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G0ldfinger's GOLD Thread: Longer Term Aspects

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Thanks for that GF. Very good to be reminded from time to time IMO.

FYI (though I'm sure you already know) Prechter sees silver as signalling that gold will fall as it is 'overvalued'. Dollar will bottom as gold tops out and wave three down will bring us the biggest falls in stocks for THREE CENTURIES.

So basically stocks crash massively any time soon, dollar rally for a year or so, gold and silver down as another round of deleveraging beginneth. Deflation, thanks to social mood, will turn any recovery on its head.

 

It will be interesting to see what is going to happen. Will gold/silver become the safe haven/flight to safety or will the dollar once again become the major beneficiary for the time being?

I suspect, in this scenario, gold will go down like last time, so not so bad, then bounce back up. Silver same. I also think that gold will still look good (or better) in your eyes ie Dow/gold, Houses/gold by the time wave 3 ends, this despite the fiat price per oz falling. Perhaps even your price ratios could be met if we see Prechters wave 3 down being the worst in 3 Centuries.

We live in interesting times

Why does anyone pay any attention to what Prechter says, he has been wrong all the way through this gold bull run and continues to be so.

 

DrBubb made an interesting post the other detailing how wrong Prechter has been lately. I pity anyone who follows this guy, you must be losing a fortune.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135887

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Look closely at the chart above as Gold has broken through the $1000 line. The cartels action can be very easily seen, particularly on the 26th of each month.

I predict the gold action will be very similar over the coming days, with a breakout through the cartels new line in the sand at $1070 by the 6th November.

If I am wrong I have my own pants to eat :P

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sc-10.png

 

Look closely at the chart above as Gold has broken through the $1000 line. The cartels action can be very easily seen, particularly on the 26th of each month.

 

I predict the gold action will be very similar over the coming days, with a breakout through the cartels new line in the sand at $1070 by the 6th November.

 

If I am wrong I have my own pants to eat :P

 

Jim Turk talks of the same month end with regards to options expiry:

 

http://www.fgmr.com/gold-october-25-2009.html

 

Quote:

October 25, 2009 – Gold’s ongoing consolidation in the $1045-to-$1060 area is very constructive to its ongoing bull market. However, end of months are always very tricky because of option expiry. The gold cartel writes a lot of calls in their market interventions aimed at capping the gold price. As a consequence, they often bomb gold at month-end so that as many of their calls as possible expire out of the money, thereby enabling the gold cartel to earn the entire premium.

 

Even though October expiry is not a big month (compared to November expiry, for example), it is normal to expect some selling pressure this coming week. In fact, the selling pressure to drop the gold price before option expiry has already started.

 

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Gartman sees gold becoming world reserve currency

 

Interviewed Friday on CNBC's "Fast Money" program, Gartman Letter editor Dennis Gartman said he sees gold becoming the world's reserve currency and the dollar continuing down for the next year while being very oversold for the moment as gold is overbought. Gartman remarked that "gold bugs" don't like him, but if he makes a few more television appearances like this one, they might start to get over it. Gartman's remarks about gold begin at 2 minutes and 42 seconds into the interview, and you can watch it at the CNBC Internet site here:

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1305575091&play=1

 

 

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'...while being very oversold for the moment as gold is overbought...' so just the same as Prechter really?

Yes I would put Gartman in a similar camp to Prechter along with Jon Nadler also. I found it interesting that even he is saying that gold will become the world reserve currency again.

 

What price does Prechter see gold going to now? Will that be the same time as oil will be going to $15 per barrel? :lol:

 

 

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Afternoon all,

 

Just got my hands on my Sovereigns, Philharmonicas and 1kg Kookaburra. I must confess to being very unimpressed with the little sovereigns. Don't know why, but I thought they'd be much bigger. Tiddlers really. No much bigger than a 1p piece (though amazingly more valuable!). They are slightly more impressive when you wodge large numbers together as they carry a lot of weight. And they ring nicely when flipped. Still, I can see they are a store of value. I imagine 1/4 sovereigns must be virtually invisible.

 

My philharmonicas are nice and shiny and reassuringly heavy and big.

 

And the 1kg Kookaburra impressed even my sceptical parents. A coin to toss when you need to make a really BIG decision :-)

 

Putting three or four little sovereigns next to the Kookaburra gives you a very visual demonstration of the Gold:Silver ratio!

 

Wanderer

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Why does anyone pay any attention to what Prechter says, he has been wrong all the way through this gold bull run and continues to be so.

I know practically nothing of what he says. However, Nadeem Walyat at Market Oracle is a big follower and that says a lot to me. Positvely.

