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G0ldfinger's GOLD Thread: Longer Term Aspects

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Just to explain how dangerous gold:silver ratio trading is: What if you had swapped from gold to silver in July 2008? In October 2008 you would have lost approximately 37.5% of your gold when swapping back (37.5% = [1/50 - 1/80]/[1/50]).

The sensible thing to do would obviously not to swap at those times, but I see how it could lose ounces.

 

Are you saying if the gold:silver ratio went back to 1:90 in the next deflationary scare you wouldn't be tempted?

 

 

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The sensible thing to do would obviously not to swap at those times, but I see how it could lose ounces.

 

Are you saying if the gold:silver ratio went back to 1:90 in the next deflationary scare you wouldn't be tempted?

I'd be tempted, but I would possibly only BUY silver (as savings), rather than swapping existing gold for silver.

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I found two very interesting long term shadow stats cpi adjusted PM charts tonight at;

...

Very nice. Looks to me as if silver $100 is a given, as James Dines said.

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Pardon? I am a long time lurker, and have been met with nothing but hostility. What do you mean?

 

- 1

 

Leslie, don't be upset by other members - some think you may be a previous poster that was banned a few days ago. What foolishness. BTW, I am a Guzzi man - have you any interest in motorcycles?

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Pardon? I am a long time lurker, and have been met with nothing but hostility. What do you mean?

 

- 1

By the rate you are posting at, a day must be long for you indeed.

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http://www.321gold.com/editorials/acamarjo...rnal100909.html

 

Here's another thought from Richard Russell. The government of China has recently been urging its citizens to buy gold and silver.

 

Here's Russell's take on this (and it's an intriguing one): As workers have been laid off in factories and are returning to their villages (China's trade surplus in August 2009 fell 45% from a year earlier), the government is concerned about the potential for social unrest due to rising unemployment. If the government believes that gold and silver are going higher (knowing that it is itself part of the reason for that to happen), then it makes perfect sense for it to almost plead with its citizens to buy gold to create a bit of wealth that might help ensure stability.

 

 

 

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My opinion is that anything with the Queen on it will be good in the UK. Therefore, Sovereigns, Britannias, and all the Canadian and Aussie coins are good. For instance, I have quite a few gold Sovereigns/Britannies, but also Silver Maples and Nuggets who come more handy when it comes down to groceries. Some people on here prefer old currency with silver in it. I prefer the shiny new stuff. :)

 

Thanks been mulling over for some time my choices couldn't decide on Brits or Maples, might still buy some of those Guernsey ones as they do give a good service. Was only thinking enough for a few months supply of provisions under complete meltdown of fiat conditions.

 

My concern on Maples for everyday spending was perhaps dumbly acceptance in local communities, but I guess should be fine with the queens face on it come the revolution :unsure:

 

Thankyou appreciate your thoughts.

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Fair enough. I respectfully hold a different view.

 

Everytime I have funds and time a purchase in a market dip, I need to make a decision - gold, silver or platinum (let's leave Pt out of this though, as it complicates things). I will choose gold when the G-to-S ratio is nearer 50, and silver when near 80. The end result is always to finish up in oz's of gold, its just that holding silver for sometime while the ratio lowers can get me more oz's of yellow stuff for the same spend.

 

I´m tempted to diversify in to silver, but have no fiat for that now. My Only option would be use my Au for Ag. Now ration being 1:59, it´s not as favourable as it has been. I haven´t pushed the trigger yet cos I think the possibility of another overall economy crash is in the air. By waiting I could lose the bigger move in silver staying in gold OR be able to make a swap when silver has dipped cos of stockcrash and I´ve sold Au for strenght in this coming rally of Au far 1100-1300s.

 

If stockmarket tanks during this Gold rally before x-mas, Do you think silver taking even bigger hit than last time?

Last time the stockcrash made USD to rally due to deleveraging and silver to tank big time. Now it could be softened by china etc.

 

Would You make a swap now when this rally isn´t really taken off yet or wait this rally in gold seeing if stocks crash and diversify when silver dips after this rally in gold? If no stockcrash in this time period described, the ratio could be nearer to 1:50 than now.

 

I´m PMs for long term and difersifying Ag is gonna be the next step, playing the ratio could be in options when I accumulate more.

 

Any toughts on my timing? :unsure:

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I'd be tempted, but I would possibly only BUY silver (as savings), rather than swapping existing gold for silver.

