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The Oil and Energy Price Thread

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http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...ors.aspx?page=1

Jubak's Journal7/20/2007 12:01 AM ET

No help for gas buyers -- or oil investors

Rising oil prices and increased refinery costs mean gas prices will keep going up. Yet record profits mean little to investors, since companies don't have a good place to reinvest the cash.

iteresting article on the oil industry; recommends FTO

makes the point that alot of big oil co's are like annuities

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(from Advfn's Really Useful OIL thread):

 

briarberry - 21 Aug'07 - 15:57 - 239:

Hurricane Dean - almost direct hit on Cantarell oil complex - although it's slowed to Cat2

 

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/images/cantarell.jpg

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?3day#contents

 

ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/211443.shtml

 

briarberry - 21 Aug'07 - 16:48 - 240:

Pemex said it was evacuating more than 14,000 workers and shutting in 407 wells that produce 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas on a daily basis, the New York Times reported.

 

energyi - 21 Aug'07 - 19:03 - 241:

Zapata George has revised his Oil forecast from $84 to $110/120

Natgas to $16

 

http://www.ZapataGeorge.com

 

:: OIL thread : http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=10522648

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So, is oil due a correction? BP announce today a "dreadful" 3rd quarter and now according to Saudi Arabia's oil minister, "The market is in turmoil, let's leave it at that''.

 

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $79 a barrel in New York as production resumed after a storm passed through the Gulf of Mexico and Saudi Arabia's oil minister said energy markets are ``in turmoil.''

 

``The market is in turmoil, let's leave it at that,'' the minister, Ali al-Naimi, said today in an interview in New York. He wouldn't comment further.

 

Crude oil fell as low as $78.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today as output increased in the Gulf. Prices shot to a record after an OPEC decision last week raised concern that supplies would be insufficient to meet demand during the Northern Hemisphere's winter.

 

``To a certain extent, Al-Naimi's right, the market has got completely confused with the financial aspects, the banking in collapse,'' said Rob Laughlin, a senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``He's just saying the recent spike up is overdone, and they're looking for an understandable correction.''

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

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oilcyclecompkn6.jpg

See, my old 1991 article:"Cycling Towards Low Oil Prices" : pg.1 : pg.2 : pg.3

The article suggested cycles of: 2.4 years, 8.3 years, and 30 years

This projects an Oil Peak in 1980 +30 years = 2010, could that be $200+?

 

(I'm looking to update these cycles):

 

The article suggested cycles of: 2.4 years, 8.3 years, and 30 years

This projects an coming 30-year peak in 1980 +30 years = 2010, the same year as an 8-yr. Low?

 

30 year cycle lows:

a. 1931 & 1933 : say, 1932

b. 1962 ??

c. 1992 ?/ article said: 1993-95

 

If the low was 1962, not much happened until about 10 years later.

 

nl_307_07chart.gif

 

Long sideways movement: 1957 to 1970

8.3 year Lows, per article estimates:

1960-1, 1969, 1977, 1986, 1994, 2002-3, 2010? (competes with the 30 year cycle high!)

 

The article projected an important low in 1993-95. (more detail from article?)

Actual low came a few years later , near the end of 1998

 

BrentCrude1988to2006.gif

 

...so 8.3 years later would be, early 2007, and guess what we saw:

 

wtic2007hl2.png

 

So may there is something in these cycles after all!

 

The 2.3?? year cycle is more difficult to track...

And I will be looking into it'seffectiveness further in subsequent posts.

 

But those longer cycles would now suggest;

 

+ A Big Peak about 2010, and

+ An 8.3 year cycle around April 2015

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My Longer term target is ... $400 oil by 2012/3.

 

Look at this chart, multiply by 10

 

30yroilpw8.jpg

 

$13 oil : $130 oil now

$40 oil : $400 oil within 3-5 years, maybe much sooner

 

(added to header)

 

I heard a podcast with Harry Dent Jr.

And he spoke about a "29-30 year cycle" and a possible oil peak in 2009-2010.

No specific level was mentioned. other than "much higher."

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Billionaire investor George Soros is to tell US lawmakers on Tuesday that “a bubble in the making” is under way in oil and other commodities and that commodity indices are not a legitimate asset class for institutional investors.

 

He is expected to tell a congressional committee that rising oil prices are the result of a number of fundamental changes and factors in the market, but that the relatively recent ability of investment institutions to invest in the futures market through index funds is exaggerating price rises and creating an oil market bubble.

 

I find commodity index buying eerily reminiscent of a similar craze for portfolio insurance which led to the stock market crash of 1987,” Mr Soros will tell the Senate commerce committee, according to a draft text seen by the Financial Times.

 

“In both cases, the institutions are piling in on one side of the market and they have sufficient weight to unbalance it. If the trend were reversed and the institutions as a group headed for the exit as they did in 1987 there would be a crash.”

