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The Oil and Energy Price Thread

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(from the "Restructuring America's Dream" thread ):

 

US oil prices fell from a 1920 peak of $3.07 per barrel to a double bottom in 1931 and 1933

of 65-67 cents // source: Petroleum Economist article, April 1991.

 

The US was a creditor nation then. And the depression was a "deflationary depression",

where oil prices collapsed rather than skyrocketing. It was cheap to run that old truck.

But no one had much money.

 

Now people have money, but energy prices are shooting up

 

Oil Price charts

1.a/

30yroilpw8.jpg.oilcycle13pq9dj2.jpg

.b

oilcyclecompkn6.jpg

See, my old 1991 article:"Cycling Towards Low Oil Prices" : pg.1 : pg.2 : pg.3

The article suggested cycles of: 2.4 years, 8.3 years, and 30 years

This projects an Oil Peak in 1980 +30 years = 2010, could that be $200+?

 

2/

crude.jpg

3/

BrentCrude1988to2006.gif

4/

WTI Crude, per Stockcharts ... update

wtic2007hl2.png

 

Gold vs.Oil/

040502_b.gif

 

OIL CHART LINKS

 

Dec.2006 (X or Z)

Barcharts ........... : http://www2.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CLZ6

Ino .................... : http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.X06

Access Trading..... : http://www.accesstrading.com/charts.php (use: CLX2006 )

TFC/TradingCharts : http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO

China Energy News : http://www.zoomchina.com.cn/

 

Quotes/Options etc : http://www.bohlish.com/#FUTURES

 

= =

Bullish News for Oil - all around: New Highs being made... $75.89 !!

========

 

Oil Rises to Record in New York, London on Attacks in Nigeria

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record in New York and London after a report that militants attacked pipelines in Nigeria this week, heightening concern Africa's largest oil producer faces further delays restoring lost output.

. . .

``The hot spots are flaring up yet again,'' said Anthony Nunan, the deputy general manager for petroleum business at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. ``A political truce in Nigeria is breaking down and the tensions in the Middle East are heating up, and demand for gasoline in the U.S. at $3 a gallon is still holding up very well.''

 

Record Highs

 

Crude oil August delivery rose as much as 94 cents, or 1.3 percent, to a record $75.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $75.59 at 8:55 a.m. London time. Brent crude oil rose to a record $75.45 a barrel, or 1.4 percent, on London's ICE Futures Exchange. It recently traded at $75.21.

 

...MORE: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...wnUs&refer=

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WTIC closed at $76.70 today. Middle East boiling again.

 

 

Can't see Iran doing that nuclear deal with Israel's forces on the march.

 

Rockets hit Israeli city of Haifa.

 

The Israeli ambassador in Washington, Danny Ayalon, described the Haifa incident as a "major escalation" of the crisis.

 

He said the international community should make it clear to Iran and Syria - who both have links with Hezbollah - that they were "playing with fire".

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5178058.stm

 

You have to read between the lines of much of what is said that comes out of the Middle East. State's like Iran openly say they would like to see Israel wiped off the face of the earth, Israel responds in kind. Sometimes actions are taken to provoke or scupper certain plans. Was the Israeli action of the last week or so taken in part to stop any US/Iran backroom deal? They were provoked, but they don't always respond in such a heavy handed way. Israel would like Iran dealt with - one way or another. They have already made it clear that if Iran looks like it is getting close to having the bomb, Israel will strike first.

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hmmm ......... depends on how quickly the russianns deliveri on the anti aircraft contract; once delivered and installed etc they will only be vulnerable to stealth bombers and only the us has these!

 

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2006/01/russia-is-key.html

 

"..............What has to be asked, therefore, is what makes the difference – what makes the likelihood of an Israeli strike imminent? The answer, of course, is makes the difference the forthcoming delivery by Russia of the SA-15 Gauntlet anti-aircraft missiles, the sales of which it has been negotiating since 2001, and right through the EU3 diplomatic initiative.

...................."

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hmmm ......... depends on how quickly the russianns deliveri on the anti aircraft contract; once delivered and installed etc they will only be vulnerable to stealth bombers and only the us has these!

 

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2006/01/russia-is-key.html

 

"..............What has to be asked, therefore, is what makes the difference – what makes the likelihood of an Israeli strike imminent? The answer, of course, is makes the difference the forthcoming delivery by Russia of the SA-15 Gauntlet anti-aircraft missiles, the sales of which it has been negotiating since 2001, and right through the EU3 diplomatic initiative.

...................."

 

 

And even the stealth is not a sure thing. One was brought down in the action over Serbia a few years ago. The Serbs reportedly gave what was left of it to the Russians.

