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Big move (down?) on 20th of April 2009

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Looks like this prediction didn't work out in the end.

What prediction?

I dont think you should be rubbishing Larry yet.

I took shorts at/near Friday's high, took some nice profits on Monday,

and then took short positions againn duringb this week.

 

So where are we?

Back near those highs, as we end the week. This week as a non-event, but with some nice]

profit opportunities for Friday shorts.

 

What did you expect? How do you trade?

 

If the market slides next week, I will see some nice profits in my account, and be happy

with what I am seeing and trading

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Just a question -

 

 

Did anything happen in year 2000 in May?

Of course something did happen! This is why astrology always works. ;)

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=arl3VgxA0FAA

Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007 (Update2)

 

By Michael Tsang and Eric Martin

 

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market.

...

“They should know more than outsiders would, so you could take it as a signal that there is something wrong if they’re selling,” said Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC’s wealth management unit, which oversees $110 billion in Philadelphia. “Whether it’s a sustainable rebound is still in question. I’d prefer they were buying.”

The insiders know that this market rally will be over soon.

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What prediction?

What did you expect? How do you trade?

 

Those who expected an instant crash were unrealistic.

The 2007 TURN was a top in financial stocks that has not been exceeded since.

 

Here's what has happened so far:

 

1240668285047062500.gif

 

BTW, the reason, I took profits on Monday was that the downside break left behind a big gap.

And it is normal for gaps to be filled, so why not put some money in the pocket?

 

How did you trade it?

 

I reshorted (ie Bought more short side instruments) later in the week, thinking a further drop may be seen.

 

As far as I am concerned the "jury is still out" on this particular Turn.

 

And anyway, even Larry . says that he does not expect these turn indictors to work more than 70-80% of the time. And if you trade with appropriate discipline, then you can make alot on money with that kind of accuracy.

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From the back testing I have done into Martin Armstrongs dates there are only 3 that I have seen that correlate.

 

1. Series calls a high on 1st October 1929. This is 27 days after the djia peaked.

 

2. Series calls a low on 6th November 2002. This is 32 days after the djia bottomed.

 

3. Series calls a peak on 24th march 07 which times in with peak of financials index. (BKX) (djia peaked in Oct 2007)

 

i have also seen people make the case that the series high on 20th July 1998 coincides with the peak in the asian markets just before the collapse, but I am sure if one looked at all the index's and markets in existance there would be at least one that could be made to tie in with each of the dates.

 

In contrast, perhaps one might have shorted the market on the 8th May 1981 when the series was at its peak and djia was at 791 only to see the djia climb much further during the early 1980's and get to djia 1318 when the series had supposedly bottomed on 25th August 1985?

 

And we know the banks didn't stop falling on the 23rd March last year at the bottom of his last turn date.

 

From the research I have done, the series appears to be a very loose indicator at best.

post-2913-1240674954_thumb.png

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Those who expected an instant crash were unrealistic.

The 2007 TURN was a top in financial stocks that has not been exceeded since.

 

Here's what has happened so far:

 

1240668285047062500.gif

 

BTW, the reason, I took profits on Monday was that the downside break left behind a big gap.

And it is normal for gaps to be filled, so why not put some money in the pocket?

 

How did you trade it?

 

I reshorted (ie Bought more short side instruments) later in the week, thinking a further drop may be seen.

 

As far as I am concerned the "jury is still out" on this particular Turn.

 

And anyway, even Larry . says that he does not expect these turn indictors to work more than 70-80% of the time. And if you trade with appropriate discipline, then you can make alot on money with that kind of accuracy.

 

Totally agree Dr B. Another great post. The rise in the market from Tuesday to Friday has so far taken a nice abc looking pattern (two 5 wave patterns seperated by an x wave) and closed the gap as you point out. This is a larger correction of Monday's falls than one would normally expect if it is just that, a correction. But lets see what happens; it is set up nicely to fall this week if it wants to, so fingers crossed.

 

The european markets made new recovery highs (bar the Dax yet) on Friday, which gives the bounce since early March a better look to it, pattern wise, and so hopefully these are likewise set up nicely to fall this week.

 

Obviously this may not happen, but i think it is worth a small punt because if this is going to happen then any further rises should be very limited, so risk is likewise ltd with such a stance.

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...this may not happen, but i think it is worth a small punt because if this is going to happen then any further rises should be very limited, so risk is likewise ltd with such a stance.

