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Steve Netwriter

Green shoots of recovery or Carrots of Collapse?

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This brief rcovery will not last

 

How long before the mainstream media starts talking about a "Double Dip Recession"?

 

The second "dip" will turn into a Greater Depression, in my view

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http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=1946

 

We are going to start this article with a premise, which is that the bond market and the dollar are much more important to the powers that be in the US than the stockmarket. Two months ago the stockmarket was plumbing new lows and the end of the world was nigh. Now, instead, you walk down Wall St and everything is smelling of roses. Unfortunately, however, there is a massive storm threatening to break that will necessitate the immediate sacrifice of the stockmarket, and especially those mugs who have been taken in by the recovery hype being doled out by the media and have been buying the market in the recent past.

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An eloquent deconstruction of the mainstream's "Green Shoots" theory:

From:

:lol:

 

(WARNING: foul language.)

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An eloquent deconstruction of the mainstream's "Green Shoots" theory:

From:

:lol:

 

(WARNING: foul language.)

 

"All we have done is exchange General Motors (high) wages for Walmart's (low) wages."

 

Hmm. Well maybe that says it all.

In a globalised world, where people could spend all they could borrow against their homes

(thanks to Greenspan's folly of low interest rates and unlimited credit), then how can GM

sustain those high-paying jobs, when foreign companies can build cars so much cheaper?

 

Allowing all that wasteful spending built up Walmart's, while tearing down GM

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http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=1946

 

We are going to start this article with a premise, which is that the bond market and the dollar are much more important to the powers that be in the US than the stockmarket. Two months ago the stockmarket was plumbing new lows and the end of the world was nigh. Now, instead, you walk down Wall St and everything is smelling of roses. Unfortunately, however, there is a massive storm threatening to break that will necessitate the immediate sacrifice of the stockmarket, and especially those mugs who have been taken in by the recovery hype being doled out by the media and have been buying the market in the recent past.

 

+1

 

 

The storm that is threatening to break is the combined collapse of the bond market and the dollar, which are joined at the hip. Late in April the bond market crashed important support and it dropped significantly again late last week. The dollar finally succumbed this past Friday, crashing important support. They both look set to plunge together - a scenario that will require immediate and drastic action to avert. What is the best way to rescue them? - why, to create another vicious cycle of deleveraging of course. The idea is to get the rabbits to flee out of commodities and the stockmarket and into the perceived safety of the Treasury market, just like last year, which will require them to buy dollars with which to buy Treasuries. Elite and well connected traders, who have the advantage of knowing which levers are going to be pulled and when, have made massive profits from the stockmarket ramp of recent weeks, and it is reasonable to assume that they have been reversing position in the recent past, so that they can make another killing shortly when everything goes in the other direction. How will the powers that be pull the rug from under the stockmarket? - by means of an avalanche of short selling and you had better believe that they have plenty of ammo to do it, and as we will shortly see, after the big runup of recent weeks, they have the force of gravity on their side. Once they have run the market into the ditch again they will cover their shorts and reverse position yet again, under cover of doomsday headlines in the press.

 

I am expecting some such thing and have bought cheap US dollars to cover such an event. Though I wonder about the timing. We could see stocks and commodities carry on up for the summer and the dollar continue down for a while [after a small bounce] until the pressure is really put on the dollar.

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