Jump to content
drbubb

The Elliott Wave thread / Comments, links, charts

Recommended Posts

GEI's Elliottwave thread

Discuss R.Prechter & S.Hochberg's ideas

Post your own charts, with wave counts

============================

 

New!: xxx : Link to China vs. Japan thread

 

GEI is an Affiliate of Elliott Wave International. Near the top of the page, you will find a EWI Banner on GEI, which would give our readers direct access to some of the offerings from EWI, including items like Robert Prechter's 40-page book on Gold & Silver.

 

ewigsx.jpg -- ewithread3.jpg

To the Gold & Silver book offer -- This link will take you back to this thread

 

I am also hopeful that Bob Prechter or Steve Hochberg will be willing to do an interview with Commodity Watch Radio, or even participate in a future GEI conference call.

 

This thread is to discuss Elliott Wave theory, and the ideas of EWI's two star writers.

 

At least one of our regular posters has done extremely well using their newsletters, and I think as others get acquainted, they will find EWI's services have good value too.

 

I certainly think that Conquer the Crash is a must-read, and Bob Prechter has to be consider one of the most articulate members of the Deflationist camp. That's another subject that can be discussed on this thread.

 

= = = = =

LINKS

Elliott Wave Tutorial :: 10 Free Lessons

Deflation argument. :: Inflation Vs. Deflation

Credit Crisis............ :: The Credit Crisis Survival Kit

EWI's video channel :: http://www.youtube.c...elliottwaveintl

Alternative E-wave.. :: Warnings from Neowave's Glenn Neelly

AllAllan Neowaver... :: http://allallan.blogspot.com/

Tony Caldero's Blog :: http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ : his charts

Planet Yelnick......... :: http://yelnick.typepad.com/

Chris Carolan......... :: http://twitter.com/spiralcal : http://carolan.org

. . .

EW Discussions elsewhere:

a : http://forexforums.d...m/elliott-wave/

b : http://www.elitetrad...threadid=101387

c :

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PRECHTER ON FINANCIAL SENSE, etc.

=======

 

robert-prechter.jpg..elliotwave2.gif

 

Stockchart's Chart School

 

Bob Prechter has appeared as a Guest expert on FS three times.

 

The transcripts of those interviews are available here:

 

10/07/06 Update 2006 and preview of new book : Transcript

06/18/05 Update 2005 on Conquer the Crash ... : Transcript

02/01/03 Update 2003 on Conquer the Crash ... : Transcript

 

OTHER

=====

Elliott Wave Disciple Robert Prechter Sees Dow 2000*

http://www.checkthemarkets.com/index.php?o...3&Itemid=40

20 days ago

In February 1995, the US economy was in great shape. The 1990-92 recession had been over for a couple of years, the Federal Reserve was beginning to ease interest rates, the ...

feeds.digg.com

 

Robert Prechter, advocate of Elliott Wave Theory, advises to cover Short Positions

http://nedgrace.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/r...hort-positions/

3 months ago

By Sarah Jones - Bloomberg Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Elliott Wave International Inc.'s Robert Prechter, who advised shorting US stocks three months before the bear market began, ...

nedgrace.wordpress.com

 

*excerpt:

Prechter managed to call this year's March bottom, expecting a substantial bear market rally at around 6,300 on the Dow, close to the bottom. However, he expects the market to resume its downward trend shortly, ending with a decline similar to the 86% in real terms of 1929-32 as we are in a long Elliott Wave downswing. That would take the Dow down to around 2,000.

. . .

The current crisis more closely resembles the British crisis of 1972-75, which caused a drop of 72% from the high, or the Japanese crisis after 1990, which brought a drop of 70% within three years, and led to a long-term bear market that has left that market in its current doldrums, about 80% below its peak. For us to see a similar 70% decline from the Dow high, we'd have to be looking at an index that had fallen all the way down to about 4,400. At that point, it would about as cheap as after the 1987 crash, though still not as cheap as it was in 1982, before the great bull market began.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am also hopeful that Bob Prechter or Steve Hochberg will be willing to do an interview with Commodity Watch Radio, or even participate in a future GEI conference call.

