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Stratford etc: Can a hot neighborhood beat the slide?

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Uk Housing: Can a hot neighborhood beat the slide?

More specifically, can Straford hold, if London falls further?

==========================================

 

stratford.jpg

 

I THOUGHT this question deserved a thread of its own... and maybe a poll?

 

I think for the UK housing market I am coming to the conclusion that the effect on house prices will differ between regions

 

Am interested in thoughts if

 

* East London - Olympics 2012, Stratford City (mega Westfield shopping centre next door to Olympic park and soon to come Eurostar station + Crossrail - will counter the otherwise negative forces at work in the property market

 

* How the regions elsewhere in UK may be affected - is it just London & South East thats overpriced?

 

Work continues...

specialreports2edbolymp.jpg

 

TRANSPORT, the key to successful property investing:

http://www.propertyinvesting.net/cgi-scrip...ommand=viewonex

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Don't be confused by the name Stratford

There's Stony Stratford and Water Stratford—not to mention Shakespeare's birthplace Stratford-upon-Avon—in England, and Stratfords in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Ireland and the US. But east London's Stratford is likely to become the most newsworthy when the Olympic Games pitch up here in 2012.

 

yellapilhwidth240height.gif

 

Exotic past uncovered

Channel rail-link excavations have unearthed some bizarre fossils in Stratford—including sharks' teeth, palm trees and oyster shells. Not that surprising when you consider that about 55.5 million years ago Stratford had a sub-tropical climate and was surrounded by warm oceans.

 

specialreports_2edb.Olympic%202012%20map

 

Stratford's always been a busy place...

The new Underground station is just the latest example of the area's key role in industry and travel. Bronze and Iron Age settlers converged on the River Lea in around 2400 BC. In medieval times, Stratford's name meant "where Romans crossed the river".

 

/more: http://www.yell.com/find/DoFindLocations/l...ondon+Stratford

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Property stocks fall as JPMorgan warns of tough times ahead

Peter Stiff

Property stocks weighed heavily on the FTSE 100 this morning after JPMorgan became the latest broker to warn that the sector’s recent good run may have gone too far and too fast.

 

The American investment bank noted that UK commercial property stocks had risen 55 per cent since March on the back of a number of positive signs but that it could soon all end in tears, with stocks now pricing in a recovery but facing several risks on the downside.

 

It believes that rental income, particularly in 2010, will be worse than expected, with rising vacancy rates of 16 per cent in the City and continuing rental declines, perhaps as bad as a 50 per cent fall from peak to trough for London offices. The companies also face problems such as empty rates, tenant defaults and some tough rent renegotiations.

 

Moreover, JPMorgan said that, although nobody seems to care, 44 per cent of the commercial property stocks it covers across Europe still face issues regarding refinancing and covenant breaches, with the danger that the UK commercial investment property market could move into negative equity in the second half of the year.

 

Bunzl down with a bump after revenue alert

British Land fell 27p to 421.5p, Liberty International lost 23.75p to 440.5p and Hammerson dropped 14.25p to 285.5p.

 

British Land (BLND.L) ... update

big.gif

 

Barratt Development (BDEV.L) ... update

bigo.gif

 

(Residential Property/BDEV has signalled a healthy bounce is coming, by breaking above the 252d.MA, but UK commercial/BLND has not done that yet.)

 

Overall, the FTSE 100 fell 40.67 points to 4,052.13, with miners also big fallers because of weaker commodity prices. Eurasian Natural Resources was the biggest faller, down 56.5p to 522.5p and Xstrata was 45p lower at 545p.

 

On the upside, banks continued...

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Stratford? I wouldn't touch it. Not yet.

 

There will be many arguments-to-buy thrown at you during this "Dead Cat bounce".

 

Let the market fall (and high rates!) play themselves out, and then see how things look.

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This kind of thinking is still widespread in the UK property market. IMO there is *still* really major denial out there, with asking prices in all of the "nice" or even generally-OK areas holding up extremely well.

