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He's forecasting an oil price of between $4 & $10 also dispelling "the peak oil mania" in the process. Bold stuff!!

Relax everyone, we will all live happily ever after in a world of endless oil and ever cheaper prices.

 

The more I find out the more it sounds like he lives in la la land. :lol:

 

 

 

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In the interview Prechter says there is no way for the government to devalue the dollar now , as we are not on a fixed gold ratio.

 

The printing of money to buy government debt is exactly that, a way of devaluing the dollar. Please explain to me why that is not a way that they can devalue their currency.

His point is that the currency can not be formally devalued as it was in the 30s and that deflation will make cash more valuable [i would add to the consumer, not the investor].

 

Personally, I think the currency will be devalued [from the investor's perspective] due to the massive debt and on the fx market [NOT in overheated markets in some 70s style inflation]... but only eventually and then only by as much as a half against stronger currencies... perhaps only gold. The dollar will probably strengthen before this happens, with assets continuing to deflate in value. This is a world away from hyper-inflation.

 

The only ones thinking current Fed policy is inflationary are monetarists. This is a very limited theory imo. Why restrict yourself to it. Anyway, from the perspective of those invested in gold I think the issue is academic. Gold has shown itself thus far to perform well in a deflationary environment and will continue to do so.

 

Then again, perhaps the issue is not so academic when you consider that there may at some point be another sell-off sparked by deflation and deleveraging. Many not so sure wavering inflationists, such as Puru Saxena, could well mistakenly throw in the towel when faced with another round of liquidation [this reflects the old conventional wisdom that deflation is bad for gold]. However, gold will recover after a possible sell-off, though not as a repository for a flood of cash but as a sound currency when others are eroding in value.

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Relax everyone, we will all live happily ever after in a world of endless oil and ever cheaper prices.

 

The more I find out the more it sounds like he lives in la la land. :lol:

He's forecasting a depression.

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His point is that the currency can not be formally devalued as it was in the 30s and that deflation will make cash more valuable [i would add to the consumer, not the investor].

 

Personally, I think the currency will be devalued [from the investor's perspective] due to the massive debt and on the fx market [NOT in overheated markets in some 70s style inflation]... but only eventually and then only by as much as a half against stronger currencies... perhaps only gold. The dollar will probably strengthen before this happens, with assets continuing to deflate in value. This is a world away from hyper-inflation.

 

The only ones thinking current Fed policy is inflationary are monetarists. This is a very limited theory imo. Why restrict yourself to it. Anyway, from the perspective of those invested in gold I think the issue is academic. Gold has shown itself thus far to perform well in a deflationary environment and will continue to do so.

 

Then again, perhaps the issue is not so academic when you consider that there may at some point be another sell-off sparked by deflation and deleveraging. Many not so sure wavering inflationists, such as Puru Saxena, could well mistakenly throw in the towel when faced with another round of liquidation [this reflects the old conventional wisdom that deflation is bad for gold]. However, gold will recover after a possible sell-off, though not as a repository for a flood of cash but as a sound currency when others are eroding in value.

 

He did not mention "formally", he only mentioned there is no way for the government to devalue the currency, which is wrong.

 

The dollar will probably strengthen before this happens, with assets continuing to deflate in value.

 

Which assets do you see continuing to deflate? I can see all the important assets that sustain life going up, like food and energy. About the only assets I see going down are assets primarily bought with debt, all the life essentials are getting more expensive and will continue too.

 

Why do you think that deflation is traditionally bad for gold, i don't. I think of deflation as being good for cash and I think of gold as the ultimate form of cash.

 

 

Also have a check of this draft article by Eric deCarbonnel;

 

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/09/very...or-article.html

 

 

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He did not mention "formally", he only mentioned there is no way for the government to devalue the currency, which is wrong.

So what. That is what is meant by the fact that the government can not by decree devalue the dollar the way Roosevelt did in 1934 when an ounce of gold went from $20 to $34 representing a 40% odd devaluation of the currency. The context of the conversation, if I remember correctly, was a government decreed dollar devaluation - what Jim Puplava has been talking about lately - NOT currency depreciation as would be seen in a normal inflation.

 

Without a gold exchange standard all the talk about a sudden dollar devaluation in a deflationary environment is not only nonsense but misleading.