Thats an excellent idea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have already subscribed to Elliot Wave International (the free bit) and nearly finished reading Robert Prechter's 40-page book on Gold & Silver - I was skeptical of EW by the predictions people were making, but I'm eager to learn the basics. The book is quite impressive as Prechter maps out the waves of the late 70's gold bull market in one of his Elliot Wave Theorist reports in December 1979 and says the top is nearly in.

 

Anyone investing in gold to the eventually peak should hang on to his guys coat-tails - take him seriously because he was completely right in the last gold bull market. It would be great to get more people here understanding and using EW...... it seems very complicated at first, but is slowly sinking in for me at least.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EWI's Steve Hochberg interviewed

yueminjun.jpg

 

Eight Year Old Bear & Intro to Elliott Wave Principle

http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-us&...89-ca9427a2bcab

MoneyShow.com

 

Dow in Terms of Gold

http://video.aol.com/video-detail/dow-in-t...gold/2067884793

2:38:00 - 2 months ago

Hochberg of Elliott Wave International explains why he looks at the Dow in terms of gold to assess the major trends, and why he sees trou...

video.aol.com

 

Today's Market Outlook

http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-us&...89-ca9427a2bcab

06:50 - 3 months ago

Perspectives on the economy, with Jeffrey Saut, Raymond James and Steve Hochberg, Elliott Wave International.

video.msn.com

 

Surviving the Shock Market

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=479324272

9 months ago

Tips on surviving this unpredictable market, with Steve Hochberg, Elliott Wave International chief market strategist, and Peter Canelo, Canelo Assoc. investment strategist.

cnbc.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"The unOfficial Elliottwave thread"

 

GEI is now officially accepted as an affiliate of EWI.

 

They requested that I change the name of the thread here, which I was happy to do.

There was concern that some people may think that EWI somehow supports or endorses the discussion here. That is not the case, nor do I want to give people that impression.

 

OTHER CHATS

If people know of other good chatboard discussions about Elliot Wave, Prechter or EWI, I am happy to post links to them in the header.

 

I want things here to be as open as possible, but I dont think it is appropriate to lift charts from EWI's copyrighted material. But our own wave counts should be fine. I will soon post some of my own wave count charts.

 

It will be interesting to see if we pick up new members on GEI who come here specifically to discuss Elliott Wave related trading concepts. They are most welcome

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tom Obrien is labelling the recent trading as "distributiion" because...

 

Stocks make fresh highs, and then fail to hold them.

These moves are coming with unimpressive volume, suggesting the move is "running out of juice"

(ie volume and momentum), as Tom puts it.

 

zzzzq.gif

 

That's my Elliott Wave count on recent days

 

Volume on the new highs is less than it was back at the High marked by a "3"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SPY ... close-10d.intraday

zzzzq.gif

That's my Elliott Wave count on recent days

Volume on the new highs is less than it was back at the High marked by a "3"

 

I will be getting EWI's reports for the next few weeks.

I cannot copy them here obviously, neither the charts. But maybe I can give a little of the flavor.

 

Their count is similar to my own (above) albeit much more detailed.

 

Friday's action on Wall Street, they describe as "solidly bearish", with more stocks up than down.

 

A break of Wednesday's low (SPX-928, at "little 4") would be the first sign that something nastier is developing.

 

EWI is expecting Gold to drop sharply, possibly below the Oct.2008 low of $681.

The reckon a dollar rally is still underway, since "percentage bulls" got down to just 6%

 

 

STEVE HOCHBERG is interviewed on FS this week, in the opening hour:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(This was at the end of the March Elliott Wave Theorist/ EWT.

