drbubb Posted August 13, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2010 Do you guys own? Did you migrate here from HPC also? I just changed the name of this thread to: UK Property - The former HPC addicts' thread It seemed appropriate somehow, and I will move it to MAIN until interest wanes. (Note: I am currently under a voluntary suspension at HPC after my thread talking about an August stock crash got rubbished there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meralti Posted August 13, 2010 Report Share Posted August 13, 2010 Teetering on the edge of something very nasty, is my humble opinion. Auction prices indicate that you're right... The discount between homes under the hammer and the wider market was 19% in July, widening from 18% in June and 15% in May. By comparison, it plunged to 40% several months before the wider market hit rock bottom in March 2009. Also the Acadametrics index has been revised down. In fact, prices are shown here to have been almost flat all this year, which isn't what they were reporting a few month ago. See here The highs that were supposedly achieved in 2010 have now been smoothed out of the Academetrics series almost completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 13, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2010 ... the Acadametrics index has been revised down. In fact, prices are shown here to have been almost flat all this year, which isn't what they were reporting a few month ago. The highs that were supposedly achieved in 2010 have now been smoothed out of the Academetrics series almost completely. UK Builder share prices are also rather weak. / Chart-BDEV,PSN,BKG ... and may soon break to fresh Lows for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted August 13, 2010 Report Share Posted August 13, 2010 I just changed the name of this thread to: UK Property - The former HPC addicts' thread :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 13, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2010 :lol: Help's here. Instead of methadone, take a dose of GEI - You will feel better, & sleep better (in the long run). The fever may die down soon. We may move back into a sliding channel (red) ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted August 14, 2010 Report Share Posted August 14, 2010 I've bought completely sick of the BOE comments regarding inflation being "temporary" whilst its been over target for 2 years (5% RPI is far too high for me when 7% will double prices in 10 years) Gone with HSBC's lowest ever 5 year fix at 3.95% and borrowing currently 0.5 - 1 times my income, kept some cash aside, gold, mining, oil and solid dividend paying stocks so I'm hedged for hopefully most possibilities. I'm still expecting further falls (we've had 20% round here and I'm happy to take another 20%) but Ive bought something which suits my current lifstyle and can trade up when I'm older. The mortgage is also half my current rent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted August 14, 2010 Report Share Posted August 14, 2010 The fever may die down soon. We may move back into a sliding channel (red) ... Cheers Bubb. The builders look weak, the market looks sick.. tic tock tic Only problem is they didn't let them crash much last time, I can't see them letting them crash much this time either. Perhaps 10-15% nominal at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 15, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2010 Cheers Bubb. The builders look weak, the market looks sick.. tic tock tic Only problem is they didn't let them crash much last time, I can't see them letting them crash much this time either. Perhaps 10-15% nominal at best They keep hitting that "floor" and may break through it, this time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted August 15, 2010 Report Share Posted August 15, 2010 I've bought completely sick of the BOE comments regarding inflation being "temporary" whilst its been over target for 2 years (5% RPI is far too high for me when 7% will double prices in 10 years) Gone with HSBC's lowest ever 5 year fix at 3.95% and borrowing currently 0.5 - 1 times my income, kept some cash aside, gold, mining, oil and solid dividend paying stocks so I'm hedged for hopefully most possibilities. I'm still expecting further falls (we've had 20% round here and I'm happy to take another 20%) but Ive bought something which suits my current lifstyle and can trade up when I'm older. The mortgage is also half my current rent. Fair play. We bought last Autumn at ~30% below peak (for a combination of factors I have explained previously). Very glad we did and very happy with the decision. We too expect there could be another 20% fall (from now), but with the changes we have made to the property (including converting from non-traditional to traditional build status) the latest valuations have been above expectations and will enable us to easily handle a 20% fall with no worries. The non-trad to trad means we can now remortgage and fix for 10 years at ~ 2 times earnings (limited lending applied before) which we will do in the next 3-12 months, leaving enough in the bank to invest and keep as a buffer if TSHTF in a big way. Great house in a great location, looking out today with the sun on the hills. In fact, I think I'm going to go and climb one of them. See you later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted August 15, 2010 Report Share Posted August 15, 2010 Pidgeley saying one week that the market has bottomed, and now this? But to be fair, he did say that he felt the housing, not land, market had bottomed. However, IMO land prices bottom about 12-18 months before sales prices. So inconsistency is in the air... "Berkeley boss disagrees with Knight Frank prediction that values will stabilise in the summer The market for residential land housing is unlikely to recover this year, according to Berkeley Group chief executive Tony Pidgley. But the housebuilder, who famously predicted the nineties recession, said actual house sales were beginning to pick up, as average house prices had reached a more affordable level of four times income. He added that they would improve further once mortgage markets eased. This followed his comments last month that the housing market was “very close to the bottom”. He said: “We are being