 

Hmmmm.... where is my dining table. :rolleyes:

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Then again, perhaps the issue is not so academic when you consider that there may at some point be another sell-off sparked by deflation and deleveraging. Many not so sure wavering inflationists, such as Puru Saxena, could well mistakenly throw in the towel when faced with another round of liquidation [this reflects the old conventional wisdom that deflation is bad for gold]. However, gold will recover after a possible sell-off, though not as a repository for a flood of cash but as a sound currency when others are eroding in value.

 

By expecting MANIC SWINGS,

I avoid getting stuck in either "Camp" and can be alert to the changes as they come.

 

I agree with Prechter, that we may be at the very beginning of another Deflationary swing down.

Rising Libor would be a confirmation that it is underway

 

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In the interview Prechter says there is no way for the government to devalue the dollar now , as we are not on a fixed gold ratio. The printing of money to buy government debt is exactly that, a way of devaluing the dollar. Please explain to me why that is not a way that they can devalue their currency.

 

RP also said pretty much that the endgame is a 90% devaluation in the purchasing power of the dollar/fiat cash

 

I think that you are being rather unfair on his agrument and remember he also said the Bond markets might face down the FED (or US Gov) spending

 

There is also the political aspect to consider - Bernanke might have to do something to reign in congress/Obama's spending plans over the next few years - if he keeps happily creating money he is giving the politicians the wrong idea.... Also Ron Paul is coming after the Fed! IMO the political is the big uknown,.

 

]

Mind you here is the interesting thing - DO ROBERT PRECHTER AND DR MARC FABER NOW AGREE ????

 

Faber has recently said deflation first and inflation later. Prechter has said - on King World News & on the FSN interview - inflation = definately first and inflation - possibly later. Surprised no one else has mentioned this?

 

If you consider that without Gov interferance then the credit implosion is deflationary then this saga can run for ages until we see a final conclusion. The future is the silent sound of credit imploding and the public anguish of money printing.

 

We will get DrB's manic swings along the way. Good time to be a trader?

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...i havent read this yet, but given the limited time, i thought i'd let people know...

 

Elliott Wave International has just released a free 47-Page eBook, How to Spot Trading Opportunities.

Created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, it’s available free until September 23, 2009.

 

Learn more:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/high-confi...aspx?code=33541

 

The How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook features 47-pages of easy-to-understand trading techniques that help traders identify high-confidence trade setups. Senior EWI Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy will show them how some of the simplest rules and guidelines have some of the most powerful applications for trading.

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http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0905-3a.mp3

 

 

Prechter's words:

DEFLATION "Requires the precondition of an ocean of unpayable debts."

 

He mentions debts of $50 Trillion, with many of them against Property.

The process of unwinding those debts, and writing them off is deflationary.

 

The change was "no news at all... people just stopped buying them." - A change in attitudes.

Then, "all the financial markets collapsed in tandem."

 

"All the wealth that people think they have disappears as easily as it was created.

Areas of malinvestment get deserted."

 

I highly recommend the interview.

 

 

That was excellent - going to have another listen, despite not being a fan of EW or a lot of Prechter's predictions.

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I listened to the FSN interview with Prechter yesterday. I really thought he tried to argue intelligently, but he still simply seems to get some things totally @$$-backwards.

 

...

So that should put things in context. Prechter's long term target for the Dow is 400 at the end of it all.

...

IMO this is completely nuts. I give gold at $1,000,000/oz a much, much higher probability than the above.

 

The problem I have with Prechter is where he talks about Government debt to GDP ratios. He always seems to avoid the question of the end game, which is the solvency of the US goverment.

 

The deflationary spiral must eventually lead to a massive loss of confidence in the dollar when the US is unable to repay their debt obligations through standard taxation. This is what I believe Jim Sinclair refers to as a 'currency event'.

 

I'm definately with Prechter for the next couple of years or so with his dollar strengh and deflation but after that I become very wary of his uncertainty. I'm also aware that the guy has been wrong on a lot of things for a long long time. <_<

+1

 

They are not trying to create inflation expectations in the minds of investors they are buying government debt because they have to, as the chinese no longer want it. They can't be so stupid that they are expecting to get the consumer spending as the consumer is now broke, no more removing equity from their properties.