It is non-proprietary news, so I dont think they will mind if I publish it here):

 

"The Ludwig von Mises Institute kindly posted an expanded version of the "Jaguar Inflation" piece that appeared in the February 2004 issue of EWT. You are welcome to read this longer version at: http://mises.org/story/3329 "

 

Georgia must be the most progressive state in the union. Two members of the Georgia House of Reprsentatives have sponsored a "Constitutional Tender Act", that would "require that any bank conducting business with the state accept gold and silver coins as deposits*... This bill won't pass, at least not this year. But I predict a far friendlier climate for honest money as the bear market progresses.

 

*Atlanta Business Chronicle, 3/6/09

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An alternative to the EWI forecast

 

dow-jones-forecast-dec08_image001.gif

 

article : MarketOracle-JoeRusso-ElliottWaveTechnology

 

His forecast (from Dec.2008) nailed the March Low more-or-less.

 

He forecast INDU-6700, the actual low was xxx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

U.S. likely to lose AAA rating - Prechter

 

Tue Jun 16, 2009 .. By John Parry

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.

 

Prechter, known for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, joins a growing coterie of market heavyweights in forecasting the United States will lose its top credit rating as the government issues trillions of dollars in debt to fund efforts to bail out the economy.

 

Fears about the long-term vulnerability of the prized U.S. credit rating came to the fore after Standard & Poor's in May lowered its outlook on Britain, threatening the UK's top AAA rating. That move raised fears that the United States could face a similar risk, with the hefty amounts of government debt issued in both countries to pay for financial rescues causing budget deficits to swell.

 

Prechter, speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York, said he sees investors' confidence in an economic rebound fading, a trend that will drag the S&P 500 stock index well below the March 6 intraday low of 666.79 by the end of this year or early next.

 

"There will be a leg down in stock prices, and it will affect all other areas," including corporate bonds and commodities, said Prechter, who is executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, based in Gainesville, Georgia.

 

/more: http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews...16?rpc=401&

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FREE REPORT - "Discover the Bull Markets You’re Missing"

 

EWI have just posted a recent issue of the Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast free with Club EWI signup.

 

Click : here

 

Asian-Pacific Stock Indexes Are Poised for Big Moves – Be Ready.

 

EWI helps you to separate the bulls from bears for 8 of Asia’s biggest markets

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Prechter's nuanced approach to gold and silver.

 

Gold is Still Money

by Robert Prechter, President, Elliott Wave International | June 12, 2009

 

http://financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2009/0612.html

Promissory notes issued by a state and declared the only legal tender are always doomed to depreciate to worthlessness because of the natural incentives and forces associated with governments. A state cannot resist a method of confiscating assets, particularly one that is hidden from the view of most voters and subjects. By extension, it is unreasonable to advocate a standard for such notes, which is simply a state’s promise that its currency will always be redeemable in a specific amount of something valuable, such as gold. A gold standard of this type is only as good as the political promises behind it, reducing its value to no more than that of paper. It could be argued, in fact, that a state-sponsored gold standard is far more dangerous than none at all, as it imbues citizens with a false sense of security. Their long range plans are thus built upon an unreliable promise that the monetary measuring unit will remain stable. Later, when the government’s “IOU-something specific” becomes, as Colonel E.C. Harwood put it, “IOU nothing in particular,” reliability disappears and the arbitrary reigns. Although the populace tends to retain its confidence in the currency for awhile thereafter, the ultimate result is chaos.

 

