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Beyond Gold - Food! Time for Agri Stocks (& Uranium)?

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Beyond Gold > Food! Time for Agri Stocks (& Uranium)?

What are the stocks to follow? / Food stock charts : Watch

=========================================

The Agri fund has been a poor investment for years

DBA / DB's Agri Fund ... all-data ...: Last, updated to March 13, 2019: $16.37

N9jfBQ5.gif

dba -vs udn : update : DBA-$16.36/ UDN-$20.88 = Ratio: r-78.4%

csapyue.gif

DBA Agri-Trust in Gold ounces ... update / Last : $16.36 / $1300 = 1.00%

qojoV87.png

Consider the following EXCERPT from:

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS / by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS

Each of those bars represents the USDA’s estimate of ending stocks for this crop year relative to expected consumption. For example, less than 2 months of global corn consumption will be in storage at the end of this crop year. For rice, a little more than 2 months of global consumption will be in storage. These statistics are not the lowest that have been experienced. However, both are far lower than the historical experience or that which would provide a comfortable margin of food adequacy.

1116_clip_image002.gif . 1116_clip_image004.gif

Globally, the food balances in the “bank” are extremely low. The damage to the rice crops and rice in storage in India and the Philippines, as well as damage to the Arkansas crop, may already be tipping rice into a less than adequate supply situation. As the above statistic for rice is on a global basis, it does not portray the situation within individual nations. If the global average is only two months, some nations have less and some, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have more. As rice is not made in a factory, only the next crop year can eradicate any unmet needs.

Agri-Food, aside from not being made in a factory, has another important characteristic that should be understood. In many ways, the global Agri-Food situation is like a giant Rubik’s Cube. If rice is not in adequate supply, then wheat may be used as a substitute. So, while wheat may currently looks plentiful, as the world pushes on the other side of the cube the adequate supply of wheat becomes less than adequate.

Most interesting is the level of vegetable oils in stock relative to consumption. Less than one month of the world’s consumption of vegetable oil exists

/more: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2009/1116.html

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DrBubb said:
DBA Agri-Trust in Gold ounces ... update

What is in it ?

DBA / PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund vs. CORN.L ... update : DBA: $16.37 / Corn.L : $00 = r-0.00 (3/13/19)

LVTPKKY.gif

(updated list to July 2018):

All 10 Holdings

Commodity : - Pct.- : Symbol :  07/23 : /DBA--- :
Soybean      : 14.15% : $soyb    : 862.7  : r-49.36 :
Cocoa          : 12.70% : $cocoa  : 2299. : r-131.5 :
Coffee 'C'     : 12.48% : $coffee : 1.117 : r-6.39% :
Wheat           : 11.88% : $wheat  :  513.8 : r-29.39 :
Live Cattle    : 11.66% :$bcomLC 66.50 : r-3.804 :
Sugar            : 11.40% : $sugar  :  0.111 : r-0.06% :
Corn              :   9.87% : $corn    :  371.3 : r-21.24 :
Lean Hogs    :  8.29% :$bcomLH  5.484 : r-31.4% :
Cattle Feeder : 4.23% :  ? ? ? :
Cotton No.2   : 3.34% : $cotton  :  86.81 : r-4.970 :

> source: http://etfdb.com/etf/DBA/

...compare...

CORN.L / Etfs Com Securities (LSE) ... update : 0.7675 - This etf is much weaker than Corn itself

6FIglfO.gif

Note: CORN.L popped before DBA jumped up, at times in the past

Updated - $CORN

KIyj5y7.png

Updated - $SOYB

L7cbAtG.png

== == ==

What's in it?

The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (Symbol: DBA) (the “Fund”) is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index – Diversified Agriculture Excess Return™ (the “Index” or "DB Agriculture Index") and is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC (the “Managing Owner”). The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities. The Index is intended to reflect the performance of the agricultural sector.

dba_about.gif

/website: http://dbfunds.db.com/dba/index.aspx

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DrBubb said:
1116_clip_image002.gif . 1116_clip_image004.gif

Globally, the food balances in the “bank” are extremely low.