What if you didn't have any additional savings and had a very large position already?

 

 

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Guzzi Le Mans?

 

+ 1

Hi cdswamp, good to see you back :lol:

 

 

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Could this be true?

 

Central Banking: A Blight On Humanity

 

By: Rob Kirby

 

Impeccably reliable sources have informed me that as recently as Sept. 30, 2009 – the last possible day of trade in the Sept. 09 gold futures – a number of well-heeled market participants “bought” substantial tonnage worth of gold futures on the London Bullion Market [LBMA] and immediately told their counterparties they wanted to take instantaneous delivery of the underlying physical bullion.

 

The unexpected immediate demand for substantial tonnage of gold bullion created utter panic in at least two banks who were counterparties to this trade – J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank – because they simply did not posses the gold bullion which they had sold short [an illegal act which in trading parlance is referred to as a “naked short”].

 

Because these banks did not have the bullion to honor their contracted commitments, one or both of them approached the counterparties and asked if there was any way they could settle this embarrassing matter quietly on a “cash basis” to absolve the banks from fulfilling their physical bullion delivery obligations. The purchasers were not interested in a ‘cash settlement’ and demanded delivery of physical bullion giving these banks 5 business days to resolve the situation. A premium of as much as spot plus 25 % [that would be 1,250 – 1,300 per ounce of gold] was offered to settle this matter in fiat money instead of the embarrassment of a very public “failure to deliver” on the part of the London Bullion Market Association.

 

Earlier this week, no less than two Central Banks became involved in effecting the physical settlement of this situation. One of these Central Banks was British [that would be the Bank of England] – and reportedly, even they were only capable of providing less than pure, non-compliant gold bars that did not meet good delivery standards stipulated by the LBMA. Like it or not, this is a testament to lack of physical gold available, folks.

 

To summarize: Banks like J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bk. - who sold endless amounts of gold futures at prices of 950 – 1025 and then tried to make “side deals” with the folks they sold the futures to – offering them spot + 25 % [let’s say 1,275 per ounce] to settle in fiat – only after their counter parties demanded substantial tonnage of physical gold bullion.

 

Stunningly, if accurate [and there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is not], this means that gold is already in SEVERE backwardation and this fact is being hidden from the public.

 

Then, to protect the “integrity” of the futures market as a ‘price discovery mechanism’ – Central Banks – aiding and abetting - plunder the sovereign assets of their respective countries to bail out their agents / friends in an attempt to ‘sweep the whole bloody mess under the carpet’.

 

To think that anyone wonders why our financial system and fiat money will soon to be TOAST?

 

What a disgraceful insult to humanity.

 

 

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Thanks for that Pixel8r. That's very intriguing, and, I think, totally plausible.

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Sometime a while back DrBubb raised some questions about the actions of the Gold Cartel which I couldn't answer.

 

I mentioned that I would pass the questions on to James Turk to see if he had time to answer them.

 

I have received his response to DrBubb's questions today. Please excuse my strange colour scheme, I thought It would make it easier to understand who was who:

 

James Turk:

 

The futures market is probably only 1/10th the size of the OTC market, but unfortunately, OTC data is not available - except for the BIS and US Controller of the Currency reports on derivatives (which I understand excludes forwards). And gold derivatives have surged even though mine hedging has dropped to zero. Some of this surge no doubt is speculators taking short positions, but most of it is gov't short positions. Obviously, for every buyer there has to be a seller.

 

Also, with "spot deferred" contracts, the shorts can be held essentially forever. For example, Barrick's shorts are evergreen "spot deferred" contracts and can be rolled and rolled and rolled. Barrick has been rolling their shorts for years. These shorts have an average price around $320. That's why Barrick has a $6 billion negative marked to market.

 

Thx pixel8r. I guess that answers the question I posed a while back. These COT shorts can keep their short positions technically 'forever'. Well, that's Western free markets for you.

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I´m tempted to diversify in to silver, but have no fiat for that now. My Only option would be use my Au for Ag. Now ration being 1:59, it´s not as favourable as it has been. I haven´t pushed the trigger yet cos I think the possibility of another overall economy crash is in the air. By waiting I could lose the bigger move in silver staying in gold OR be able to make a swap when silver has dipped cos of stockcrash and I´ve sold Au for strenght in this coming rally of Au far 1100-1300s.

