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drbubb

Gold: the Bull's thread

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Gold just spiked over $600

 

 

But it seems everything is spiking today. The markets are happy. I'm not reading too much in to it - yet.

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But it seems everything is spiking today. The markets are happy. I'm not reading too much in to it - yet.

 

Is this a reaction to the Fed raising IR's?

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But it seems everything is spiking today. The markets are happy. I'm not reading too much in to it - yet.

FED raised 1/4 point. Indicated further tightening may be necessary, "may" being the operative word. Some had expected 1/2 point. or 1/4 and another in August. August looks less likely now. Gold settles at just below $600 as the dollar sinks.

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Is this a reaction to the Fed raising IR's?

 

 

Well, the market was due a bounce, but today's good day seems to be a reaction to the change in tone of the Fed statement (I've posted this on the June Market thread). The markets are clearly hoping that this just may be the long awaited pause, if not a complete halt to this IR cycle.

 

You might think that gold would react negatively to more rate hikes, but today is party time, and gold was due a bounce as well.

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You might think that gold would react negatively to more rate hikes, but today is party time, and gold was due a bounce as well.

 

Indeed. Throughout this Fed rate hiking campaign, gold has risen regardless. Today was a definitive continuation of that trend, and certainly unwelcome from the Fed's point of view I'm sure. What this makes me wonder is... if gold reacts this way to another hike, just how fast will gold rise when they STOP raising rates?!

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I think the market is already pricing in a freeze on rates in August. The market are a future discounting mechanism...

 

Sold all my gold today for a nice profit. Still keeping a small long on silver.

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Dr Bubb,

 

Are you selling into this rally or do you think we could see more upside from here?

 

I think this rally is being driven by a number of factors

 

Berenke suggesting future US IR increases may be delayed for a while while he ramps up the printing presses and starts living upto his name of Helicopter Ben.

 

Rising oil prices on the back of tensions caused by Isreal invading Gaza

 

Sentiment as investors looking to buy back into gold start to gain confidence that this is near the bottom of the current correction.

 

None of these factors look like they are going to go away anytime soon.

 

On the bearish side its still a long way to September and many expect one final correction which will offer a better buying opportunity

 

The recent pull back showed that the central banks are still able to control the price of gold and silver in the short term, many investors may feel you can't win a rigged game.

 

The 20% drop from the peak may have changed sentiment that the current gold bull is unstopable.

 

Reports of iminent rate rises in Japan are still rumbling on which could reduce liquidity

 

I am long with allocated gold and silver and Dec06 and June07 CFD calls and am happy to ride out any summmer dip before we move towards $800 gold by year end and hopefully $20 silver by next Summer.

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I'm also interested to know if you sold Dr Bubb or have the short term indicators told you there is still more upside? I personally dont have the confidence to sell now because I cant be sure it wont continue to go up.

I was fooled by the last rally and continued buying all the way to the top as I didnt know that it was heading for a 20% crash. I actually bought 5k of gold at $730. My biggest worry would be to sell all my gold and miss the big one going to $800 and beyond, but in future I wont be so quick to buy just because its going up.

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SElling? Yes.

And reasonably aggressively today during NY trading hours

 

In my shortterm "aggressive" trading account, I have cleared out ALL the long positions.

Now I have: record levels of cash, and some Puts on XAU, NEM which were bought today.

 

I am still long Junior miners and explorers, but will be looking to clear some of those today,

and early next week.

 

I think $630-640 is possible on this rally, but the Good feelings may end by early next week,

 

IF YOU LOOK at this Chart...

It suggests that Gold may end here ($615) or rally to $640.

I am clearing out plenty of my positions, but stay long many Juniors in case we get the rally to $640 or higher.

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I was fooled by the last rally and continued buying all the way to the top as I didnt know that it was heading for a 20% crash. I actually bought 5k of gold at $730. My biggest worry would be to sell all my gold and miss the big one going to $800 and beyond, but in future I wont be so quick to buy just because its going up.

 

sine270, you need to determine what your investment timeframe here is. If you bought 5k of physical gold at $730 with the intention of holding for the long term you really need to get out of your mind these corrections, which while a concern, should not be used as an excuse to sell at the first sign of any technical weakness. It may well be that you bought at the wrong time as a correction was likely given gold's recent bull run, but on a long term view, 5-10 years you should have no worries as for many $730 will be positively cheap if you believe that the fundamentals supporting gold for the next decade will hold good.

 

Short term, if you sell now you have lost money, long term, you should be alright, but you might need nerves of steel during the ups and downs.

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I sold over $250K of gold and silver today at modest profit ($10K?)

on the theory that I will be able to buy it back cheaper in August.

 

I originally bought the Gold at just over $600/oz., and felt a bit shellshocked on that $40 drop,

so quick rally of the past few days brought meback into profit, after a few worried days.