 

So I guess from the above you think they will be stopping buying treasuries soon, let me know when they do. The fed's actions so far have off-set the current deflation quiet well, that is why we are now back on an inflation surge.

+1

 

In the interview Prechter says there is no way for the government to devalue the dollar now , as we are not on a fixed gold ratio. The printing of money to buy government debt is exactly that, a way of devaluing the dollar. Please explain to me why that is not a way that they can devalue their currency.

He is really not getting this. Sort of sad.

 

Relax everyone, we will all live happily ever after in a world of endless oil and ever cheaper prices.

 

The more I find out the more it sounds like he lives in la la land. :lol:

+1

 

He also argued that the Fed was only buying prime assets, and he makes a major distinction between the Fed and the Treasury. I think this is somewhat dangerous, as they work hand in hand. Also, how can the guaranteeing of Fannie/Freddie be good for the Dollar? This is so clearly rubbish, Jim Puplava often almost choked on his works because Prechter was talking such nonsense. He (Puplava) was really extremely polite.

 

I am not entirely in the Puplava camp, but Prechter seems not right either (Dow 400 will not happen).

 

I think we will see more bubble deflation (houses, stocks), but we will not go as far down as Prechter thinks. And we will go hyper sooner than he thinks. But I am also not as bullish (for inflation reasons) on stocks as Puplava is.

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...i havent read this yet, but given the limited time, i thought i'd let people know...

 

Elliott Wave International has just released a free 47-Page eBook, How to Spot Trading Opportunities.

Created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, it’s available free until September 23, 2009.

 

Learn more:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/high-confi...aspx?code=33541

 

The How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook features 47-pages of easy-to-understand trading techniques that help traders identify high-confidence trade setups. Senior EWI Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy will show them how some of the simplest rules and guidelines have some of the most powerful applications for trading.

 

Hmmmm. I get a video, not a book, when I follow this link.

 

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How a Kid With a Ruler Can Make a Million

A Lesson in Drawing and Using Trendlines

by Elliott Wave International | September 25, 2009

 

The following article is adapted from a brand-new 50-page ebook from Elliott Wave International.

Learn more about The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook, and download your free copy here.

 

By Jeffrey Kennedy

 

When I began my career as an analyst, I was lucky enough to have some time with a few old pros.

 

One in particular that I will always remember told me that a kid with a ruler could make a million dollars in the markets. He was talking about trendlines. I was sold.

 

I spent nearly three years drawing trendlines and all sorts of geometric shapes on price charts. And you know, that grizzled old trader was only half right.

 

Trendlines are one the most simple and dynamic tools an analyst can employ... but I have yet to make my million dollars, so he was wrong -- or at least early -- on that point.

 

Despite being extremely useful, trendlines are often overlooked. I guess it’s just human nature to discard the simple in favor of the complicated.

 

(Heaven knows, if they don’t understand it, it must work, right?)

 

0925_clip_image001.gif

 

In the chart above, I have drawn a trendline using two lows that occurred in early August and September of 2003.

 

As you can see, each time prices approached this line, they reversed course and advanced.

 

Sometimes, soybeans only fell to near this line before turning up.

 

Other times, prices broke through momentarily before resuming the larger uptrend.

 

What still amazes me is that two seemingly insignificant lows in 2002 pointed the direction of soybeans -- and identified several potential buying opportunities -- for the next six months!

 

Get more lessons like the one above in the free 50-page Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook.

Learn more and download your free copy here.

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0925_clip_image001.gif

Do you know what a elliot wave analyst would have made of the chart above. It seems to me elliot wave is very subjective, people are often completely sure of something happening, then have to change their count when it goes wrong.

 

 

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Prechter's words:

DEFLATION "Requires the precondition of an ocean of unpayable debts."

 

He mentions debts of $50 Trillion, with many of them against Property.

The process of unwinding those debts, and writing them off is deflationary.

 

The change was "no news at all... people just stopped buying them." - A change in attitudes.

Then, "all the financial markets collapsed in tandem."

 

"All the wealth that people think they have disappears as easily as it was created.

Areas of malinvestment get deserted."

 

I highly recommend the interview.