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Don't keep your Gold in a safety deposit box, not that safe after all.

 

The raid that rocked the Met: Why gun and drugs op on 6,717 safety deposit boxes could cost taxpayer a fortune

 

More than 500 officers smashed their way into thousands of safety-deposit boxes to retrieve guns, drugs and millions of pounds of criminal assets. At least, that's what was supposed to happen. Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark investigate

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/ar...l#ixzz0VAB3OaT6

 

 

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I am glad i didnt sell now. :lol::lol:

Who were they trying to kid :unsure:

 

 

 

UPDATE 2-Russia will not sell gold in 2009 Tuesday October 27, 2009 05:25:12 PM GMT

 

 

GOLD-RUSSIA/POSTPONEMENT (UPDATE 2)

* Russia postpones sale of 20-50 tonnes of gold

 

* Postponement due to plans being leaked

 

* Sale could have brought in $1.7 bln at current prices

 

* Gold market fails to react

 

 

(Adds market reaction, more background)

 

By Polina Devitt

 

MOSCOW, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The Russian government said on Tuesday it had postponed its plans to sell up to 50 tonnes of gold this year, after information about the sale was leaked to the market, but the gold market failed to react.

 

"Due to the leak of the information the sale in the reported period and in the reported form will not take place," deputy head of the government agent for precious metals sales, Almazjuvelirexport (Almaz), Sergei Gorny, told Reuters.

 

He declined to sell when the sale may take place.

 

On Friday, sources told Reuters the government planned to sell 20-50 tonnes of gold -- worth up to $1.7 billion at current prices -- to help plug a budget deficit in the first major sale since the fall of the Soviet Union.

 

The sales from Russia's State Precious Metals and Gems Repository (Gokhran) could account for 0.5 to 1.25 percent of global consumption of the metal, which soared in price to a record of $1,070.40 per ounce on Oct. 14.

 

Gokhran, which traces its history to a decree by Tsar Peter the Great in 1719, holds the Russian state's stocks of precious metals such as gold and palladium and gems such as diamonds.

 

Gold prices were practically unmoved by the postponement, hovering around $1040 per ounce on Tuesday.

 

"I think generally the market didn't expect them to sell, so this shouldn't have too much of an influence on the market," a European gold trader said.

 

Analysts had initially been a little sceptical of the sale plans, which come at a time when Russian central bank has been steadily increasing the share of gold -- seen as a safe haven in times of turmoil -- in its reserves. (Additional reporting by Jan Harvey) (Writing by Aleksandras Budrys)

 

 

 

 

Gold falls as dollar clings to gains; Russia won't sell gold

 

By Laura Mandaro & Nick Godt, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures slid Tuesday but pared earlier losses as mild gains in U.S. stocks and oil countered a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which made hard assets less valuable.

 

Gold for December delivery fell $3.90, or 0.7%, to $1,035.70 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex, bringing losses back to early New York levels.

 

The contract had fallen below $1,036 an ounce after a private group said U.S. consumer confidence faltered earlier this month, triggering demand for the U.S. dollar and luring buyers away from precious metals.

 

U.S. stocks, which dipped briefly after the confidence report, resumed gains, buoyed by energy companies' shares. Oil prices also turned higher, with the December contract trading up 1% at $79.50 a barrel. In a break with past trends, gold has been rising alongside stocks this year.

 

"Stock prices are higher, oil prices are higher, gold is lower: It's a clear indicator that the dollar is a driving force behind the gold rally," summed up Bill O'Neill, a managing partner at Logic Investment Services, a commodities brokerage and fund manager.

 

The U.S. dollar reversed higher after the Conference Board at 10 a.m. Eastern said its consumer confidence index fell to 47.7 from an upwardly revised 53.4 in September.

 

The dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 76.23, +0.17, +0.22%) , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, rose to 76.227 from 75.890 earlier in the session and 76.100 in late trading on Monday.

 

"Consumer confidence was anemic. It's further evidence that there's no imminent inflation. Gold is anticipating inflation, but anticipating it in the longer term," O'Neill said.

 

 

Crude Oil Takes Direction From US Dollar MovesA weaker US dollar has lifted Nymex crude back into positive territory but the contract continues to trade below $80 a barrel. Oil becomes more attractive for investors when the dollar weakens because the dollar-denominated commodity becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold futures had fallen ahead of the report.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (INDU 9,893, +25.32, +0.26%) was recently 63 points higher at 9,931 while the S&P 500 Index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,065, -2.35, -0.22%) gained 3 points higher at 1,070.

