drbubb Posted February 18, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 I agree. Bought into OIH today. Not sure if I've jumped the gun a bit on this one though... I wouldnt advise jumping in all at once, but shifting in over the next 2-3 weeks may prove profitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
savetheclaypigeon Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 I wouldnt advise jumping in all at once, but shifting in over the next 2-3 weeks may prove profitable Not to worry! I'm a cautious soul and only "dipped a financial toe" at this stage. But Gold must be due a pullback fairly soon, and I aim to make more moves in this vein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupercal Posted February 19, 2009 Report Share Posted February 19, 2009 I agree. Bought into OIH today. Not sure if I've jumped the gun a bit on this one though... Looks good http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commoditi...ergyprices.html PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME NYMEX CRUDE FUTURE 39.02 4.40 12.71 16:58 DATED BRENT SPOT 41.30 2.22 5.68 17:21 WTI CUSHING SPOT 39.48 4.86 14.04 16:21 Do you think this increase related to the EFTs rolling over into the next month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted February 19, 2009 Report Share Posted February 19, 2009 Looks good http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commoditi...ergyprices.html PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME NYMEX CRUDE FUTURE 39.02 4.40 12.71 16:58 DATED BRENT SPOT 41.30 2.22 5.68 17:21 WTI CUSHING SPOT 39.48 4.86 14.04 16:21 Do you think this increase related to the EFTs rolling over into the next month? hmmm, hope so. I remember watching crud.l fall on Monday morning after watching the nymex price rise sharply late Friday in US trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 20, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2009 PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME NYMEX CRUDE FUTURE 39.02 4.40 12.71 16:58 DATED BRENT SPOT 41.30 2.22 5.68 17:21 WTI CUSHING SPOT 39.48 4.86 14.04 16:21 Do you think this increase related to the EFTs rolling over into the next month? I DO. And I think it is irresponsible the way that these moves are recorded. It would be a simple matter to create a "continuous" oil price, taking the first and second contract, and adjusting prices accordind to the number of trading days left (I could explain this in more detail.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupercal Posted February 20, 2009 Report Share Posted February 20, 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120745-pay...l-price-and-etf I think this poster explains how EFT pricings work . If not could someone correct it me please The common explanation was that the Bloomberg chart plots closing prices and therefore you could have a significant difference if the futures market moved strongly after the market where USO is quoted has closed. The difference is not really there and you can't make money with it. Contango cannot explain a price spike but rather has an impact over the long term when futures prices converge toward spot prices. When the fund rolls the futures, say if the front barrel quotes 40 USD and the back barrel quotes 45 USD, the fund sells 1 front barrel for 40 USD and with the money buys 0.89 back barrel at 45 USD... The fund had 40 USD at the beginning of the day and you still has 40 USD at the end of the day, but you hold less barrels. Otherwise it would need investors to add money to the fund each time the contracts are rolled This is relevant for differences which are not explained by the simplest reason of all which happens one every month, i.e. the change in the generic oil contract used to build the oil curve. .. if of course contango explains a significant portion of the ETF returns over time (as well as backwardation, so it's not always bad), the underlying futures in the structure are generally fully collateralized (to avoid margin calls for the ETF) so that on top of that you earn an interest rate, either LIBOR or the T-bill rate. The total return of such product can be decomposed into three components: 1) spot return 2) roll return (i.e., going from owning 1 to either 0.9 or 1.1 barrel) 3) interest rate on the collateral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupercal Posted February 20, 2009 Report Share Posted February 20, 2009 Why oil could go lower http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/red-hot-e...hould-go-lower/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 There's alot of Oil in the CRB Index The CRB Index has risen a fair amount since that chart ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted February 23, 2009 Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 Hi Dr Bubb, Could you interpret your last post for us please? Thanks Wanderer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted February 23, 2009 Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 Hi Dr Bubb, Could you interpret your last post for us please? Thanks Wanderer Especially the two 'kisses' at the bottom... Edit: That have now mysteriously vanished! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 Could you interpret your last post for us please? Thanks, Wanderer Sure Friday, April 07, 2006 Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index review The “RJ/CRB” is an Index of 19 commodity futures prices, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index was originally developed in 1957, continues to be one of the most often cited indicators of overall commodity prices. Index Components (alphabetical order) : ============= 1. Aluminum (6%) 2. Cocoa (5%) 3. Coffee (5%) 4. Copper (6%) 5. Corn (6%) 6. Cotton (5%) 7. Crude oil (23%) 8. Gold (6%) 9. Heating oil (5%) 10. Lean Hogs (1%) 11.Live cattle (6%) 12. Natural Gas (6%) 13. Nickel (1%) 14. Orange juice (1%) 15. Silver (1%) 16. Soy beans (6%) 17. Sugar (5%) 18. Unleaded Gas (5%) 19. Wheat (1%) The New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) began trading the CRB in 1986; the name of the index changed to the Reuters CRB Index in 2001. Now again renamed and sponsored as the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index.. The NYBOT also offers futures and options contracts on the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) , representing the ninth revision (as of 1995) of the original Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index. The CCI Index consists of 17 commodity futures prices. /see: http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/04/comm...