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Larry Pesavento Is Back

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May 18th Combust

 

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2009/05/...single-combust/

 

A former member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Larry has been a trader for over 45 years. His unique methods which involve chart pattern recognition and planetary cycles have enabled him to make some amazing market calls over the past 18 months. He is the author of ten books on trading, the most recent of which, is called Trade What You See How To Profit From Pattern Recognition and is published by Wiley Trading.

 

Larry’s Website: Trading Tutor

 

Larry’s Book, Trade What You See, is available at Amazon - also at Play

 

To view the slide show PDF, click here.

 

= = = = =

LINKS:

Prior interview on CW Radio ............... :

Larry P's interviews on TFNN .............. http://www.tfnn.com/interview_archives.php

Where Fibonacci/ golden ratio appears : http://goldennumber.net/

 

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If anyone uses the Tiger's Den at tfnn.com , or any other chatboards where there might be an interest in this, can you post a link there? Many thanks. CC

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Thanks for doing this Dom - very interesting once again, particularly when he talked about Ermanometry and that you didn't have to use astrology. I've not heard about Ermanometry so that's something else I'll have to look into, along with the similar work of the late George Lindsay I've been looking at, all very interesting work. Just found some artiles on T.G. Butaney as well which will hopefully prove useful.....

 

I got the joke about gold lions as well, being born the day after Larry on the 29th July! - Leo's..... yes, usually very generous and they like gold as well ;)

 

 

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The Bradley chart was interesting , however I have seen it fail miserably in the past, was it later half of 06 when even Faber mentioned it. Will look forward to the Crawford interview, I hope Dominic gave him a hard time , he came out with some awful nonsense in the past

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Nice job - very interesting interview, and very timely too.

 

Although we have seen some big TURNS on "Combust" dates, Larry seems to be thinking that we will see either an acceleration of the drop, or the set-up for a two day rally.

 

Comparing his chart with mine, they look similar:

090517132416lp.png

Big Charts equivalent / static ... update (note: i sed 200d. rather than 252d.MA

aaal.gif

 

The reason he doesnt expect a low here, I reckon, is the correction has not been long enough.

 

Let's look at some Fibonacci retracement points

 

Index=== March Low : May High : change / pct.... : 50% ret. : 61.8% ret. : 38.2% ret. : LP Target

Nasdaq.... : 1268.6 - : 1772.9 --- : 503.6 /+39.7% : 1520.4 -- : 1461.0 --- : 1579.8 --- : ??

INDU/dow : 6,443.27 : 8,651.51 -: 2208 / +34.3% : 7547.3 -- : 7286.7 --- : 7807.8 --- : ??

S&P 500.. : 666.79 - : 930.17 --- : 263.4/ +39.5% : 798.49 -- : 767.40 --- : 829.57 --- : ??

QQQ........ : $25.63 - : $35.34 --- : $9.71/ +37.9% : $30.49 -- : $29.34 -- : $31.63 --- : ??

 

Focussing on SPX, there's further to go, to hit key levels:

S&P 500.. : 666.79 - : 930.17 --- : 263.4/ +39.5% : 798.49 -- : 767.40 --- : 829.57 --- : ??

 

The 38.2% retracement is SPX-829.57, that's another 6.0% below Friday's close of 882.88.

 

Gold etf's : GLD, DZZ (-), DGP (+), Expecting a Drop of "$30-$80 in Gold"

 

Names to Research

=============

T.J. Butney :

John Erman/ William Erman : http://www.linkedin.com/pub/william-erman/3/972/683

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Ermanometry Research

http://www.ermanometry.com/

 

Thanks for visiting us. We'll show you market moves perfect to the exact day. Some moves are over forty years long. Our principles apply to all freely traded markets; financials, Forex, agriculturals, metals, etc. "We hold these truths to be self evident," basis empirical evidence within the markets. "Perfect" is a bold claim. Therefore we'll prove it for you right now with a few examples. Two of them show perfection from the June 25, 1962 low to the October 10, 2002 low.

 

More delusional rubbish.

Anyone believing this rubbish should go visit the doctor and ask for a reality check ;):lol:

 

"Exact to the day" - geez give me a break :rolleyes:

 

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain

 

Unless of course you live in the dark ages and believe the universe runs like clockwork :lol: :lol:

 

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My attitude is to ... reserve judgment, until I see something more about his track record.

 

This is a great way to learn new techniques.

 

But his book is a bit expensive:

 

ERMANOMETRY-The Perfectly Patterned Stock Market | Ermanometry ...

Book title: ERMANOMETRY-The Perfectly Patterned Stock Market.

