Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

The Euro is Falling (FXE) - Tinyurl.com/EuroFall

Recommended Posts

The Euro (FXE) - An inevitable descent towards zero?

Charts, Political challeenges, and Trading ideas :: 4hrEUR

===================================

 

Zero? Maybe not. But I wouldn't rule out $1.16-1.20 / USD-92 or so.

Now that I have grabbed your attention, let's have a look at some charts

 

The US Dollar priced in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . :: Euro priced in USD

Eurodollar FX rate ----- ----- : USD, trade-weighted --- --- : Sterling --- Pounds per US$ : ...... Euros in usd, Daily : Euro = ?US$

exr24_eu_en_2.gif.idx24_usd_en_2.gif.24hr-gbp-small.gif.graph120.png

 

Inversions : 1.50 (fxe-66.67) to 1.25 (fxe-80.00), would be +20% / EUR-in-USD

1.60 = FXE 62.50

1.55 = FXE 64.52

1.50 = FXE 66.67 ... 1.51/e66.22 : 1.52/e65.79

1.45 = FXE 68.97 ... 1.46/e68.49 : 1.47/e68.03 : 1.48/e67.57 : 1.49/e67.11

1.40 = FXE 71.43

1.35 = FXE 74.07

1.30 = FXE 76.92

1.25 = FXE 80.00

1.20 = FXE 83.33

calc: http://www.math.com/students/calculators/source/basic.htm

 

FXE / Six Months, static chart ... update : 3yrs-FXE : 1yrFXE : 3moFXE : 10dFXE : 6moFXB : 6moFXY

003jh.png

 

$USD - DXY / Six Months, static chart ... update : 3yrs-$USD : 1yrDXY : 3moDXY : 10d / 3moUUP : 10d

002nf.png

 

Comment:

People talk about the inevitable weakness in the US Dollar. Are the fundamentals of the Euro much better?

The Euro is just over half (51%) of the Trade-weighted Dollar (USD)

 

Euro-in-JPY ... update : 3yrs-$USD

002n.png:graph120.png

 

 

Longer Term Euro charts

FXE ... update

001lo.png

 

The pattern seems to be that after a trend change, there are wild swings, the it falls into a channel.

A break of the channel signals a new trend change

 

USD-xeu-monthly-8-8-08.png

Euro, since the beginning : update : article

xeu2.png

 

== == ==

 

MANIC SWING Indicies, Daily:

#1 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI1-d3y / #2 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI2-d3y / #3 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI3-d3y

The "inverse one" : #4 : http://tinyurl.com/MSI4-d3y : http://tinyurl.com/msi4week

LINKS:

Clone thread on HPC :: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=130022

Analysis - EurJpy#1. :: http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/eurjpy : Futures

Tech Analysis, FX .... :: http://www.fx360.com/techAnalysis/

Forex Nitty Gritty Adv :: http://www.forexnittygritty.com/home15.php...er2.php&x=1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOLD in Euros

: Gold, in US$ ------------------ : Gold-in-Euros ------------------- :

.t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif.tny_au_en_euoz_2.gif.

 

Gold-in-Euros ... update : 3yr.Gold-FXE :

001pr.png

 

== ==

 

US STOCK INDICIES / SPX in Euros

 

001m.png

 

Close-up- static

002cd.png

== ==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Potential Troubles for the Euro? - the Euro is over 50% of USD, the trade-weight Dollar's basket

 

+ Many european countries find it tough to compete with the US and China with the Euro at/near $1.50

 

+ No single country has full responsibility, standing behind the Euro, and would be able to raise interest rates and taxes to sustain its value. Who is its backer of last result?

 

+ The credit crisis is a global phenomenon, and the European banks are more levered than US banks, and have done less than the US banks to repair their balance sheets

 

+ European banks, and macro hedge funds have used the dollar as a borrowing currency for "carry trade purchases" of Euro denominated loans, equities, and property. When the dollar turns higher, there may be a sudden urgency to cover thos loans, which will mean selling down the assets for Euros, and using the Euros to buy dollars. This will put upwards pressure on the Dollar, and downwards pressure on the Euro.

 

+ East European countries like Latvia, Estonia, and Bulgaria, waiting to come into the European community are in serious financial crises, and their major lenders are mostly European banks

 

/source of some of this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/98895-big-...es-for-the-euro

 

== == ==

 

This interview from Financial Sense, makes many relevant points about the future strength of the Dollar / weakness of the Euro.

