No6 Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 New thread for 2010. Going higher? http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commenta...floor_blog.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted December 31, 2009 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 What were some saying in 1999? http://www.amazon.com/DOW-36-000-Strategy-...tmm_hrd_title_0 Happy new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 What were some saying in 1999? ... I didn't know that one of the authors was part of McCain's 2008 campaign, no wonder that he didn't win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted December 31, 2009 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 I didn't know that one of the authors was part of McCain's 2008 campaign, no wonder that he didn't win Ah, the art of prediction! The only thing that I will predict with 100% certainty is that many people who make predictions will be as near as dammit 100% wrong. Some of them, even if wrong, will have their army of followers regardless, while others will make loads of money - from being wrong. I suspect that the authors of Dow 36000 made a pile. Here's a few other stupid predictions from 1999. 25 Stupid Things We Thought in 1999 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009...ht-in-1999.aspx A sample, some seem like yesterday. The Internet has eliminated stock market cycles ... this paradigm has shifted! You'd have to be a Moron not to invest in Enron -- it's revolutionizing the way we deal with energy. Gas sure is cheap. Stop -- Hummer time! Alan Greenspan is an economic micromanaging genius! Home prices will never go down. This time it's different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 China the driver for 2010? China expected to grow 9.5% in 2010. China is expected to grow by about 9.5 percent in 2010, state media quoted a government think tank as saying Friday, exceeding forecasts made by outside experts for the new year. The world's third-largest economy will be boosted by double-digit growth in real estate investment and mild inflation, the State Council's Development Research Centre said in a report published in the China Economic Times. "In 2010, the external environment will remain rather grim but it will not deteriorate further," Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomist at the centre, said in the report. Zhang added that exports -- a key driver of economic growth -- would start to grow again in the coming year. http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20100101/tbs-c...10-5268574.html The Market Oracle Newsletter December 31st, 2009 China Leads the Way for Strong Global Growth 2010 and Beyond China is leading the way to the return of global growth with expectations for GDP growth for 2010 of as much as 10%, which further confirms expectations for the potential of a global growth story surprise to the upside for 2010. Whilst at the present time many analysts / commentators worry about China market bubbles, much as they worried about the "stocks bear market rally" that was always destined for an imminent demise during 2009 which instead was one of the greatest bull markets in history. I don't see why China is not going to keep growing strongly for 2010, 2011 and beyond especially as domestic consumption becomes an ever larger part of China's growth story with other emerging markets not far behind. Having originally called the China stock market as a Great Buy at SSEC 2,000, with the index now at 3,200 up 92% from its bear market low just continues to prove how wrong the China doom mongers have been found out to be as the continue harping on about how China has to at some point withdraw the huge economic stimulus of 2009, though without understanding that with growing reserves of $2 trillion they do not have to as I pointed out back in June 2009. China Mega-trend Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update, SSEC Up 47%. Many of the comments I made at the time of China boosting World trade and commerce is coming to pass and will increasingly do so during 2010. So regardless of volatility during 2010, China will continue to notch up a further gains during 2010 AND 2011, We could easily see the Chinese stock market end 2010 above SSEC 4,200 which 'should' help elevate all major stock markets higher, just as the Chinese economy helps elevate the major economies higher. China's thirst for resources and energy also sets the scene for the continuing commodities bull markets right across the board as part of the inflation mega-trend scenario, which ensures mineral producing countries such as Australia and Canada and oil exporting countries will see China lift their economies higher as prices are driven higher. http://www.walayatstreet.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 2009 best performers. Global stock markets were boosted by government support programs across to world in 2009 with Russia, Brazil, India and China, the best big market performers. The decade has been the worst for US stocks, since the 1820's and regional indexes in Europe and Asia also show decade declines. The Russian market rose 111.6% in 2009, followed by Brazil at 82.7%; India's BSE Sensex 30 at 81% and China's Shanghai SE Composite Index with a 79.2% return in 2009. Sri Lanka gained 125.3% and Indonesia 87%. The Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 200 gained 30.9%; and laggards in Asia, were Japan's Nikkei 225 up 19.0% and New Zealand's NZX 50 climbing 18.9%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 35% and tracks about 1,000 regional stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex-Japan stocks - - about 400 - - surged 68%. India's Sensex Index has more than tripled in the past decade, compared with a 4.5% drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. March 9th, was the day in 2009 to make money as the Asia Pacific Index plunged to a 5-year low and rose 70% subsequently, while indexes in Europe and the US plunged to 12-year lows on the same day. In Europe, national benchmark indexes rose in all of the 18 western European markets with the exception of Iceland, in 2009. Norway's OBX was the best performer in 2009, gaining 70%. http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/ar...e_1018726.