the printer in chief back in.

 

Overall bearish fiat, credit, sovereign debt.

 

Bullish Nikkei this year and onwards bearish JGB. Just need to get some good entry points and build positions.

 

 

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Great idea for a thread!

 

I'm bearish stocks, and with the exception of there being a push up on S&P etc giving us some lower highs, I think they'll go lower from here.

I'm bullish physical Gold and will be buying some now; will get some more later this year since I think commodities in general will fall more.

 

I'm bullish China over the medium term 1-2 yrs, and want to be at least 50% in Chinese stocks by end of year.

 

That's my novice view from the daily FA/TA, news etc.

It's useful to have a view on what the likely direction might be, but I want the price/trend/FA to drive my decision making........

 

MunsterK

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Well the poll looks a hit given this was just a test example I expected to sink to the bottom!. I think it's good though as it's giving an indication about how we feel as a group and giving a platform for more people to post their thoughts about what they see ahead.

 

Should the poll be any different or is it fine the way it is?

 

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Well the poll looks a hit given this was just a test example I expected to sink to the bottom!. I think it's good though as it's giving an indication about how we feel as a group and giving a platform for more people to post their thoughts about what they see ahead.

 

Should the poll be any different or is it fine the way it is?

just a suggestion

- I would ask folks where they think the recovery will come from, China alone, BRIC, US, EUROPE; IMHO it will come from the US[eventually] given the size of the US economy.

- I'm reading this right now fyi ; http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/emerged-markets.html

 

MunsterK

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just a suggestion

- I would ask folks where they think the recovery will come from, China alone, BRIC, US, EUROPE; IMHO it will come from the US[eventually] given the size of the US economy.

MunsterK

Actually, I think "troubles in China" and tightening there, may be an important factor leading the market lower

 

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