 

christian.gif

Jeffrey M. Christian, Founder (CPM Group)

Topic: Gold Fundamentals ... and the Dollar

MP3 : http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1107-3b.mp3

 

Although Christian expects stocks to go to SPX-1200 and Gold to $1200 per ounce within this year. if you listen carefully and with a contrarian frame of mind, you will hear many points which sound very bullish for the Dollar.

 

+ JC expects a pop in the USD of 10% or more, sometime next year when the US economy begins to recover

+ He thinks in the next up-phase could take US interest rates to 7% or more

+ Central banks and big funds have now turned buyers of Gold (the record shows CB's buy at the top)

 

Q: If these guys are so smart, why have they waited for Gold to rise 4x before buying?

 

Jim Puplava, in reference to : John Paulson, Einhorn, and Tudor Jones ... says "these guys arent day traders".

Well, they are bigger than day traders, but frankly, they are not known for being buy-and-hold investors, and then

tend to exit positions quickly, when they go against them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Base Metals and MSI Indicators - in US$

 

Copper, in US$ , 12 months : Copper, in US$ --------------- : Zinc, in US$ ------------------ : Aluminum, in US$ -------------- :

spot-copper-1y.gif.copper-d.gif.zinc-d.gif.aluminum-d.gif

 

I still watch these MS indicators, and they have still not rolled over yet.

 

MSI#2: The Copper/Libor ratio, may be ready to do that ... 3yr-MSI#1

001h.png

 

In edit: Copper has just hit $3.00! (again) and Gold is at $1,116 - a new high !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Base Metals and MSI Indicators - in US$

I still watch these MS indicators, and they have still not rolled over yet.

MSI#2: The Copper/Libor ratio, may be ready to do that:

 

At some point the euro will weaken versus the dollar.

 

Meanwhile according to the calculated risk blogg this morning embedded in the latest status of california report is a report saying that banks/commerce in california are heading towards a crisis of unprecedented proportions.

 

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/...verview-of.html

 

But in Finland you can borrow money pretty easily and half the rates of those in the USA. There is no sense of crisis here and it is like nothing at all has changed..........unless it has changed for you if you are one of the people who lost work. My brother in law was made redundant and is working now from Goa in India via the internet. My wifes boss's husband was made redundant and now works with my wife. So the only two people i know who lost work found other work one way or another. It seems like nothing has changed here. Traffic is the same full shops are still full. The local equipment hire shop tells me that they are doing more work but at lower prices because big firms are not employing and the smaller firms are taking on the workers or something like that.

 

Whatever is happening here is happening in a way that is not visible. My bank Nordea reported good earnings and lower than expected loan losses with no implications for a crisis for them in the Baltics.

 

People reporting with negative expectations on Finnish property have just been wrong more or less. Athough i believe there have been softening of prices for some types of detached houses.

 

Whatever comes to Finland is likely to come later with such low interest rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
At some point the euro will weaken versus the dollar.

 

Meanwhile according to the calculated risk blogg this morning embedded in the latest status of california report is a report saying that banks/commerce in california are heading towards a crisis of unprecedented proportions.

But in Finland you can borrow money pretty easily and half the rates of those in the USA. There is no sense of crisis here and it is like nothing at all has changed...

 

Finland sounds like HK, but one important difference is that the HK$ is linked to the US$,

and I suppose that the weak HK$ is helping the property market here, which looks fairly strong, although the HK govt,

has now decided to try to talk it down, and tighten some lending here.

 

Anyway, as you can see, the USD$ has dropped again today to fresh lows, and is now at Eur.0.6652

It could be signalling another pop up in stocks, and I am hoping maybe a turn later today, as RonWalker has suggested

== ==

 

A GREAT CHARTING RESOURCE ?

 

I have put loads of chart links, and some "Live" charts into the first few posts here, so people can use this thread

as a means of tracking the FX market, and especially the Euro - which just might be a great short in the days, weeks,

and months to come.

 

Here are some examples of some of the charts you can get here

 

Euro/FXE -Daily ... update

zzzzq.gif

 

Euro/FXE -10 day ... update / FXE-150.6 = FXY-66.40

xx1w.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro Facts:

 

15th July 2008 High 1.60380 (double top)

 

If EURUSD closes above 1.50336 then it has retraced 73.6% of its high. This will act as support to attempt to break the longterm double top.