 

I'm not sure what else needs to happen to make people pull their heads out of the sand and start making serious price reductions, but until forced sales become common and all this stupid "my area is different therefore prices haven't dropped since 2007" denial is removed we will continue the standoff, with very few sales actually happening in the nicer areas.

 

As for these so-called "up and coming" areas, anyone buying into that kind of hype at this point in the cycle deserves all they get!

 

 

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I went to Stratford once.

 

Drove there in the car.

 

Came back on the train.

 

The reason it was chosen for the Olympics is because it is so bad! I personally would not risk my safety going there.

 

I think if anywhere is going to hold its value, it will be the nice suburbs that have not had a huge increase in value over the last 4-5 years, such as Roehampton. Having said that I don't think anywhere is immune.

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Uk Housing: Can a hot neighborhood beat the slide?

More specifically, can Straford hold, if London falls further?

 

The short answer is 'no'.

 

This is a very shyte area, thats why it needs regeneration.

 

The housing stock in the area is predominantly old edwardian 2/3 bed terraces and, as the area has been traditionally poor, much of it is in a very poor state.

 

Investing in an area on the basis of a one-off show in 2012 and a few sandwich-bars with aluminum shelves is a dumb idea.

 

A train station is useful, granted, but this is a poor and low-lying area.

There is so much spare land here that they have to build an olympic village and stadium just to fill it.

Lessons from Melbourne and Beijing have not been learned - arent they demolishing some of the Bejing buildings because they cant get anyone to use them?

 

Stratford will be developed on a shoe-string, hyped with billions and will return to its natural state by 2013.

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This kind of thinking is still widespread in the UK property market. IMO there is *still* really major denial out there, with asking prices in all of the "nice" or even generally-OK areas holding up extremely well.

 

I'm not sure what else needs to happen to make people pull their heads out of the sand and start making serious price reductions, but until forced sales become common and all this stupid "my area is different therefore prices haven't dropped since 2007" denial is removed we will continue the standoff, with very few sales actually happening in the nicer areas.

 

As for these so-called "up and coming" areas, anyone buying into that kind of hype at this point in the cycle deserves all they get!

 

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices...&lastyear=1

 

asking price not holding up in Stratford.

 

no point looking at the selling price data cos they aint! :lol:

 

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Investing in an area on the basis of a one-off show in 2012 and a few sandwich-bars with aluminum shelves is a dumb idea.

Agreed, I have been puzzling over why the olympics is a significant selling point at all.

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Investing in an area on the basis of a one-off show in 2012 and a few sandwich-bars with aluminum shelves is a dumb idea.

 

 

Lessons from Melbourne and Beijing have not been learned - arent they demolishing some of the Bejing buildings because they cant get anyone to use them?

 

Stratford will be developed on a shoe-string, hyped with billions and will return to its natural state by 2013.

 

LOL spot on

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I went to Stratford once.

Drove there in the car.

Came back on the train.

Hmm. Was it stolen?

 

"Can a hot neighborhood beat the slide? Stratford?"

The short answer is 'no'.

This is a very shyte area, thats why it needs regeneration.

 

The housing stock in the area is predominantly old edwardian 2/3 bed terraces and, as the area has been traditionally poor, much of it is in a very poor state.

Investing in an area on the basis of a one-off show in 2012 and a few sandwich-bars with aluminum shelves is a dumb idea.

 

A train station is useful, granted, but this is a poor and low-lying area.

There is so much spare land here that they have to build an olympic village and stadium just to fill it.

Lessons from Melbourne and Beijing have not been learned - arent they demolishing some of the Bejing buildings because they cant get anyone to use them?

 

Stratford will be developed on a shoe-string, hyped with billions and will return to its natural state by 2013.

 

That raises an interesting question, I think.

 

Will Stratford depopulate?

Maybe not now, but after the Olympics are over, and those temporary jobs melt away, with Stratford lose people,

and they lose those jobs.

