Late August Watch-list

[drbubb]

The Gold price tends to be highly seasonal, and in something like 8 years out of 10, it is possible to buy gold mining stocks in mid-to-late August and see very handsome returns within 6-8 weeks.

 

Seasonal Gold Chart

 

It looks like this may be possible again in August 2006, and I am beginningh to compile a Watchlist of possible BUY candidates.

 

Here are a few:

American Bonanza (v.BZA) : update : D-6mos

 

Glencairn Res..... (t.GGG) : update : D-6mos : at $0.62 or less

 

Grayd Resources. (v.GYD) : update : D-6mos

 

Mustang Minerals (v.MUM) : update : D-6mos

 

MORE Stock names and charts will begin to appear on this thread in the coming days. If you have any stocks that you would like me to look at, please post the names and symbols here. Note that I am primarilly looking for Canadian and US listed stocks. When the promotional machines start up, we can see some handsome moves in these stocks

[Guest Hectorp]

The Gold price tends to be highly seasonal, and in something like 8 years out of 10, it is possible to buy gold mining stocks in mid-to-late August and see very handsome returns within 6-8 weeks.

 

Seasonal Gold Chart

 

It looks like this may be possible again in August 2006, and I am beginningh to compile a Watchlist of possible BUY candidates.

 

Here are a few:

Glencairn Res..... (t.GGG) : update : D-6mos : at $0.62 or less

 

Grayd Resources. (v.GYD) : update : D-6mos

 

Mustang Minerals (v.MUM) : update : D-6mos

 

MORE Stock names and charts will begin to appear on this thread in the coming days. If you have any stocks that you would like me to look at, please post the names and symbols here. Note that I am primarilly looking for Canadian and US listed stocks. When the promotional machines start up, we can see some handsome moves in these stocks

[drbubb]

Hectorp, (from Advfn, right?)

 

Why not register, and add a few stocks to the list?

[bonobo]

Are there any AIM gold/silver miners that you fancy Dr B?

 

I have GGG and HIF at the moment but both have gone sideways for a while now. Am possibly considering Herencia (HER) but would welcome any other suggestions.

 

Thanks

[drbubb]

I am not familiar with HER.L - will have a look.

 

And will be reviewing the charts on these also:

 

v.LRR Linear Gold: update : D-6mos : at $4.00 or less

 

v.SYR Sidney Resources : update : D-6mos : at $0.30 or less

..

v.UPC Uranium Power : update : D-6mos : at $0.62 or less

..

v.VAN Vangold Expl. update : D-6mos : at $0.62 or less

..

v.YZC- Yukon Zinc.. update : D-6mos : at $0.62 or less

[Guest Campbell]

Hectorp, (from Advfn, right?)

 

Why not register, and add a few stocks to the list?

 

Stocks I am watching/buying include

 

gabriel GBU

euromax EOX

nevsun NSU

sunridge gold SGC

gateway mining GTQ

mawson MAW

battle mountain BMGX

aquiline AQI

cash minerals CHX

[drbubb]

USing some NEW MA's on a weekly chart : (18,70,185 wks):

 

These charts look good:

 

v.ABS : t.GGG : v.GTQ : t.NSU : v.SYR : v.VAN

 

...now it's time to look at fundamentals...

 

(note: I have recently bought: v.MUM, v.UPC, v.VAN - since this thread was started )

[burbelly]

HIF: More results to come over the next few weeks from Santa Cruz, recent buy recommedation from Teather and Greenwood valued them at 16p. Golden Zone results should also add to price

 

Altoventures...awaiting conculsion of Despinasy analaysis could get a big rerating in resource estimate.

[burbelly]

apparently piper capital are planing 1 or possibly 2 PP for the autumn for a new project, could be worth keeping an eye on too

[drbubb]

Some in the UK worth a look:

 

Cambridge. CMR : at 3.55p or less

 

Paladex ...... PLX : at 3.25p or less

 

Patagonia ... PGD : at 5.9p or less

 

Tertiary ...... TYM : at 9.1p or less

[Sledgehead]

Some in the UK worth a look:

 

Cambridge. CMR : at 3.55p or less

 

 

I sometimes feel like the world's last contrarian, but even I wonder about the wisdom of buying a share with a chart like Cambridge's, considering we have been in a resource boom! It looks more like a dotcom! Looks like it could casualy drift to 1.75p without anyone noticing. Trouble is, that would be a 50% loss!