What's in that Food Stock index?

Here's a clue: source: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2009/1103.html

1103_clip_image004.gif

List
==== : company -------- : chart: 03/13/19
ADM / Archer Daniels : to D : $43.27 :
GRO  / GroMax Res.-- : to D : $0.105 :
SEED / OriginAgritech: to D :  $ 6.80 :

5UzSCo3.gif
HOGS/ Lean Hogs etf ---- : to D : $.5635 :
BG.    / Bunge Ltd ----------- : to D : $52.02 :
MEAN
SFD
SYT
AGU
CQB
DE
CNH
FEED
CALM
DAR
AGCO
MON
SPU

FOOD charts :: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=21259080

/Ned Schmidt - Archive: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/main.html

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A FOOD STRATEGY ... what might that be?

Help me formulate one, in this Members Only section

Food, glorious food

Of special interest will be the special ways of playing that within the UK, maybe using investments or efforts other than just traded securities and Etfs

If the Pound collapsed, this sort of investment may work well

== ==

It is now beginning to dawn on me that maybe...

A DOLLAR RISE, might come as Sterling and the Euro collapse due to credit issues, and

a creeping towards BFC in: Latvia, Greece, Spain, Ireland ... and the UK

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Not to sure what you think of this but I was looking for a graph of Vegatable oil supply/availability over time and stumbled accross this.

from March 19, 2009 - http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2009/03/Indonesia/

 

I was talking to an engineer from New Britian palm oils which are currently setting up in Liverpool UK, told me they are due to start production around April this year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustr...L65223720090806

Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM) I know processes a lot of Rape seed that the chances are if you ever eaten vegetable oil then you've consumed their product. but they've been going for many years now.

Sorry about not having the skills to post up charts and do loads of in depth analysis etc, but hopefully this might give you something to reflect on.

SR

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My first post so be gentle.

I like the idea of investing in agriculture. I cannot perform the kind of in depth analysis that most on this site can do. How ever I enjoy the fundamental perspective.

In my mind all food produced cannot be eaten right away. Therefore investment in cold storage solutions might be the way forward?

Here are some ideas.

Fenland and Partner Logistics - investing heavily in sector

http://www.partnerlogistics.eu/index.php?o...9&Itemid=51

 

Norish plc

http://www.norish.com/page/1/welcome-to-norish/

Kuehlhaus Zentrum AG (Public, HAM:KUZ)

Cold storage engineering.

Chart Industries

Inc NASDAQ:GTLS

ETR:LIN - For refrigeration gasses

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DrBubb said:
What is in it ?

DBA / PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund

Interesting, however, would you consider increasing your position in the agricultural stocks now or would you wait until the deflationary swing played out? The same question stands for the uranium stocks.

Personally for me as a GBP holder, I think, it would make sense to convert an allocated amount from GBP into USD and then leave that cash with my Canadian broker for another 3-6 months and only then purchase these stocks. Any comments on this are much appreciated.

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How is sugar looking?

I remember Jim Rogers saying for someone in their 20's two of the best investments would be sugar and silver.

People will always want sugar and with China and India growing (1/3 of the worlds population)...

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My first post so be gentle.

I like the idea of investing in agriculture. I cannot perform the kind of in depth analysis that most on this site can do. How ever I enjoy the fundamental perspective.

In my mind all food produced cannot be eaten right away. Therefore investment in cold storage solutions might be the way forward?

Here are some ideas...

Thanks for those interesting ideas, PMOC.

Welcome to GEI.

(I am wondering how you found the website.)

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Interesting, however, would you consider increasing your position in the agricultural stocks now or would you wait until the deflationary swing played out? The same question stands for the uranium stocks.