Author: William T. Erman. Publisher: Ermanometry Research. Price: $275. Pages: 300+

 

His website : http://www.aboutus.org/ErManOmetry.com

 

About Us

William T. Erman is the founder and president of Ermanometry Research. After graduation from Harvard University in 1951, he served in the US Army during the Korean War. After involvement in various business endeavors, he developed an interest in harmonious patterns he perceived in all freely traded markets. He has now been analyzing market movements for over thirty five years.

read more

Address

129 Woodmont Blvd

Nashville TN 37205 US

 

new-intro-example-2-thumb.gif

 

/more: http://www.ermanometry.com/

 

A tribute, for adding to understanding : http://goldennumber.net/phriends.htm

 

Another, from Erman's own website:

 

Kyle Yu, M.D.

"I have been a student of the stock market since 1980 and have not only witnessed a great deal of dramatic market action (e.g. the major low of 1982, the "crash" of 1987, and the current stock market mania as the Dow heads towards 10,000) but have also studied many different ways of evaluating the markets, from technical to fundamental analysis to trading system optimization. I have also followed the predictions of many market analysts over the years, including the market "gurus" who have come and gone. For these reasons, I consider myself an experienced and somewhat knowledgeable non-professional market participant. Several months ago, I had the good fortune of coming across Mr. Erman's work in a pre-publication draft of his upcoming book (Ermanometry), and although by now, I have become "jaded" and fundamentally skeptical about most so-called market "experts," I was immediately captivated by this man's ideas after just a few short pages. Of all the occasional good ideas that I have ever come across, only Mr. Erman's comes remotely close to what I would consider market "truth."

 

Successful market decision-making demands the highest level of precision, and no other methodology that I have ever come across comes close to the precision that Ermanometry aims for and achieves. I have never seen anyone attack the market "riddle" with as much rigor, energy, innovation, and success as Mr. Erman. When it comes to the markets, I am very demanding, and I rarely give any so-called market "expert" more than 1 or 2 chances to deliver on their promises. Mr. Erman delivered on his first try. Among his predictions that I saw come to pass was the recent major market low of 9/1/98. I would guess that you have never heard of Ermanometry before - I certainly didn't until just recently. That is because Mr. Erman has given the benefit of his work only to professional money managers in the past. Fortunately for us non-professionals, Mr. Erman is a true student of the markets who has chosen to share what he has discovered of market "truth" with all who are interested. Mr. Erman's ideas are not simple or simplistic, nor should any truly scholarly work be. I have been around long enough to know that nobody can or will deliver the "goose that laid the golden egg" to your doorstep. You have to make your own decisions to be successful, and a strict money management approach is mandatory, but you also need the right tools, and if you take the time and energy to understand Ermanometry, you will soon discover that it is a tool you cannot do without. As for me, I am planning to hang onto Mr. Erman's coattails."

 

== ==

 

Yet Another:

Sam Donaldson

Experience in our day to day trading and research has proven to me that Ermanometry is an invaluable tool. The basic principles of Bill Erman's work were first uncovered in the silver and soybean markets. I was a bit concerned that the impressive accuracy of his methods, when used to analyze a single commodity, would be difficult to duplicate when the work as applied to a "basket" of contracts, such as an index with 30-500 individual stocks. The fact that Ermanometry has proven equally powerful with both individual commodities and indices is further proof of the commonality of markets and the universal principles that comprise the body of his work. Any serious trader who does not investigate and benefit from this cutting edge approach will be at a serious disadvantage.

 

+1

Peter Borish

I am proud to have been one of the very first people to support Bill Erman's work when I was Director of Research at the Tudor Group. I have witnessed his work evolve into an entirely new and powerful science of market analysis. I believe Bill's contributions to the field will have a lasting impact and open the eyes of those who believe market movements are completely random.

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Some Back Checking research...

 

Just Another Bright, Sunshiney Day on Wall Street

 

Aaron Task

08/04/99 - 09:06 PM EDT

 

There's a growing sense (hope?) stocks are "oversold" (you almost never hear people say "overbought," do you?) and will bounce if tomorrow's productivity numbers and/or Friday's employment data are at all friendly. Other than that, I'm afraid I can't offer anything to make it all better.

 

In that light (the oversold bounce vs. the "I want my Mommy!" light, that is) William Erman, founder of Ermanometry Research, an ultratechnical quant shop in Nashville, Tenn., emailed clients today to say he'd upped the key support level for the S&P 500 (cash) to 1305 from 1300.

 

"Penetration of this price level indicates a 10-to-1 probability that the market would EVENTUALLY decline significantly (below the May lows) within the next few weeks," he wrote. "'Eventually' is emphasized because shorter-term indicators show STRONG SUPPORT at this same level."

 

aaaqxy.gif

The S&P 500 closed at 1305.33 today after trading as low as 1304.50 intraday, on which Erman focuses exclusively.

 

"The die is cast," he said in a postclose phone interview. "Long-term indicators are telling us we're going to have a significant deterioration and take out the May 27 low [of 1277.30] on the S&P 500. Exit on any kind of strength or, if you can stand a little heat, get short now."

 

Meanwhile, a source on the frontline reports: "It is getting ugly out there. I saw a person in a daytrading chat room talking about selling his car to make his margin calls."\\

 

/more: http://www.cdn.thestreet.com/print/story/771067.html

 

== ==

 

NOT a particularly great call. However, he could have made money being short,

if he covered at the right time. One point taken in isolation proves nothing

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Nice job - very interesting interview, and very timely too.