Small position?

The position I put on over a week ago on Friday was not huge, and I took some profits on Monday.

I added back a modestly larger position as that Daily gap got filled mid-week.

 

I will now have to think about whether I go with a still larger position on Monday, near the opening.

It may depend on how the opening looks, and what happens in Hong Kong and the UK before

the opening.

 

I will check prices first, but I may consider longer dated calls on the SDS as a way to play it.

 

Larry Pesavento is talking about a low into May 4- May 18th. If we see that, I will not need

the longer dates. But if I do go for longer dates, I may plan to "trade against" the short

position with some calls, after a drop is in place, and I can lock in a profit.

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Small position?

 

A small position for me. I have been far more risk averse this year as losing any of my travel fund is simply not an option.

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Totally agree Dr B. Another great post. The rise in the market from Tuesday to Friday has so far taken a nice abc looking pattern (two 5 wave patterns seperated by an x wave) and closed the gap as you point out. This is a larger correction of Monday's falls than one would normally expect if it is just that, a correction. But lets see what happens; it is set up nicely to fall this week if it wants to, so fingers crossed.

 

The european markets made new recovery highs (bar the Dax yet) on Friday, which gives the bounce since early March a better look to it, pattern wise, and so hopefully these are likewise set up nicely to fall this week.

 

Obviously this may not happen, but i think it is worth a small punt because if this is going to happen then any further rises should be very limited, so risk is likewise ltd with such a stance.

 

I trade the stock market daily. I have some concerns about your 'covering my arse post' highlighted in bold above :-

 

- The market always falls or rises.... this is why we trade it :lol: What is your definition of a fall?

 

- You say that "Obviously this may not happen"????. But it will; so what is your point here. The markets always fall and rise as I have stated above, this why we trade it!

 

- You also say "IF this is going to happen". Well it is going to happen, just as a rise will happen.

 

I have no idea what you're talking about. Be specific and give us the numbers and swing points for the week in advance, if you want to be taken seriously. Same goes for Bubb. We all know it's very easy to comment on historical charts/data looking back weeks/months/years etc. Tell us what will happen looking forward the next couple of weeks, and provide figures and swing/pivot points we can track and gauge your forecasts by. Thanks.

 

 

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I have no idea what you're talking about. Be specific and give us the numbers and swing points for the week in advance, if you want to be taken seriously. Same goes for Bubb. We all know it's very easy to comment on historical charts/data looking back weeks/months/years etc. Tell us what will happen looking forward the next couple of weeks, and provide figures and swing/pivot points we can track and gauge your forecasts by. Thanks.

Oh dear dear, another new poster comes along trashing others who actually have made significant calls over the years.

 

Perhaps you should read a few of the older threads started by DD and Bubb.

 

Perhaps you should try the following to get you started.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2199

 

Come back when you have, perhaps then you will be able to show a little of the humility demonstrated by DD that you seem to have confused with "covering my arse".

 

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Oh dear dear, another new poster comes along trashing others who actually have made significant calls over the years.

 

Perhaps you should read a few of the older threads started by DD and Bubb.

 

Perhaps you should try the following to get you started.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2199

 

Come back when you have, perhaps then you will be able to show a little of the humility demonstrated by DD that you seem to have confused with "covering my arse".

 

Nothing to do with being a new poster, your point is irrelevant.... in fact, I would say that it provides some form of audit compliance.

 

No, I'm waiting for the forward-looking figures and pivot points for the next 2 weeks in advance. If they're that good, this won't be a problem will it?

 

 

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From the speed of your response it is clear that you have not read the relevant posts I suggested.

 

As such, you have indicated that you are both lazy and not capable of doing you own research, therefore, you are no longer worth replying to.

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This thread has captured my attention. I have been in cash for quite a while now over 1 year but last week I opened some positions one was on Thursday night where I started a short on GBP/NOK and then on Friday I went heavily short on the FTSE100 @ 4070 in the morning. Friday has been painful and I am not sure how much more will come on Monday but I think there is a fairly high possibility that we will see a repeat of September 1st - October 15th 2008 over the course of the next six to eight weeks.