 

Personally for me as a GBP holder, I think, it would make sense to convert an allocated amount from GBP into USD and then leave that cash with my Canadian broker for another 3-6 months and only then purchase these stocks. Any comments on this are much appreciated.

 

I think we may be due for a deeper selloff this week, unless the mess in Dubai is fixed quickly.

If so, you might buy some stocks soon. But hold 70-80% "of your powder in reserve."

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pmoc2001 said:
Long time lurker and convert from HPC

Great. Welcome abord here. I will add some charts to your posting, if you dont mind

== == ==

Thanksgiving Trade #4: PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)

Posted Nov 29th 2009 9:00AM by Chris Johnson

Thanksgiving's origins can be traced back to festivals meant to celebrate the harvest, which makes this bullish pick a natural play on the holiday.

The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) provides investors with a single-share alternative to investing in agricultural commodities. This was one of the hottest commodity-based ETFs in 2007 and 2008, as the "crowd" became increasingly interested in trading commodities as food prices skyrocketed. Lately, DBA has seen less activity as rising food prices have fallen off consumers' and investors' radar screens. However, in my view, that means it's the perfect time for a bullish play.

Inflation fears have been in the news lately as interest rates remain extremely low. At the same time, news that current grain harvests have been affected by the wet conditions in the Midwest are likely to start boosting grain and other agricultural commodity prices. Given this, I believe investors who buy call options on DBA will harvest market-beating gains in the next three to six months.

/see: http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/11/29/t...lture-fund-dba/

 

/google search: http://www.google.com.hk/search?hl=en&...amp;aq=&oq=

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Great. Welcome abord here. I will add some charts to your posting, if you dont mind

== == ==

Please do. I am continuing my research in this area. These types of cold storage warehouse are covered by REITS so are tax efficient. REITS are bombed out at the moment.

1. There are a finite number of pallet spaces for cold storage

2. They need to be near where the food is produced and at ports

3. Cannot be built quickly

4. Need to be run well unlike india and SA e.g. Automated.

A big player?

Security Capital Investment Trust, in one fell swoop became No. 1 in Europe following the purchase of Frigoscandia AB

http://www.allbusiness.com/wholesale-trade...e/695409-1.html

and,

Director dealings in Norish PLC

Norish announces that it was informed on the 12th November 2009 of the purchase of 150,316 Ordinary Shares of nominal value €0.25 each by Ted O’Neill, Chairman at a price of 36.5 pence per share on 12th November 2009.

Following this purchase of shares, Ted O’Neill is the beneficial owner of 2,453,353 Ordinary Shares, representing 29% of the Company’s current issued share capital.

http://www.norish.com/announcements/93/dir...share-dealings/

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Corn Vesus Gold

 

OCTOBER 28, 2009 – COMMENTS (8) | RELATED TICKERS: GRU , DBA , MOO

I will readily admit that I do not have the time to spend to do research lots of data. For the past year I have been a small investor and I have 4 individual stocks I own- I sell one and then buy another when I get a good return. For better or worse my investment style is more based on my own theories regarding macro trends.

 

In my last blog I mentioned that water worldwide will be an increasing issue. I took a risk today and rotated out a mid-sized industrial to purchase GRU an exchage traded note based on 4 commodities. DBA does the same thing- just is more evenly weighted between the 4 commodities whereas GRU is more weighted towards wheat. I considered buying MOO but it is more like a mutual fund and I wanted to roll the dice a little on a pure play commodity. I also own PICO as a water commodity.

 

I have argued that there is not one thing- from cars to medical equipment- that does not have some agricultural bi-product in it. I have also been reading how small farmers are going out of business in record numbers because of the recession as the cost of fertilizer, servicing equipment, etc increases more than what they can sell their product for. That means there will be less producers in the future which is never good for the price of your cheerios.