 

paladex looks even worse. Patagonia looks like it has fallen way too quick.

 

My question is, WHY have these resource stocks performed so appaulingly and what will the look like at any hint of a Chinese slowing!!!!

[drbubb]

the Seasonal Gold chart shows the big Pop up in the second half,

so that period is still ahead of us. We could get a low within this week at $560 or so.

 

Some Senior stocks, charts, and possible targets follow:

 

Newmont : NEM : $42.40

Barrick... : ABX : maybe $27.20

Anglogold : AU : $40-now!, or maybe $37

Goldfields : GFI : $16, or maybe $14

Goldcorp. : GG : $23, maybe $20

ASA Corp : ASA : $50

 

- -

some cyclical dates from Fred Starkey for Gold & Silver are as follows:

 

52 week: high: Oct.6th // minor low: Nov 6th // low: jan 5th

 

he talks about gold going to $660, $683 or even $718

it is funny how he is talking Oct upside targets as gold is falling.

This is because of a "double divergence on the stochastics" - expects sharp turnaround

[burbelly]

looks like 560 might be reached

[csmyth]

I sometimes feel like the world's last contrarian, but even I wonder about the wisdom of buying a share with a chart like Cambridge's, considering we have been in a resource boom! It looks more like a dotcom! Looks like it could casualy drift to 1.75p without anyone noticing. Trouble is, that would be a 50% loss!

 

paladex looks even worse. Patagonia looks like it has fallen way too quick.

 

My question is, WHY have these resource stocks performed so appaulingly and what will the look like at any hint of a Chinese slowing!!!!

 

Most of these stocks are now selling on their cash backing, which is usually the sign of a stock that cant go any lower. Things like PLX only need a deal to change their picture, and it is usually done when things are darkest like right now (for the simple reason that egos have been crushed to the point of actually accepting a decent deal!). Even if China slows in its metal buying the resource shares have got TOO cheap, and you will see the leaders bottoming soon and starting turning positive. The sector is very oversold right now and in dire need of a bounce.

[drbubb]

I agree.

I believe there is a good chance we saw the bottom on last Friday,

and that will be clear by the end of this week. Friday's turnarround was a good start

 

= =

 

later;

monday's upward move is further confirmation

[drbubb]

piper capital (v.pcl) is starting to rise.

there's over 32 cents of hidefield backing every share

 

Each PCL share will be backed by 1.75 shares of HIF

 

Thus: 1.75 x 10p x C$2.00approx = C$0.35 approx.

of backing for each PCL share

[drbubb]

Worth adding??

 

Etruscan (EET.t) ... update : buy below $3.00??

chart

 

Eldorado Gold (ELD.t) ... update :

chart

[drbubb]

Nice fat gain in Linear / v.LRR

 

Looking to add this one:

 

Staccato Gold / v.CAT

...is a growing gold exploration company, publicly traded on the TSX Venture Exchange (TSX-V: CAT). The company was established in the fall of 2003 and has since assembled a suite of high quality, highly prospective exploration assets, with operations and exploration activities in the Cortez, Carlin and Independence Trends in Nevada. Staccato's properties are adjacent to producing mines and all have demonstrated gold values with more than 615,000 oz. Au in situ (measured, indicated and inferred). Staccato is currently focused on its 100% owned South Eureka Property which is one of the largest gold exploration target opportunities held by a junior in Nevada. The company is led by a seasoned management team with extensive Nevada geological experience.

 

Paul Van Eaden discusses these:

 

On Gold Stocks:

 

STACCATO GOLD RESOURCE (CVE:CAT): 300,000 ounces in a public company isn't something that's very attractive to me..economics of scale just aren't there..if its 300,000 going on a million, more interesting..other operators before Staccato have not been able to make a mine out of it

 

NORTHGATE MINERALS (AMEX:NXG TSE:NGX): has very good management team..deposits are decent, there is some copper associated, therefore some risk because I'm bearish on copper..

