World Stock Markets 2010

[No6]

Options Indicate 3% S&P 500 Retreat as VIX Advances

 

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Traders are speculating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall as much as 3 percent, according to options bets on the benchmark gauge for stock market volatility during the last two days.

 

Wagers that the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index will jump 46 percent to 32.5 were the most-active contract, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A surge to that level may herald a decline to about 1082 for the S&P 500, said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab & Co. The stock gauge slipped 2.9 percent to 1,116.48 since Jan. 20, while the VIX advanced 27 percent to 22.27, the biggest two- day gain since November 2008.

 

“In the next few days, we’re going to see more volatility,” Frederick said in an interview from Austin, Texas. “The level of complacency earlier was simply too low. A single- day move from 25 to 30 on the VIX could easily mean a 3 percent drop in the market.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a99U3glsgLps

[No6]

Bear.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&...jWqO6HpkOYE.asf

 

Bull.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=adv...y9qIZlFNAJg.asf

[No6]

Some are expecting the drop to be over.

 

U.S. Rebound

 

The S&P 500 rebounded today from its biggest three-day decline since March, when its rally of as much as 70 percent began. The index is valued at about 14.2 times the combined operating earnings forecast for its companies this year. More than 130 companies in the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities are scheduled to release results this week. A record nine-quarter earnings slump is projected to have ended in the fourth quarter with a 73 percent increase in S&P 500 profits.

 

“We believe recent market weakness is a buying opportunity,” Credit Suisse Group AG analysts led by Andrew Garthwaite in London wrote in a note. “Both earnings revisions and economic surprises remain positive.”

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...pPu8s&pos=4

[No6]

Secondary Correction

 

By Colin Twiggs

January 25, 2010 3:00 a.m. ET (7:00 p.m. AET)

 

Global markets appear headed for a secondary correction, with only Japan and South Korea showing any resilience. All others reviewed display a large bearish divergence on (13-week) Twiggs Money Flow. And the Hang Seng Index signals a primary down-trend, warning of further weakness in China.

 

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdia...-25_markets.php

[No6]

S&P 500 Is on ‘Precipice,’ May Extend Drop

 

The S&P 500 closed at 1,092.17 yesterday, 5 percent below the 15-month high of 1,150.23 on Jan. 19. If the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities breaches the level at 1,087 to 1,091, the next support is at 1,040, 4.8 percent below yesterday’s close, according to Mint’s Geoff Wilkinson.

 

“We now stand on the edge of a proverbial precipice,” Wilkinson, who is based in London, wrote in a note to clients today. Investors who are betting that the market will rally might get “stranded by the sheer pace of the recent declines and, with the lack of any ‘get out of jail free’ subsequent recovery, start to reach for the ‘panic’ button.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aulBQGy08VKs

[No6]

FTSE100 testing and holding the 5200 support line.

 

 

Keep an eye out on that lower forth trend line. I started that line back in March on the chart below, which was effectively the turning point. This was the last time the FTSE had just had a big move down and the move, especially on the Bollinger Bands looks similar to now.

 

[No6]

So far today the news has failed to cheer up the markets.

 

Bloomberg headlines.

 

•Ford Reports $2.7 Billion Annual Profit After Record Loss, Beats Estimates

 

•Durable-Goods Orders in U.S. Gain More Than Forecast Excluding Transport

 

•Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to 470,000; Total Benefit Rolls Shrink

 

•Fed Declares Recovery for First Time, Preparing Ground for End to Stimulus

 

•Eastman Kodak Surges After Fourth-Quarter Profit Tops Analysts' Estimates

 

Techs down;

 

Qualcomm (QCOM 41.28, -5.92, -12.54%) tumbled nearly 9% on a cut sales outlook, and Nokia rival Motorola (MOT 6.67, -0.73, -9.85%) dropped on a worse-than-forecast quarter.

[No6]

Ben's re-election. Market will probably tank if he doesn't get the vote.

 

Confirmation Vote

 

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who faces a procedural vote in the Senate on his confirmation for a second term today, is looking for signs that the return to economic growth is accompanied by the prospect of stronger hiring and an increase in credit to people and businesses.

 

The Senate plans to vote on limiting debate and preventing lawmakers from blocking a vote on Bernanke’s nomination. As of yesterday, 50 senators said they would vote for or were inclined to support Bernanke, while 22 were opposed, according to a tally by Bloomberg News.