 

Compared to usd, euro is an angel. However, it will still be going down compared to gold though.

 

I think you were looking for a bottom in usdx, and now are looking for a top in eurodollar. I think you need to take a step back bubb and have a cool, calm look at it again.

 

The trend is your friend. Treat her well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Euro Facts:

15th July 2008 High 1.60380 (double top)

If EURUSD closes above 1.50336 then it has retraced 73.6% of its high. This will act as support to attempt to break the longterm double top.

Compared to usd, euro is an angel. However, it will still be going down compared to gold though.

 

I think you were looking for a bottom in usdx, and now are looking for a top in eurodollar. I think you need to take a step back bubb and have a cool, calm look at it again. The trend is your friend. Treat her well.

 

Sure ... until the end.

What will you be using to determine where the ending point is?

 

My style is to try to catch the turns. Sometimes I do it, and sometimes not.

 

I have no position in the Euro at the moment, so this detailed look is intended to help me see whether the potential turn in the USD,

is also showing in the Euro charts, and I think that it is.

 

My target now is: Eur.150.6-151.0, and we are more-or-less there now.

 

All these markets are related, I think. And you can see that Gold is up today, and stocks (FTSE) is up also.

If the dollar stays this weak on the NY opening, then I would certainly expect SPX to pop to 1100 or higher.

 

This is shaping up to be a very important day. And I cannot rule out a breakout, though I do not expect that

 

========================================

In edit: What actually happened?

aa2nu.gif

......FXE ... update

......aa1d.gif

 

 

HISTORICAL RECORD - Posted on the Yelnick thread, marking a possible top

 

I think we have just seen an important low in the US dollar, and high in the Euro.

 

If the thrust continues, you are likely to see selling accelerate in stocks.

 

I have spent several hours constructing a thread to help my fellow GEI friends track the emerging downwards move in the Euro : http://tinyurl.com/EuroFall

 

Posted by: Nathan D.R. Bubb | Wednesday, November 11, 2009 at 08:13 AM (just before the NY opening)

 

/see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11...t.html#comments

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sure ... until the end.

What will you be using to determine where the ending point is?

 

My style is to try to catch the turns. Sometimes I do it, and sometimes not.

 

I have no position in the Euro at the moment, so this detailed look is intended to help me see whether the potential turn in the USD,

is also showing in the Euro charts, and I think that it is.

 

My target now is: Eur.150.6-151.0, and we are more-or-less there now.

 

All these markets are related, I think. And you can see that Gold is up today, and stocks (FTSE) is up also.

If the dollar stays this weak on the NY opening, then I would certainly expect SPX to pop to 1100 or higher.

 

This is shaping up to be a very important day. And I cannot rule out a breakout, though I do not expect that

 

I have been taught that trading is not prediction. I look for strong trends, hop on them and ride them for as long as possible. I use trailing stops in order to lock in gains. More often than not you get another chance to ride the same bus. When she ends I don't know, but by that time I get used to the bumps in the road, and any change in behaviour is very obvious to me and my account balance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TROUBLE SPOTS & INDICES / charts to track these?

 

(USD sector)

California - looks very grim, are there charts for credit spreads?

Property returns

PropertyReturns.jpg : CR-blog

 

(FXE sector)

Latvia/Estonia : Baltic market Indices : Baltic/Riga/Tallin

Bulgaria : SOFIX : Press Digest

 

European Stock markets

UKX : Ftse-100 : intraday : 10d : 6mos : Weekly : Monthly : Qtrly

DAX : Intraday : 10d : Daily-12mos : Weekly : Monthly : Quarterly

CAC : Intraday : 10d : Daily-6mos : Weekly : Monthly : Quarterly

Other Intraday : 10d : Daily-12mos : Weekly : Monthly : Quarterly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have been taught that trading is not prediction. I look for strong trends, hop on them and ride them for as long as possible. I use trailing stops in order to lock in gains. More often than not you get another chance to ride the same bus. When she ends I don't know, but by that time I get used to the bumps in the road, and any change in behaviour is very obvious to me and my account balance.

 

Not everyone uses trend following techniques.

And there are many ways to make money in markets.

 

Of course, sometimes whichever technique you use does not work.

Hence, I tend to use options, or small positions, when I am trying to catch a market turn.

 

I am curious what you will use to tell you that the trend in the Euro (or anything else) has turned?

