Jump to content
drbubb

Gold: the Bull's thread

Recommended Posts

'How the hell did the dollar stengthen?'

 

Also what kicked off first, gold drop or dollar rise?

Gold was rising and dollar was falling - is it niave to think that US would sell some of their massive gold to rebalance this move? (genuine question)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting article in todays Torygraph about investing in Gold.

 

It suggests investing in Gold Funds mostly.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...09/cmgold09.xml

 

One comment in this article caught my attention.....

 

"But I would suggest caution. One of the risks to the economy is the falling rates of growth of money supply especially in the US. This is potentially going to lead to lower inflationary pressure than many investors fear."

 

Is money supply falling? I thought it was still being happily pumped into the system.

 

Still it's interesting to see an article on Gold in a National newspaper.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Is money supply falling? I thought it was still being happily pumped into the system.

 

It's the rate of growth over time of money supply falling, not the money supply itself. So it is growing, but not as fast as before. But one could argue that if the rate of growth of money supply is above the growth in, say, output then it is still inflationary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Still it's interesting to see an article on Gold in a National newspaper.

 

Yes, and often when something goes mainstream it is a contrarian indicator to not follow. Not clear what the date of this was, but if you are a goldbug the magazine cover below ought to ring some alarms.

 

fo_ofie336x225_FT_CVR_051226.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
'How the hell did the dollar stengthen?'

 

Also what kicked off first, gold drop or dollar rise?

Gold was rising and dollar was falling - is it niave to think that US would sell some of their massive gold to rebalance this move? (genuine question)

 

 

Listening to FSN today they said that the stock market thinks rate rising is done but the FX markets think the Fed will raise rates, it would explain why gold dropped a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Amost at 200dma if it drops below that I don't know what will happen.

 

Maybe we whould reopen Gold - the bears thread.

 

588 - I didn't see this coming. It could go anywhere from here (it's looking quite bearish to me at the moment)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We've bounced back up to the 200DMA in quite an impressive fashion. I expect we'll dip down again, maybe during the Jap session, just to confirm the low, but presuming today's low holds and we manage to consolidate back above the 200DMA later this week, then I will add to my position. Currently down a loooong way, but determined to not add any more until a clear bottom is in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On Gold,

There is some possibility of a Low being put in here & now

00akf9.gif

But gold will need to close that gap soon

So far, it reminds me of the previous fall thru $600, which quicklty brought a fall to $555,

and left a gap, later filled, near $600

 

i also note that the current crude level near $65, can generate a bounce

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Barchart.com 's indicators read the markets as follows:

 

Composite Indicator

Trend Spotter TM Sell

 

Short Term Indicators

7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell

10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Sell

20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell

20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell

20 Day Bollinger Bands Sell

 

Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell

20-Day Average Volume - 36230

 

Medium Term Indicators

40 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell

50 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell

20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell

50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Sell

 

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell

50-Day Average Volume - 51711

 

Long Term Indicators

60 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell

100 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell

50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell

 

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell

100-Day Average Volume - 63576

 

Overall Average: 100% - Sell

 

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

597.3 572.6 602.0 631.4

 

 

But are we seeing a bounce of the 200dma?

 

sclf0.png]gold[/url]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gold : logical target is $550-560 : chart update : daily

bigzg3.gif

 

$560-ish is where the lower bolly and the 52-week ma's converge // that's the 252d ma

$550 is the prior low.

 

Note how volume on GLD is drying up as the price falls - a bullish sign

The weekly chart for silver : chart : targets $10

 

Oil/ USO meantime has been falling on rising volume / not bullish: chart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(from the august watchlist thread - in case you missed it)

 

the Seasonal Gold chart shows the big Pop up in the second half,

so that period is still ahead of us. We could get a low within this week at $560 or so.

 

Some Senior stocks, charts, and possible targets follow:

 

Newmont : NEM : $42.40

Barrick... : ABX : maybe $27.20

Anglogold : AU : $40-now!, or maybe $37

Goldfields : GFI : $16, or maybe $14

Goldcorp. : GG : $23, maybe $20

ASA Corp : ASA : $50

 

- -

some cyclical dates from Fred Starkey for Gold & Silver are as follows:

 

52 week: high: Oct.6th // minor low: Nov 6th // low: jan 5th

 

he talks about gold going to $660, $683 or even $718

it is funny how he is talking Oct upside targets as gold is falling.

This is because of a "double divergence on the stochastics" - expects sharp turnaround

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gold : logical target is $550-560 : chart update

bigzg3.gif

 

$560-ish is where the lower bolly and the 52-week ma's converge // that's the 252d ma

$550 is the prior low.

 

Note how volume on GLD is drying up as the price falls - a bullish sign

The weekly chart for silver : chart : targets $10

 

Oil/ USO meantime has been falling on rising volume / not bullish: chart

 

Can someone please tell me what the volume represents.