 

The U.S. unemployment rate held at 10 percent in December, while consumer credit dropped a record $17.5 billion in November.

 

“Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate, but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit,” the Fed said in its statement.

 

Employers “remain reluctant to add to payrolls,” and bank lending “continues to contract,” the FOMC said.

 

Verizon Communications Inc., coping with subscriber losses at its fixed-line phone business, said this week it will cut about 13,000 jobs at the division this year. Home Depot Inc., the world’s largest home-improvement retailer, said it will pare 1,000 U.S. jobs.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206..._bz_o&pos=4

[No6]

Looks like key support areas on the Dow are being tested.

 

[No6]

Will this cheer up the markets enought to turn them around?

 

Economy in U.S. Grew at 5.7% Pace, Most in Six Years

 

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The economy in the U.S. expanded in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years as factories cranked up assembly lines and companies increased investment in equipment and software.

 

The 5.7 percent increase in gross domestic product, which exceeded the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, marked the best performance since the third quarter of 2003, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Efforts to rebuild depleted inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to GDP, the most in two decades.

 

Manufacturers such as Intel Corp. may keep leading the recovery as increasing sales prompt companies to restock. A slowdown in consumer spending last quarter is a reminder that 10 percent unemployment is causing Americans to hold back, one reason why the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates low and the Obama administration is proposing new plans to create jobs.

 

“The economy is still healing and improving,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who projected a 5.6 percent gain in GDP. “I think this is a sustainable recovery.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...kgBlc&pos=1

[John Doe]

Will this cheer up the markets enought to turn them around?

Not for long, now they think it's too good to be true

 

http://podcast.mktw.net/audio/20100129/mst...0129manning.mp3

 

 

[No6]

Wonder if european markets will hold up this year?

 

German industry bullish on 2010 recovery

 

By Daniel Schäfer in Frankfurt

 

Germany’s largest industrial companies are readying themselves for a surprisingly strong business rebound this year after rising demand from emerging markets kick-started revenue growth in recent months.

 

Executives from a broad range of sectors have regained confidence and the willingness to spend money on investments and acquisitions, according to research based on a Cheuvreux conference that involved more than 100 companies.

 

“German managers show surprising optimism and bullishness. 2010 is set to be a year of strong recovery for many companies,” said Bernd Laux, head of German equity research at Cheuvreux, the French financial services group.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/516d06f8-0f57-11...144feabdc0.html

[No6]

China buying opportunity or bust on the horizon?

 

Tightening fears bring China buy opportunities

 

By Richard Wong

 

Published: February 1 2010 15:53 | Last updated: February 1 2010 15:53

 

Although the Chinese market rallied by about 60 per cent in 2009, it lagged the stronger performances of the other large emerging markets such as Brazil (121 per cent), Russia (100 per cent) and India (101 per cent).

 

As such, the Chinese market offers further upside potential and could catch up with the gains of the other markets this year. Trading at around 13.5 times forecast 2010 earnings, projected to grow by about 20 per cent, the valuation of H shares (Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong) or red chips (Chinese companies incorporated outside the mainland but listed in Hong Kong) remains attractive.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f8aac67a-0f44-11...144feabdc0.html

[No6]

Q and A on China and Markets: Anthony Bolton

 

Does that mean a renewed bear market, as many are predicting?

 

I don’t think the bull market is about to end, but it might have a big pause. We haven’t had a big pause yet, so as the leadership changes, we could have a three month or so of setback and consolidation in markets before the next stage. In this lower growth environment, governments are going to be very slow to exit their support measures. I think that markets can take some rise in interest rates. I don’t think the first rise would kill the bull market, but if we then get into a succession of interest rate rises, at some stage that will stop the bull market. I suspect that is a 2011 rather than a 2010 story.

 

http://www.independent-investor.com/2010/0...bout-china.html

[No6]

Comprehensive analysis that sees a bull market ahead.

 

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast For 2010.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16948.html

[No6]

Amidst the gloom today.

 

Key downside support levels include 10,050 for the Dow, 1,070 for the S&P, 1,740 for the NASDAQ, 5,100 for the FTSE, and 640 for the 60.

