Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Does history repeat?

 

Do patterns recur?

 

If so, we may be at a point similar to the Sept 2005 low of 6.80.

 

silverns1.gif

 

 

YEP.

You have a nice fractal there!

 

It is normal to have the last drop "just break the trendline" before shooting higher.

That cleans out the last sellers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Term:

Fractal

Definition:

An object in which the parts are in some way related to the whole. That is, the individual components are "self-similar." An example is the branching network in a tree. While each branch, and each successive smaller branching is different, they are qualitatively similar to the structure of the whole tree.

 

Fractal

 

What does it Mean? A type of pattern used in technical analysis to predict a reversal in the current trend. A fractal pattern consists of five bars and is identified when the price meets the following characteristics:

 

1. A shift from a downtrend to an uptrend occurs when the lowest bar is located in the middle of the pattern and two bars with successively higher lows are positioned around it.

 

2. A shift from an uptrend to a downtrend occurs when the highest bar is located in the middle of the pattern and two bars with successively lower highs are positioned around it.

 

Investopedia Says... Fractal signals are most useful when used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as Fibonacci retracement or various moving averages. It should be noted that this is not a widely used indicator, so it may not be available for every type of charting application. But various third parties have developed various plug-ins which make using fractals possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ON BEING A SILVER MILLIONAIRE - Different Definitions

=============

 

Now let us revisit the amount of U.S. millionaires in the beginning of this article. If we have 2.6 millionaires in terms of paper and it takes ten million in cash at today’s price ($13 per ounce) to become a silver millionaire, then all we need to do is cut our 2.6 million by a factor of 10. This would give us 260,000 with a ten million equivalent that have the paper necessary to purchase 715,000 ounces, yet less than 1400 will be able to find sufficient silver to qualify as “silver millionaires.” Simply stated, there is almost 200 times as much paper available to purchase silver than silver available if we limit our analysis to the millionaire category only.

 

This of course is looking from the U.S. perspective only, and in today’s interconnected world, there are investors worldwide that are participating in the silver market and many more will be participating in the future.

 

If the inflationary pressures continue to build as the U.S. “dollar” continues to be printed to service the outstanding debt obligations, it is quite possible that the number of paper millionaires will increase over time. However, the ability to become a real millionaire—a “silver millionaire”—will become more and more difficult.

 

...see: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/m.../2007/0702.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TED BUTLER COMMENTARY

http://www.investmentrarities.com/09-04-07.html

 

 

 

September 4, 2007

 

Actions Speak Louder Than Words

 

In a surprisingly bullish development, the latest Commitment of Traders Report (COT) recorded a shocking further improvement in COMEX silver futures. For the week ending August 28, the dealers bought heavily again, as large speculators sold aggressively. There was some deterioration in gold, but we are still in COT territory highly suggestive of a significant potential advance. A number of other markets, including the Euro, are similarly aligned bullishly in COT terms.

 

He goes on to say ...

 

The combined total commercial net short position is at its lowest (and most bullish) point in 4 years, at 27,000 contracts, The gross and net long position in the non-commercial category is at its lowest in that same time span. This is confirmed by the even more dramatic change in the number of traders in the non-commercial category, where there has never been fewer long-side traders or more short-side traders than in the current report. Thus, the already bullish COT set up just got a lot more bullish.

 

and then

 

I can’t over emphasize the bullish COT set up in silver. The fundamentals have never been better in silver, and the dramatic improvement in the COT creates a particularly attractive opportunity for buying silver at this time.

 

The last time the COT was this good, 4 years ago, silver was priced around $4.50 an ounce. We know we have less available silver in the world than 4 years ago. We know that what available silver remains is held in stronger and less concentrated hands. We know the shorts are more concentrated than they were 4 years ago and are coming under increasing scrutiny. That’s makes them more vulnerable and sets the stage for an upside surprise. No one would turn down the chance to buy silver at $4.50 an ounce. In a very real sense, according to the COT market structure, silver is the equivalent to its $4.50 price tag of 4 years ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To add to the bullish backdrop for silver. the Mexican economy is showing some severe strain. They produce some 15% of the world's annual silver production so if they tank ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The COT report can be an extremely reliable indicator.