The only sound monetary system is a voluntary one. The free market always chooses the best possible form, or forms, of money. To date, the market’s choice throughout the centuries, wherever a free market for money has existed, has been and remains precious metal and currency redeemable in precious metal. This preference will undoubtedly remain until a better form of money is discovered and chosen. Until then, prices for goods and services should be denominated not in state fictions such as dollars or yen or francs, but in specific weights of today’s preferred monetary metal, i.e., in grams of gold. Anyone might issue promissory notes as currency, but the acceptance of such paper certificates would then be an individual decision, and risks of loss through imprudence or dishonesty would be borne by only a few individuals by their own conscious choice after considering the risks. Critical to the understanding of the wisdom of such a system is the knowledge that private issuers of paper against gold have every long run incentive to provide a sound product, just as do producers of any product. As a result, risks would be minimal, as the market would provide its own policing. Thievery and imprudence will not disappear among men, but at least such tendencies in a free market for money would not have the potential to be institutionalized, as they are when a state controls the currency. From a macroeconomic viewpoint, occasional losses resulting from dishonesty or imprudence would be extremely limited in scope, as opposed to the nationwide disasters that state controlled paper money has facilitated throughout history, which have in turn had global repercussions. As Elliott Wave Principle put it, “That paper is no substitute for gold as a store of value is probably another of nature’s laws.”

 

That being said, it is also true, and crucial to wise investing, that markets come in both “bull” and “bear” types. Being a “gold bug” at the wrong time can be very costly in currency terms. For nearly three decades, gold and silver’s dollar price trends have confounded the precious metals enthusiasts, who for the entire period have argued that soaring gold and silver prices were “just around the corner” because the Fed’s policies “guarantee runaway inflation.” Yet today, 29 years after the January 1980 peaks in these metals and despite consistent inflation throughout this time, their combined dollar value (weighting each metal equally) is still 40 percent less than it was then.

 

It is all well and good to despise fiat money, but it is hardly useful to sit in gold and silver as if no other opportunities exist. In contrast to the one-note approach, which has had an immense opportunity cost since 1980, competent market analysis can help you make many timely and profitable financial decisions in all markets, including gold and silver.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've got a lot of time for Mr Prechter and the EWI and Socionomist makes great reading. He is also a self professed Gold Bug-caveat- at the right time...

 

However for as long as I can remember he has made the wrong calls, consistently, regarding gold. Back in 2004 he was suggesting that we had deflation and gold would drop to 200 dollars (about 400 at the time). In 2006 he was saying it'd drop to 400 and now in 2009 he is saying it will drop to 720. Ummm. There is a part where he says that gold COULD be in a cyclical bull within a bear.

 

And of course he COULD be right. But I dont think so. Now gold dropping to 720 (havent we recently HAD that back in Autumn?) would be a bonus chance to buy, IMO. And it looks possible if you study the charts factoring in some more juicy de-leveraging. But it looks UNLIKELY and you would be wise to average in when the chances pop up on the dips (like now-ish?).

 

Despite this error re gold, he has always suggested that there are far better ways and have been far better ways up to now to make more money in other investments than gold. And I dare say he is right if you are into the wheeling/dealing/shorting ways of the professionals. But we are not all at that point, nor have the time to become full time Traders. Some of us are teachers and nurses, musicians and artists. I would find it refreshing if at some point he would come out and say 'Listen guys, we all make bad calls and my mistake keeping y'all out of the gold bull before my eyes was, well, a major cock up, and you should have been IN from 2000-so sorry.'

 

Of course his original crash analysis is brilliant and he could be right. Gold could go all the way back down to xxdollars. I really dont know. I don't think Alf Fields agrees though. And nor would Ian Gordon. In all honesty I don't think even he thinks it will bomb out so much. He recently suggests that it is wise to have xx% of wealth in physical gold as insurance, and it can't hurt to own a bit of silver, despite it going to be REAL CHEAP in 2012...if you can get your hands on any then, oh and by the way it might run out by 2021, lalala.

 

As with beer, cigars, and chocolate it is better to not gorge oneself on gold and silver, but it would be unwise to be without what you fancy. So a little bit of moderation and just keep chipping away. At some point for you or your children it will come in handy to say the least...and might do a lot more.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've got a lot of time for Mr Prechter and the EWI and Socionomist makes great reading. He is also a self professed Gold Bug-caveat- at the right time...

 

However for as long as I can remember he has made the wrong calls, consistently, regarding gold. Back in 2004 he was suggesting that we had deflation and gold would drop to 200 dollars (about 400 at the time). In 2006 he was saying it'd drop to 400 and now in 2009 he is saying it will drop to 720. Ummm. There is a part where he says that gold COULD be in a cyclical bull within a bear.