Although we have seen some big TURNS on "Combust" dates in the past, Larry seems to be thinking that we will see either an acceleration of the drop, or the set-up for a 2-3 day rally.

 

Judging from HK and the UK,

... and India and Sri Lanka...

it looks like we might get a quick BOUNCE (or more!) instead

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Gold etf's : GLD, DZZ (-), DGP (+), Expecting a Drop of "$30-$80 in Gold"

 

DZZ is the "double short" on gold ... update

bigi.gif

 

DGP is the "double long" on gold ... update

bigx.gif

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Something like this might happen ... update

www.gif

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More delusional rubbish.

Anyone believing this rubbish should go visit the doctor and ask for a reality check ;):lol:

 

"Exact to the day" - geez give me a break :rolleyes:

 

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain

 

Unless of course you live in the dark ages and believe the universe runs like clockwork :lol: :lol:

 

 

Yes exact to the day!!

 

History does indeed repeat in the markets. My forecasts for tops and bottoms this year have worked out spot on. I nominated May 7 as a high in the S&P one month before the date. And I'm on public record as having done so!

 

What you ought to say in your statement above is "I'm too dumb to listen to someone with more knowledge than myself therefore I'll rubbish what he says"

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Although we have seen some big TURNS on "Combust" dates, \Larry seems to be thinking that we will see either an acceleration

of the drop, or the set-up for a two day rally.

 

We may have seen the beginning of an acceleration down in Bonds/ TLT

nochartgifcomptime3freq.gif

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I listened to Larry on Tom Obrien's show:

 

He said:

+ The combust "came in on Sunday", so now we should see a rally from oversold

+ He expects 3-4 days of rally, and "not nore", since this is a single Combust. not a triple like we saw before

+ He doesnt expect the rally to go past May 11th's high (92.11)

 

SPY Intraday ... update

 

+ Bonds are very weak, and he sees them dropping from the cuurent level above 120, maybe 80

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Yes exact to the day!!

 

History does indeed repeat in the markets. My forecasts for tops and bottoms this year have worked out spot on. I nominated May 7 as a high in the S&P one month before the date. And I'm on public record as having done so!

 

What you ought to say in your statement above is "I'm too dumb to listen to someone with more knowledge than myself therefore I'll rubbish what he says"

 

No thanks, I'll stick to my rational views thanks all the same.

 

 

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Came accross this - any good ? see charts on link

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...let?obj=ID26831

 

AstroCycle.net since 2001 - Hedged ETF portfolio is up over 10% YTD

Pg 1 - Minute charts and Elliott Wave

Pg 2 - Hourly charts

Pg 3 - Daily charts

Pg 4 - Volatility

Pg 5 - Precious Metals

Pg 6 - Commodities

Pg 7 - Bonds and Rates

Pg 8 - Currencies

Pg 9 - Other Markets

Pg 10+ - ETF's and Stocks

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is it worth keeping a Tom O'Brien thread going , I dont have time to listen to the daily shows but I sccoted though y/days one , he seemed to noting weaker volume on the recent bounce in S&P , oil indexes etc.

 

 

 

the S&P not confirming the new low on the Vix , the vix/s&p looks like it is running into some resistance down here

 

vixspx.jpg

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DXY is approaching that reversal point shown in the pdf from LP's interview. I'm short EUR/USD but FED minutes could blow a hole in my plans.

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DXY is approaching that reversal point shown in the pdf from LP's interview. I'm short EUR/USD but FED minutes could blow a hole in my plans.

 

 

Yip, looks like we are getting a Gartley "222" buy pattern about to complete

 

post-2824-1242840108_thumb.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

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Let's look at some Fibonacci retracement points

 

Index=== March Low : May High : change / pct.... : 50% ret. : 61.8% ret. : 38.2% ret. : LP Target

Nasdaq.... : 1268.6 - : 1772.9 --- : 503.6 /+39.7% : 1520.4 -- : 1461.0 --- : 1579.8 --- : ??

INDU/dow : 6,443.27 : 8,651.51 -: 2208 / +34.3% : 7547.3 -- : 7286.7 --- : 7807.8 --- : ??

S&P 500.. : 666.79 - : 930.17 --- : 263.4/ +39.5% : 798.49 -- : 767.40 --- : 829.57 --- : ??

QQQ........ : $25.63 - : $35.34 --- : $9.71/ +37.9% : $30.49 -- : $29.34 -- : $31.63 --- : ??

 

Focussing on SPX, there's further to go, to hit key levels:

S&P 500.. : 666.79 - : 930.17 --- : 263.4/ +39.5% : 798.49 -- : 767.40 --- : 829.57 --- : ??

 

The 38.2% retracement is SPX-829.57, that's another 6.0% below Friday's close of 882.88.

 

Updated chart

wwwg.gif

 

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