 

Add the fact that water costs are increasing, population is increasing and also has more access to foods from around the world, we have global cooling (forget al gore) which I am betting will effect crops next year, degredation of our topsoil, currency in flux- I am taking a small bet that the cost of the wheat to your local pizza shop will increase more (as a percentage) than any metal or oil will.

 

I am not taking the Agriculture bet based on ethanol. I am taking the bet because i cannot see why the price of GRU (i know there is an annual fee subtracted) has been halved. I know commercial demand must have decreased a lot because of the recession or I may be missing some other huge increase in supply fact or decrease in demand fact that will cause me to lose my bet with myself. Like water I am betting the world cannot survive or make ipods without agriculture.

 

Anyone else have any thoughts?

 

/see: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?b...txsitmot0000001

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Crowding Out?

From The Times October 5, 2009

Hunger for biofuels will gobble up wheat surplus

Europe’s largest bioethanol refinery on Teesside will consume a tenth of the country’s annual harvest when it is builtRobin Pagnamenta,

Britain’s self-sufficiency in wheat will end next year, because a giant new biofuel refinery needs so much of the staple crop that home-grown supplies will be exhausted feeding both the factory and the nation.

The £300 million plant at Wilton, on Teesside, which is due to open this autumn, will be the largest bioethanol refinery in Europe and will consume a tenth of the country’s annual harvest, more than the national surplus.

Although the Ensus-built refinery expects to source all its wheat from the UK, the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said that so much grain would be required that Britain could become a net importer of the crop for the first time in its history.

Wilton will require 1.2 million tonnes of the crop to produce 450 million litres of wheat-based biofuels. Built with capital supplied by Carlyle Group and Riverstone Holdings, the American private equity companies, it will supply Shell with the renewable fuel for use in cars and lorries in Britain.

The British wheat harvest this year is expected to be just under 14 million tonnes, but, in a poor harvest, can fall to as low as 12 million tonnes. In recent years, UK wheat exports — which equate to the size of the annual surplus — have averaged between 500,000 and three million tonnes a year.

The huge extra demand created by the Ensus plant and another similar-sized refinery being built by BP in Hull will sharply cut net wheat exports from the UK. The two plants will consume about 2.3 million tonnes of so-called feed wheat between them every year, up to 19 per cent of the total UK crop.

In a poor harvest, Britain may need to meet domestic demand by shipping in extra supplies from other producers such as Canada or France, Ian Blackhouse, chairman of the NFU’s combinable crops board, said. “It’s more likely that we would have to import high-quality bread wheat.”

However, Mr Blackhouse welcomed the opening of the plants, saying that it was good news for British farmers and would help to support grain prices.

Demand for bioethanol is surging because of the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation, which requires 5 per cent of all vehicle fuel to come from biofuels by 2014.

Mark Worrell, head of wheat at Openfield, a company that acts as a middleman between farmers and wholesalers, said: “It will change the dynamics of supply and demand. In the UK we still have a surplus of grain for export, but UK demand is now going to increase.”

/more: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?i...003&from=71

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ARB TRADE?

I might short J.Deere (DE) ... update

zzzzy.png

 

and go long...

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Dr B, don't you think that Fugro is a better bet than PICO as a water exposure? Figro are respected specialists, whereas PICO look more like dilettantes.

http://www.fugro.com/

Schlumberger are pretty hard to beat, as they also have an interest in water - ties in with their oil & gas exploration expertise.

I do wish the market would drop. I am getting impatient waiting for it!

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(Old posting - from another thread : July 2018)

WHY is DBA / Agri-etf so Weak?

DBA / Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (ETF) ... from 1/2008 : Last: $17.48 / 12 mos.: 17.23 to 20.00

elwlpgs.gif

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund tracks an index of 10 agricultural commodity futures contracts.

It selects contracts based on the shape of the futures curve to minimize contango.