 

The extraordinary extremes in sentiment have alerted me to a possible turn, but to be fair, they have been ON the extremes

for quite a long time. I think it is rather reckless for the US to make it so easy for Dollar bears to make money, but the

market is-what-it-is right now.

 

Let me give you some background.

 

I started a thread (on another board) with the following title: Has the Dollar topped? / Dollar in Trouble

on this day: 09 Jul'01 - 06:35*

 

Please look at the following chart, and observe when the high came in:

Long term USD chart ... original chart

usdz.png

...My original comment: 9 July 2001...

THE LONG RALLY IN THE DOLLAR MAY BE OVER. The US is

the world's largest debtor nation and there has been an alarming

(and rising) trade deficit. IMHO, the fall in the dollar will be as

important (or more so) than the fall in the NASDAQ. There will be

an impact upon commodity prices, oil shares, and mining shares.

Chart Comment: Friday's reversal at just above USD-121, continuing

into today, plus the Elliott Wave formation, suggests to me

that it may be over for the dollar.

 

The Euro bottomed as the Dollar peaked

aa2sc8.gif

 

That was only one example, I have hit precise turns with new threads several times.

The threads give me a source of charts to track the market after the Turn, and trade it then too.

 

If I am early, then I will simply have a resource that I do not need to use for some time.

 

*This chart helped me to nail the top

DX.GIF

 

Notice anything interesting about where we are today??

 

These EurUsd charts are rather good ... update-4hr / sm : 15min / sm : 5min / sm :: Link : EURst

zzzz.gif

 

A high near $1.506 (FXE-xx.xx) seems a real possibility /// USD - Advfn

 

xx1n.gif

 

Weekly FXE ... update : Wk-1year : Daily-1year : Daily-3mos : Hrly-10d

aa2s.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not everyone uses trend following techniques.

And there are many ways to make money in markets.

 

Of course, sometimes whichever technique you use does not work.

Hence, I tend to use options, or small positions, when I am trying to catch a market turn.

 

I am curious what you will use to tell you that the trend in the Euro (or anything else) has turned?

 

The extraordinary extremes in sentiment have alerted me to a possible turn, but to be fair, they have been ON the extremes

for quite a long time. I think it is rather reckless for the US to make it so easy for Dollar bears to make money, but the

market is-what-it-is right now.

 

My main 'behaviour' change indicator will be when/if my AUDUSD long gets stopped with its trailing stop-loss.

 

Bought at 0.91830, Trailing stop above entry (so will make money regardless due to earning interest) and curent price is 0.93200.

 

I am sure the powers that be would love to engineer a USD rally, but the pain it would cause to all other countries would mean that this course of action will not be taken. Of course there is also the uncertainty that a complete fiat money collapse would reignite gold as money to a wider audience, which would not suit or be part of the fiat is money programme.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My main 'behaviour' change indicator will be when/if my AUDUSD long gets stopped with its trailing stop-loss.

 

Bought at 0.91830, Trailing stop above entry (so will make money regardless due to earning interest) and curent price is 0.93200.

 

I am sure the powers that be would love to engineer a USD rally, but the pain it would cause to all other countries would mean that this course of action will not be taken. Of course there is also the uncertainty that a complete fiat money collapse would reignite gold as money to a wider audience, which would not suit or be part of the fiat is money programme.

 

Okay.

I went long AUD at 61 cents last year, and covered a few days ago: half at 90.35 and half at 90.75 cents. I am happy with that return.

I now hold some March puts on AUD

 

"...uncertainty that a complete fiat money collapse would reignite gold as money to a wider audience"

 

Sure. But Gold-in-Euros remains below its high.

And it is very possible on my view that Gold in Dollars will drop, and Gold-in-Euros goes sideways for weeks or months

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Finland sounds like HK, but one important difference is that the HK$ is linked to the US$,

and I suppose that the weak HK$ is helping the property market here, which looks fairly strong, although the HK govt,

has now decided to try to talk it down, and tighten some lending here.

 

I would like to emphasise that Finland has alot of problems but they are not visible to me or to people I have contact with. One firm doing quite well in terms of buying stuff is Wartisla who make ships engines and power plants. I would guess a booming china will likely mean they continue to do well but i see the Greeks are talking about a 40% cancellation in existing world ship orders to make the current oversupply manageable. Many firms including Wartsila have had rounds of redundancy that have gone thru at least two rounds in some cases - whereas the initial talk august last year was for temporary layoffs with 6 month review.