 

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9903/28/downed.plane.03/

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-10...POE=click-refer

 

If these anti-aircraft missiles are delivered and start being deployed around the nuclear facilities, then you might get fireworks. Israel of course, is the only known WMD state in the region.

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"It seems that oil is destined to hit $80 before the end of July and maybe even higher should tensions erupt abruptly," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Resources Trader, a newsletter published by MarketWatch.

 

"The U.N. will have a full slate of activity trying to negotiate all of the hot spots on the planet right now," he said.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...ers&siteid=

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Brent Crude futures have formed a beautiful parabolic rise this week - from $73 all the way to $78 !! The technical case for going short now must be pretty strong, but with "a bull market in death" (as the Daily Reckoning puts it) in full swing, I don't have the nerve... does anyone else?!!

 

If oil stays around this level or above for the rest of the summer, can we safely assume that we'll not be seeing new highs in US stocks any time this year? I feel we're more likely to see a re-test of last October's lows, if not worse.

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I've been telling ya this for months but no one listens to my folksy little opinions.

 

Dont be naive, people.

This is not a regional flare-up

 

China is making the moves here.

They are testing our reflexes at every opportunity.

Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela....its all China and its all about securing resources.

 

Oil is NOT coming down.

Get yer heads around that.

Rather than squinting over charts trying to make a buck off someone elses labour, I'd suggest you look around at how you can function without oil.

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I've been telling ya this for months but no one listens to my folksy little opinions.

 

Dont be naive, people.

This is not a regional flare-up

 

China is making the moves here.

They are testing our reflexes at every opportunity.

Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela....its all China and its all about securing resources.

 

Oil is NOT coming down.

Get yer heads around that.

Rather than squinting over charts trying to make a buck off someone elses labour, I'd suggest you look around at how you can function without oil.

...or more precisely, how can you function in a world with $100+ barrel oil.

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Well, maybe I'm just talking my position here as I'm currently short on crude, but it's my observation that when something hits headline news it is normally a pretty good sign that we've reached or are very near to a short term peak.

 

The technical case for a correction in crude oil is getting stronger and stronger. RSI has just entered the 70+ zone, from which it has always corrected.

 

This week was MAJORLY bullish for crude. We had Iran, Palestine, Korea all flaring up, and midweek crude inventories were way down on expectations.

 

War or no war, prices will not go up in a straight line. I heard the same arguements by the Gold bulls when gold was $700+.

 

We'll may see $100 oil eventually and even higher, but $65 first.

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"how can you function in a world with $100+ barrel oil.?"

 

I think it is going to $200.

But not by going straight up, and not immediately.

 

The BIG RISE in the dollar price, may well come within a few months if-and-when the Dollar goes into freefall. So that chart on the Dollar thread, showing a seasonal tendency for the dollar br weak after August is very interesting

 

SOME CHARTS for the Header maybe:

 

Dec.2006 WTI, last Two Years ... update

wti808tr.gif : Shows BREAKOUT above $76

 

Closer-up: Crude Oil etf (USO) ... update : 10.day

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Well, maybe I'm just talking my position here as I'm currently short on crude, but it's my observation that when something hits headline news it is normally a pretty good sign that we've reached or are very near to a short term peak.

You're a brave man shorting crude going into hurricane season.

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I've been telling ya this for months but no one listens to my folksy little opinions.

 

Dont be naive, people.

This is not a regional flare-up

 

China is making the moves here.

They are testing our reflexes at every opportunity.

Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela....its all China and its all about securing resources.

 

Oil is NOT coming down.

Get yer heads around that.

Rather than squinting over charts trying to make a buck off someone elses labour, I'd suggest you look around at how you can function without oil.

 

 

Don't think anyone's being naive. No one on here is talking about $30 oil and China has been covered over and over again. How everyone will function, or not, with $100, $200 or $300 oil will ultimately be the big question. China will not get it all, let's be clear on that and if they did monopolise it, then it will be they who dictate the price (and it won't be any of the figures mentioned above). There needs to be this continued competition for this resource and that alongside the peak oil question will be the determining factor.

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As I have said before...

The World will be a better place If and When the USA discovers a new mission...

 

As a Country to be the Leader of Innovation in Alternative Energy.

 

To get there, we may need to see:

 

+ $200 Oil,

+ More failures in US political leadership,

+ A clear peak in Oil resources vs. Production,

+ A more widespread realisation that the current mission as "the world's policeman and consumer of last resort" is thankless, and will eventually bankrupt the USA

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with the sudden shift of focus back on oil, is it likely that New/Green energy stocks may become more attractive (move to buy levels) ?