 

That could take the FTSE100 down to around 2000 which is about where I want to see it before I think it is oversold enough for me to start to get excited about buying shares. My view is that I should be able to be excited rather than just tempted because I have had to put up with crazy valuations for too long in almost everything. As a result I have been expecting a further big drop for a while now but I have lacked any conviction one way or the other inaction breeds fear and I don't mind admitting I have been pretty scared about almost everything for almost a year now. I feel a lot better having taken a position on Friday though because even if we do see a further rally next week I am quite convinced the next down leg for the markets will be very soon and that when it happens it will signal a bottom in equities.

 

 

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I trade the stock market daily. I have some concerns about your 'covering my arse post' highlighted in bold above :-

 

- The market always falls or rises.... this is why we trade it :lol: What is your definition of a fall?

 

- You say that "Obviously this may not happen"????. But it will; so what is your point here. The markets always fall and rise as I have stated above, this why we trade it!

 

- You also say "IF this is going to happen". Well it is going to happen, just as a rise will happen.

 

I have no idea what you're talking about. Be specific and give us the numbers and swing points for the week in advance, if you want to be taken seriously. Same goes for Bubb. We all know it's very easy to comment on historical charts/data looking back weeks/months/years etc. Tell us what will happen looking forward the next couple of weeks, and provide figures and swing/pivot points we can track and gauge your forecasts by. Thanks.

 

Am merely saying i agree with Dr B that the odds favour falls this week and it is set up nicely for this and so have put a small punt on this as the risk reward ratio is good in my view. Of course it may not happen, but when the risk reward is in your favour then it is worth taking a punt. That is all i am saying.

 

For me it is not a time to push the pedal to the metal too strongly as bear market corrections (as i believe we are now in) can take rather messy complicated forms compared to the patterns when the bear market is in full swing. Plus, i think this bounce has somewhat further to go, hence why i only want to participate in a small way; so any near term falls would likely just be a short term trading opportunity.

 

If you are after specific swing points and exactly what will happen over the next two weeks then you are in the wrong business.

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From the speed of your response it is clear that you have not read the relevant posts I suggested.

 

As such, you have indicated that you are both lazy and not capable of doing you own research, therefore, you are no longer worth replying to.

My post wasn't even directed at you... get a life (or provide the figures yourself perhaps?).

 

I look forward to those forward-looking figures for the next 2 weeks. We can then all do a complete breakdown in 2 weeks time to determine the accuracy of the forecast.

 

They could view it as a challenge maybe ;)

 

Ta ta for now.

 

 

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I have no idea what you're talking about. Be specific and give us the numbers and swing points for the week in advance, if you want to be taken seriously. Same goes for Bubb. We all know it's very easy to comment on historical charts/data looking back weeks/months/years etc. Tell us what will happen looking forward the next couple of weeks, and provide figures and swing/pivot points we can track and gauge your forecasts by. Thanks.

 

No one has such a crystal ball.

And anyone says that they do is lying.

 

Traders who make money consistently* understand that it is a probability game, and if you win over half the time (and use appropriate risk control) then you are doing well. In other words, you have to trade with an element of caution, and be ready to cut losses when the market runs the other way.

 

DD will understand what I am talking about, and I reckon all experienced traders here will too. If you consistently make money with a different approach then I want to know what you are using. Perhaps I can learn something from you, to include within my own trading program.

 

Am merely saying i agree with Dr B that the odds favour falls this week and it is set up nicely for this and so have put a small punt on this as the risk reward ratio is good in my view. Of course it may not happen, but when the risk reward is in your favour then it is worth taking a punt. That is all i am saying.

 

See, This is exactly what I am saying too: It is a probability game. And you need to trade with that in mind, controlling your potential losses somehow.

 

 

== ==

 

*I have been a consistently profitable trader for most of the last 5 years, and made a decent living doing it.

 

Have a look at my diary, or the short cycles thread, to see how I cope with uncertainty, and market volatility in real time, as the moves happen. My main trading accounts are up about 50% so far this year, so I must be doing something right.

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I trade the stock market daily.

 

Wonga, I am not a day trader. However, like many others, I am here to learn from those far more experienced than myself. Since I'm in the early stages I only trade small. I made some excellent longer term trades on gold and silver over the last year and am now using that capital to trade with. I have made some good calls previously however sometimes I have not executed them correctly. Eg I bought Feb calls in China Telecom on 20th January but at too high a strike price ($40), I got the direction right but the price never made it above $40. I made a great trade on FXE more recently as I believed the dollar index was going from 88 to 82 and I got that call almost bang on (it went to approx 82.5), have a look at;

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=101545

 

I've posted a chart of where I feel SPY may head over the following week, it's nothing more than gut feel though (that and I'm learning about all the features of the platform I use, thinkorswim).