 

Corporate News

 

Another day, another round of positive earnings reports. Companies that beat the street overnight and this morning include:

 

United Parcel Service (UPS $0.75 vs street $0.74).

DR Horton (DHI $0.56 vs street ($0.14))

Cummins (CMI $1.36 vs street $0.78)

Emerson Electric (EMR $0.56 vs street $0.42)

Hershey (HSY $0.63 vs street $0.60)

Archer Daniels (ADM $0.88 vs street $0.72)

Dow Chemical ($0.18 vs street $0.11)

Whirlpool (WHR $1.64 vs street $1.32)

 

http://www.digitallook.com/dl/news/story/3...ername=&ac=

[John Doe]

Amidst the gloom today.

 

Key downside support levels include 10,050 for the Dow, 1,070 for the S&P, 1,740 for the NASDAQ, 5,100 for the FTSE, and 640 for the 60.

 

Corporate News

 

Another day, another round of positive earnings reports. Companies that beat the street overnight and this morning include:

 

United Parcel Service (UPS $0.75 vs street $0.74).

DR Horton (DHI $0.56 vs street ($0.14))

Cummins (CMI $1.36 vs street $0.78)

Emerson Electric (EMR $0.56 vs street $0.42)

Hershey (HSY $0.63 vs street $0.60)

Archer Daniels (ADM $0.88 vs street $0.72)

Dow Chemical ($0.18 vs street $0.11)

Whirlpool (WHR $1.64 vs street $1.32)

 

http://www.digitallook.com/dl/news/story/3...ername=&ac=

Well, those supports have gone. Sandy Jadeja was looking around DOW 9650 as the next support (that was back on 19th Jan).

 

 

 

 

[No6]

Well, those supports have gone. Sandy Jadeja was looking around DOW 9650 as the next support (that was back on 19th Jan).

 

We will see if the Dow holds the round number tomorrow.

[No6]

Below are the 1, 4 hour and daily charts for the S&P and while the overall trend looks down there is enough doubt to keep the bulls alive.

 

One hour chart

Four hour chart

Daliy chart

[No6]

Roubini Says Stocks Will Be `Flat’ Through Year-End.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&...HCELJS5KVy4.asf

[No6]

Are we about to see a bounce or more of the same?

 

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures rose, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from four weeks of losses, as analyst upgrades of companies from Home Depot Inc. to Walt Disney Co. offset concern over deteriorating government finances in Europe.

 

Home Depot, the largest home-improvement retailer, and Walt Disney, the biggest media company, rose at least 0.7 percent. CIT Group Inc. jumped 4.1 percent after naming former Merrill Lynch & Co. chief John Thain chairman as chief executive officer.

 

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in March climbed 0.3 percent to 1,062.5 at 9:15 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased 0.1 percent to 9,955 while Nasdaq-100 Index futures rose 0.1 percent to 1,747.25.

 

“The decline of last week was overdone,” said Stanley Nabi, New York-based vice chairman of Silvercrest Asset Management Group, which manages $8.5 billion. “There’s nothing in the U.S. market that justified last week’s selloff. The U.S. is emerging as more stable. The economy and corporate earnings are improving.”

 

U.S. stocks have retreated for four straight weeks, the longest losing streak since July.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...sMqGk&pos=3

[John Doe]

Are we about to see a bounce or more of the same?

DD was looking at a rise to just under 10300 before big falls (if the EW count is right).

 

[No6]

DD was looking at a rise to just under 10300 before big falls (if the EW count is right).

 

If we get more than 10300, does that nullify it? So far we have come off about 700 points on the Dow and the last time we had a big move down was June/July last year of around 700 points, 8800ish to 8000ish (% fall bigger than the current move down), the next move back up was about 1300 points, the next few weeks should be interesting.

[John Doe]

If we get more than 10300, does that nullify it?

I think that’s one interpretation

 

However, saying that, it has been a very accurate thread and he has stated when it's either a high or low confidence stance.

 

I think this falls somewhere inbetween

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry155967

 

 

[No6]

I think that’s one interpretation

 

However, saying that, it has been a very accurate thread and he has stated when it's either a high or low confidence stance.

 

I think this falls somewhere inbetween

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry155967

 

I can see the possibility of a 3-400 upside move from here, the market looks like it is really thinking about the next move right now, the Dow hovering around 10000.