If I were 100% in gold and wanting to get some silver I think at the moment I would wait, or move only a limited percentage into silver.

 

The gold:silver ratio at 1:59 is sort of middling and not especially favourable for silver.

 

As you mentioned if there is a stock market crash there is a danger that silver could sell off badly, maybe not as bad as last year, but still.

 

I would wait in gold hoping that later the ratio will become favourable for swapping gold for silver: something more like 70 or 80 to 1. It might take many months of waiting.

 

I'm split between gold, silver and euros. More gold in cash terms than silver.

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If I were 100% in gold and wanting to get some silver I think at the moment I would wait, or move only a limited percentage into silver.

 

The gold:silver ratio at 1:59 is sort of middling and not especially favourable for silver.

 

As you mentioned if there is a stock market crash there is a danger that silver could sell off badly, maybe not as bad as last year, but still.

 

I would wait in gold hoping that later the ratio will become favourable for swapping gold for silver: something more like 70 or 80 to 1. It might take many months of waiting.

 

I'm split between gold, silver and euros. More gold in cash terms than silver.

 

I tend to agree on waiting the favourable ratio to time my swap right. I´m regretting that I didn´t have my GM account open when the silver was on the ropes after the last stockcrash. I tend to avoid buying physical silver in my personal holding, cos hefty premiums & storage problems in Finland, but GM seems solve those problems. :mellow:

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Lots of drama on the other threads.

 

I can't keep up with everything. Sorry to see GOM leave if it is final.

 

Quite content that I have my own little thread now. :)

 

I can't post on a gold trading thread on a permanent basis. This would corrupt my investment philosophy.

 

 

EDIT: I want to point out again, that I intended the gold threads, when I started them, to be not mainly focussed on trading. Now the spin seems to be on trading, so I have to opt out, and start all over again.

 

Along the lines of Secretary of the Treasury Connally: This is my thread but your problem. :)

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Lots of drama on the other threads.

 

I can't keep up with everything. Sorry to see GOM leave if it is final.

 

Quite content that I have my own little thread now. :)

 

I can't post on a gold trading thread on a permanent basis. This would corrupt my investment philosophy.

 

 

EDIT: I want to point out again, that I intended the gold threads, when I started them, to be not mainly focussed on trading. Now the spin seems to be on trading, so I have to opt out, and start all over again.

 

Along the lines of Secretary of the Treasury Connally: This is my thread but your problem. :)

 

That's fine by me.

 

Basically if it wasn't for the many, many posts by GF and CGNAO, then fwiw would not exist here at gei.

 

I'll read other gold threads, but from now on I will only post here as I like the idea of searching through history. You'll have to excuse a few charts now and again though.

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Sometime a while back DrBubb raised some questions about the actions of the Gold Cartel which I couldn't answer.

 

I mentioned that I would pass the questions on to James Turk to see if he had time to answer them.

 

I have received his response to DrBubb's questions today. Please excuse my strange colour scheme, I thought It would make it easier to understand who was who.

Good stuff.

 

The debate reminds somehow of the inflation/deflation debate. It always also depends on your definitions etc.

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That's fine by me.

 

Basically if it wasn't for the many, many posts by GF and CGNAO, then fwiw would not exist here at gei.

 

I'll read other gold threads, but from now on I will only post here as I like the idea of searching through history. You'll have to excuse a few charts now and again though.

 

Thats what I meant when I gave him a hug. Sobbered up now though!! Its good to see gold back above £21,000 again and silver is on a record high since Ive been into it. What was the silver GBP high in the 1980s?

 

I hope all this grief is done with on the forum now btw <_<

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Thats what I meant when I gave him a hug. Sobbered up now though!! Its good to see gold back above £21,000 again and silver is on a record high since Ive been into it. What was the silver GBP high in the 1980s?

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Silver_GBP.html

Silver_GBP.png

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Silv...BP_RPI-adj.html

Silver_GBP_RPI-adj.png

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Christ I'm bored of GEI!

 

59-1 not favourable?? lol

 

Inflation/Deflation debate??

 

Without doubt for the next 1/2yrs we will get inflation/very high inflation.

 

Then we will get massive deflation, but that's a whole new world and there's a lot going to happen between now and then!

 

Yes the corrupt shorts are still out there, but for how much longer??

 

Just a case of riding the storm...Good luck all.

 

Over and Out!

 

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