UK Property - The former HPC addicts' thread

[romans holiday]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmc...ung-homebuyers/

 

Ian Cowie, personal finance editor of the Telegrpah.

 

 

 

I was going to cut it down but its all just priceless

 

What unbelievable rubbish. This is why this country has got the problems it has. Give the people the choice, but when it goes wrong we'll blame the VI's as it certainly wasnt our fault.

 

And he is the personal finance editor, says it all.

What idiocy. Didn't his mother teach him money doesn't grow on trees.

 

No inkling at all of a credit/ debt/ asset bubble... and the inevitable deflation.

 

That’s not intended to sound like bragging but to demonstrate why people who fail to understand the importance of credit – and, dare I say it, house price inflation – in the creation of wealth are either very naive or perhaps living under hedges on a diet of roots and berries. They have certainly missed one of the simplest ways to accumulate tax-free gains available in our lifetime – at least until now.

 

Will today’s bedsit tenants thank the regulators for freezing them out of home ownership and condemning them to years of throwing cash away on rent? I doubt it. The Government should call off the FSA, slash Stamp Duty and give young homebuyers a fighting chance.

 

[chazza]

So amazing I have to quote it again:

 

people who fail to understand the importance of credit – and, dare I say it, house price inflation – in the creation of wealth are either very naive or perhaps living under hedges

[id5]

So amazing I have to quote it again:

people who fail to understand the importance of credit – and, dare I say it, house price inflation – in the creation of wealth are either very naive or perhaps living under hedges

Or cloud cuckoo land if they believe that wealth is created from taking on too much debt

 

 

[El Dali]

So amazing I have to quote it again:

 

 

Absolutely beautiful! Also:

 

"One of the best financial decisions I ever took was a 100pc mortgage for about five times my salary 25 years ago. No such loans are available today. Without such ‘irresponsible lending’, I might still be renting a bedsit in Kilburn rather than owning a home in Highgate"

 

I love the way this 'financial decision' of his was so clever. That he had the foresight and wisdom to know what was really fuelling prices.

Maybe he's mortgage to the hilt still now. After all, why deny himself right?

If so he might just find himself back in that Kilburn bedsit.

 

 

 

 

[El Dali]

Rightmove has gone on a tear today.

Hit 658. Higher price than in 07!

Irrational exuberance? I dont want to get burned so maybe let it settle a bit, but this has to be a great short sometime.

 

[littledavesab]

So amazing I have to quote it again:

 

or this

Never mind the macro-economics. Self-interest is the one motivation you can always rely on and my personal experience of the property ladder was shared by many others in my generation. One of the best financial decisions I ever took was a 100pc mortgage for about five times my salary 25 years ago. No such loans are available today. Without such ‘irresponsible lending’, I might still be renting a bedsit in Kilburn rather than owning a home in Highgate.

 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmc...ung-homebuyers/

 

He really is a clueless muppet isnt he.

 

Looking at his picture he looks to be of baby boomer generation - now could that be why his generation benefited from the house price rise - yes quite easily. And it could be a reason going forward why house prices might drop !

 

+ They should get the great AEP to comment - can you imagine !!!!!!!

 

[chazza]

Saw a couple of intersting headlines today away from the Nationwide drop:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...ecord-high.html

 

The number of second homes has reached a record high as a combination of a weak pound and the rising popularity of “staycations” pushes home owners to buy in Britain instead of abroad.

 

The second was an email from Allsop auctions statng that they have had there highest ever sales (I think - email at work) higher than Feb 07.

 

 

Both news points maybe suggesting some euphoric peak......(maybe wishful thinking)

[drbubb]

Disgracefull reporting. Here is an example of what you should be doing:

UK house prices see first fall since June, says Halifax

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8549000.stm

 

Actually, that is wrong Halifax NSA prices ROSE.