 

I would say if finland is a success story then look out below.

 

Hong Kong seems like boom town. China has doubled bank lending for 2009 but it seems they are now moving towards a tightening bias. Finland has a reasonable trade with China but as of last year Finnair was cancelling flights to China due to insufficient demand. Since then there has been a massive stimulus but Finnair still dont seem to be doing well and have worker relationship problems to boot - i would say that would be unusual for Finland- the pilots are striking or about to strike - odd given the economic realities.

 

Also in the context of California being in trouble it is the 8th largest economy in the world. The baltics are more or less nothing by comparison and yet you can approximately compare the euro area to the USA. However California problems might be more related to state income difficulties than they are manufacturing difficulties if china is going full blast to stimulate the economy.

 

Things are messy as we know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Also in the context of California being in trouble it is the 8th largest economy in the world. The baltics are more or less nothing by comparison and yet you can approximately compare the euro area to the USA. However California problems might be more related to state income difficulties than they are manufacturing difficulties if china is going full blast to stimulate the economy.

 

California has its problems, but I dont think it is imploding (yet) to the same extent as the Baltic and Balkin countries.

The implosion waits in the future, but not until Dollar Oil prices start shooting up, maybe in 2011 or 2012.

 

The real problem is the B&B countries have loads of property related debt, denominated in Euros, where the property

is now well under-water. The over-geared banks with these loans, are reluctant the recognise their losses, because

they are short of capital

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
California has its problems, but I dont think it is imploding (yet) to the same extent as the Baltic and Balkin countries.

The implosion waits in the future, but not until Dollar Oil prices start shooting up, maybe in 2011 or 2012.

 

The real problem is the B&B countries have loads of property related debt, denominated in Euros, where the property

is now well under-water. The over-geared banks with these loans, are reluctant the recognise their losses, because

they are short of capital

 

Nordea said about 6 months ago that all of its lending into Latvia was in local currency.

 

I wonder to what extent many of these horror stories were just to ensure governments stepped in one way or another and there do seem to be political dimensions to some of the statements made.

 

No doubt some traders are positioned to profit from spreading stories also.

 

The Swedish finance minister said a few weeks ago that Sweden and nordic banking was committed to the baltic region. Which probably means that the nordics and poland will support the baltics as they did Iceland which might account for why poland supported iceland with the nordics.......because it was part of the deal to stabilise polands neighbours with the nordics help

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

... from DrBubb's Diary ...

 

zzzze.gif

 

Turn, turn, turn here... please ... update

 

Here too ... FXE-update

003yu.png

 

STU... likes the 10,334-10,495 area for a top. (closed at 10,246.97. HOD: 10,260.80) Note that 10,334 is the point of a 50% retracement of the drop.

 

He talks about a similar zone at SPX.1100-1121, with SPX-1121 being a 50% retracement. (closed at 1,093.01)

"the down-sloping trendline from October 2007 crosses 1102.86 tomorrow (using intraday extremes) and is down to 1100.16 by next Monday"

 

INDU: 10,320.81 Change: +73.84 / Open: 10,247.42 High: 10,341.97 :: close enough to 10,334

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(As posted just now on the Yelnick thread):

 

xeub.png

 

I think we have just seen an important low in the US dollar, and high in the Euro.

If the thrust continues, you are likely to see selling accelerate in stocks.

 

I have spent several hours constructing a thread to help my fellow GEI friends track the emerging downwards move in the Euro : http://tinyurl.com/EuroFall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The USDX is made up largely from the EUR/USD

us-dollar-index-weights.gif

 

Right. The Euro is the key one to watch.

Some of the others (C$, Yen) may have turned earlier

 

XEU ... update

aa1oh.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A dangerous policy, if he is right - will the market accommodate this? For how long?

 

From http://jsmineset.com/2009/11/11/market-com...monty-guild-52/

 

TO PUT IT MILDLY, WE WERE SHOCKED

 

Does the Obama Administration want the U.S. dollar to decline? We believe it does. On November 5th, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that they intend to keep “interest rates exceptionally low” for an “extended period of time.” Given that the U.S. Dollar is already under pressure due to low interest rates, the Fed’s announcement is the equivalent of saying: “go ahead and short the dollar”. In our opinion, it is clear that this announcement ushers in a period of extreme volatility and a continued downward bias for the U.S. Dollar.

