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Mexican Flu / Swine Flu

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I think one of the best summaries is provided by Bloomberg, of all places!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

At least 68 died and more than 1,000 became sick with flu- like symptoms in the Mexico City region in the past month, Jose Cordova, Mexico’s Health Minister, told reporters yesterday. Swine flu was confirmed in 20 of the deaths so far, he said. Of 14 tissue samples tested from Mexico, half were a genetic match with the swine flu reported in eight people in California and Texas, the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention said.

 

The new influenza strain, a conglomeration of genetic fragments from swine, bird and human viruses, is the biggest threat of a large-scale flu pandemic since the emergence of the H5N1 strain that has killed millions of birds and hundreds of people, said William Schaffner, an influenza expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee.

 

It recombined to create something totally new,” David Butler-Jones, Canada’s chief public health minister, told reporters yesterday. “How, when, or where it did that I don’t think we know.

 

“What it will lead to is impossible to predict,” Butler- Jones said. “It is very concerning.”

 

The World Health Organization is using its Strategic Health Operations Center, a war room-type facility at its Geneva headquarters, to coordinate its response, said Gregory Hartl, a spokesman for the agency.

 

Emergency Meeting

 

The United Nations agency will hold an emergency teleconference with 15 international experts at 4 p.m. Geneva time today to decide whether the situation constitutes “a public health event of international concern,” Hartl said in a telephone interview today.

 

If the panel decides it does, WHO Director-General Margaret Chan will immediately convene a separate meeting to discuss whether the agency’s level of pandemic alert needs to be increased. It is currently at level 3, meaning there is no or very limited human-to-human transmission of a potential pandemic virus.

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more... [any epidemiologists on here??]

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html

The majority of these cases have occurred in otherwise healthy young adults. Influenza normally affects the very young and the very old, but these age groups have not been heavily affected in Mexico.

 

Because there are human cases associated with an animal influenza virus, and because of the geographical spread of multiple community outbreaks, plus the somewhat unusual age groups affected, these events are of high concern.

 

The Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses characterized in this outbreak have not been previously detected in pigs or humans. The viruses so far characterized have been sensitive to oseltamivir, but resistant to both amantadine and rimantadine.

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For a long time now, people have been warning that there will be new strains of virus released (deliberatly) to kick the public while they are down.

Just as people start to getting reluctant to listen to their leaders due to recent events, scare them with something new and terrifying that they are unable to defend themselves from, sweet.

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more... [any epidemiologists on here??]

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html

The majority of these cases have occurred in otherwise healthy young adults. Influenza normally affects the very young and the very old, but these age groups have not been heavily affected in Mexico.

 

Because there are human cases associated with an animal influenza virus, and because of the geographical spread of multiple community outbreaks, plus the somewhat unusual age groups affected, these events are of high concern.

 

The Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses characterized in this outbreak have not been previously detected in pigs or humans. The viruses so far characterized have been sensitive to oseltamivir, but resistant to both amantadine and rimantadine.

 

Sounds similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu in that it mostly affected young adults. But don't worry as that one only infected half the worlds population in 2 years and only killed roughly 50 million people. Eeek!

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7 resources for monitoring the outbreak:

http://tedchris.posterous.com/insightful-r...oring-the-swine

 

Seems the BA employee does not have this strain, but my take is:

 

1//

virus seems well adapted as human-to-human transmission occurring with multiple large clusters.

2//

Outbreak unlikely to be contained.

3//

virus does seem to be a killer affecting 18-45 yr olds most.

4//

Unofficial report from mexican health professional the that >200 people died:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.

Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

 

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It's probably hit NZ:

 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...s-3ZhgD97Q257O0

 

10 New Zealand students likely have swine flu

 

By RAY LILLEY – 12 minutes ago

 

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — New Zealand's health minister said Sunday 10 students who just returned from Mexico have tested positive for influenza. He said the cases are "likely" to be swine flu.

 

Tony Ryall said there was "no guarantee" the students had swine flu, but that health officials were taking precautions.

 

At least 81 people have died from severe pneumonia caused by a flu-like illness in Mexico, according to the World Health Organization, which declared the virus a public health emergency of "pandemic potential."