 

I think that interview was excellent wit the right questions asked and the right answers given. It is hard to outpunch Prechter. I believe he will be proved correct on deflation, on the economy on basically everything.

 

What I would most like to hear now is a fresh defence of gold by Ian Gordon in Prechters deflationary scenario. I agree it is deflation we will see. Prechter sees it all coming down. Gordon sees it all coming down except gold. I can handle that commodities will come down, what I am not so certain of is this-that there will not be a rush to gold and the companies which mine it. Bearing in mind there is nowhere else to hide except 'safe bonds/treasuries', will not smart money just bypass potential risks and flow straight to gold (and silver maybe) as a wealth preserver of the last resort, forcing the market higher and higher a la Gordon and Alf Fields contention?

 

I would love it if gold came down to 650 again and silver to 6, but is that now realistic given the severity and the fear of currency crises/safe haven etc... What I am trying to say is that I think gold presents a safer looking risk hedge than simple cash for the next few years. This would sustain the gold market and draw in more cash sending it further and further up rather than down to 650.

 

Perhaps the best strategy would be half Prechter, half Gordon. I have a feeling land for food would be a good/useful buy too.

 

Great interview, thanks for posting!

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I would love it if gold came down to 650 again and silver to 6, but is that now realistic given the severity and the fear of currency crises/safe haven etc... What I am trying to say is that I think gold presents a safer looking risk hedge than simple cash for the next few years. This would sustain the gold market and draw in more cash sending it further and further up rather than down to 650.

 

Perhaps the best strategy would be half Prechter, half Gordon. I have a feeling land for food would be a good/useful buy too.

 

Great interview, thanks for posting!

Sounds a good strategy. In the rush to liquidity gold, silver and certain forms of cash will do well... though perhaps not all at the same time. I like the inverted pyramid which shows how capital will seek to preserve itself as it moves down the "food chain".

 

Exetersinversepyramid.jpg

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Sounds a good strategy. In the rush to liquidity gold, silver and certain forms of cash will do well... though perhaps not all at the same time. I like the inverted pyramid which shows how capital will seek to preserve itself as it moves down the "food chain".

 

Exetersinversepyramid.jpg

 

And as if on cue there is a new Gordon interview with jay Rubin over on Kitco. Basically more of the same. We are only at the very beginnings...the rush to gold send it to 4000 us/ounce and Dow 1000, thus one sovereign will buy the dow. Gold shines through the darkness etc...etc...

 

So we have Prechter's deflation; a long way to the bottom, tobogganing down the valley, gold to 650 and Gordon's deflation in agreement except for gold which will rise to 4000 as THE only flight to safety.

 

Gold, cash, (land). Everything in between for the profesional traders. Simple really.

 

I'd still like to hear them go head to head on Gold.

 

'certain forms of cash' rh, please qualify if you mean currencies here.

 

 

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I listened to the FSN interview with Prechter yesterday. I really thought he tried to argue intelligently, but he still simply seems to get some things totally @$$-backwards.

 

IMO this is completely nuts. I give gold at $1,000,000/oz a much, much higher probability than the above.

 

He also argued that the Fed was only buying prime assets, and he makes a major distinction between the Fed and the Treasury. I think this is somewhat dangerous, as they work hand in hand. Also, how can the guaranteeing of Fannie/Freddie be good for the Dollar? This is so clearly rubbish, Jim Puplava often almost choked on his works because Prechter was talking such nonsense. He (Puplava) was really extremely polite.

 

I am not entirely in the Puplava camp, but Prechter seems not right either (Dow 400 will not happen).

 

I think we will see more bubble deflation (houses, stocks), but we will not go as far down as Prechter thinks. And we will go hyper sooner than he thinks. But I am also not as bullish (for inflation reasons) on stocks as Puplava is.

 

RP could be right if ...

 

Repeat : IF ... the US government begins to renegotiate DOWNWARDS its health and pension obligations.

 

This seems unlikely now.

 

But once the Boomers lose their grip on power, it may come to be seen as NECESSARY.

 

I do not think it is impossible.

In effect, they would say to retiring boomers:

We will pay you only what we (the post boomers) can afford

 

 

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Gold, cash, (land). Everything in between for the profesional traders. Simple really.