 

Here are some findings:

 

 

1 Aug 2006 Commercials net short 44000 contracts

2 September 2005 (at start of silver’s big move from below $7 to $15 in May 2006) Commercials net short 32000 contracts

12 May 2006 (Just before big correction) Commercials net short 53000 contracts

8 Sep 2006 (Just before correction) Commercials net short 51000 contracts

3 Oct 2006 Commercials net short 35886 contracts

23 Feb 2007 (Just before major correction) Commercials net short 65000 contracts

21 Aug 2007 Commercials net short 35422 contracts

28 August 2007 Commercials net short 27000 contracts

 

Suppliers of COT data:

 

http://news.silverseek.com/COT/

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

http://www.softwarenorth.com/trading/commitmentscurrent/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frizzers,

Can you list your favorite silver stocks for us? Some of the juniors look a lot cheaper after the August meltdown.

Thanks,

Ace

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't know if this has been posted before, but worth a read.

It's known and has been mentioned on here before that there has been a super high concentration of shorts in the silver markets for a very long time now.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/28810/why-th...et-to-soar.html

 

"Perhaps the foremost analyst of the silver market today is Mr Theodore Butler. He believes that gold and particularly silver are the laggards in the commodity complex due to price manipulation. At over 300 million ounces, the largest 8 traders on the COMEX are short more silver bullion than exists in total known world inventories, including total SLV holdings and total COMEX inventories.

 

Butler sums it up succinctly, ”If there is one thing that separates silver from any other asset class, or any other item in any asset class, it is the presence of an unprecedented concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures. It is the existence of this concentrated short position that will, at some point, launch the silver price to the heavens. This short position has grown so large, and is held by so few entities, that it no longer matters how it will be resolved. It must be resolved and, whether that resolution involves default or buying by short covering, it will have the same bullish impact on price. You don’t have to look any further than the concentrated COMEX short position as to why silver has not outperformed every other commodity. Just as it explains price under performance, it is telling you why there must be overperformance in the future. At some point, the price of silver must accelerate upward to price levels that are truly shocking."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ace,

I have just written a newsletter for moneyweek and here are the silvers that I mentioned. If you stick in stink bids and we get another Aug 16th - you may get them a lot cheaper:

 

Excellon Resources (CA:EXN). Cleverly-financed silver producer in Mexico, also growing their resource through exploration, with innovative and inventive management. Chart stuck in a range between $1.25 and $1.50. Buy below C$1.30, if you can.

 

First Majestic (CA:FR). Another silver producer-explorer from Mexico with Keith Neumeyer (of First Quantum fame) in charge. Share price has underperformed, is highly irascible, but has a lot of upside potential. A snip below C$3.50, but not a good stock for the nerves. I suspect this is a stock that gets shorted a lot.

 

Aquiline (CA:AQI) A long way from being a producer, but they have in their Navidad property in Argentina one of the largest undeveloped silver deposits in the world. They may need a little help with it from a major, if you catch my drift. Marc Henderson (of Laramide fame) is a great CEO. Price has pulled back a lot during recent correction. Could easily go back to $12, even without much of a move in the price of silver. Buy around C$8.50.

 

Silver Wheaton (CA:SLW) The most major of these miners, if you’ll forgive the pun. A tightly run (barely a handful of employees), pure silver ship with a simple and unique business model. Having silver purchase contracts with five separate mines, the Company expects to sell approximately 15 million ounces of silver in 2007, growing to 23 million ounces by 2009. It's a royalty company, basically, but I have not met management. Forget the silver ETFs, buy SLW and buy it as close to C$11 as you can.

 

For the record, I own stock in all the above companies (except Silver Wheaton) – and have done for a while.

 

Great Panther (CA:GPR) is also worth a look.