 

Ryall said that none of the patients were seriously ill and seemed to be recovering.

 

Thirteen high school students from a group of 25 students and teachers — who were quarantined and tested for swine influenza upon returning to New Zealand early Saturday.

 

"Ten students have tested positive for Influenza A, and these results will now be sent to the World Health Organization laboratory in Melbourne to ascertain whether it is the H1N1 swine influenza."

 

H1N1 influenza is a subset of influenza A.

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I've been really trying to suppress the conspiracy theorist in me about this, but it is one HELL of a coincidence that Barack Obama met one of the 80-odd deceased a day before he died of flu-like illness...

 

I mean, if you were trying to assasinate Obama, what better than a weapon who doesn't even know he is a weapon (i.e. a carrier of disease)..gawd, I hope I am wrong.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Obama’s Visit

The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu

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Much more chance of being killed in a car crash tomorrow morning on the way to work.... I would worry more about that, if you have to worry about anything at all.

 

PS. I'm still waiting for someone to predict the end of the world again

 

:lol:

 

 

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I've been really trying to suppress the conspiracy theorist in me about this, but it is one HELL of a coincidence that Barack Obama met one of the 80-odd deceased a day before he died of flu-like illness...

 

I mean, if you were trying to assasinate Obama, what better than a weapon who doesn't even know he is a weapon (i.e. a carrier of disease)..gawd, I hope I am wrong.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

To be fair that is a big coincidence. I'd be a bit worried about shaking hands if I were Obama for a while.

 

Also, If there have only been 1000 cases of infection in Mexico, that seems quite a small number to have managed to infect travellers from HK, NZ, CA, US and the UK. Maybe they worked in the airport or maybe there are a lot more infected in Mexico than they know / are letting on to. A larger number of infections could explain the lack of deaths outside Mexico (i.e. the mortality isn't as high at 7%).

Anyone have any idea if the numbers are likely to be accurate?

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just read that in 1918 pandemic flu, mortality rates varied massively by country:

from p67 of:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/PIPGuidance09.pdf

 

Excess mortality data from 1918 – 20 show that population mortality varied more

than 30-fold across countries (Murray CL et al., 2006).

- Variation among countries ranged from a low of 0.20% (Denmark) to a

high of 4.39% (India).

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I went to a Bird Flu conference a couple of years ago arranged by the NHS. All I remember from it...

 

----

 

A flu like pandemic is a question of "when", not "if" it happens.

 

The biggest killer is from secondary bacterial infections which maybe the cause of the millions of deaths of past pandemics hundreds of years ago. Most people get over the initial flu virus. Human antibodies learn about new viruses and will counteract them, and get better as the pandemic progresses.

 

Today we are much better prepared because we have antibiotics which can cure the opportunistic secondary infections. Also most people are better nourished and have a better immune system.

 

Please do not panic and think this like from the film "Outbreak".

 

 

----

 

There is a rumour going around the net that the virus is a biological weapon created by the illuminati to instil fear and control - conspiracy theories don't you just love em'

 

Now is there a way I can buy Roche shares [just in case it's true]

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THE SWINE FLU FIASCO

 

Archie Kalokerinos M.D.

 

In 1976 I was working in the far north of Australia amongst Aborigines. I observed, in one community of only a few hundred people, when they were given the flu vaccine (probably the Victorian strain but this detail does not really matter because nobody outside a few selected individuals really knows what is in any particular batch), six men died suddenly soon afterwards. They were not all 'old’. One was in his early twenties. A few weeks later, in another community I found that individuals with heart or potential heart problems or diabetes were particularly likely to drop dead soon after being given the vaccine.

 

Obviously, there was a problem with some batches of the flu vaccine.

 

A few months later I was in America. President Ford had been told by his health advisers that there was going to be a huge epidemic of ‘swine flu’, that this could kill may thousands and the only way to prevent this catastrophe was to vaccinate the entire population of America – every man woman and child - with a specific vaccine.

