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Gold Bulls - "Clawing the Sky" as prices fall

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Gold Bulls - "Clawing the Sky" as prices fall

Laser beam rallies generate complacency

====================================

 

Is today the day they will "ambush" Gold, after London trading closes?

If you have a stop at $1180, or even $1165, you may see it tested today

 

001eb.jpg..t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

Gold now: $1,172.

Some bulls here may find themselves "Clawing the sky"

 

I do have some puts on Gold stocks, and lightened up on my GLD call spread in recent days.

But I cannot really claim to be short Gold. The fall could be sharp and scary, as I said yesterday.

 

I am not enjoying this, but do think that it points out the dangers of complacency

 

== == ==

 

Support Levels from this chart ... GBS-update : GLD-update

zzzzx.gif

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Posted hours ago, when you still could have sold at near $1190

 

Complacency in Gold - as people keep speculating about HOW HIGH it might go...

 

Do you really think Gold is going to sidestep a global meltdown in Stock markets?

 

stock-market-the-ride-l.jpg

 

I bought a few puts on Gold stocks in the Canadian markets yesterday, while the US holiday was happening,

since I can see Carry-Trade-unwinds spreading to other markets

 

Japan and Korea's SM's are off 2% on Friday, and SPX is off 2%+ in overnight futures.

Most Americans assume the Friday after Thanksgiving will be an UP day (it usually is.)

So they take the day off, and dont think about their stocks until after the weekend.

 

The may have some real carnage to look at on Monday

 

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Down $30 in the blink of an eye. This would suggest that a lot of money going into gold here is of the "excess liquidity" kind that is going into near everything on the risk/ inflation trade.

 

With the threat of a risk averse trade [will be interesting to see if this scare morphs into one], the price of gold looks vulnerable. Way too many skittery weak speculators in this market.

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Get me outta here !! - say the Carry Trade boys !!

 

Eur ... update

zzzdi.png

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Down $30 in the blink of an eye. This would suggest that a lot of money going into gold here is of the "excess liquidity" kind that is going into near everything on the risk/ inflation trade.

 

With the threat of a risk averse trade [will be interesting to see if this scare morphs into one], the price of gold looks vulnerable. Way too many skittery weak speculators in this market.

 

Nearly every stop is going to get hit, if this keeps up, the fall is feeding on itself

 

Get me outta here !! - say the Carry Trade boys !!

 

zzzdi.png

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Hey Bubb, it's not that desperate is it? How about this pic instead? :lol:

Bungy1024x768.jpg

 

I wonder if there is a bungey cord in place?

Gold was down $44 a minute or two ago

 

As I surmised yesterday:

Gold's move

...

22 days "making a higher high, or closing higher" - is what he said.

...

We may see the biggest drop in Gold in many weeks, months, years tomorrow.

...If all those many stops start getting hit.

That's the problem with those prolonged one-way moves

 

This isnt "caused" by Dubai, it is driven by a huge speculative wave into Gold thinking it was a 1-way bet

zzzdu.png

 

I'd LOVE to have a photo of Jim Sinclair when someone interrupted his Turkey feast to tell him

that Gold was trading under $1,150.

 

I think I might read his blog today, to see what he has to say.

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Maybe we should show a fizzling rocket?

 

termvr.gif

What's the "drag coefficient" today??

 

CITY BONUSES ARE GOING TO DISAPPEAR FAST in this plunge, if it continues

 

The Gold bulls dont want to read this thread, it seems.

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The Gold bulls dont want to read this thread, it seems.

 

Probably because this is so blatantly a "haha I told you so thread"

 

My downside targets are 1075 which would be a retrace of this really (IMO) frothy move. At 1075 there is trendline support, previous highs from last consolidation and the 60 EMA.

 

Beyind that its around 1020 where the breakout started and the 150EMA.

 

How does that compare with anyone elses targets?

 

edit: the move in the last couple of weeks def needs to be scrubbed off IMO - below that I do see a hell of a lot of support on the chart.