 

During the Clinton and GW Bush administrations, it was common for U.S. Treasury officials to make statements about the need for a strong dollar. Historically, financial leaders have been circumspect about declaring that their currency is overvalued. This is especially true for countries like the U.S. where the government is trying to sell trillions of dollars of debt to investors to finance the immense current and expected future budget deficits. We therefore find it shocking that the world’s most important central bank has made statements that strongly encourage a decline in its currency.

 

However, an examination of the current administration’s economic approach provides a possible reason. On November 2nd 2009, President Obama called for a new “post bubble growth model” with a greater focus on exports, and referenced the fact that Germany, which he called “a wealthy, highly unionized industrial nation,” has been a very successful exporter. It does not take a rocket scientist to understand that his goals include more unionization and more exports. And because U.S. union workers are in general much more generously compensated than non-union workers, we believe that the only way that the U.S. can achieve higher exports is to devalue the dollar. We therefore believe that it is a goal of the Obama administration to see the dollar decline.

 

These events add credence to our view that one should avoid the U.S. dollar for major cash balances and instead hold the Australian, Canadian, Norwegian and Brazilian currencies. We also continue to believe that investors should continue to hold oil, gold, and foreign stocks for the long term. In our opinion, the profits in these areas may be just beginning to occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TROUBLE SPOTS & INDICES / charts to track these?

 

(USD sector)

California - looks very grim, are there charts for credit spreads?

Property returns

PropertyReturns.jpg : CR-blog

Ten most troubled states in the U.S.

 

By Tami Luhby, CNNMoney.com senior writer / November 11, 2009

 

The same economic pressures that pushed California to the brink of insolvency are wreaking havoc on other states, a new report has found.

 

And how state officials deal with their fiscal problems could reverberate across the United States, according to the Pew Center on the States' analysis released Wednesday.

 

The 10 most troubled states are: Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.

 

Other states -- including Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, New York and Hawaii -- were not far behind.

 

The list is based on several factors, including the loss of state revenue, size of budget gaps, unemployment and foreclosure rates, poor money management practices, and state laws governing the passage of budgets.

 

These troubles have forced these states -- as well as many others -- to raise taxes, lay off or furlough state workers and slash services. These actions can slow down the nation's recovery, especially since these 10 states account for one-third of the country's population and economic output.

 

"Decisions these states make as they try to navigate the recession will play a role in how quickly the entire nation recovers," said Susan Urahn, managing director of Pew Center on the States.

 

In a separate study released Wednesday, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found that states will likely have to make steep cuts in their fiscal 2011 budgets, which start next July 1 in most states. That's because the critical federal stimulus dollars will run out by the end of 2010.

 

These cuts could take nearly a percentage point off the national gross domestic product and cost the nation 900,000 jobs, the study found.

 

10 troubled states

 

Here's a summary of what Pew found is plaguing each of the states: (see link)

 

/see: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ten-most-tro...ml?x=0&.v=7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 Euros says you are wrong

Deal?

 

zzzznx.gif

 

Are you sure you want to bet?

Over what period would this apply?

I would want to choose a point which is the same distance below, as the top was above,

and which ever limit get hit first would determine the winner.

 

The price was above $1.495 when you posted that. How about $1.505 and $1.485 ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
zzzznx.gif

 

Are you sure you want to bet?

Over what period would this apply?

I would want to choose a point which is the same distance below, as the top was above,

and which ever limit get hit first would determine the winner.

 

The price was above $1.495 when you posted that. How about $1.505 and $1.485 ?

 

Obviously it can go lower than 1.485 but i think we are going to see more than 1.55 before this is done. You were implying 1.5051? was the high for some considerably significant time as well as saying other pairs had seen the highs. The challenge was to say it (and others) will go higher than 1.5051 so that it will not be seen as being part of a significant low in the dollar pairs.

 

My reason being that the USA still continues to have major challenges, For example NY is not in the 10 worst states but is in the 'also bad states' but the governor is talking about unpredecented financial challenges

 

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/...-financial.html

 

They need a weaker dollar and if other countries can manage i think they will be allowed to have it. China for example would be fine with a weaker dollar since then they are getting inflationary pressures requiring tightening.

 

And you said about a week ago that if gold remained above 1114 then pixel was entitled to bonus points. I think we could see his 1350 before this is done. As of last night 1114 was barely penetrated but already that high is history.

 

Even so i think your call is not so far wrong and this thing will only stretch so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×