 

My inexperienced train of thought says, YES in the short term - but they may suffer if the bear market follows through

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Possibly, YES.

 

See the thread about the coming BUY on Alt-E stocks in the Main Forum

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But what does all this mean for the average person right now? The US consumer might be horrified at the thought of $4 a gallon, but here in the UK, we are facing £5 a gallon. What wll be the consequencies of that?

 

"Analysts said the political risk factors that dictate oil prices are 'out of control', pointing to even higher prices to come.

 

The crisis coincided with the average price of petrol in the UK hitting a record high of 96.85p a litre, or £4.40 a gallon.

 

and

 

Yesterday's petrol price beat by a fraction the previous record of 96.81p a litre reached on May 11.

 

It means UK drivers are spending £6.14million more on petrol each day than they did at the start of the year - with the average two-car owning family paying an extra £19.38 on petrol per month.

 

The price of diesel remains below the record high of 99.19p a litre reached on May 4, and currently stands at 98.74p."

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....mp;in_page_id=2

 

It's a good job there is no inflation then, otherwise people might start getting a little unhappy.

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I know how y'all love some sources so here ya go -

 

"A Chinese intelligence officer is engaged in covertly aiding the ruling Palestinian Hamas terrorist group, according to a Paris-based intelligence newsletter picked up by the Washington Post’s Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough on June 19.

 

They identify Gong Xiaosheng as a Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) official who has worked out of Ramallah since Nov. 2002, first with Yasser Arafat and latterly helping Hamas.

 

It was Gong who arrianged for Mahmoud al-Zahar to be invited to Beijing shortly after his appointment as Hamas foreign minister.

 

The report says Gong is a strategic agent “trained in Division 8 of the ministry and also at the China Institution of Contemporary Relatons (CICIR), an MSS think tank. Its Middle East section is headed by Jin Ruikun, a specialist in Palestine and Jordan, and Chen Shuanqing, a specialist on Israeli-Palestinian relations and Israel’s Likud party.

 

...intelligence sources add: The Chinese “strategic agent” was so close to Yasser Arafat that he was among the handful of aides and terrorist chiefs confined with him in two rooms of of the residential apartment of the Palestinian leader’s Ramallah headquarters when it was stormed and besieged by Israeli forces in April and May 2002.

 

After his death, Gong moved over to Hamas. As far back as 2004, the Chinese MSS pegged the Islamist terrorist group as an up-and-coming force heading for Palestinian rule. The American CIA and Israeli Mossad were far slower in assessing Hamas’ rise to power - even on the eve of the Palestinian election in January, 2006. Our Palestinian experts were alone in predicting the Hamas win.

 

Our sources disclose that the Chinese intelligence officer is very close to Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniya, a-Zahar and Muhammed Jaabari, chief of the Hamas armed wing, Ezz e-Din al-Qassam. They habitually consult him for advice. Hamas’s actions and decisions are there not merely influenced by its relations with fellow Palestinian groups, Iran, Syria and other parts of the Muslim world. The Hamas-Gaza, Beijing connection is no less influential. "

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No real surprise there. I'd be more surprised if the Chinese were not doing this. This is the shady, largely un-reported world, which often only comes out later in expose books or now on the web. China are doing it now, Russia and Cuba 20 years ago. One way or another, they are all playing this game, whether it's the US backing Bin Laden when he was knocking seven bells out of the Russians in Afghanistan in the 80's, or the Chinese sending their agents out across the world now. Power politics, buying influence, propping up tin pot dictators, supporting terrorists (or freedom fighters when they are your guys), war by proxy, etc, etc, nothing new in it.

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The FTSE had a good day, the Dow is having a good day, but oil is creeping up again, $75 a barrel on news that Condi Rice was out visiting in the Middle East and that a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is "unenforceable."

 

But how about this. A fire? Or Venezuela putting the squeeze on the US?

 

Oil also gained after traders said a crude distillation unit at Venezuela's Amuay refinery will be shut for five to seven months following a fire.

 

The plant is part of the giant 940,000 barrel per day (bpd) Amuay-Cardon complex, the world's biggest refining complex and a top supplier of U.S. gasoline imports.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/24/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

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The US has had a trade embargo with Cuba in place since 1961, but could this be about to change? Cuba has a big oil find which is attracting interest from a number of countries, some of which, China and Venezuala, the US might not want having that close to it's back door. The need for resources may dictate that the US re-think it's policy towards Cuba. However, the other question has to be, will Cuba be interested?

 

http://www.forbes.com/infoimaging/feeds/ap.../ap2913365.html

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