All 10 Holdings

Commodity : - Pct.- : Symbol :  07/23 : /DBA--- :
Soybean      : 14.15% : $soyb    : 862.7  : r-49.36 :
Cocoa          : 12.70% : $cocoa  : 2299. : r-131.5 :
Coffee 'C'     : 12.48% : $coffee : 1.117 : r-6.39% :
Wheat           : 11.88% : $wheat  :  513.8 : r-29.39 :
Live Cattle    : 11.66% :$bcomLC 66.50 : r-3.804 :
Sugar            : 11.40% : $sugar  :  0.111 : r-0.06% :
Corn              :   9.87% : $corn    :  371.3 : r-21.24 :
Lean Hogs    :  8.29% :$bcomLH  5.484 : r-31.4% :
Cattle Feeder : 4.23% :  ? ? ? :
Cotton No.2   : 3.34% : $cotton  :  86.81 : r-4.970 :

> source: http://etfdb.com/etf/DBA/

Top Five commodities - under price pressure
SOYB/ Soybeans
hGombcR.png
COCOA
xupqr6C.png
COFFEE
d3x5LG9.png
WHEAT
xx
LC / Live Cattle
xx

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(Old posting - from another thread : July 2018)

How much lower can Silver & Ags go?

Weekly DATA - Gold's erosion continues. DBA steady (for a change). BTC Up

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 : 06/29 :   07/06 :  07/20 :  07/27 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 : 1231.1 : 1223.0 : - 0.7%
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 118.86 : 116.56 : 115.83 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 275.42 : 279.86 : 281.43 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 :2718.4 : 2759.8 : 2801.8 : 2818.8 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 219.8% : 227.6% : 230.4% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $75.67 : $74.89 : $76.63 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $73.80 : $68.26 : $68.69 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.02 : r-18.04 : r-17.80 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.880 : $2.760 : $2.780 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.820 : $2.760 : $2.800 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 515.25 : 516.00 : 530.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 373.00 : 369.00 : 376.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.39 : 198.05 : 192.62 : 194.16 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.91: $17.44 : $17.47 : +0.2%
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.04% :   9.05% :  9.00% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 : r-4.121 : r-4.294 : r-4 386 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $93.97 : $94.30 : $94.67 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 122.75 : 120.76 : 119.46 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 : 1231.1 : 1223.0 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.532 : r-1.565 : r-1.54E : r-1.528 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE  : 819.04 : 802.24 : 800.EE : 800.20 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.06 : $22.68 : $21.31 : $20.94 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.31 :$22.61 : $21.78 : $21.32 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.70 : $33.50 : $32.09 : $31.92 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $28.88 : $29.45 : $28.09 : $27.53 : - 2.0%
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.910 : R1.953 : R1.925 : R1.89 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $15.08 : $14.59 : $14.57 : - 0.1%
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.200 : 16.070 : 15.550 : 15.490 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $5,883  : $6,564 : $7,463 : $8,143 : + 9.1%
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  : 04/27 :  06/01 :   06/29 :  07/06 :  07/20 :  07/27 :

DBA vs. SLV /(Agri.etf vs. Silver etf) ... update fr. 2.14.2017 : fr. 5.14.2015 :  fr. 5.24.2013 :

QDH3eQv.gif

update fr. 5.24.2013 :

cS8YCgM.gif

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AGs Down

The Agri fund has been a poor investment for years

Probably thanks to strong usd, & limited chinese buying of us agricultural products.

But in the past, there have been nice sharp spikes up. And we may see another

DBA / DB's Agri Fund ... all-data ...: Last, updated to March 13, 2019: $16.37

N9jfBQ5.gif

dxy vs dba - strong usd has pushed down dba

SsT8ri2.gif

dba -vs udn : update : DBA-$16.36/ UDN-$20.88 = Ratio: r-78.4%

csapyue.gif

xSLnLSv.png

dba -to crb

KEBydzY.png

==

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BG.    / Bunge Ltd ----------- : to D : $52.02 :

MsMByDp.gif

xx

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