 

It may be that many others are selling here on "relief", and it will go much higher. If it does,

I will benefit thru the Junior Miners and Explorers that i hold. But i definitely want to have some

cash for possible August "bargain-hunting"

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sine270, you need to determine what your investment timeframe here is. If you bought 5k of physical gold at $730 with the intention of holding for the long term you really need to get out of your mind these corrections, which while a concern, should not be used as an excuse to sell at the first sign of any technical weakness. It may well be that you bought at the wrong time as a correction was likely given gold's recent bull run, but on a long term view, 5-10 years you should have no worries as for many $730 will be positively cheap if you believe that the fundamentals supporting gold for the next decade will hold good.

 

Short term, if you sell now you have lost money, long term, you should be alright, but you might need nerves of steel during the ups and downs.

 

 

Agree with you on the time frame thing No6. I hold considerably more than 5k worth and fortunately started buying around $450. I was quite a way into making a loss recently though and now closer to breaking even. As you said, nerves of steel will be important for riding though the peaks and troughs and it will be very important not to sell on technical weakness if its a long term investment strategy. My timeframe is as long as it takes, but like most people I dont much enjoy seeing a paper loss. I also believe that the fundamentals supporting gold will hold good for quite a few years and cant think of a safer place for my cash at the moment.

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I sold over $250K of gold and silver today at modest profit ($10K?)

on the theory that I will be able to buy it back cheaper in August.

 

I originally bought the Gold at just over $600/oz., and felt a bit shellshocked on that $40 drop,

so quick rally of the past few days brought meback into profit, after a few worried days.

 

It may be that many others are selling here on "relief", and it will go much higher. If it does,

I will benefit thru the Junior Miners and Explorers that i hold. But i definitely want to have some

cash for possible August "bargain-hunting"

 

Ouch that must have been hurting for a couple of weeks, but well worth it for 10k. Thanks for answering my earlier question about the August low. Are you prepared to buy around that time even if the price is close to what it is today? I am assuming you expect August to be lower than the following months irrespective of the August price.

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i expect the august lows to be at least as low as the recent lows.

 

and whatever happened alon the way,it is good to walk away from my first decent sized gold trade with a profit. but a $10k profit or loss is neither here or there in the context of my portfolio

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For Gold, Oil or Gas all you need to know is this.

 

Watch the Rouble appreciate (at least 10%)and rock our little western minds.

The price of Russian Gas and Oil will go up like a fart in a swimming pool - you wont smell it until its too late :lol:

 

Nice one Vlad, you've really knackered us now.

How many nails does the dollar have in its coffin at this point?

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Gold up to $319 last night in Asia, the last rally was accompanied by strong overnight trading I remember waking up every morning to see the price up $5-10, great start to the day :lol:

 

I know many ignore overnight prices and focus just on the NY market but I wonder if there is a rellationship between the strength of the over night price and next day NY prices. Does anyone have a link to historical asian gold prices most of the historic data I have is based on NY.

 

TIA

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Gold up to $319 ($619?) ... actually: $620.50 now

 

I tend to disregard prices outside US hours, since any price action tends to get retraced during NY hours. But over the last 12 months, that has begun to change, with traders in theFar East and the Gulf taking a leading role in moving prices.

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Gold up to $319 ($619?) ... actually: $620.50 now

 

I tend to disregard prices outside US hours, since any price action tends to get retraced during NY hours. But over the last 12 months, that has begun to change, with traders in theFar East and the Gulf taking a leading role in moving prices.

 

Opps - confusion watching price in both $ and £ currently £336

 

UAE Central Bank set to enter the gold market

 

I wonder if the new UAE gold market will see a flow of Arab money after the recent falls in the arab stock markets. It has also long being rumoured that many of the US treasuries purchased through the UK are actually from Arab counteries, as confidence if the Dollar collapses could this money also start to find a home in gold ?

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The upthrust seems to waning.

Let's see if if will get back on track in US trading.

As some here know, I have shorted US stocks in a big way on Monday- by purchasing stock index puts

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Today is interesting.

 

Dollar gone up.

Stockmarkets gone down quite a lot (around 1%)

Gold gone up.

 

Gold normally seems to go down when the dollar goes up and has recently been tied to the sm so its not doing what it "should" do today.

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I think the bounce is done - topped around $638 at the 50dma. I hope for a pullback, and will be happy to start accumulating around and under $600. Silver usually leads gold (or at least exaggerates its movements) and is down quite a lot this morning...

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Yes, Arch Crawford identified July 5-7 as a possible near term top and, judging by today's action, it looks like we may have seen that.

 

And Evil is right: throughout the spring silver definitely led gold.

 

If we are seeing an ABC correction from gold's high of 728, we might late on Friday have turned from the B up and are now seeing the start of the C down.

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