 

GALANTAS GOLD CORP (CVE:GAL): boatload of stocks outstanding..small mine in Ireland that they are trying to put into production..also small jewelry division..what company is this? I don't have a clear indication of what this company is trying to be..mine only have 88,000 ounces..company split personality, bootstrap small mine, something to avoid

 

GOLD-ORE RESOURCES LTD (CVE:GOZ): Sweden good jurisdiction..don't know too much

 

LARA EXPLORATION (CVE:LRA): I like Brazil, huge mineral endowment..I own Lara, run by Miles Thompson, bought stock because Miles was running company..I don't see any real reason why not to look minerals in Brazil..get JV partners to do exploration..protect Lara share structure..bought it at $1.30

 

CORNERSTONE CAPITAL (CVE:CGP): attractive land position in Ecuador..have not sold any of it..elections soon, big question..tremendous discover with AURELIAN (CVE:ARU) and IAMGOLD (NYSE:IAG AMEX:IAG TSE:IAG), Cornerstone has deposit next to IAMGOLD..have JVed out..intelligent business model..if Ecuadorian politics turn against us, need to review

 

for more of Van Eeden's commentary including discussion of past picks, visit

 

http://robtvgold.blogspot.com/

 

((note: I already own GAL.v and LRA.v))

[HollandPark]

SOME MORE IDEAS===

 

Several larger producers have held up remarkably well in the recent downturn ?suggesting that they could be among the market leaders in the next turnaround phase. Companies like Kinross Gold [NYSE:KGC; TSX:K], IAMGold [NYSE:IAG; TSX:IMG], Barrick Gold [NYSE:ABX; TSX:ABX] and Agnico-Eagle Mines [NYSE:AEM; TSX:AEM] have seen fairly limited downside moves since May ?especially when compared to some of the larger declines in companies like Goldcorp [NYSE:GG; TSX:G] and Newmont [NYSE:NEM]. Given their strength and growing production base, these would be among the first companies I would take a look at.

 

Another great strategy is to look at those companies with short-term production problems, start-up snags, or production delays that have seen caused share prices to get beaten up well below fair value. While these companies often haven weathered the downturn that well, this is often because of these operational issues ?rather than sheer overvaluation (as I would argue was the case with Goldcorp this spring). This list could include companies like Goldenstar Resoruces [AMEX:GSS; TSX:GSC] and Nevsun Resources [AMEX:NSU; TSX:NSU], among others.

 

...MORE: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=24497

[webmaster]

HOW'd WE DO??

=======

 

"well, the cyclical upturn came later than expected.

But most of these stocks have done pretty well"

 

Here's the Best one:

Linear Gold (LRR.v) ... update

 

...drB : "I actually bought at c$3.34, and it is now trading at $7.00.

 

HOPE that some others managed to buy some of the following:"

 

Sym. Stock ===== Mentioned at : -Now-

ABZ.v Amer.Bonanza $ 0.40 - 08/23 : $--- confusion on symbol ---

GGG.t Glencairn Res $ 0.62 - 08/23 : $ 0.60 - 03.2%

GYD.v Grayd Res..... $ 0.63*- 08/23 : $ 0.89 + 41.3%

MUM.v Mustang Minl $ 0.26*- 08/23 : $ 0.33 + 26.9%

LRR.v Linear Gold.... $ 3.34*- 08/23 : $ 7.00 +109.6%

WTM.v W.Timmins.. $ 0.35*- 08/23 : $0.39 + 11.1% (was SYR)

UPC.v Uranium Pwr.. $0.48*- 08/23 : $ 0.68 + 41.7% : Sold at this price

 

- --

 

Sledge.,

I hope you got some CMR at 1.75p- here's what happened

 

 

CMR has been helped by its zinc exposure, I heard

[drbubb]

"I am looking at Bonanza Res. (BRS.v) at $0.20 ... update

 

... but I need to do more work on fundamentals"

 

I stumbled across it when looking for American Bonanza.

 

It is not a gold explorer however. They describe themselves as:

 

"Bonanza Resources Corporation is a professionally managed junior oil and gas exploration company with an increasing revenue stream. The Company is currently developing projects in Oklahoma and Texas. Through its extensive contact base and using its current revenues, Bonanza will continue to seek out and participate in high potential natural gas drill programs in North America."