 

So the vaccine was manufactured and the biggest vaccination campaign in history was begun. I was concerned because the vaccine could not be properly tested in a short period. None of the recipients would know anything about what they were being injected with and the chances were that many would die suddenly. Furthermore, it was extremely unlikely that an epidemic of swine flu would occur. So I spoke out. At first the newspapers got hold of what I said and headlined, ‘Australian Physician Call It Mass Murder’. Then I appeared on Kathy Crosby’s television program.

 

Watching that was a man in New York who did not like a gentleman named Gambino the Mafia boss. Gambino was about 70 years old and had a history of heart problems. It was a simple matter to get someone to persuade Gambino to have the flu shot and Gambino obliged by dropping dead. The newspapers got it right when they stated, ‘Mafia Flu Jab Conspiracy’.

 

People were dropping dead in the buildings where they received their shots. Others became paralyzed. The whole program ground to a halt.

 

President Ford decided to settle the matter quickly. In front of the whole world, on television, he rolled up his sleeve and ‘had his shot’. I claimed at the time that he was given a ‘dud’ shot and I am certain that this was actually done. Then President Ford invited all the news media men and women who were milling around to line up and have their shots. Only one man volunteered and he happened to be the White House press secretary. All the others refused the invitation.

 

There was not a single case of swine flu. There never was going to be an epidemic of swine flu. How was it that the world’s most powerful man with the world's greatest department of health got it all so wrong? No one really knows the answer but what ever it is it is certainly not clean and tidy.

 

Furthermore, as far as I know I was the only practicing doctor who spoke out against it and warned about almost certain consequences. How was it that a doctor with only basic qualifications and not even the possessor of American citizenship stood out alone? There was at least one researcher, Anthony Morris, who did try to speak out but he was at the time censored and censored very hard.

 

This, therefore, is a classical example of how only one man got it right and everyone else got it wrong. This is an important consideration because, when the subject of vaccines is discussed the fact that the vast bulk of the medical establishment states that something is so it is not, in reality, necessarily so. If the establishment can get something so vast and important as the swine fiu vaccine campaign so wrong then it is logical to reason that they could also get a lot of other things wrong. At least it gives reasons to doubt what the establishment claims to be fact. If doctors and members of the general public considered this fewer errors would be made and fewer individuals would suffer unnecessarily.

 

 

Just a thought....

 

 

http://www.whale.to/vaccines/kalokerinos13.html

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Here in Hong Kong the memory of SARS is very recent. As you enter HK you pass through a machine that indicates people's tempertures on the screen. If you have a fever they will know and take you aside. In the media I have read that health officals are now boarding flights from New York, and LA to check the people before they are allowed to disembark. There are no direct flights from Mexico.

 

This morning the Hang Seng Index is done 2.5%, it usually would have tracked Wall street on Friday but people are taking profits after the rally over the last month (maybe spurred by the swine flu outbreak).

 

There have been reported cases in Canada and the US but these people seem to have a milder version.

 

The archeologist who met Obama and then died the next day. That is a very quick reaction to the virus (or did they allow a sick man to meet the president?). If the virus is so lethal that it can kill in days and not weeks then it is possible that the lethal strain may die out quickly and a milder form makes the global rounds.

 

Time will tell. It is a good thing that the flu peak season is now over.

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Much more chance of being killed in a car crash tomorrow morning on the way to work....

...

 

What is the probability of being killed in a car crash tomorrow morning on the way to work?

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What is the probability of being killed in a car crash tomorrow morning on the way to work?

 

Depends on whether wonga knows where you work or not :lol:

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Sounds like a black swan to me. Cases have been confirmed in the US, Canada and now Europe (Spain). Breaking news - 2 Scottish people returning from Mexico are undergoing tests, showing mild flu symptoms. If this becomes a pandemic, excluding the tourist/travel industry how will it affect the markets?

 

I just heard on the news if it hits the UK, it will spread in 2-6 weeks.

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Guys - this is my area of work. Please pay careful attention...

 

The good news:

- No virus can kill all infected individuals (we are too genetically variable), so this is not the end of humanity

 

The bad news:

- Highly lethal viruses could kill up to ~95% of infected people

- even highly lethal versions of a virus coud spread widely, if its easily passed on person-person

- viruses do not naturally kill preferentially healthy adults over the young, old, and weak (it only happened in 1918 due to the war and people being in the trenches)

- deaths amongst the healthy adult section of society in mexico is a major warning signal that something wierd is going on!