very selective, but we have bought probably 10 sites in total.” He added: “I cannot see the residential land market recovering this year. Is the bottom of the market in the summer? The answer is no.” Pidgley’s assessment followed a report by property consultant Knight Frank, which predicted the market for residential land would drop a further 10% before stabilising in the summer. The report, published last week, said land values had halved over the year and fallen 15% in the last quarter, with the biggest drops seen on very high-value sites in London. Jon Neale, head of development research at Knight Frank, said few sites were selling because developers could not raise bank finance and sellers were waiting for better market conditions before disposing of sites. He predicted the number of transactions would grow once the market stabilised. David Pretty, former chief executive of Barratt and now chair of the New Homes Marketing Board, agreed with Knight Frank’s predictions. He added that he would buy sites for first-time buyers and social housing if he were still a housebuilder. “For those with cash, it is a good time to buy selectively and drive the hardest of bargains with landowners.” However, the chief executive of Crest Nicholson thought land values had already reached their lowest point, with house prices not far behind. Stephen Stone said: “I believe we are near the trough and land is probably factored in at the bottom now.” Boy, Piddgley was good. Had Berkeley shares several times over the years, (sold last of when he quit). Even allowed his thoughts to influence my home buying/selling decisions. Wish I knew his views now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 15, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2010 Boy, Piddgley was good. Had Berkeley shares several times over the years, (sold last of when he quit). Even allowed his thoughts to influence my home buying/selling decisions. Wish I knew his views now. Ask Fred Harrison. TP used to follow Fred's cycles, I believe Apr 15 2009, 09:04 AM) Pidgeley saying one week that the market has bottomed, and now this? But to be fair, he did say that he felt the housing, not land, market had bottomed. However, IMO land prices bottom about 12-18 months before sales prices. So inconsistency is in the air... ...He added that they would improve further once mortgage markets eased. This followed his comments last month that the housing market was “very close to the bottom”. He said: “We are being very selective, but we have bought probably 10 sites in total.” Maybe he was following my GER Podcast of 1-2 weeks earlier. Haha! / Link: 4 April 2009 Recording Some on HPC seem to want to belittle my forecasts, but if you look closely, they have been very accurate since mid 2007, at least. The biggest miss was calling a top prematurely in about Sept.2005. I got a clear sell signal from the UK Builders that lasted about 1 day, before it was reversed. And it took me several weeks of gains in their share prices before I believed that the Top was really delayed. BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... update : 2009-10 That was when the BofE cut rates by 25bp, and gave the market the fuel for one more "last gasp" rally. What a monumental mistake it was in making that rate cut. Fred Harrison somehow had predicted a "buyers curse" final rally and a top in 2007-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 Ask Fred Harrison. TP used to follow Fred's cycles, I believe Maybe he was following my GER Podcast of 1-2 weeks earlier. Haha! / Link: 4 April 2009 Recording Some on HPC seem to want to belittle my forecasts, but if you look closely, they have been very accurate since mid 2007, at least. The biggest miss was calling a top prematurely in about Sept.2005. I got a clear sell signal from the UK Builders that lasted about 1 day, before it was reversed. And it took me several weeks of gains in their share prices before I believed that the Top was really delayed. That was when the BofE cut rates by 25bp, and gave the market the fuel for one more "last gasp" rally. What a monumental mistake it was in making that rate cut. Fred Harrison somehow had predicted a "buyers curse" final rally and a top in 2007-8. I know that I listened to that podcast, very good call. One of the problems with HPC is the perma bears that wont accept that things dont usually go in straight lines and that gains can be made even in bear markets. HPC really helped me learn about the market in it's early days. I remember Bubb, BP, RB, LLL, TTRTR, bruno, and the original property guru (not forgetting some of the other posters here) etc etc and the battles they had. Don't know if it's me, but it always seemed better natured than it is now. In fact the Saturday night banter on HPC was hillarious. Trouble is, as time went on, and the crash began, new posters arrived and the arguments started to cycle around again and again and the mood changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthV Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 I used to post there under another name - but that was ages ago ! I got bored with it 2-3 years ago, as the market slide began. Imagine whining about renting for 5-6 years? It must be frustrating. You either have to find something cheap enough, and buy it. Or just get on with your life, and accept that it is okay to be a renter. I will only buy when Estate Agents are going out of business, and I can buy and rent more cheaply than renting. All the while, I am saving, saving, and saving by renting. Sometimes I have had to move, but I always find somewhere cheaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 It always depends on the cirumstances. People who buy for living in it and with a lot of equity, I see not much of a problem, even if waiting could have been "better" in financial terms. Personally, I am renting (not in the UK). The people who live above my flat have lived there for at least 25 years. It also always depends on your jurisdiction. My neighbours from above have at least a 9-months notice. So, you also can't just be thrown out from one month to the next. On top of that, they could only be thrown out if the owner could prove that one of his family members moved into the flat. So, you can't just flip, or if so, only with the renter staying in it. I personally have more utility from renting right now (also financially, as far as I can see). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 I hear volume is very low, especially in places like Edinburgh. Is this true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