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Probably because this is so blatantly a "haha I told you so thread"

 

My downside targets are 1075 which would be a retrace of this really (IMO) frothy move. At 1075 there is trendline support, previous highs from last consolidation and the 60 EMA.

 

Beyind that its around 1020 where the breakout started and the 150EMA.

 

How does that compare with anyone elses targets?

 

edit: the move in the last couple of weeks def needs to be scrubbed off IMO - below that I do see a hell of a lot of support on the chart.

 

Do you think I am not entitled to about a dozen of these threads, after the garbage I put up with,

just trying to WARN people about the dangers of complacency ??

I am not going to attack anyone personally (except maybe Sinclair, depending on what he says.)

 

I repeat, I am not short Gold so I make no money from this fall, and my sympathies to anyone who is stuck

with real losses (from stops getting hit), more than for those just giving up "fantasy profits" from an extended one-way run.

 

My downside targets are 1075 which would be a retrace of this really (IMO) frothy move. At 1075 there is trendline support, previous highs from last consolidation and the 60 EMA.

 

Beyind that its around 1020 where the breakout started and the 150EMA.

 

How does that compare with anyone elses targets?

 

edit: the move in the last couple of weeks def needs to be scrubbed off IMO - below that I do see a hell of a lot of support on the chart.

 

I will post some charts showing possible targets...

 

MEDIUM TERM, just repeating a posting from three days ago

A pullback in Gold from a high this week could lead to a buying opportunity in Dec. or January

 

Weekly Gold ... update

goldw.gif

 

SHORTER TERM,

zzzzi.gif

 

There's support and a GBS gap at near $1100

 

A BOUNCE back to $1165-1170 (or even higher) may be likely before we see lower levels

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Probably because this is so blatantly a "haha I told you so thread"

Yeah, but understandable though given the almost constant harping that "gold can only go one way" that is so often found on this forum.

 

My downside targets are 1075 which would be a retrace of this really (IMO) frothy move. At 1075 there is trendline support, previous highs from last consolidation and the 60 EMA.

 

Beyind that its around 1020 where the breakout started and the 150EMA.

 

How does that compare with anyone elses targets?

 

edit: the move in the last couple of weeks def needs to be scrubbed off IMO - below that I do see a hell of a lot of support on the chart.

If this turns into a full on scare with more selling then we could see the 900 handle revisited.

 

DXY up vertically from 74.20 to 75.50

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Do you think I am not entitled to about a dozen of these threads, after the garbage I put up with,

just trying to WARN people about the dangers of complacency ??

As a long time lurker I find your tone agressive both when you are right and when you are wrong.

 

It is something perhaps you need to look at. Rudyard Kipling and all that.

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thankfully all my laggard juniors popped this week and I sold them all nicely in the green. over the next couple of months should tell us if the Hoye v Prechter view will be right. It would seem reasonable that we will get a test of the 1000ish area again No?

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Well congrats there Bubb you got a call right. But hold on a second here you were actively telling people gold may be done here WAY BACK when gold was below $950!! And have been unimpressed nearly all the way up.

 

Fortunately I did my own thinking and came to a different conclusion so even after this fall out I am still massively up in fact about 25% up even after this fall. In order for me to be "clawing the sky" gold will have to fall below $950 and stay there. Do you really see that happening?

 

RH <- can you show me a specific set of posts that actually say gold ONLY goes up in a straight line.

 

I certainly knew this wasnt the case and Im actually enjoying this decline as I can now deploy more capital at lower prices.

 

Enjoy your day boys I know I am enjoying mine :)

 

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As a long time lurker I find your tone agressive both when you are right and when you are wrong.

 

It is something perhaps you need to look at. Rudyard Kipling and all that.

yep

 

is he right though - not that i have kept a record but wasnt he warning when gold was around 1000$

 

it could go below that but i doubt it

 

reminds me a bit of Gordon Brown saying that he was warning people of the instabilty in Global Banking 10 years ago

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The Gold bulls dont want to read this thread, it seems.