 

I have it on good authority, Ace, that Garibaldi (CA:GAR) is an excellent explorer, pursuing the same staking strategy as, I believe, Silver Standard, but I do not know the company and I have not met management.

 

On all the above DYOR

 

Dr Bubb, do you have any that you like? And what is your view of silver at the moment?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thnx, F.

I have been buying Silver shares like : Great Panther, Silvercrest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, I have met management at Silvercrest. Liked them. (They gave us lunch at The Savoy, darling).

 

I'm just a bit jittery about anyone who is not actually producing and thus generating cash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the website http://www.hochschildmining.com/company/index.php

 

Hochschild Mining is a leading precious metals company with a primary focus on the exploration, mining, processing and sale of silver and gold.

 

We are the 4th largest primary silver producer*.

 

In 2006, we produced 11.6 moz of silver and 196 koz of gold which equates to 23.3 moz silver equivalent.

 

Hochschild Mining has over forty years experience in the exploration, evaluation and extraction of precious metal epithermal vein deposits.

 

________________________

 

Market cap £1.05 billion!!!

 

You've heard of 'em now Frizzers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, I have met management at Silvercrest. Liked them. (They gave us lunch at The Savoy, darling).

 

I'm just a bit jittery about anyone who is not actually producing and thus generating cash.

 

SilverCrest is the next producer in waiting. Yesterdays news release stated they were expecting to have their production decision for their Santa Elena property in Mexico this year.

 

When they will be producing it will probably be much more expensive. I guess that's what makes a market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From the website http://www.hochschildmining.com/company/index.php

 

Hochschild Mining is a leading precious metals company with a primary focus on the exploration, mining, processing and sale of silver and gold.

 

We are the 4th largest primary silver producer*.

 

In 2006, we produced 11.6 moz of silver and 196 koz of gold which equates to 23.3 moz silver equivalent.

 

Hochschild Mining has over forty years experience in the exploration, evaluation and extraction of precious metal epithermal vein deposits.

 

________________________

 

Market cap £1.05 billion!!!

 

You've heard of 'em now Frizzers!

I've been following Hochschild Mining as well. FTSE 250 company which may well be the reason why they are not known (as against say Canadian and US juniors). You must be able to put this one in an ISA as well, so they are probably worth a look.

 

Good write up below.

 

Hochschild is worth perusing

 

Mining stocks have been among the worst hit by the market turmoil, with the UK sector down nearly 30 per cent from its high in early July. Stellar results by mining giant BHP Billiton on Wednesday helped the sector claw back some of the recent losses but there is still value to be had. We have long been fans of big miners such as Rio Tinto and Anglo American and remain buyers of both. Among the small-caps, we think Hochschild Mining (319.25p) is worth a look. The Peru-based company is one of the world’s leading silver producers. Its origins trace back to Chile in 1911 when it was set up by Mauricio Hochschild, a German immigrant, as a base-metals company. By the 1960s it had become one of the world’s largest mining groups, similar in size to Rio Tinto.

 

However, in 1984, the South American operations were sold to Anglo American. In the same year, Hochschild bought Anglo’s Peruvian interests, creating the foundations of the present group. The company listed in London last November, raising £270m. It aims to spend the bulk of the proceeds to expand its three existing mines in Peru and to develop fully another four silver projects in Mexico, Argentina and Peru. It said recently it is on track to meet its target to produce 26m ounces of silver equivalent this year. Shares in the company have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past two weeks and they are 25p off the original offer price of 350p. We can think of no apparent reason for the fall. Strong global demand for silver should underpin the shares. Buy on weakness.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cxequity126.xml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good write up below.

 

Thank you for that. They seem to be below most journalists' radar so any scraps of info. like this are welcome.

 

I backed up the truck for HOC during the recent shakeout and am well in the black which is more than I can say for my SLVR which has been red for what seems like months! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm looking to pick up some physical silver when in New York in a couple of weeks.

 

Thinking about ordering online, or a dealer...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×