 

And of course he COULD be right. But I dont think so. Now gold dropping to 720 (havent we recently HAD that back in Autumn?) would be a bonus chance to buy, IMO. And it looks possible if you study the charts factoring in some more juicy de-leveraging. But it looks UNLIKELY and you would be wise to average in when the chances pop up on the dips (like now-ish?).

 

Despite this error re gold, he has always suggested that there are far better ways and have been far better ways up to now to make more money in other investments than gold. And I dare say he is right if you are into the wheeling/dealing/shorting ways of the professionals. But we are not all at that point, nor have the time to become full time Traders. Some of us are teachers and nurses, musicians and artists. I would find it refreshing if at some point he would come out and say 'Listen guys, we all make bad calls and my mistake keeping y'all out of the gold bull before my eyes was, well, a major cock up, and you should have been IN from 2000-so sorry.'

 

Of course his original crash analysis is brilliant and he could be right. Gold could go all the way back down to xxdollars. I really dont know. I don't think Alf Fields agrees though. And nor would Ian Gordon. In all honesty I don't think even he thinks it will bomb out so much. He recently suggests that it is wise to have xx% of wealth in physical gold as insurance, and it can't hurt to own a bit of silver, despite it going to be REAL CHEAP in 2012...if you can get your hands on any then, oh and by the way it might run out by 2021, lalala.

 

As with beer, cigars, and chocolate it is better to not gorge oneself on gold and silver, but it would be unwise to be without what you fancy. So a little bit of moderation and just keep chipping away. At some point for you or your children it will come in handy to say the least...and might do a lot more.

Good post. I wonder if Prechter has now realised that the dollar is in trouble. This would make al world od difference for a deflationist's view of gold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In-Depth Look - Market Inflation - Bloomberg

 

Betty Liu interviews Robert Prechter:

 

"A bear market into 2011?" "Definitely."

 

"The current rally is a temporary one."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 Things You Should and

Should Not Do During Deflation

by Robert Prechter, President, Elliott Wave International | June 19, 2009

 

Article: http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2009/0619.html

 

NO, to:

Real estate, Commercial bonds, Collectibles, Stock speculation, Most commodities (incl. Oil),

 

YES, to:

Political changes, Business precautions, Anything that enhances job security, Getting loans repaid and retiring debt,

Investing in cash

 

More here : REPORT on Inflation vs. Deflation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for that Dr Bubb.

 

So we got Neely saying down to 500 next week(?) and Prechter saying up to 1100 temporarily before continuing down to lows of 2008.

 

I'm interested to see how Neely thinks long term. For Prechter the long term weather radar says rain and depression for a long time, like years of deflation, within which we'll see sunny spells where the fleet footed can make a bundle while the eternal optimists and long termers will get shorn. This is generally his picture I think and I agree with him, except perhaps for gold because what else will there be to run to?

 

Now what is Neely's long term view Dr Bubb? Any hints?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for that Dr Bubb.

 

So we got Neely saying down to 500 next week(?) and Prechter saying up to 1100 temporarily before continuing down to lows of 2008.

 

I'm interested to see how Neely thinks long term. For Prechter the long term weather radar says rain and depression for a long time, like years of deflation, within which we'll see sunny spells where the fleet footed can make a bundle while the eternal optimists and long termers will get shorn. This is generally his picture I think and I agree with him, except perhaps for gold because what else will there be to run to?

 

Now what is Neely's long term view Dr Bubb? Any hints?

 

I think you may find that earlier in the Neowave Warning thread - I havent time to look now.

 

From memory, he sees something bad short term, but longer term, he sees big rallies coming, I believe.

If he is right, it might be simply because rising inflation ignites higher stock prices

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Dr Bubb,

 

Great link and an interesting article although I don't really understand the link with Elliot waves.