-crb-index.html Energy: Crude (23%), H.Oil (5%), N.Gas (6%), Unl.Gasoline (5%)= Add to 39% And Sugar (5%) also now correlates well with oil, making 44% RATIO: WTI-to-CRB back to the 20% range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 Especially the two 'kisses' at the bottom... Edit: That have now mysteriously vanished! OJ, It takes time to produce the charts, I use "xx" as a place-holder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted February 23, 2009 Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 OJ, It takes time to produce the charts, I use "xx" as a place-holder You're a very serious chap, DrB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 You're a very serious chap, DrB... you never know who reads these things, and what ideas they may have, OJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2009 OIL VIEW Short term : A pullback from WTI-$73, to WTI-$60 or lower Medium term : I think it will stabilise around current levels ($50-$80) before heading higher when the Dollar slides. The dollar is in a temporary uptrend now, and I think that may bring a dip in Oil This chart may show my point better: Focus on that yearly average WTI price. It was rising for most of 2008, and has been falling for the whole of 2009. This should be the main single input into year-on-year inflation, and based on that WTI 52 week average, the pressure on yoy inflation from Oil has to push it down. But that is likely to change soon. Buy WTI has now rallied back to the 52 week MA. And if it simply stays at the current level, the downwards pressure from WTI will ease, and a few months later, the yoy comparison will show upwards pressure from oil. This is inevitable, SO LONG AS oil does not collapse back towards its lows. I think the days of low inflation are numbered, unless wages begin to get negotiated lower Here's WTI Crude-in-Sterling which is already above the 52 week MA, ... at Pds.45 and and putting upwards pressure on YOY inflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2009 I AM SHORT CRUDE - by holding Puts on USO, the etf for WTI crude. For all the reasons enumerated in my article for Financial Sense. ( "Buying Oil - Be Careful with the Oil ETFs" ) I expect to see USO be weaker than WTI Crude in the months to come. Here's a look at the charts USO - etf for WTI crude ... update OIH - etf for Oil service stocks ... update : USO-to-WTI Crude Ratio ...................................................... : USO-to-OIH Ratio ...................................................... : ... USO vs. OIH ... update Nice move down in USO and Crude yesterday /Monday: USO : $36.25 -1.72 / Pct Chg: -4.53% WTI : $67.50 -2.52 / Pct chg: -3.60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 23, 2009 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2009 GEI's Top Oil-related threads ====================== UPDATED Hits--- : mid-Jun / end-Jan : ===== +4,070 : started : OIL thread, links (this thread) 27,100 : 18,100 : Kerr's Oil thread : $200-400 Oil : xxxxxx : +6,600 : Major Low in Oil Coming : +4,800 : +1,400 : Be Careful with the Oil Etfs : xxxxxx :+1,000 : Gold-to-Oil Ratio : +2,220 : ++ 800 : Signals for Oil : OIH as a Bellwether : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mSparks Posted June 23, 2009 Report Share Posted June 23, 2009 My old Thread on moddb in June 08 is also "notable" http://www.moddb.com/forum/thread/bbc-lies...ably-media-wide Oil news July 2008 and I'm sticking this here because I need to come back to it later: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/washingt...2&ref=world ^US refusal was July 2008 (page 3) Basically looks like the missing piece of the jigsaw, - Iran really was worth about $100 on the oil price, looks like this really did earn Lehman its place in the history books. new names Admiral Mullen Gabi Ashkenazi EDIT:Gives a lot of weight to the rumours of Iran shooting down several Israeli planes However, as much as I agree oil probably has some more downside from right at this moment, seller beware: http://english.aljazeera.net//news/asia-pa...5115867381.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted August 10, 2009 Report Share Posted August 10, 2009 Do not discount the threat of peak oil - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bed9186c-8514-11...144feabdc0.html By Will Whitehorn and Jeremy Leggett Published: August 9 2009 19:47 | Last updated: August 9 2009 19:47 Last week, the government published a review of the UK’s energy security situation. In a report commissioned by the prime minister, Malcolm Wicks, the former energy minister, pronounced that “there is no crisis”. His findings were in marked contrast to those of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, which concluded last year that the economy faces a clear and present energy-security threat. The taskforce, a group that includes Virgin, Scottish and Southern Energy, Arup, Stagecoach and Solarcentury, was set up in 2007 on the basis of our shared opinion that peak oil merited serious study as a business risk. Some began with the assumption that the issue was low-risk but high-consequence. Sadly, we are now of the collective view that peak oil is a high-risk, high-consequence issue. How can government be so out of tune with such a wide spectrum of companies? The core of the disagreement is the point at which the world pumps as much oil in a day as it is ever going to pump. Beyond the peak, or plateau perhaps, lies a descent that would pose huge challenges for oil-dependent economies. There is a grave danger, in the view of the taskforce, that this will happen earlier than widely expected. In the words of its report: “The risks to UK society from peak oil are far greater than those that tend to occupy the government’s risk-thinking, including terrorism.” We fear this is because