From:

J 165,514 / to:

F 165,997

 

M Hali.ns Na'wide Rt'move Delus% Ave.H&N Amom% AyoY%

9 159,818 150,501 213,570 137.6% 155,160 -0.37% -16.52%

F 159,208 147,746 216,163 140.8% 153,477 -1.08% -17.66%

M 157,066 150,946 218,081 141.6% 154,006 0.34% -16.69%

A 157,156 151,861 222,077 143.7% 154,509 0.33% -16.37%

M 160,869 154,016 227,441 144.5% 157,443 1.90% -12.55%

J 158,807 156,442 226,436 143.7% 157,625 0.12% -10.99%

J 160,686 158,871 227,864 142.6% 159,779 1.37% -8.11%

A 161,930 160,224 222,762 138.3% 161,077 0.81% -5.27%

S 164,854 161,816 223,996 137.1% 163,335 1.40% -2.53%

O 165,430 162,038 230,184 140.6% 163,734 0.24% 0.13%

N 165,617 162,764 226,440 137.9% 164,191 0.28% 2.21%

D 167,260 162,103 221,463 131.5% 164,682 0.30% 5.74%

J 165,514 163,481 222,261 137.1% 164,498 -0.71% 6.02%

F 165,997 161,320 229,398 140.2% 163,659 -0.51% 6.63%

 

Only the SA price were UP for Halifax.

 

But if you average Nationwide and Halifax NSA prices, they were down -0.51%,

versus a -1.08% fall in February last year, as Uk property prices hit their 2009 low.

 

My forecast remains in the money

[chazza]

Latest RICS House Price Balance data very interesting 17% vs expectations of 30%. Its in The Times today, but get this, only in the little snapshots section they have in business. Not even referenced on the front page or a decent size article on it. I'm not normally one for conspiricary theories (mainly cos I cant spell it...) but if this was a positive figure it would definitely be more prominent.

 

Also check out the historical graph of the RICS data (can someone more proficient with graphs post one please?). From the peak in '02, if you draw a trendline drawn over the '06 peak, the '09 peak kisses it perfectly and has now turned down. You can also draw one on the troughs which works very well, from it I predct the next trough will be at about -120 in 2011

[drbubb]

Latest RICS House Price Balance data very interesting 17% vs expectations of 30%. Its in The Times today, but get this, only in the little snapshots section they have in business. Not even referenced on the front page or a decent size article on it. I'm not normally one for conspiricary theories (mainly cos I cant spell it...) but if this was a positive figure it would definitely be more prominent.

 

Also check out the historical graph of the RICS data (can someone more proficient with graphs post one please?). From the peak in '02, if you draw a trendline drawn over the '06 peak, the '09 peak kisses it perfectly and has now turned down. You can also draw one on the troughs which works very well, from it I predct the next trough will be at about -120 in 2011

thnx, C

 

Have you got the data?

 

[chazza]

Delete

[chazza]

thnx, C

 

Have you got the data?

 

By Svenja O’Donnell

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- A U.K. house price gauge showed fewer increases in values last month than economists forecast as

more people tried to sell their homes, a sign the property market may be running out of steam.

The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices rose exceeded those reporting declines by 17 percentage

points, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in an e-mailed report today. Economists predicted 30 points, according

to the median of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. “The magnitude of the gains going forward is likely to

continue to ease, reflecting the fact that new supply coming onto the market is starting to outstrip fresh demand,” Jeremy

Leaf, spokesman for RICS, said in a statement. Britain’s housing market recovery has lost momentum this

year with the election looming, an increase in transaction tax and colder-than-average winter weather. Bank of England policy

maker Kate Barker said yesterday that the economic recovery may be on track, though it might face a “bumpy” path.

New instructions outpaced new buyer inquiries in February, with a balance of 15 percent more surveyors reporting an

increase in homes for sale, RICS said. Banks’ reluctance to lend is making it difficult for many

Britons to acquire property. Banks granted 48,198 loans to buy homes in January, the least in eight months, Bank of England

data showed on March 1.

The proportion of first-time buyers who expect to enter the property market in the next 12 months fell to 25.8 percent in

the first three months of the year, the third quarterly drop in the measure, Rightmove Plc said in a separate report today.

“First-time buyers play a crucial role in keeping the market moving by helping to complete chains and their continued

absence delays any prospect of a meaningful market recovery,” Miles Shipside, Rightmove’s commercial director, said in a statement.