 

GEEZ! give us a chance to have breakfast Bubb! My god man you only started this thread a few hours ago and it was the middle of the night here. There will be plenty time for you to gloat.

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RH <- can you show me a specific set of posts that actually say gold ONLY goes up in a straight line.

The whole general tenor of the gold thread reads like a gold party celebrating the mere momentary nominal gains in gold. There is an almost complete lack of looking at the larger context in which those gains were made; how solid they were, who was buying and why, how macro developments or renewed crises might affect the price, what was to happen to the medium term as opposed to long term price, what would currency instability do to the price etc etc etc.

 

There does not seem to be much interest in discussion beyond fiat is toilet paper and gold is going to the moon.

 

Anyway, don't get me wrong I am a bull on gold... just that some caution is needed besides the hype. Say gold does go on a tear here, "imminent destruction of fiat" theory, predicting a parabolic rise, will hardly do this long term bull market justice by lacking both explanatory and predictive power, and probably also by failing to bolster investor's confidence when it is needed the most.

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The whole general tenor of the gold thread reads like a gold party celebrating the mere momentary nominal gains in gold. There is an almost complete lack of looking at the larger context in which those gains were made; how solid they were, who was buying and why, how macro developments or renewed crises might affect the price, what was to happen to the medium term as opposed to long term price, what would currency instability do to the price etc etc etc.

 

There does not seem to be much interest in discussion beyond fiat is toilet paper and gold is going to the moon.

 

Anyway, don't get me wrong I am a bull on gold... just that some caution is needed besides the hype.

true

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The whole general tenor of the gold thread reads like a gold party celebrating the mere momentary nominal gains in gold. There is an almost complete lack of looking at the larger context in which those gains were made; how solid they were, who was buying and why, how macro developments or renewed crises might affect the price, what was to happen to the medium term as opposed to long term price, what would currency instability do to the price etc etc etc.

The above is noise.

 

There does not seem to be much interest in discussion beyond fiat is toilet paper and gold is going to the moon.

The above is fundamental.

 

Who wants to waste ones time debating noise?

 

Anyway, don't get me wrong I am a bull on gold... just that some caution is needed besides the hype.

Are you a gold bull? You don't sound like one!!

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Not convinced gold's going anywhere NEAR $900 on a minor tremor caused by a "mere" $59bn liability (not default) by a tourist resort/building site in the middle of the desert. There appears to be only minor Western exposure to Dubai World so if there's to be any heavy selling in gold, it'll come once the sales figures from Black Friday in the US "surprise" analysts who've been expecting fireworks <_< .

 

Even then, there are lots of buyers hanging around including a central bank or two

 

 

 

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Gold Bulls - "Clawing the Sky" as prices fall

Laser beam rallies generate complacency

====================================

 

 

 

001eb.jpg..t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

Gold now: $1,172.

Some bulls here may find themselves "Clawing the sky"

 

I do have some puts on Gold stocks, and lightened up on my GLD call spread in recent days.

But I cannot really claim to be short Gold. The fall could be sharp and scary, as I said yesterday.

 

I am not enjoying this, but do think that it points out the dangers of complacency

you may come to regret that post

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Not convinced gold's going anywhere NEAR $900 on a minor tremor caused by a "mere" $59bn liability (not default) by a tourist resort/building site in the middle of the desert. There appears to be only minor Western exposure to Dubai World so if there's to be any heavy selling in gold, it'll come once the sales figures from Black Friday in the US "surprise" analysts who've been expecting fireworks <_< .

 

Even then, there are lots of buyers hanging around including a central bank or two

Dubai may not morph into the "big one". But it is a significant tremor nevertheless and warns of the real potential of a bigger quake to come. The odds have to be on another credit crisis at some point with all the massive debt and deflating economies. Don't believe the China hype.

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