- my guess is that the first version of the virus that spread in mexico and beyond caused mild disease, but it later mutated (in Mexico, where it was abundant) to a far more lethal form that is now killing people

- the hypothesised lethal form is currently killing healthy adults because these are the people mostly out and about, and so first to become infected

- 2000 people are 'infected' in Mexico with 100 deaths (5%): BUT if maybe 10% of the infections are the lethal form then we have a 50% killing rate for that virus!!! (and it will be even higher amongst the young, old, and weak)

 

The above is not scaremongerring - it is an objective analysis of what we know so far. No-one else has suggested any reasonable explanation for the differential death rate in and out of Mexico, nor why only young people are dying there.

 

Remember, this is new hybrid form of the virus - never before seen! New forms of any species always mutate quickly, naturally evolving and exploring all the evolutionary niches in its host population. The previous bird virus didn't do this because it could not transfer between people. But this swine flu virus can, and is doing so rapidly!

 

Be scared. Be very scared. And pray that I'm wrong and that there is some other wierd and wonderful explanation for why the 'same' virus is lethal in Mexico and mild elsewhere.

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Hey, bigt;

in light of your disclosure maybe you could comment on my earlier post that it is possible for different nations to be affected on a dramatically different level as happened in 1918. I hope this is a plausible explanation, but certainly not proven yet:

 

just read that in 1918 pandemic flu, mortality rates varied massively by country:

from p67 of:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/PIPGuidance09.pdf

 

 

Excess mortality data from 1918 – 20 show that population mortality varied more

than 30-fold across countries (Murray CL et al., 2006).

- Variation among countries ranged from a low of 0.20% (Denmark) to a

high of 4.39% (India).

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Be scared. Be very scared. And pray that I'm wrong and that there is some other wierd and wonderful explanation for why the 'same' virus is lethal in Mexico and mild elsewhere.

 

Um, well as Cgnao once said; don't panic, but panic first. So, what's the best way to avoid getting it?

 

I don't know, that obama conspiracy seems bizarre, but the mexicans at work are absolutely convinced it is an American ploy to weaken their economy

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Guys - this is my area of work. Please pay careful attention...

 

The good news:

- No virus can kill all infected individuals (we are too genetically variable), so this is not the end of humanity

 

The bad news:

- Highly lethal viruses could kill up to ~95% of infected people

- even highly lethal versions of a virus coud spread widely, if its easily passed on person-person

- viruses do not naturally kill preferentially healthy adults over the young, old, and weak (it only happened in 1918 due to the war and people being in the trenches)

- deaths amongst the healthy adult section of society in mexico is a major warning signal that something wierd is going on!

- my guess is that the first version of the virus that spread in mexico and beyond caused mild disease, but it later mutated (in Mexico, where it was abundant) to a far more lethal form that is now killing people

- the hypothesised lethal form is currently killing healthy adults because these are the people mostly out and about, and so first to become infected

- 2000 people are 'infected' in Mexico with 100 deaths (5%): BUT if maybe 10% of the infections are the lethal form then we have a 50% killing rate for that virus!!! (and it will be even higher amongst the young, old, and weak)

 

The above is not scaremongerring - it is an objective analysis of what we know so far. No-one else has suggested any reasonable explanation for the differential death rate in and out of Mexico, nor why only young people are dying there.

 

Remember, this is new hybrid form of the virus - never before seen! New forms of any species always mutate quickly, naturally evolving and exploring all the evolutionary niches in its host population. The previous bird virus didn't do this because it could not transfer between people. But this swine flu virus can, and is doing so rapidly!

 

Be scared. Be very scared. And pray that I'm wrong and that there is some other wierd and wonderful explanation for why the 'same' virus is lethal in Mexico and mild elsewhere.

im no expert in this but

 

1918 - healthy individuals - ones with the strongest immune system died - maybe the virus caused the immune system to turn against itself?

 

reason for no deaths outside mexico - maybe there are far more than 2000 infections and the mortality rate is far lower than 5% - hence no deaths so far outside mexico

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