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 Always nervous of market moves over holidays as the trading is so thin small(ish) players can move markets (remember the euro pound parity last year?) So, if a breakout occurs during these periods, is it still valid, or can it be ignored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 Always nervous of market moves over holidays as the trading is so thin small(ish) players can move markets (remember the euro pound parity last year?) So, if a breakout occurs during these periods, is it still valid, or can it be ignored? Those little charts above cover the last 3 months, but I would agree that this low volume period should probably be taken with a pinch of salt. Worth keeping an eye on the "January effect" though. * 85% of the time the S&P 500 has seen a rise the first five days of the year, the index has followed suit the remainder of the year. * 32 of the last 39 years the performance of the S&P 500 has followed the direction of the index in January for the following 11 months. http://seekingalpha.com/article/180478-pot...all-cap-edition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverharp Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA...mp;g=0&id=0 The NYA which according to Tom O'Brien is 60% of the global market cap still hasnt broken out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 2, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA...mp;g=0&id=0 The NYA which according to Tom O'Brien is 60% of the global market cap still hasnt broken out 7000 looks like a key support level, but it has been sideways trading for a couple of months and that can't really last. Adding the bollinger bands shows a tunnel nicely forming which is the same for a number of other indices right now. When the brake comes it could be fairly big either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 2, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Given also the financial commitment that the US is going to make on healthcare over the next 10 years, it might be worth taking postions in health, pharma and the biotech sector with an eye on where the next bubble might emerge. Any thoughts on favorite sectors or companies to watch out for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Given also the financial commitment that the US is going to make on healthcare over the next 10 years, it might be worth taking postions in health, pharma and the biotech sector with an eye on where the next bubble might emerge. Any thoughts on favorite sectors or companies to watch out for? Given the possible investigation into the pharma companies in wren's post I would not put any money into them yet as they maybe some good pickings when their price is hit on any announcement that they are being investigated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverharp Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 7000 looks like a key support level, but it has been sideways trading for a couple of months and that can't really last. Adding the bollinger bands shows a tunnel nicely forming which is the same for a number of other indices right now. When the brake comes it could be fairly big either way. I guess there could be head fakes in either direction, It took 9 months to get up here so I guess it will be a case of watching out for the retests to see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 We should all be watching China again. Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and commodities rose while Treasuries fell on the first trading day of 2010 as China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in more than five years and the outlook for American job losses improved. Oil gained after freezing weather hit the U.S. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks advanced 0.6 percent at 10:06 a.m. in London and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.7 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.6 percent to a 17-month high. The 10-year Treasury note yield climbed to 3.87 percent, near the highest level since June. Natural gas for February delivery gained as much as 4.5 percent and crude oil rose for an eighth day, exceeding $80 a barrel. Manufacturing in China, which led the recovery from the first global recession since World War II, expanded by the most in five years last month, an industry report showed. The U.S. will report Jan. 8 that payrolls fell in December by the smallest amount since the recession began two years ago, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. “We expect 2010 to mark a further period of economic recovery, albeit in most instances with the growth upturn remaining moderate rather than very strong,” Richard Urwin, London-based head of asset allocation and economics at BlackRock Inc., which manages about $1.4 trillion, wrote in a note. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...e0g5o&pos=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Dali Posted January 4, 2010 Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Given also the financial commitment that the US is going to make on healthcare over the next 10 years, it might be worth taking postions in health, pharma and the biotech sector with an eye on where the next bubble might emerge. Any thoughts on favorite sectors or companies to watch out for? Novartis are very strong in Oncology drugs. Unfortunately cancer is not going away anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Novartis are very strong in Oncology drugs. Unfortunately cancer is not going away anytime soon. It doesn't have to, many of these companies make money on the hope of a discovery. You just have to make sure that you are not on the wrong side of it if the trials results come up bad. If and when there is a cure for cancer the company that comes up with it will sky rocket in value. Same is true for those that come up with something for diabetes, hair loss and fighting obesity with a daily pill, etc. I'm just wondering if pharma might be the next bubble especially amongst smaller companies given changes happening in the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Dali Posted January 4, 2010 Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 It doesn't have to, many of these companies make money on the hope of a discovery. You just have to make sure that you are not on the wrong side of it if the trials results come up bad. If and when there is a cure for cancer the company that comes up with it will sky rocket in value. Same is true for those that come up with something for diabetes, hair loss and fighting obesity with a daily pill, etc. I'm just wondering if pharma might be the next bubble especially amongst smaller companies given changes happening in the US? You know all this; big pharmas (gsk, pfizer, roche etc) have enough going at once and that's why they're classed as defensives, but smaller companies can live or die on a set of results. Drugs trials are notioriously hard to predict. Guess some would say pot luck without some inside info. Perhaps i dont have much to contribute here, as i don't know a great deal about the american situation. But i was under the impression that Medicare and Medicaid programmes were being extended. This healthcare bill is about taking alot of revenue from current private (for example) health insurance firms and socialising it. So alot of private insurance firms currently doing very well from the cutrrent situation will be taking big haircuts. So, who will the US gvmt use for their healthcare / health insurance expertise? Are you talking about which firms will get government tenders/deals to provide specialist care to the masses? Maybe we need to look closer to home to make a predition: what do NHS execs look for when making decisions on which companies to use/outsource to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Are you talking about which firms will get government tenders/deals to provide specialist care to the masses? Maybe we need to look closer to home to make a predition: what do NHS execs look for when making decisions on which companies to use/outsource to? I think there might be a knock on effect given the way markets tend to react irrationally to the thought of more money coming their way? Pharma and biotech have often been tipped as the next big thing and it has never quite happened, but with all the extra funding for healthcare, if it happens, may have that knock on effect this time? Of course, it could all be a damp squib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted January 4, 2010 Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 I think there might be a knock on effect given the way markets tend to react irrationally to the thought of more money coming their way? Pharma and biotech have often been tipped as the next big thing and it has never quite happened, but with all the extra funding for healthcare, if it happens, may have that knock on effect this time? Of course, it could all be a damp squib. It does happen that sectors are out of favour for a period of time before bouncing back to popularity. Pharma / Bio could quite conceviably be one rebound sector given the impact technological developments have - big pharma have been struggling to produce new "blockbuster" drugs for years, but of course the future could be different and a series of successes would lead to a sector re-rating. But of course the small bio stocks are much like junior mining explorers - cash hungry, needing to find a successful well (cure) in order to strike it rich. So a very possible IF ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Another bullish view, but an interesting one. Why I'm Buying Stocks This Year By Frank Curzio, editor, Penny Stock Specialist Right now, it's easy to make the case that sometime this year we'll be in the middle of a stock and credit bubble. This potential bubble has its roots in the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) passed early last year. It's the largest stimulus package in our nation's history. Billions in "free money" is being passed around to the infrastructure, technology, and energy sectors. And only 32% of the stimulus has been spent thus far. Based on the laws of the ARRA, most of the remaining cash must be spent in 2010 and 2011. In other words, there will be a huge amount of cash flowing into companies over the next two years. The surge in gold and commodity prices supports the idea that we'll eventually see inflation and bubbles from the massive government spending... especially with our government throwing money into every problem area of the market. So it would be difficult for any analyst to say they are not concerned about future bubbles or inflation. I certainly am. But here's what I'm about to show you: Bubbles are not created overnight. It could take up to four years before another credit crisis or inflation hits the markets. http://www.dailywealth.com/index.asp?subscribed=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverharp Posted January 4, 2010 Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 anyone any insights into this post on PHK by denninger? http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archive...ells-Smoke.