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SOLD half the remaining SLV shares acquired on the Low of the year thru an Option exercise

Still have a large net position, thru shares and $15 and $15.50 calls

This is money management. I am thinking it may be better to realize big cash than just sell Calls here

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Another way to play Silver?

THE GAP to SLV become so large, that Fresnillo shares looked irresistable

FRES.L vs- SLV/ Silver ... 2yr :

ndbA5Tr.gif

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MIND the CYCLE ... in SILVER

SLV is the etf for Silver (which closed at $16.46) / $15.53 = 106% -> about $1.00 difference

2cNEOWj.gif

Anyone see a cycle here? (haha)

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MIND THE GAPS !

I will show you one of my favorite gaps right now - and then explain it...

First, I need to SET THE TABLE...

As you might expect, there is a high degree of correlation between GLD (gold), & TLT (bonds). And even more with LTPZ (Tip Bonds).  It is clear in this chart

GLD -vs: TLT, LTPZ ... update : $140, -5.00, -3.65%, vs: $140 - 0.0%, $100 - 0.0%

VBU3QjR.jpg

Notice that... on Friday, there was a BIG DROP (-3.65%) in GOLD, but not in TLT or LTPZ. 

this is unusual. and the GAP you see there may be telling us something important.  The drop in GLD may be temporary, &/or bond prices maybe be set to drop

Q: Perhaps bond prices are finalizing their rise which will lead to a top that won't be revisited for some time to come

Sure it could go either way... or maybe the GAP will not fade.

Let me tell you how I will play this "narrowing", ie my expectation that the Ratio of GLD-to-LTPZ will narrow

Q: Will you go long GLD short LTPZ outright or via options?

Valid ideas, (though LTPZ is much less liquid than GLD or TLT.)  But I will do something else...

SILVER!  Or actually, SLV, which is the etf for Silver.  I have added it to the chart / update: SLV & GLD, vs: TLT & LTPZ

ds79E3w.gif

In fact, on Friday near the NY close, I bought $15 Calls on SLV: End-Mar. expiry at $0,77, and Mid-April at $0.91.

These are in-the-money Calls with a strike price below the Friday close of $15.53

Previously, back in mid-Dec., : I bought SLV Jan. $15.50 Calls at $0.48
A few weeks later, in three trades, I sold them at an average of $1.59 - for a 231% gain
(This is recorded in Real-time comments on my 2020 Tips thread😞

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Gold & Silver still looking good, after last week's selloff

GOLD to SILVER ratio recently hit a Record High of 100x.  I still like silver

Supported by rising Bonds (TLT), and TIP Bonds (LTPZ)

GLD vs.: SLV, / TLT, & LTPZ ... from 10.May.2020 : $154.16, TLT:$154.67 / SLV:$16.09, LTPZ: $80.67

zftskUN.gif

SLV to-GLD ratio got down to just 10.20%. Bounce or rally may be underway

gyeRgCt.png

Gold -toSilver ratio: At 95.27x , which is still very high

EAwh1Wm.png

GLD -toTLT ratio : 99.67% / For many months, has been swinging a little either side of 100% Ratio

M7KpwF3.png

SLV -toLTPZ ratio: 20% : down to a Low below 20% - Note the Cycle

WBh8rkE.png

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ZEROING in on Silver...

SLV... 10yr-L: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $16.18 -0.12 > 10.27% of GLD ($157.55 +0.06)

vwSce5y.gif

5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $16.18

44oh4Fv.gif

10d / Last: $16.18 -0.12 > 10.27% of GLD ($157.55 +0.06)

HsikBl0.gif

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On 3/14/2020 at 7:26 AM, drbubb said:

The drop is Gold & Silver stocks friday was one of the sharpest falls I have ever seen

SIL vs GDX ... All Data -W:  D :

SIL, Silver Miners Etf : $18.61 -3.84 -17.10% vs YrH: $33.75: -44.9%
GDX, Gold Miners Etf: $19.00 -3.31 -14.84% vs YrH: $31.84: -40.3%
Gdxj, Jr Gold Miners : $22.17 -2.50 -10.13% vs YrH: $46.42: -52.2%
GLD, SPRD Gold Etf : 143.28 -4.51 - 3.05% vs YrH: 159.17: -10.0%
SLV, Silver Trust Etf : $13.69 -0.93 - 6.36%  vs YrH: $18.35: -25.4%
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Notice the difference !

haha / Silver stocks now UP on the day! / 20.1359
    Change:+1.5259

Low of Day: $16.  We saw in minutes & hours, moves that sometime look years in the past

SIL-etc .... update

9MmpPH7.gif

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EA5Y4Gd.png

Let's see if the Gold-toSilver ratio continues to contract

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Gold still moving with Bonds.

SLV showed a big lag, & may be starting catch-up move. Watching the SOXX to SLV ratio

GLD vs: TLT, LTPZ ... update

FCMdM5d.gif

GLD vs SLV : fr. mid-march : reverse /  $159.78 / $13.92= r11.48 /

Gold vs Silver ($1700.9 / 14.94= Ratio: 113.86)

image.png

fr. mid-march : Reverse: vs.Favs /  $159.78 / $13.92

IORwZRQ.gif

SOXX to SLV ratio @ 16.06

aVUXzWz.png

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The G.S.R surely can’t stick out anywhere above an hundred for much longer. Few years back I remember some arguing 15-1 and other suggested 30 more realistic 😳

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Hmm.

Seems those calling for 30x or 15x ... should have said: 100X first

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