 

Also weighing on gold, O'Neill said, investors appear to be taking profits after several weeks of gains. The most active contract has gained about 12% from the end of August to a high of $1,072 touched in mid-October, driven by noncommercial traders.

 

Speculative positions on Globex reached an all-time high on the New York Mercantile Exchange this month. See earlier story.

 

Copper for December delivery traded flat with the prior close at $3 a pound.

 

December silver fell 32 cents, or 1.9%, to $16.775 an ounce.

 

January platinum fell $21.30 an ounce, or 1.6%, to $1,324.50 an ounce.

 

December palladium lost $4.75 an ounce, or 1.4%, to $328.50 an ounce.

 

Gold prices shrugged off a Reuters report that Russia had postponed its plans to sell up to 50 metric tons of gold this year, after information about the sale was leaked to the market.

 

SPDR Gold Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!gld/quotes/nls/gld (GLD 101.80, -0.06, -0.06%) shares slipped a penny to $101.86, while iShares Silver Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!slv/quotes/nls/slv (SLV 16.29, -0.50, -2.98%) lost 1.7% to $16.51.

 

On Monday, gold fell 1% as stocks fell sharply with the Dow industrials losing more than 100 points on fresh worries about the financial sector. The dollar had also rallied across the board fed by safe-haven demand.

 

Laura Mandaro is a MarketWatch editor, based in San Francisco.

 

Nick Godt is MarketWatch's markets editor, based in New York.

 

 

 

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UPDATE 2-Russia will not sell gold in 2009 Tuesday October 27, 2009 05:25:12 PM GMT

Russia saying it is going to sell gold is a bit like the IMF saying they are going to, said for effect.

 

 

 

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Don't keep your Gold in a safety deposit box, not that safe after all.

 

The raid that rocked the Met: Why gun and drugs op on 6,717 safety deposit boxes could cost taxpayer a fortune

 

More than 500 officers smashed their way into thousands of safety-deposit boxes to retrieve guns, drugs and millions of pounds of criminal assets. At least, that's what was supposed to happen. Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark investigate

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/ar...l#ixzz0VAB3OaT6

 

A statistician was then hired who used this sample of only five per cent of the total client base to conclude that nine out of ten of all of the thousands of box-holders were probably criminally minded or felons, an opinion later expressed more stridently with Judge Macrae, who was told that 'all of the boxes might contain criminal property'. Macrae was swayed. He authorised a warrant under POCA on May 30 2008.

 

 

However, by talking to scores of box-holders, none of whom have spoken before, Live has uncovered a different version of Operation Rize, one that shows how the vast majority of those caught up in the raids were innocent. They have had their lives turned upside down over the past 17 months. Many have struggled to recoup their money and possessions, been forced into legal trench warfare with police lawyers and told they must prove how they came by the contents of their boxes.

This is also a story told through secret legal papers, including confidentiality agreements struck with some vault depositors whose cases threatened to topple the entire operation. Although the police told a judge that 'nine out of ten' of all of the thousands of box-holders were probably criminally minded, criminally connected or felons, the paper trail reveals that perhaps only as few as ten per cent of the boxes have any connection to serious crime. More worryingly, according to eminent lawyers and barristers, Operation Rize has seen the Yard employ unethical tactics, driving a coach and horses through the new POCA legislation, leaving the Met facing a raft of legal actions that could potentially cost taxpayers millions of pounds

 

From the Daily Mail article it sounds like the Met Police were sexing up their dossier.

 

 

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From the Daily Mail article it sounds like the Met Police were sexing up their dossier.

I wonder how many boxes actually contained gold that they put down as a criminal holding of non fiat :lol:

 

 

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I wonder how many boxes actually contained gold that they put down as a criminal holding of non fiat :lol:

 

 

The BBC news reports at the time gave the impression that the police finding gold, SHOCK HORROR, in safe deposit boxes had to be illegal proceeds (Gold = Evil). What do you expect to find in safe deposit boxes, someone's Barclaycard statements for the last 20 years squirreled away. :lol:

 

Time for a GEI meet up in Geneva for a pint and to open a safe deposit account with a Swiss bank?

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Interesting article on calculating the value of gold if equated with the Fed’s liabilities on various assumptions. An $11,090-$31,470 range is deduced;

 

Zero Discount Value of Gold in the Total Banking System

 

by Michael S. Rozeff

 

 

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Said for effect: to lower the price so they can buy more!

Sounds credible.

 

Didn't they buy 400 000 oz only last month?

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Sounds credible.

 

Didn't they buy 400 000 oz only last month?

Russian Gold buying monthly since October 2006;

 

Midas1026A.gif

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