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 anyone any insights into this post on PHK by denninger? http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archive...ells-Smoke.html He's looking for signals on the downside, but isn't he always? We will have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Here's some other Pimco news. Pimco to Start Global Stock Fund Amid Equity Push Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s largest manager of bonds, filed with U.S. regulators to start a stock mutual fund that can also invest in bank loans, junk bonds and distressed securities. Pimco Global Opportunities Fund will buy securities and financial instruments “economically tied” to at least three countries, one of which may be the U.S., according to a registration statement filed today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund will be able to purchase shares in companies of all sizes. Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian this month hired Neel Kashkari, former head of the U.S. Treasury’s bank-rescue program, as well as Franklin Resources Inc.’s Anne Gudefin and Charles Lahr, to help the company expand the range of products it’s offering investors. Pimco Global Opportunity could position the Newport Beach, California-based company to reap the benefits of an investor shift from bond to stock funds. “Pimco is a bond shop, but I think they have a view that bonds will under-perform stocks on a pretty regular basis in the future,” said A. Michael Lipper, the head of Lipper Advisory Services Inc., a Summit, New Jersey-based investment adviser. “Now they are hedging.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=apJ_Tr18hdIc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 6, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2010 Dubai seems to have been forgotten fairly quickly. Hopes pinned on recovery in Gulf By Robin Wigglesworth Published: January 6 2010 16:45 | Last updated: January 6 2010 16:45 For much of 2009, Arab stock markets as a whole significantly underperformed other frontier and emerging markets, despite relatively healthy oil prices. Investor wariness was reinforced by a series of shocks in the Gulf in particular. Last year began with investment company defaults in Kuwait, and ended with a debt restructuring in Dubai. In between, the traditional summer lull was shattered by the defaults of two leading Saudi family groups, virtually unheard of in the Middle East. Over the past 12 months, the MSCI Arabian Markets index chalked up a gain of only 15.7 per cent, compared to the 69.5 per cent rally of the Emerging Markets index. Excluding the Gulf bourses, the MSCI Frontier Markets has risen 22.4 per cent over the same period. Some money managers and analysts believe the Gulf markets may be in line for a catch-up in 2010, once the shock of Dubai’s debt restructuring abates. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ea003f8-fae1-11...144feab49a.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 6, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2010 A biotech bull. 2010: A Huge Year for Biotech Stocks I expect biotech stocks to have an outstanding 2010, especially the small-caps. Despite a very difficult year for the U.S. economy, biotech companies still managed to raise nearly $50 billion in 2009, the second highest total in the industry’s history. Last year also saw three biotech companies go public, but over the first six months of 2010 alone, a further five are expected to make their stock market debuts. And Steven Burrill, CEO of Burrill & Company, a merchant bank specializing in the biotech sector, projects 15 biotech IPOs in 2010. Now, I typically don’t recommend buying IPOs right out of the gate – especially in the biotech sector, where companies will likely have to raise money again in another year or so. But the fact that we’ve seen some hit the market already – and should to be able to continue raising capital and land partnerships – shows that demand is strong for biotech companies and their products. I also expect many small-cap biotech stocks to start popping up on Wall Street’s radar. In fact, over the last day or so, several prominent biotech analysts have stated that they’ll be increasing their focus on smaller-cap names. This could be for a couple of reasons… * They honestly believe small-cap biotech stocks will be the best place to make money in 2010. * With the expected deal flow this year, analysts want to be sure they’re positioning their banks to get in on the offerings and mergers and acquisition activity. http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2010/Janua...html#more-12581 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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