 

MORE

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Billionaire investor George Soros is to tell US lawmakers on Tuesday that “a bubble in the making” is under way in oil and other commodities and that commodity indices are not a legitimate asset class for institutional investors.

He's not the only one.

 

Oil, Commodity Demand to Drop as Expansion Slows, Faber Says

 

By Millie Munshi and Monica Bertran

 

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Demand for industrial commodities including oil will fall, pressuring prices, because the financial sector is in ``disarray'' and the economy will continue to slump, investor Marc Faber said.

 

``The industrial-commodity complex is vulnerable because demand will slow down,'' said Faber, publisher of investment newsletter the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. ``The economy is weakening, corporate profits will disappoint, valuations are not particularly attractive, and the financial sector that serves to channel savings into investment is in disarray.''

 

Demand for commodities will fall after raw materials including oil, corn, copper and gold touched record highs in the first half, Faber said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. The global economic slowdown will last a ``very long time,'' he said.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

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How do you measure Opec’s crude oil supply amid secrecy and dishonesty?

 

http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/05/...erber-has-died/

 

Conrad Gerber, who died on April 25, responded to that question for almost 30 years, providing the oil market with a glimpse of clarity from his Geneva-based Petro-Logistics company.

 

He made a living from a peculiar characteristic of the oil market: the most reliable data for Opec monthly supply comes not from the cartel member’s energy ministries, but from so-called secondary sources - a network of spies watching, binoculars in hand, the movement of tankers in and out of the world’s ports.

 

Opec’s members do no trust each other supply numbers, so even themselves used Petro-Logistics data, among others. The confusion and distrust about production is so deep that Opec members in the past regularly request data about fellow members’ production from the International Energy Agency. This is ironic because the IEA, created after the 1970s oil shocks as the western countries’ oil watchdog, is basically to Opec what Nato was to the Warsaw Pact.

 

-------------------------------------

His last chat to ft is here

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/840a7d02-bcec-11...00779fd18c.html

 

Venezuela is so unsure about how much it pumps that from time to time the central bank calls the oil ministry to correct the numbers because there are too few dollars in the vaults to support their inflated oilproduction claims, industry insiders say.

 

You have to laugh at Ven!

 

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OK this will probably make more sense to traders

 

Daniel O'Sullivan happened to call the oil market correctly as I noticed in other articles not

 

just this one - he also writes for investors chronicle. At times he talks a lot of sense.

 

Latest article

 

http://www.cityam.com/markets-and-investme...-the-great-oil-

 

bubble-2008 - 10 DEC 2009

 

http://www.harriman-house.com/pages/book.htm?BookCode=403165

- a review of his book on the subject and link to youtube vid

 

 

Daniel O'Sullivan latest view on gold

 

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Market.../72b99932-e4c5-

 

11de-ae62-00144f2af8e8/Wheels-come-off-the-golden-wagon.jsp

 

Daniel O'Sullivan on option trading affecting gold

 

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Market.../e50f8588-ced5-

 

11de-9040-00144f2af8e8/Gold-options-may-signal-bubble.jsp

 

So could the price of gold be flying around according the the speculative interest? IMO I guess nothing is certain and when you take account of the relatively small size of the gold market then it is very possible/likely. After ignoring Mr JSMineset for the last few years I get the impression that he thinks the same thing but is retaining his long term bullish stance - which is not a million miles from Dr B!

 

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Just when you thought it was safe to start the car again, gasoline prices are once again heading higher. The average price of gasoline in the United States is around $3.31 a gallon. Obviously, states such as California, Hawaii, New York, and Connecticut are higher due to taxes and environmental regulations. Either way, cheap gasoline at the pump seems to be over for now.

Higher gasoline prices act as a direct tax on the U.S. consumer. Light sweet crude, which is the type of oil that we use in the United States is now trading back over $101.00 a barrel. The winter season in the United States has been exceptionally cold this winter. Cold weather and higher gasoline prices are a one-two punch to the U.S. consumer. After all, it is the U.S. consumer that accounts for 70.0 percent of the GDP (gross domestic product) in the United States. While the U.S. consumer has been resilient for the most part higher energy prices are certainly going to take its toll on their spending habits.

Traders and investors that want to track the price of gasoline should follow the U.S. Gasoline Fund (NYSEARCA:UGA). Recently, the UGA has surged higher by $4.00 since February 3rd, 2014. Today, the UGA is trading around $59.70 a share. There should be near term daily chart resistance around the $61.40 area, so further upside cannot be ruled out. Some other energy ETF's that traders and investors may want to follow include United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), United States Natural Gas (NYSEARCA:UNG), and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR Index ETN (OIL).

Nicholas Santiago


uga%202.12.14.jpg

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