 

Tell us more about yourself Wonga, what do you trade and what methodology do you use to trade? What are your thoughts on the markets in the coming weeks? You mentioned pivot points in your post, have you any yourself for the week ahead and why?

 

PB

 

Gutfeel.png

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That could take the FTSE100 down to around 2000 which is about where I want to see it before I think it is oversold enough for me to start to get excited about buying shares. ...I have been expecting a further big drop for a while now but I have lacked any conviction one way or the other inaction breeds fear and I don't mind admitting I have been pretty scared about almost everything for almost a year now.

 

We may get a big drop like that,

But I think we will need to see a better defined rollover first, before any big down moves start

 

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Larry said in the podcast if the rally continues into July, he will be very bearish for the next few years. "This rally will have set up many people for a fall".

 

Nobody really knows the precise turndates for the precise massive collapses. This is a good thing - I don't believe in destiny and a future that is pre-determined, [that would not allow one to affect ones destiny]. I do not believe humanity could cope with such a revelation. I can live with the idea that dates and numbers are associated with energy levels.

 

 

--

 

I ask about if there was a big financial/economic event in May 2000, because Christeen skinner's book arrived [ http://www.amazon.co.uk/Money-Beginners-Gu...8183&sr=8-2 ] , and she marks a big flag in that time period after flicking through the book. I do not remember any crisis, perhaps she was wrong, which casts some doubt to astrology. Any ideas?

 

She also flags up 2008.

 

Worth buying the book? Hmm more of a mainstream horroscope book. Theres a chapter for each starsign. Some bits true - paraphrase: "Sagittarius will discover money system is a fraud" I found more value in the Youtube video I linked earlier in this thread TBH.

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LARRY PESAVENTO'S ASTRO-CYCLES DID CATCH A MAJOR TURN, but it wasnt in the Stock market

 

The following charts show a clear turn, and very profitable trading opportunity was available. I missed it by focussing on Wall Street stock indicies rather than the credit markets.

 

One Year Daily chart for TBT ... update / ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

aaa2g.gif

 

Two Month's Daily chart for TBT ... update /

bign.gif

 

Note that the TURN came on April 21st, the day after Larry Pesavento's April Turn date !

 

The money to be made here was huge, if you had bought the May $40 calls.

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LARRY PESAVENTO'S ASTRO-CYCLES DID CATCH A MAJOR TURN, but it wasnt in the Stock market

 

The following charts show a clear turn, and very profitable trading opportunity was available. I missed it by focussing on Wall Street stock indicies rather than the credit markets.

 

One Year Daily chart for TBT ... update / ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

aaa2g.gif

 

Two Month's Daily chart for TBT ... update /

bign.gif

 

Note that the TURN came on April 21st, the day after Larry Pesavento's April Turn date !

 

The money to be made here was huge, if you had bought the May $40 calls.

 

Hi Dr Bubb,

Pls excuse my ignorance in this area. Does the above mean we should have been shorting long dated treasuries as the price is now falling following the turn date? As I recall CG tried this some months ago...

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Hi Dr Bubb,

Pls excuse my ignorance in this area. Does the above mean we should have been shorting long dated treasuries as the price is now falling following the turn date? As I recall CG tried this some months ago...

 

Exactly right.

TBT is a double short etf on the US Treasury bonds.

Calls on TBT provide even further gearing. I'm not really set up for futures, so I look for opportunities liek that

 

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Exactly right.

TBT is a double short etf on the US Treasury bonds.

Calls on TBT provide even further gearing. I'm not really set up for futures, so I look for opportunities liek that

 

 

What levels and over what time frame do you see TBT going to?

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I'm thinking we may see a pull back in TBT if we get a stock market correction next week although maybe the money will move into commodities. I don't expect to see it go into PM's because of the deflation situation. If the correction occurs and we don't see the long bond rise I expect that will signal that QE and excessive government borrowing has spooked the market into a long term bear.

 

Any views on that?

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What levels and over what time frame do you see TBT going to?

 

The "easy money" on this trade may have been made already.

I will await a pullback. As a rule, I tend to buy in the money calls

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