.........

 

Edit 2: Ill send you the data Bubb, will be cleaner

 

 

[chazza]

okay your PM box is full:

 

Here is the data, send your external email address to my PM if you want it in excel format

 

Feb-10 17

Jan-10 31

Dec-09 30

Nov-09 35

Oct-09 33

Sep-09 21

Aug-09 10

Jul-09 -5

Jun-09 -17

May-09 -42

Apr-09 -56

Mar-09 -71.7

Feb-09 -77.8

Jan-09 -76.2

Dec-08 -74.4

Nov-08 -76.4

Oct-08 -81

Sep-08 -84.5

Aug-08 -82

Jul-08 -83

Jun-08 -86

May-08 -91

Apr-08 -94

Mar-08 -79.6

Feb-08 -66.5

Jan-08 -54.9

Dec-07 -49.2

Nov-07 -40.9

Oct-07 -24.3

Sep-07 -16

Aug-07 -3.1

Jul-07 11.2

Jun-07 10.4

May-07 21

Apr-07 28

Mar-07 27.3

Feb-07 25.3

Jan-07 28.1

Dec-06 36.1

Nov-06 45.9

Oct-06 46.6

Sep-06 45.5

Aug-06 34.6

Jul-06 30.2

Jun-06 27.8

May-06 21.6

Apr-06 15

Mar-06 12

Feb-06 16

Jan-06 8

Dec-05 8

Nov-05 4

Oct-05 -7

Sep-05 -18

Aug-05 -23

Jul-05 -32

Jun-05 -40

May-05 -46

Apr-05 -41

Mar-05 -39

Feb-05 -35

Jan-05 -37

Dec-04 -38

Nov-04 -45

Oct-04 -38

Sep-04 -29

Aug-04 -11

Jul-04 3

Jun-04 18

May-04 42

Apr-04 44.2

Mar-04 44.7

Feb-04 40

Jan-04 39

Dec-03 39

Nov-03 33

Oct-03 34

Sep-03 29

Aug-03 11

Jul-03 -1

Jun-03 -13

May-03 -24

Apr-03 -26

Mar-03 -22

Feb-03 -5

Jan-03 20

Dec-02 38

Nov-02 44

Oct-02 52.8

Sep-02 57

Aug-02 48

Jul-02 50

Jun-02 61.1

May-02 58

Apr-02 59

Mar-02 55.5

Feb-02 48.8

Jan-02 48

Dec-01 34.5

Nov-01 21.7

Oct-01 26.9

Sep-01 39.8

Aug-01 51.3

Jul-01 52.1

Jun-01 45

May-01 43.1

Apr-01 33.8

Mar-01 35.7

 

[id5]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8563243.stm

 

Headline: 'Slow start' in 2010 sales

 

Body text: 'a drop of 52% compared with the previous month'

 

Slow start, if it was a horse it wouldn't have made it out of the starting gates, they would have called the vet to have it put down.

[drbubb]

What idiocy. Didn't his mother teach him money doesn't grow on trees.

No inkling at all of a credit/ debt/ asset bubble... and the inevitable deflation.

 

Restricting access to credit, where willing lenders serviced demand from willing borrowers in a free market, means that young people who start the property game with nothing are condemned to end it with nothing. Increased regulation, however well intentioned, is yet another example of how Britain is leaping backwards into a re-run of the dreary 1950s with social mobility falling towards zero.

 

Never mind the macro-economics. Self-interest is the one motivation you can always rely on and my personal experience of the property ladder was shared by many others in my generation. One of the best financial decisions I ever took was a 100pc mortgage for about five times my salary 25 years ago. No such loans are available today. Without such ‘irresponsible lending’, I might still be renting a bedsit in Kilburn rather than owning a home in Highgate.

 

Now somebody tell me why that would be a bad thing?

- that this ridiculous editor should not be in a bedsit in Kilburn?

 

Does it mean the only way he can "save" is by borrowing tons of money?