 

Is it the volume of transactions and if it is low while the price is dropping does that mean that a small amount of people are selling a lot ogf gold?

 

If so does this give us evidence of possible price manipulation here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

that is volume traded in GLD, the Gold tracker etf, which folows the gold price.

 

Thus, it is a hint of the overall interest in gold, without necessarily reflecting all transactions

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold tumbling again.....now sub $580

 

The fall stinks of central bank selling, back in August they still has around 100 tons sitting in their vaults which they could sell before reaching the limits of the Washington agreement, their gentlemans agreement not to sell more than 500 tons of gold per year. The bosses of the Central banks are having their annual conference next week and gold was always going to be on the agenda, the two european central banks who sold to drive the price down this week have ensured that any bosses considering increasing rather than decreasing their gold holdings will need to think again.

 

The current falls are due to a combination of central bank selling combined with falling energy prices thanks to the US holding back on attacking Iran until the current run of elections are out of the way. Short term gold will now have to contend with investors looking to drive it further below the 200 day moving average but the longer term fundamentals which drove the recent gold bull are still there.

 

Guess its all eyes on NY this afternoon I suspect the support mentioned by Barclays will prove just too tempting and we may see $550 for a while before a rally after the central banks meeting which may pick up pace after the US elections are out of the way and Bush feels able to let his Rottweilers out again.

 

Buy now for gold relief rally next week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The fall stinks of central bank selling, back in August they still has around 100 tons sitting in their vaults which they could sell before reaching the limits of the Washington agreement, their gentlemans agreement not to sell more than 500 tons of gold per year. The bosses of the Central banks are having their annual conference next week and gold was always going to be on the agenda, the two european central banks who sold to drive the price down this week have ensured that any bosses considering increasing rather than decreasing their gold holdings will need to think again.

 

The current falls are due to a combination of central bank selling combined with falling energy prices thanks to the US holding back on attacking Iran until the current run of elections are out of the way. Short term gold will now have to contend with investors looking to drive it further below the 200 day moving average but the longer term fundamentals which drove the recent gold bull are still there.

 

Guess its all eyes on NY this afternoon I suspect the support mentioned by Barclays will prove just too tempting and we may see $550 for a while before a rally after the central banks meeting which may pick up pace after the US elections are out of the way and Bush feels able to let his Rottweilers out again.

 

Buy now for gold relief rally next week

 

 

Thanks for that Riser

 

From what I am reading, the consensus are still bullish on gold so I am happy to wait until we see a significant rallly.

 

Like many I suspect, I got caught out with this latest drop in price. I bought back in around the $620 mark,

but luckily I have scraped together a few more thousand to invest so I hopefully I can pick a better buying opportunity in the next few days

 

Cheers

 

Harvi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's said that gold responds to uncertainty and global tension. I wonder if the Pope has a few nuggets tucked away.

 

I'm sure he has some, the holy grail and all that if you know what I mean. :D

 

As for the real world, if you look at some charts of gold going back 5-6 years the long term trend is still well in place - upwards. Only if gold falls through $500 is it really in trouble IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes - the 5 year chart still looks a tad scary (as in price still way above long term uptrend). I'm sure the amount of dollars printed over the last few years more than justifies $600+ gold, but the markets don't seem to be seeing it as a currency at the moment so that aspect of the fundamentals isn't really in play. I'll be aiming to trade the weekly up and down trends wherever they take us in the short term, rather than committing to long term positions. If we get as low as $525, that may change as the risk / reward will be hugely good at that point.

 

Ultimate scenario... gold gets dragged down to $500ish alongside a general commodity bust, as US recession kicks in early next year. Gold bottoms just in time for me to STR next May allowing me to confidently commit most of the STR fund to bullion / gold stocks. 3 years later I've doubled my money and UK house prices are down 30% :D Won't hold my breath, but it would be very nice!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot of people have been seeking to catch the bottom in this fall and, in doing so, they have guessed that gold will bounce either off its 200dma or its 252 dma - ie that the 200dma at about 590 or the 252 dma ten dollars or so lower would be the bottom.

 

If they have traded on this basis they will have lost money.

 

The argument is that we are in a bull market and often in a bull market the 200 or 252 dma can mark the bottom of the pullback.

 

These charts at http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/g.../2006/0919.html argue that the 200 and 252dma have not been so accurate in calling bottoms during gold's run, that in fact the 300 dma is a better tool. And, looking at the charts, gold has not passed through the 300 dma once since the 'bull' began in 01. BUT it has bounced off it many times.

 

So it might be that, if gold goes any lower from here, it will find its bottom and bounce off the 300dma at 550, (567.1 if you trade the December future). If recent history is any guide, there is a good chance that is what will unfold. But who knows with gold?

 

bigto8.gif]gold[/url]

 

fsspon5bd7.png]december gold[/url]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×