I'd still like to hear them go head to head on Gold.

'certain forms of cash' rh, please qualify if you mean currencies here.

 

Dont rule out MANIC SWINGS,

where each side will seem to be right for a while, until the next swing starts

 

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'certain forms of cash' rh, please qualify if you mean currencies here.

Yen and the dollar. I do not worry about the commodity currencies as the action in silver essentially covers them.

 

Either just sit on gold, silver, Yen and dollars, or, for the more adventurous [and unleveraged], swap them on favorable market condtions; when/if the market crashes, buy weakened silver with strengthened Yen/dollars, when/if the market peaks swap silver to gold and cash. Profits to be taken by accumulating gold of course [my rationale for holding these currencies is similiar to Bubb's view on manic swings in the market. A simple fx trade could be very lucrative as long as the market is volatile. I like the term conflation to describe current market confusion :rolleyes: ].

 

Yen still strengthening I see. You are lucky to be earning a strengthening currency... the Korean won has been strengthening lately [against the dollar] and I'll be looking to swap some to dollars soon.... as I think Won is a lot more vulnerable than Yen to weakening once again.

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Yelnick...

 

After that wave 3 finishes we will have a better idea what degree we are in. if you buy that this is...

the STU primary wave [3] down (so-called P3), we are only in of 1 of (1) of P3 - a LOT more downside.

But it may not be that bad - the various choices for which degree down are listed in yesterday's post. The STU concludes their wave count this way:

 

The top wave structure is the one that we’ve been discussing: Primary wave 2 (circle) topped on September 23 at 9918.00 in the DJIA and 1080.15 in the S&P and Primary wave 3 (circle) down is now in its infancy. The alternate counts sport much lower odds at the current market juncture, so we won’t discuss them now. If the evidence changes, we’ll then delve into other potentials.

 

For you Neely fans, his confidence is growing as well that a major top is in, right where he called the end of his fractal a week ago.

 

/more: http://yelnick.typepad.com/

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Yen and the dollar. I do not worry about the commodity currencies as the action in silver essentially covers them.

 

Either just sit on gold, silver, Yen and dollars, or, for the more adventurous [and unleveraged], swap them on favorable market condtions; when/if the market crashes, buy weakened silver with strengthened Yen/dollars, when/if the market peaks swap silver to gold and cash.

 

Strongest quasi-currency of them all: SPX Puts maybe

 

I am holding something like:

 

40% USD

25% C$

5% A$

5% Gold Calls & equivalents

25% SPX Puts ( and a few QQQ and IYR puts)

 

Plus the remnants of my Junior Miners (reduced by 75% from the high)

 

== ==

 

Here's ElliotWaver, Tony Caldaro:

"If we have indeed witnessed the end of Primary wave B, Primary wave C should last many months,

and either retest the SPX 667 low, or break through it into the SPX 400's."

/see: If we have indeed witnessed the end of Primary wave B, Primary wave C should last many months, and either retest the SPX 667 low, or break through it into the SPX 400's.

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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=126958

 

Riding Down the Moody Dow

Cramming for the Downside

By GREG MOSES

 

The modern-day Pythagoras of market forecasting Robert Prechter has been predicting a crash of historic proportions, but that's not the most interesting thing. More interesting is why he sees it coming.

 

As a theorist of the Elliot Wave, Prechter grounds his forecasts upon a mathematical pattern that tracks impulses of social mood. Everything else is symptomatic.

 

The background theory of the Elliott Wave is different from the kind of thinking that expects a straight-line series of effects from causes. Instead, the Elliott Wave returns us to pre-modern intuitions of cycles. It must have been clear to anyone caught up in the recent Bear market rally that pure stubbornness had taken hold of buyers. On Prechter's account, that stubbornness is about to change sides.

 

If the humming engine of human history rides a geometry of social mood, then downtimes cannot be caused by anything that uptimes do--although consequences of downtimes can be altered by the preparations that uptimes make. As social mood descends into the seventh circle of hell, there will be every temptation to blame the descent itself upon uptime actors. Yet all blaming will miss an important point.