 

And here's another question - and I am not kidding - might London depopulate in the years to come ??

 

I can imagine scenarios where that would happen

 

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I'm not sure what else needs to happen to make people pull their heads out of the sand and start making serious price reductions, but until forced sales become common and all this stupid "my area is different therefore prices haven't dropped since 2007" denial is removed we will continue the standoff, with very few sales actually happening in the nicer areas.

 

As for these so-called "up and coming" areas, anyone buying into that kind of hype at this point in the cycle deserves all they get!

 

Falling rents, followed by an (eventual) jump in interest rates, will "focus minds wonderfully" on the reality.

 

While rates are down an unsustainably low levels, alot of false hopes are being bred.

 

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Hey DrB thanks for starting this thread. I can see I will have to give some thought to this thread.

 

But for starters - the good:

 

http://www.newham.gov.uk/Services/Regenera...ratfordcity.htm

 

Hmm not sure London needs more shopping centres but will certainly help the profile of the local area

 

http://westfield.com/stratfordcity/

 

I would bet that in the current economic climate Westfield will loose money on it however

 

+ If you are visiting Stratford and see impressive buildings rising by the (current) Stratford Regional train station - dont be thinking they are making good progress with the Olympics. Thats Stratford City. Olympic buildings are probably having foundations laid about now.

 

+ Also Stratford has excellent transport links at present - this page deomonstrates the nicer side

http://www.newham.gov.uk/Services/Regenera...sport+Links.htm

 

I can tell you from personal experience

Docklands - Canary Wharf etc is under 10 mins by car (on a good day)

London - Tower Bridge = 20 mins by car - seriously- a very good road (by Central London standards runs pretty much straight from the A13 via the Aspen Way, past Docklands, via Limehouse link through to the Embankment and the west end (30mins)

- not allowing for roadworks :lol:

 

London XL exhibition centre is not far away and I know the local roads to park for free ;)

http://www.excel-london.co.uk/

 

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from a previous post

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry84495

 

In 2000-2001 you could have purchased a 3 bedroom house in Stratford for under £100k that returned £900 - £1000 a month - more if let as rooms

 

If you had purchased in Plaistow/slightly lesser areas you could have potentially brought the purchase cost down to £80k with similar rental income.

 

Property prices round there were going up @ 10-12% PA, rents were/are fairly static.

 

I purchased in that region. Rember at time two teachers (or Junior Doctors or one of each/whatever similar Gov profession) on TV complaining they could not afford to purchase. They were doing a commute that would have been very similar from there. Jubilee line had just been built. - EDIT I FOUND THAT VERY ANNOYING SUCH PEOPLE COULD HAVE EASILY AFFORDED STRATFORD BACK THEN

 

Yield I think was about 12% (EDIT 15% ISH), I know some people who did very well from that. Provided they did not gear up excessively and used rents to pay off some mortgage they should still be ok through this downturn

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Property prices round there were going up @ 10-12% PA, rents were/are fairly static.

 

I purchased in that region. Rember at time two teachers (or Junior Doctors or one of each/whatever similar Gov profession) on TV complaining they could not afford to purchase. They were doing a commute that would have been very similar from there. Jubilee line had just been built. - EDIT I FOUND THAT VERY ANNOYING SUCH PEOPLE COULD HAVE EASILY AFFORDED STRATFORD BACK THEN

 

Yield I think was about 12% (EDIT 15% ISH), I know some people who did very well from that. Provided they did not gear up excessively and used rents to pay off some mortgage they should still be ok through this downturn

 

THAT was a great starting point! (With good yields and rising demand, and rising rents.)

And if you started there, you must have had a great run out of it.

 

But London has already had its good years of growth in high-paying City jobs - with all the attending spin-offs. It's Gone now!

Now we are headed into a time when banking jobs are going to go on contracting - Let's consider what impact that will have

on the "gentrification process" in places like Stratford.

