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Sorry, but I think that is complete rubbish.

I'm sure that a month or so ago you were shouting about the Spanish doing just that?

Or do you mean that as of last week CBs are executing a U-turn on gold sales policy?

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Blimey guys and gals.....what on earth hit silver so hard?

 

$10.17......

 

I'm finding it increasingly difficult to be philosophical about my losses in Ag :(

 

Piggy was perhaps correct about a dead-cat bounce.

 

CG: What's your call on this?

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I am hoping to buy silver in a few months. I think the fall in price reflects the current bout of deleveraging that all asset classes are experiencing. IMO, this deleveraging is a temporary phase.

 

My main concern is not that the price of silver may shoot up within the next few months, but rather that I might not be able to even buy physical silver, which is increasingly in short supply.

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It's amazing to see silver drop like that when gold isn't !

 

it looks like a false break down/manipulation to get cheap silver by the big guys, market is a real jungle, check this out:

silver1011.png

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It's amazing to see silver drop like that when gold isn't !

 

I am getting very tempted to do another exchange. What are your thoughts Steve?

 

Gold/Silver ratio now 83.53

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I'm sure that a month or so ago you were shouting about the Spanish doing just that?

Or do you mean that as of last week CBs are executing a U-turn on gold sales policy?

I was more refering to comercial banks and governments: they don't have any physical gold anyway, I would say. For central banks, the selling is drying up. Maybe Spain is still on a Kamikaze course gold-wise, but who cares really.

 

The selling pressure is IMO naked shorting from the PPT and some funds liquidation.

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Silver's currently behaving like a commodity, not as money.

 

Good point.... and good buying opportunities ahead. But also makes me wonder, if the deflation scare in the markets gets bad enough, whether gold might also be sold off from time to time. I thought Gary Dorsch on FSN this week was particularly good in this regard.

 

As for the ratio, I am eyeing 100/1 also.

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it looks like a false break down/manipulation to get cheap silver by the big guys, market is a real jungle, check this out:

silver1011.png

 

Listening to some podcasts this weekend, you're not the only one who thinks the last bit of the weeks trading was 'typical' :rolleyes:

I think it was James Turk who said "the drop occurred after the physical exchange closed" :rolleyes:

 

I am getting very tempted to do another exchange. What are your thoughts Steve?

 

Gold/Silver ratio now 83.53

 

Well, as I've said I'm maxed out on silver, so it's not something I think about a lot.

Silver is certainly very low. I think if your % is still quite low, and you can cope with the potentially even bigger swings, then it looks like a good time.

I think if you go for more than say 30% silver you've got to have a very strong stomach :lol:

 

I do hope no one is taking the weekly closing prices as anything but artificial.

Unless everything is fixed :lol: :lol:

 

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Listening to some podcasts this weekend, you're not the only one who thinks the last bit of the weeks trading was 'typical' :rolleyes:

I think it was James Turk who said "the drop occurred after the physical exchange closed" :rolleyes:

...

 

Steve,

 

I don’t understand the significance of the price dropping after the physical exchange closed.

 

I took the opportunity to buy some silver from GM on Friday evening. Is James Turk suggesting that my order will not be honoured because the market was closed?

 

My GM account says the silver is ordered, the rate is locked and the order will be completed tomorrow.

 

Oddly, I bought at less than spot paper price.

 

£5.94/oz (including the GM fees). Lowest spot was £5.96 on Friday according to http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html

 

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Steve,

 

I don’t understand the significance of the price dropping after the physical exchange closed.

 

I took the opportunity to buy some silver from GM on Friday evening. Is James Turk suggesting that my order will not be honoured because the market was closed?

 

My GM account says the silver is ordered, the rate is locked and the order will be completed tomorrow.

 

Oddly, I bought at less than spot paper price.

 

£5.94/oz (including the GM fees). Lowest spot was £5.96 on Friday according to http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html

 

No you're fine. Unless you're ordering 'by the pallet', GM offer you an on the spot price which they honour even though they may need to buy the silver at the starting price next morning. If you want 'a pallet or two', they won't give you a price, but will give you the morning price.

 

That does not mean IMO that they won't change that rule if things become more difficult ie if supply becomes less predictable.

 

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Are they having shortages of big heavy bars, or just coins?

