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Gold: the Bull's thread

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The chart for GLD, gold etd...

 

Also suggests that Gold may have reached the top of its trading range.

A fall from here would not be surprising. I have puts on XAU, NEM, GG.

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DB, are still holding out for a retest of May lows in August for gold?

 

I plan to start averaging into gold once it goes below $600 but am wondering if I should wait for further falls in August ...

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Thanks guys. I shall be mostly in cash come August so that suits me fine.

 

Any thoughts on how to get invested in gold? I was planning on simply buying bullion and storing it in a safety deposit box in the local bank. I'm looking at an amount in the region of 30oz or so and I plan on holding it for a considerable length time.

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I use goldmoney (goldmoney.com). It is the simplest and best way I have found of holding physical gold.

 

It is also the by far the best way I have found of holding physical silver in the UK.

 

There is also the kitco gold pool, which is cheaper, and bullionvault.

 

Puplava and others also advise you to have physical gold and silver in your possessioin - ie hidden in your house somehwere. I don't do this - well, I have one sovereign - but the arguments for doing it (safety and immediate access to your wealth in a crisis) are strong.

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Thanks to all for the comments and I tend to agree that we have seen the top for now. I have now sold out and crossing my fingers I can get a better price later in the year

 

Cheers

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Thanks to all for the comments and I tend to agree that we have seen the top for now. I have now sold out and crossing my fingers I can get a better price later in the year

 

Cheers

No top yet, $642 and climbing.

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No top yet, $642 and climbing.

 

Yep, I am watching it :)

 

Looked like the rally was running out of steam yesterday so sold out earlier today. Still took a profit so not too unhappy

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Gold seems to have decoupled from stocks. Probably due to its "safe haven" status. It has jumped massively today (GLD 63.97 +3.14%) while stocks have fallen.

 

If we get a short "C" rally for stocks tomorrow is gold likely to be carried with it or will it fall?

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And the reason for today's gold move?

 

In a clear display of their safe-haven allure, gold futures closed higher Tuesday after seven explosions ripped through evening rush-hour commuter trains in Bombay in a coordinated attack that killed an estimated 130 people and injured more than 250.

 

Gold for August delivery closed up $17 at $643.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest level since June 5.

 

The train blasts in Bombay, India's financial center, resonated on the gold market since the country is one of the biggest buyers of physical gold.

 

"Every time you have a terrorist-related violent act, there'll be a bounce in gold, because it's a move to safety," said Amaury Conti, equity trader at Austin Calvert-Flavin.

 

"We've seen spikes in the gold price every time you have such an event," Conti said. "If gold closes above $640, that would be very positive."

 

Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, said: "Gold's the safe haven and the accepted investment when global tensions rise."

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/31Xk...dist=TNMostRead

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It's attaching news to price action retrospectively, as always done by the media. If there hadn't been any bomb explosions, there would have been a different news story attached to the price action, for example "renewed fears about inflation".

 

I took some of my position off the table today at 634 (only to see the POG shoot up to 644), but I agree with the majority of esteemed posters here that we may have a short term top or are near it. My crude analysis tells me the golden ratio (0.63) retrace from the 730-540 fall is around 650, so we could retest that again.

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I think we could see the 61.8% fib tested now, at $658.

 

currently I am running a long silver/short gold hedge trade that is fluttering in and out of profit.

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It's attaching news to price action retrospectively, as always done by the media. If there hadn't been any bomb explosions, there would have been a different news story attached to the price action, for example "renewed fears about inflation".

 

 

I wouldn't disagree with that, but gold is a bad news investment. Bad news in the sense that the more bad news, the better it does. Bombs, war, death, inflation, decline of the dollar, money printing, assett bubble creating central banks, debt, etc. If it was all good news, the goldbugs would go back to being a small minority and the herd would be looking at tech, retailing, biotech or whatever. In a good news climate, gold will struggle, and that's why I expect it will do very well over the next 10 years or so, because while the world will not come to an end, there are plenty of bad things that will happen to sustain gold's long term bull run.

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My, my, how times have changed. A few years ago the US dollar was the safe haven investment of choice. Gold was a barbarous relic to be shunned at all costs. Cost indeed!

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Is gold moving too fast again? Its now at $663 which is up $100 or 18% in the past month.

 

Do you have the bottle to jump in at this late stage?

 

I certainly dont! :)

 

I agree though it is worrying.......are we still going to see a retest of the lows

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BOJ have raised rates to 0.25% overnight will this signal a short term top for gold?. Speculation about a squeeze on global money supply sent gold and the markets into a tail spin a couple of months ago, this time it’s for real.

 

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...&ID=5866650

 

It oil weakens we may see gold fall for a while until hurricane season and market forces push oil above $80 which combined with a falling dollar should see gold retest $750 by September.

 

Tempted to sell some of my oil gold and silver calls here but may just sit back and tough out any dip for a couple of months as there is always the chance that Iran will hit centre stage. There is a voice in my head that tells me Israel’s recent attacks are designed to provoke a reaction that will e used an excuse for an attack on Iran.

 

[EDIT] The pieces continue to fall into place

 

Iran warns Israel not to attack Syria

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well I coudln't jus stand by and watch. In for a small amount.

 

Current price ~$675

 

Looks like its just fallen off a cliff.......$651 @ 14.35

 

Anyone make any sense of this?

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Tom Obrien had targetted $676-677 as a peaking area.

 

Seems that it has worked like a dream. Gold is tumbling MORE than the shares now, but both are under pressure

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Tom Obrien had targetted $676-677 as a peaking area.

 

Seems that it has worked like a dream. Gold is tumbling MORE than the shares now, but both are under pressure

Some German paper has reported that Iran has accepted the package of incetives. Oil dropped a dollar on the news. So much for fear premium. Gold is also reacting to the rising US dollar as a haven of "safety" in these troubled times. Good opportunity for Ben to cut rates.

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I've tentatively bought back into Silver at $11.00 after selling out at $11.60 last week. Will probably buy more if it can build a base around this level. (I'm not confident we'll see anything near $10.00 again, but will happily follow it down and buy more there if it does.)

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