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I went to Stratford once.

 

Drove there in the car.

 

Came back on the train.

 

There used to be a mechant bank in the tower building that was above the shopping centre in the late 80's early 90's, I think that it was Morgan's but I cannot be sure, memory is starting to go, another CRAFT moment :(

 

I went for an interview there and it was the only one that I have ever been to where I was told not to wear a suit because of the problems with the locals. unsurprisingly I didn't take the job.

 

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Not necessarily just an up and coming area. Look how far it has already come since 2000.

 

I think also you need to distinguish between the cost of a traditional Victorian 3 bed semi in Stratford - which will provide excellent value compared to the rest of London and the cost of such a house in the rest of London. Circa £100k to £150k for a nice 3 bedroom back in 2001 and £60K for a 2 bedroom flat back then.

 

On the other hand the newer executive type 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom flats have been sold at prices much closer to those in the rest of London. I know of some Barrats flats which were up at £225k back in 2001. Those buyers lost money for sure. Anyone buying those for rent will have a real nasty experience.

 

And those same 3 bedroom houses are now circa £220 - £260+k

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...es&index=20

 

My thought would be that those houses, provided they are well maintained (and there is a heck of a difference between a good and bad one), have a fair chance of keeping most of their value compared to the rest of London, when you take into account the regional improvements coming.

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Not necessarily just an up and coming area. Look how far it has already come since 2000.

 

What's going to keep it "up and coming", if people are leaving?

...Let's say because it is becoming much cheaper to live in nicer parts of London.

 

Why should people buy there, if Shepherds Bush, Wandsworth, Clapham, or Kensington West are becoming dramatically

more affordable?

 

How many "up-and-coming" areas will survive a harsh recession, and loss of London jobs?

 

If you are going to bet on London, then bet on places that are close to convenient transport, which will take people to good jobs.

 

I think the "new Sheperds Bush" has a much better chnace of working than Stratford. I used to live there, so I am biased.

But i know it is liveable. I am not so sure about Stratford.

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What's going to keep it "up and coming", if people are leaving?

...Let's say because it is becoming much cheaper to live in nicer parts of London.

 

Why should people buy there, if Shepherds Bush, Wandsworth, Clapham, or Kensington West are becoming dramatically

more affordable?

 

How many "up-and-coming" areas will survive a harsh recession, and loss of London jobs?

 

If you are going to bet on London, then bet on places that are close to convenient transport, which will take people to good jobs.

 

I think the "new Sheperds Bush" has a much better chnace of working than Stratford. I used to live there, so I am biased.

But i know it is liveable. I am not so sure about Stratford.

 

Having been born and bred in Kingston, not too far from those SW London areas you mention, I know them well. Given the choice a few years ago I would have purchased around there but I was young, delayed and prices ran away from me. Hence I ended up in Stratford.

 

Its going to be an "interesting" few year

 

* Yes - Stratford has its nicer and not so nice areas -

* Those nice and not so nicer areas can be pretty much compared to parts of Croydon, Cyrstal Palace Shepherds Bush

* London and UK generally have issues with young hoodies (and not so young hoodies) + knife crime

 

* I am not sure its an area I want to bring my kids up in longer term - neither is Croydon, Cyrstal Palace Shepherds Bush. Wandsworth is OK.

 

 

Yes - Stratford is only a few miles from Upton Park and Green Street which is an "interesting" road mixing the (predominantly white supported) West Ham FC at one and and a large Asian community at the othe. Strangely no voilence seems to occur - well none gets reported in the local rag, and I havent seen any myself. Horrendous traffic jams however!

 

 

My real issue is not whether to sell or not to sell - I only have one place of residence My issue is: having recently been boring my other half to death with tails of woe about the economy, she is suggesting we get our house which does not make best use of the downstairs floorplan, having 2 (small ish) receptions and 2 chimney breasts taking up space - that we get those knocked through into 1 nice large room. Her view is we may as well spend the cash now before Gordon Brown does something that will take it from us!It would make a nice improvement.