 

I'd be surprised if they had no big heavy bars.

I believe there are no shortages of bars. A good proxy for this is the buy price on goldmoney. They buy LBMA bars. only when I see that price dislocate from 'paper' will I believe there is a gold shortage.

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goldwatcher42ep0.png

w600.png

I must say this is a somewhat depressing chart for silver enthusiasts, and even makes me wonder where the enthusiasm really comes from for silver. Of course, I've heard all the statements about silver's potential to 'outperform gold' and in inflation adjusted terms hit treble digits, and to reach a ratio with gold of 35, which if gold got to $5000 would mean silver at $140 odd. And let's be honest, 'investing' in silver is somewhat speculative to say the least and for such faith one would certainly expect the sort of results laid out above to provide the necessary reward for the risk involved.

 

But this sort of chart brings some cold faced reality to preceedings for me; as someone clever said recently, one of those "ugly facts" which blow away so many unquestionable theories. Now, I'm not sure what the average house price peak actually was this time around, but somewhere around £220k iirc. If you read this chart and compare the current situation with the bust of the 90's a house could be had for c.15k oz of silver. If you take this cycle's peak and cut 30% ( a conservative view of expected peak to trough drop I think you'll agree) and divide by the most optimisitc outcome in this ratio, of a return to the long term 5000 (seemingly the ratio before this infaltionary episode started in the 70's, you get £154k / 5000 = c.£31. At todays exchange rate of c £/$1.70 which I can't see improving as all this plays out that makes £52. This for me is a maximum, as if you change any of the other variables such as a steeper HPC or a stronger ratio, say 15000oz, the expected price outcome for silver is lower. Indeed if you get a 50% HPC and a ratio of 5000, perhaps a reasonable expectation, you get £22 or $37.4 at todays rate. If GBP tanks a lot further against the $ of course the returns start to look worse still.

 

Now I'm not saying a 3 to 5 fold increase from here (uh hmmm $10 low...) is not an OK return under normal circumstances, but for timing your entry so right as to be buying at an average of $10 in order to hit these return rates, and for the rollercoaster? You decide.

 

For the record I'm still in :lol:

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I believe there are no shortages of bars. A good proxy for this is the buy price on goldmoney. They buy LBMA bars. only when I see that price dislocate from 'paper' will I believe there is a gold shortage.

Had you paid more attention then you would have seen my recent post with a statement of James Turk on this issue. Your believes today might be slightly different from what they are now.

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Listening to some podcasts this weekend, you're not the only one who thinks the last bit of the weeks trading was 'typical' :rolleyes:

I think it was James Turk who said "the drop occurred after the physical exchange closed" :rolleyes:

...

Otherwise they couldn't afford it!

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I believe there are no shortages of bars. A good proxy for this is the buy price on goldmoney. They buy LBMA bars. only when I see that price dislocate from 'paper' will I believe there is a gold shortage.

 

A low-brow observation I know, but all Kitco have for sale today is 1oz Gold maples (Olympic Edition), 400 oz gold bars and 1000 oz silver bars. Only a couple of weeks ago they had just about everything, including 10g chips, Krugs etc. It's all gone today......

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Had you paid more attention then you would have seen my recent post with a statement of James Turk on this issue. Your believes today might be slightly different from what they are now.

What so I'm supposed to sit by the computer waiting for you to post your thoughts, or at least make sure I've read what you've posted before I express an opinion. Were you trying to be obnoxious or is it just your nature?

 

Do you mean " your beliefs now may be slightly different than they were earlier today" ? If I see said piece and James confirms that he now sees some issues in obtaining LBMA bars then you may be right. I have a lot of time for James Turk, and if he is now of the view that there is a shortage and that translates as a premium to paper futures on Goldmoney then "I [will] believe there is a gold shortage". Alright by you?

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A low-brow observation I know, but all Kitco have for sale today is 1oz Gold maples (Olympic Edition), 400 oz gold bars and 1000 oz silver bars. Only a couple of weeks ago they had just about everything, including 10g chips, Krugs etc. It's all gone today......

I am sure the Indians and the arab gold bazars will ship their cheap below-spot gold over soon.

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Considering the big jump in the Euro I would have expected a decent jump in Silver in Asian trading especially after Fridays unjustified drop.

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