of over-estimation of reserves by the global oil industry, underinvestment in exploration and production, or a combination of the two. Once the descent begins, the realisation would sweep the world that another leading industry has its asset assessment systemically wrong. The danger is that producing nations then start cutting exports. At that point, for some oil-consuming nations, energy crisis becomes energy famine. The taskforce will produce a second report this November, studying among other topics the impact of the recession on oil production, which we concluded (www.peakoiltaskforce.net) last November was most likely to peak in 2013. Early indications are that the recession has moved the peak a little further into the next decade, but steepened the descent in production thereafter. Most leaders in the oil industry put the peak well beyond the next decade, a view that we know senior civil servants share. The Wicks review mentions peak oil only once. The relevant passage concludes: “Few authors advocating an imminent peak take account of factors such as the role of prices in stimulating exploration, investment, technological development and changes in consumer behaviour.” The UK industry taskforce report ignored none of these things. Prices do stimulate exploration but – we argue – not enough. We discuss the intervals between oil discoveries and bringing capacity to the market. We discuss investment, and conclude that there have been dangerous shortfalls even when prices have been high. We discuss technological developments such as enhanced oil recovery and conclude that they tend only to slow depletion rates. We discuss changes in consumer behaviour and worry that they will not be sufficient, especially in India and China, to shrink global demand in parallel with supply. If we imagine a review of financial security in 2006, the equivalent of the cursory dismissal of peak oil in the Wicks review might have read as follows: “Few authors advocating the toxicity of derivatives take into account factors such as the investment banking industry’s sophisticated treatment of risk, and the extent of the due diligence involved in awarding triple-A investment grading.” We believe there are profound cultural problems in this debate. The FT’s Gillian Tett has argued that the banking elite cocooned itself in a “social silence” over the true worth of its assets in the run-up to the financial crunch. We worry that the oil industry is wrapped in a social silence on the depletion of its own assets. If we are right, a dire energy crunch awaits us and we need to act now. The most perplexing thing about this fundamental difference of opinion is this. The UK taskforce held two meetings with Department of Energy and Climate Change officials, one of which Mr Wicks attended himself. Yet his review ignores not just our conclusions, but our very existence. Will Whitehorn, president of Virgin Galactic, is chairman of ITPOES. Jeremy Leggett, chairman of Solarcentury, is convenor of ITPOES Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 For those new to Futures, here's a description of how the WTI contract works How wti Futs : http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/001...rude/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 For those new to Futures, here's a description of how the WTI contract works How wti Futs : http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/001...rude/index.html Excellent thanks, mini futures contracts (500 brls) are also available making trading more accessible to retail investors http://www.nymex.com/QM_spec.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted September 5, 2009 Report Share Posted September 5, 2009 Crude Oil Is on ‘Slippery Slope’ Toward $60: Technical Analysis Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is on a “slippery slope” after failing to break through resistance and is set to test support at $60.43 a barrel, according to technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York. The failure of October oil futures to breach $75.27, the June 11 high, has made crude vulnerable to “significant decline,” according to Richard Ross, a technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson. Futures dropped more than $7 since touching $75 a barrel on Aug. 25. “We are right on a precipice here and are at a very important inflection point,” Ross said in a telephone interview. Settling below $68 a barrel yesterday “opens the door to testing $65 and $60.43, which was the low on July 13.” The failure of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to cross is another indication that prices may fall, Ross said. The contract dropped below the 50-day moving average on Aug. 31. Oil fell below the 200-day exponential moving average on Sept. 1. An additional bearish factor is the divergence between prices and the relative strength index, according to Ross. The RSI measures how rapidly prices advanced or dropped in a specific period. “The weakness in the RSI is actually confirming the recent pullback in the price of crude and is an indication that prices may in fact have further to fall,” Ross said. “The lack of an oversold reading of 30 or less reinforces my belief that support may not hold in here.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=awXvOIVHcjCs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 24, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2009 I added this to the header *Oil Link? DubaiFM vs. Oil/USO ... update Funnily enough, DubaiFM sometimes leads oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted January 22, 2010 Report Share Posted January 22, 2010 Quite a slide in crude the last 2 weeks: 13% (2.9% just today) Seems like the China tightenning and the threatened clamp down on bank prop trading has spooked those who were assuming rapid growth from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2014 RATIO: Gold-to-Oil ($Gold/$WTIC) Historic Range of the Gold-to-Oil Ratio: > http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/gold_oil_ratio.php >source: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5723 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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