 

I thought Elliot waves were invented by a clever chappy who managed to predict direction of future sentiment:

 

economicconfidence86yea.th.png

 

I can see how this could be used for long term plays (like the current recession playing out) but how do people use it in normal day to day trades?

 

Do many people here understand Elliot waves? can they be reproduced by individuals? Has anyone had any luck successfully deciphering and applying this technique?

 

If anyone has any personal experience I would be very interested to hear about it :)

 

Edit to add: sorry if this is a noob question :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Dr Bubb,

 

Great link and an interesting article although I don't really understand the link with Elliot waves.

 

I thought Elliot waves were invented by a clever chappy who managed to predict direction of future sentiment:

 

economicconfidence86yea.th.png

 

I can see how this could be used for long term plays (like the current recession playing out) but how do people use it in normal day to day trades?

 

Do many people here understand Elliot waves? can they be reproduced by individuals? Has anyone had any luck successfully deciphering and applying this technique?

 

If anyone has any personal experience I would be very interested to hear about it :)

 

Edit to add: sorry if this is a noob question :unsure:

 

Check out Douche Dore's "The Great Dow High's of 2007" thread

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I will be getting EWI's reports for the next few weeks.

I cannot copy them here obviously, neither the charts. But maybe I can give a little of the flavor.

Their count is similar to my own (above) albeit much more detailed.

 

Friday's action on Wall Street, they describe as "solidly bearish", with more stocks up than down.

A break of Wednesday's low (SPX-928, at "little 4") would be the first sign that something nastier is developing.

 

We've seen the break.

And after yesterday's action, they see much greater downside.

 

The Short Term summary, which comes out on M, W, and F, after the market close, provided interesting detail, like this:

 

"Today’s sharp decline likely qualifies as another 90% downside day, making it the second one of the past week and a half. In addition, today’s NYSE Tick of minus 1340 is the third strongest downside Tick since the Primary wave 1 (circle) low in early March, supporting the case that there was intense selling pressure throughout today’s session."

 

Their first target is near SPX-880, same as Tom Obrien's (and mine also, but I think that may break now*)

 

EWI remaining rabidly bearish on Gold, talking about some very deep falls:

"odds still favor that prices will eventually come under the wave (A) low of $680.75."

== ==

 

*My reason for expecting more downside is that VXN has hardly budged from its lows, suggesting that

there is little or no fear, and how do we get a low without that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We've seen the break.

And after yesterday's action, they see much greater downside.

 

The Short Term summary, which comes out on M, W, and F, after the market close, provided interesting detail, like this:

 

"Today’s sharp decline likely qualifies as another 90% downside day, making it the second one of the past week and a half. In addition, today’s NYSE Tick of minus 1340 is the third strongest downside Tick since the Primary wave 1 (circle) low in early March, supporting the case that there was intense selling pressure throughout today’s session."

 

Their first target is near SPX-880, same as Tom Obrien's (and mine also, but I think that may break now*)

 

EWI remaining rabidly bearish on Gold, talking about some very deep falls:

"odds still favor that prices will eventually come under the wave (A) low of $680.75."

== ==

 

*My reason for expecting more downside is that VXN has hardly budged from its lows, suggesting that

there is little or no fear, and how do we get a low without that?

 

Are they basically saying that the rally out of March is done. Listening to Hochberg on FSN a couple of month back they were looking at the move down to march as being 1 move, so they expected a longer corrective phase.

Personally I prefer the corrective phase as being from Oct as a lot of markets did not make new lows in March, it looks done from my point of view

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Are they basically saying that the rally out of March is done. Listening to Hochberg on FSN a couple of month back they were looking at the move down to march as being 1 move, so they expected a longer corrective phase.

Personally I prefer the corrective phase as being from Oct as a lot of markets did not make new lows in March, it looks done from my point of view

 

I think they are seeing this as a B wave down, with a C wave up still ahead.

Neowave seems to have a different opinion. They think the rally may be done, and a drop to fresh lows will come in 2H.2009

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×