absolutezero Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 (Note: I am currently under a voluntary suspension at HPC after my thread talking about an August stock crash got rubbished there.) Try having an involuntary permanent ban for annoying people! I'm a "political troll", whatever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 Try having an involuntary permanent ban for annoying people! I'm a "political troll", whatever that is. You you you mean the tories won't save us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
absolutezero Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 You you you mean the tories won't save us? Indeed. They'll shaft you. More than the last lot did. Say that over there and they'll remove your posting rights. For a forum that bangs on about liberty and free speech they're not keen on other people having theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 16, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 Indeed. They'll shaft you. More than the last lot did. Say that over there and they'll remove your posting rights. For a forum that bangs on about liberty and free speech they're not keen on other people having theirs. You are free to post that, But do you really think they could mess things up more than Labor has? Brown was the worst PM in history after being the worse chancellor - all IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 It always depends on the cirumstances. People who buy for living in it and with a lot of equity, I see not much of a problem, even if waiting could have been "better" in financial terms. Personally, I am renting (not in the UK). The people who live above my flat have lived there for at least 25 years. It also always depends on your jurisdiction. My neighbours from above have at least a 9-months notice. So, you also can't just be thrown out from one month to the next. On top of that, they could only be thrown out if the owner could prove that one of his family members moved into the flat. So, you can't just flip, or if so, only with the renter staying in it. I personally have more utility from renting right now (also financially, as far as I can see). Were the same opportunities available here, we might well be renting still. Then again, equity not a big problem, so had the same house been available, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted August 16, 2010 Report Share Posted August 16, 2010 I hear volume is very low, especially in places like Edinburgh. Is this true? Not sure about Edinburgh, we are the "other side", but were over there for the Jazz Festival a couple of weeks ago and the volume there was just right. Nice . Apparently it was very quiet here at the start of the traditional holiday season (end June) but then went very busy a month or so ago. A couple of friends have recently sold (and bought) after being on market for a few months. Quite a few sold signs went up over that period too, but that’s in the G61 & G62 area, so not necessarily the same all over. That said, the number of properties on sale in the area is still about the same as the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
absolutezero Posted August 17, 2010 Report Share Posted August 17, 2010 You are free to post that, But do you really think they could mess things up more than Labor has? Brown was the worst PM in history after being the worse chancellor - all IMHO I may be able to say it here but say it on HPC and they moderate your posts and if you keep on posting it they lock you out! Seems Bubb isn't as insecure as they are over there. I don't believe it would have made any difference which party was in Government over the boom years. Politicians of all colours would have manipulated and used spin to make themselves look good. I don't think Brown was actually as bad as people make out. Indecisive maybe, but not a bad PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 17, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2010 I don't believe it would have made any difference which party was in Government over the boom years. Politicians of all colours would have manipulated and used spin to make themselves look good. I don't think Brown was actually as bad as people make out. Indecisive maybe, but not a bad PM. Well, we may disagree about Brown's record / see: Brown, the Dark Cloud But I do agree that it is easier for a new team to make the changes needed, and they can (fairly!) blame the current mess on the former government Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
absolutezero Posted August 17, 2010 Report Share Posted August 17, 2010 Well, we may disagree about Brown's record / see: Brown, the Dark Cloud But I do agree that it is easier for a new team to make the changes needed, and they can (fairly!) blame the current mess on the former government The current government is rather unpopular from what I gather. Should the coalition fall apart (which I think is almost certain within the next 2 years) I think Labour will get another landslide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted August 17, 2010 Report Share Posted August 17, 2010 Hello again. Think im going to give this house a miss. Im a FTB with 10% deposit, possibly a bit more if the old man helps out. The house is old, lovely gardens (a rarity in Manchester), and a reasonable guide price. Theres too much risk. Noticed bad damp ingress in a wall, a slightly bowed wall...and its owned by an old couple who have lived there 50 years...i.e lots of cash required to do it up.... plus its auction so ...10% deposit down on the day then ill have to be pretty sure i can raise finance within a short timescale....if the damage is bad a mortgage company wont lend....them im buggered. Cant afford to risk that... Hurl into the mix inflation not to mention job insecurity.... ~reaches for whiskey, pours large measure...and regards small rented house, exhales loudly~ ...going to sign a lease extension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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