 

But...... Need I say while we might the builders on the cheap during a recession, this isnt best use of precious capital right now. No idea how much it will cost (£5K ish?) - which would be complete waste in a declining market. No, Id rather wait for house prices to drop to affordable levels Personally Id like to move either back to SW London/Kingston (but unlikely as wife has family around Strarford) - or more likely to a better property in our current area. Failing that I might even consider becoming a buy to letter.

 

So on the basis my future plans are to expand myrather minimal property interests, I am not scared of being long in a potential declining market.

 

Am I being stupid?or is the Mrs right(she usually is but not on fiancial matters!) ?

 

 

 

 

 

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What's going to keep it "up and coming", if people are leaving?

...Let's say because it is becoming much cheaper to live in nicer parts of London.

 

Why should people buy there, if Shepherds Bush, Wandsworth, Clapham, or Kensington West are becoming dramatically

more affordable?

 

How many "up-and-coming" areas will survive a harsh recession, and loss of London jobs?

 

If you are going to bet on London, then bet on places that are close to convenient transport, which will take people to good jobs.

 

I think the "new Sheperds Bush" has a much better chnace of working than Stratford. I used to live there, so I am biased.

But i know it is liveable. I am not so sure about Stratford.

 

I thought you lived in South Ken?

 

As for Shepherds Bush, there are a few nice areas, but they are surrounded by absolute filth. It may be worse now than back when you were living there. But the council estates around there are some of the worse. If I had a family I would not live anywhere near the place.

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Price wise Stratford is still cheaper than most of London. Transport links = excellent - could easily be argued is one of the best locations for transport - rail (especially) / road A13 + city airport. Canary Wharf/Docklands is close by.

 

Liveability is like much of London - you need to choose the specific part of that neighbourhood carefully.

 

IMO a boost compared to other London areas should come from the opening of Stratford City - due to complete 2011/12 - will add something really lacking in Stratford - decent restaurants, considering how over supplied most other areas (good and crappy) of London/UK are - Stratford really stands out.

 

http://www.stratford-renaissance.co.uk/stratford-city

 

 

and Eurostar - due 2012 of course.

 

Not to mention the Olypics.

 

Crossrail will be a benefit but only to those travelling in from further out / or for those travelling into the west end - but of course given cost & UK debt situation, it might not happen or be long delayed.

 

 

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I think the "new Sheperds Bush" has a much better chnace of working than Stratford. I used to live there, so I am biased.

But i know it is liveable. I am not so sure about Stratford.

 

Didn't areas like these become liveable because a lot of the oldhouses were turned into flats/bedsits? Certainly seemed to be the case when I lived in between Hammersmith and the Bush.

 

Practically the only way myself and a few fellow young northern bumpkins could afford to move into reasonable City areas.

 

Will that be the only way Stratford populates, higher density,smaller units for new start owners/renters?

 

Only guessing, but who would live there and why?

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Didn't areas like these become liveable because a lot of the oldhouses were turned into flats/bedsits? Certainly seemed to be the case when I lived in between Hammersmith and the Bush.

Practically the only way myself and a few fellow young northern bumpkins could afford to move into reasonable City areas.

 

Will that be the only way Stratford populates, higher density,smaller units for new start owners/renters?

Only guessing, but who would live there and why?

Watch the sort of gentrification which is happening, especially near the transport nodes.

And watch the new developments that are taking place, and whom they are "meant for".

 

New mixed used development, and especially commercial, if you see it would be a big plus.

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The reason it was chosen for the Olympics is because it is so bad! I personally would not risk my safety going there.

I think if anywhere is going to hold its value, it will be the nice suburbs that have not had a huge increase in value over the last 4-5 years, such as Roehampton. Having said that I don't think anywhere is immune.

What are the transport links like?

If not very good, I will expect a big deterioration if/when oil prices take off again

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