 

(i am glad to learn that they are "professionally managed")

 

= = =

 

AFTER a quick bit of research, i decided BRS is not for me:

 

BRS has a chart of a type that I like.

Such charts often mean the price has fallen to long term support, and the last sellers are being wrung up.

 

I believe it could be a safe buy- provided there is some fundamental news coming out that will bring fresh interest into the stock. The drilling sounded promising, but the releases were skimpy on detail.

 

When I saw the tiny revenues (only $26K in a quarter), i decided there must be alot less to the story than the NR's suggested.

 

I will stay away

[chas and dave]

I have about 10 small investments or so now in mining related companies (in addition to physical and some general resource funds & NUF etc), and from a novice point of view ~ of those, Cambridge, Uramin & Silver Wheaton are doing well overall recently.

 

Mawson seems erratic, but I have now made a small investment, and enjoyed their podcast linked on their site. Euromax, Mediterranean and Galantas look interesting, if very volatile.

 

Minco looks unpopular and very low (silver and zinc).

 

I tried to invest in Jinshan Gold Mines recently, but the TD Waterhouse site just wouldn't load the stock into the buying window, and I didn't get around to phoning my order in. Doing 7+% today.

 

I think I'll sit back and watch for a while, and try to find time for some more studying of the suggested names, although I've done stacks already, mostly linking from valuable comments here. I suppose I should go for a few more, but I just got a little held up doing the study and setting up period.

 

One of the gold charts posted a while back seemed to be forming a V shape towards the US election date, and now gold and silver seem to be reacting, as does the energy sector.

 

Who knows, but it all looks somewhat jittery now.

[drbubb]

C&D,

 

thanks for those comments. it's good to see people finding their way into this sector.

 

MAW is up nicely from the below $1.00 level, where its should have been easy to pick up.

I'm not sure I would be buying it at over $1.20, but I do think it has potential to shoot up from here,

especially if its Swedish uranium assets are "discovered" by the wider market.

 

There arent as many good stocks "still on the mat" as there used to be.

So it may be necessary to look for stories with flaws, that have a good chance of disappearing

 

Golden China (AUC.v) is like that. Its merger with Michelago has been delayed so long that

the market has lost confidence. A successful fundraising and a quick merger could fix that

the sceptical sentiment towards the stock. Their great drill results are mostly ignored

[drbubb]

MUM - another double in the making?

===

 

It got too cheap, down at $0.26 : now $0.405

Now MUM has brought in a partner, Western Areas, an established Australian producer.

WA bought c$5mn worth of stock :

 

8,571,429 common shares of Mustang at C$0.35 per share representing $3 million and an initial 13% interest in the outstanding capital of Mustang.

 

Mr. Julian Hanna, Managing Director of Western Areas said,

"This investment in Mustang offers Western Areas exposure to one of the most promising nickel projects in Canada. We have reviewed many nickel opportunities outside Australia and believe that the Maskwa deposit has strong potential to be the next nickel mine developed in Canada in an area with well established infrastructure and excellent exploration upside."

 

 

= =

 

GYD : Grayd Resources ... chart

 

Up from $0.60 to over $1.00

 

 

Luck strikes again, and again...

UPDATING those that i actually bought:

 

Sym. Stock ===== Mentioned at : -Now-

GYD.v Grayd Res..... $ 0.63*- 08/23 : $ 1.02 + 61.9%

MUM.v Mustang Minl $ 0.26*- 08/23 : $ 0.405 + 55.8%

LRR.v Linear Gold.... $ 3.34*- 08/23 : $ 6.24 + 86.8% (was over $7.00)

WTM.v W.Timmins.. $ 0.35*- 08/23 : $0.44 + 25.7% (was SYR)

UPC.v Uranium Pwr.. $0.48*- 08/23 : $ 0.68 + 41.7% : Sold at this price

[chas and dave]

Any comments on these two

 

Columbus Gold Corporation

Minco Silver Corp

 

 

And Nautilus Minerals

with Anglo American PLC and Barrick Gold as significant shareholders

may not be cheap, but interesting company sampling the seabed

http://www.nautilusminerals.com/s/Home.asp