 

What could the natural purpose of downtime be? In the bullish 1978 book, Elliott Wave Principle, Prechter and A.J. Frost argue that the up and down waves of social mood provide “the most efficient method of achieving both fluctuation and progress in a linear movement” (26). If social mood adjusts the mode of our approach to reality, then we see things differently and engage them differently when we are up. But that means there are things to learn when we are down, too.

 

On the fractal model of the Elliott Wave, we experience smaller fluctuations of mood within a series of larger patterns. In his bearish book of 2002, Conquer the Crash, Prechter argues that we are on the cusp of a very large degree downward drift. We will be learning hard lessons the hard way, and largely because that's what down moods are good for. Such lessons will be meant to last more than a lifetime, and we are the generation fated to carry these lessons forward.

 

We will shortly see which lessons from the high times have any worth in the valley of our shadows. Old man winter is a rock hard grader. There can be no bonus points for students who do not use the warm months to prepare. Get ready for some serious grade deflation.

 

To begin thinking about the political future that would correspond with Prechter's crash assumptions, we could turn our clocks back to Franklin Roosevelt's presidency or the less-remembered panic of 1837. Unlike Roosevelt, who was able to transform depression politics into a winning streak, Democrat Martin Van Buren was not able to win even a second term against the mood of 1840. He was ousted by the “log cabin” Whig candidate William Henry Harrison, who promptly died of pneumonia.

 

Illness is a fateful consequence of down moods according to Prechter's systematic theory of Socionomics. Looked into your local flu clinic lately?

 

Perhaps the most reliable guide to downtime politics will be found in the life—and the curiously timed death—of Huey Long, who argued that American politics had better deliver a Christmas tree after every election if politicians wanted people to prefer the ballot box as their form of political change. Depression politics killed the messenger but not the message. If the Constitution survives the coming crash, it will earn its keep through tangible benefits.

 

Returning to the crash of 1835 to 1842, I choose to think about Emerson, who opened 1836 with the essay "Nature." If you want to maintain order in your mind and spirit the thing to do is take long walks in the woods. Interesting how Ken Burns turns our attention this very week to the conservation system expressed in our national parks. There is an American mecca, and it boasts a jobs program that can't be outsourced.

 

Reading Emerson's 1836 text as a downtime crammer gets more interesting when we see that Chapter 2 is about "Commodity." How poor can we be, Emerson asks, so long as we live upon the earth? "Nature, in its ministry to man,” he writes, “is not only the material, but is also the process and the result." We live in the arms of a "divine charity." Commodity cuts a path to Beauty so long as we nurture the inwardness of the work we do. Emerson pulls Thoreau aside in 1837. “Do you keep a journal?" As the nation falls into panic, Thoreau began to write.

 

On the model of nature that was so important to Emerson and Thoreau during that great depression, I think about a big tree. Part of the tree puts out leaves, reaching up, showing off. We have been through a great leafing time together.

 

Another part of the tree works ever in the dark, quietly pushing downward in solitary, unforeseeable effort. Of course the deepest roots could blame the highest leaves for making all the dark work necessary. But that would be like blaming Wall Street for the collective turn we are about to make.

 

Then there is the ugly stuff, the kind of thing that Thoreau went to jail over. As downtime invites the spiritualist to dig deeper within, it also kicks up real dust. Never before have the tools of conflict been so lethally arrayed. Remember the Alamo? That was 1836. Over in Alabama, the Creek nation was driven off its land, again. In Florida, federal troops at Ft. Defiance drew "first blood" in the Seminole War.

 

If Prechter is right for the right reasons, then in about two more years it should be clear enough to everyone why the peace movement must prevail. Surely, that would be a lesson worth learning once and for all.

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My Own Elliott Wave count - in edit from 10/23 :: updated chart

 

aa1d.gif

 

I am using the 13d/10d.MA's to confirm trends:

 

+ In wave.a, the 10d. crossed below the 13d. briefly to confirm wave.iii was done,

+ After wave.iv, prices shot up for a last gasp into a wave.v top,

+ The next crossover of the 10d.MA below 13d was in wave.b

+ The 10d. crossed below the 13d. briefly (again) to confirm c's wave.iii was done,

+ After wave.iv, prices shot up for a last gasp into a wave c's v top,

 

Wave c finished right at the top of a gap, going back to October 3-6th, 2008

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