There's something wrong with that as a road-to-wealth

 

[chazza]

From a banks Asian road trip:

 

Finally, we were astonished how mnay (younger) hedge fund managers and other investors were buying a London property - partly because sterling is "cheap", partly because mortgage rates in HK are below 1% and because of Chinese driving up high end property prices in HK by 50% (28% on average).

 

Interesting insight from CS. Global liquidity at work

[tinecu]

The most troubled local property markets in the UK....Courtesy of Home.co.uk

 

http://www.home.co.uk/company/press/the_wo..._march_2010.htm

 

 

[GTG]

The most troubled local property markets in the UK....Courtesy of Home.co.uk

 

http://www.home.co.uk/company/press/the_wo..._march_2010.htm

 

I can vouch for their comment on the north of England. I've had a property on the market since last September and despite dropping the estate agents valuation by in excess of twenty percent have not had one viewing. I should add it is in a nice area, has been staged, is well fitted out, is in short walking distance of a town centre, all emenities a mainline railway station and bus routes to the major towns and cities in the area.

 

Fortunately I'm not a distressed seller and have no debt on the property. However, I am considering selling it to a BMV dealer as a prudent move from an opportunity cost point of view i.e. using the proceeds for trading and alternative investments, PM's being my immediate thoughts.

[id5]

It has been a while since I have produced these graphs, the scatter in Log y just to keep Goldfinger happy. Still looks like a falling market to me.

 

 

 

[drbubb]

Can you read Step 9 and 10 to me, can't see on the PDA thing. Cheers.

*IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW*

SURE

9/

Loss of confidence amongst foreign creditors

10/

Weaker Sterling (note: the weaker Dollar may come later)

11/

Need to raise rates, and higher Sterling Oil prices

 

More:

[chazza]

RICS Housing Price Balance -8% vs +5% expected

[bob monkhouse]

Hello chaps.

 

So whats the consensus view? Ive read so many thoughts and opinions, I no longer have a clue!!!

 

My gut instinct is of small nominal falls whilst inflation stokes up.

 

The reason I ask, Ive been 'trying' to save a very modest deposit since 2006. Seen a property on for 30% reduction, going to auction. Lovely house. Its made me loose my impartiality....

 

 

[Ret45]

Hello chaps.

 

So whats the consensus view? Ive read so many thoughts and opinions, I no longer have a clue!!!

 

My gut instinct is of small nominal falls whilst inflation stokes up.

 

The reason I ask, Ive been 'trying' to save a very modest deposit since 2006. Seen a property on for 30% reduction, going to auction. Lovely house. Its made me loose my impartiality....

 

Look at the fundamentals! They are rotten to the core. There has never been a "soft landing" from a bubble and this will be no exception.

[Mabon]

Hello chaps.

 

So whats the consensus view? Ive read so many thoughts and opinions, I no longer have a clue!!!

 

My gut instinct is of small nominal falls whilst inflation stokes up.

 

Teetering on the edge of something very nasty, is my humble opinion.

 

Of course, I could be well wrong, everything may turn up roses over this next 2+ years period.

 

True the fundamentals are rotten, the slide is in and the fetid stink of bubblecity is starting to reak out the air.

 

The Big Dipper, where it stops nobody knows.

 

The reason I ask, Ive been 'trying' to save a very modest deposit since 2006. Seen a property on for 30% reduction, going to auction. Lovely house. Its made me loose my impartiality....

 

Just like babies and wars, there's never really a convenient time to buy a house.

 

But if you have your heart set on one that you love, then you should I feel, go for it.

 

At least you are in possession of the potential pitfalls of doing so.

 

Are you planning on making an offer now, or are you gonna go to auction and have a pop then?

 

If you are making an offer pre-auction, make it a cheeky one, at least 35% below supposed market value. It may get accepted.

 

Good Luck.

[bob monkhouse]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

 

Ive been a perennial bear on the property market for the last 6-7 years. Im now 30, have around 20k deposit saved. This property was on the market for 200k 6 months ago (overpriced I would say). The guide is now 135k. This would equate to 3x my earnings. Its attracting a lot of interest, so in all fairness, I probably wont be able to secure a mortgage to buy.

 

Do you guys own? Did you migrate here from HPC also?