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Article from 15th September

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/15/silver-etf-holdings-idUSL1N0RG1L520140915

 

Silver ETF holdings set record high as price drop sparks interest

(Reuters) - Holdings at the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rose to a record high as a pullback in prices prompted long-term retail investors to increase purchases of the precious metal.

The tonnage of silver bullion held by the world's six largest silver ETFs increased by 104 tonnes, or 0.6 percent, to a record 17,135.04 tonnes on Friday, the latest Reuters data shows.

To put this into perspective the graph Dr Bubb posted shows that China Silver inventory for July was 148 tonnes where as the inflow into the ETF is 104 tonnes last Friday alone so equivalent to over two thirds of the total Chinese inventory. Silver is sharply down again this week so it will be interesting to see if the ETF inflows keep increasing as the prices decline which could then trigger a turning point in the price.

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Just bumping this excellent post again.

 

 

I am saying that if the TPTB manage to actually properly destroy this bull market -- as would be indicated by sustained lower prices like $11 for silver (as suggested not by me but the OP) -- then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression. As in a full on police state of capital controls with every price rigged and zero free markets. It s a frightening prospect akin to entering some sort of Dark Ages, but it cant be ruled out IMO

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The Fed must be pretty happy

 

The Ratio of Silver -to - Bonds, shows "the brakes are still on" for some commodities

 

AA_zps8ad9910f.png

 

Downwards pressure on Silver and other commodities, has "permitted" renewed pressure on Interest Rates (putting bonds higher)

 

TLT_zpsae2dc5ef.png

 

Will last week's "Bond Spike" mark a Turn ?

(Isn't it time, for people to shift from "high risk, low return" bonds to the "safety" of Silver?)

 

Some think, that the Turn is now in ... and the following:

 

+ The Fed's abandonment of the tough stance - soon, and

+ The Swiss referendum on rebuilding Gold stocks

+ Catalonia vote on Nov. 9th

 

Are leading to an "end game"

 

WORLDWIDE FIAT IMPLOSION: HOW HIGH CAN SILVER GO?

= https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lg-WBQsTtU =

Published on Oct 15, 2014

"It looks like the end game is possibly starting," says MilesFranklin's Andy Hoffman. "Bond yields around the world have now hit an average an all-time low. The most damning proof yet of QE failure is out there for the world to see. I don't think anyone is left that's actually saying "recovery" any more because it's obvious, you're seeing crashing commodities, crashing currencies, crashing bond yields, now crashing stock prices... the whole propaganda game is broken... The powers that be are LOSING CONTROL OF PAPER MARKETS." Join us as Andy also answers the question, "How high can silver go?"

Andy's site:

http://www.milesfranklin.com/

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Just bumping this excellent post again.

 

Just bumping this excellent post again.

Walktothewater, on 02 Nov 2013 - 9:17 PM, said:snapback.png

 

I am saying that if the TPTB manage to actually properly destroy this bull market -- as would be indicated by sustained lower prices like $11 for silver (as suggested not by me but the OP) -- then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression. As in a full on police state of capital controls with every price rigged and zero free markets. It s a frightening prospect akin to entering some sort of Dark Ages, but it cant be ruled out IMO

 

 

Right, the TPTB didn't get to where they are now and hold that position for 100 years by being easy to take over. This isn't a movie or a fairy tale.

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Just bumping this excellent post again. I would argue that the bull market has now been completely destroyed. If you still post here Walktothewater, what do you think?

 

 

Just bumping this excellent post again.

Walktothewater, on 02 Nov 2013 - 9:17 PM, said:snapback.png

 

 

Right, the TPTB didn't get to where they are now and hold that position for 100 years by being easy to take over. This isn't a movie or a fairy tale.

 

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It looks ugly now.

Every new low seems to bring a sharp drop.

 

No signs of buying appetite, despite the growing potential for a squeeze in Shanghai

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Yes, very ugly.

"10% if your wealth into PMs and hope it does badly." is not bad investment advice.

 

Gold:Sil ratio is now 75.

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I have mentioned this in other places, but why are the mining companies apparently happy to sit back and see their companies destroyed? Just about every silver miner in the world must be losing shedloads of money now.

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Just bumping this excellent post again. I would argue that the bull market has now been completely destroyed. If you still post here Walktothewater, what do you think?

 

Disagree that the bull market"completely destroyed". How do you figure this? Top at 1912 in Sept 11 hasn't even had a 50% correction, so maybe that's what's happening now, we go sub 1000 and find a bottom.

 

IMO either (1) this is a correction within a bull, perhaps 20yrs from 2000/01, or (2) PMs are telegraphing massive deflation across most assets dead ahead (fits in w what the Japanese did on Friday in seemingly panic), or (3) TPTB on cusp of finishing off a total alice in wonderful repression, no markets, complete central planning etc. in which case sell PMs and buy real estate

 

Whilst Im not happy, nor I am impressed at ALL with the chartists and technicians who shit the bed on this (when will they accept the charts are not natural market forces at work?), nothing in the last couple months has shifted me from the (1) camp. I say lets visit 900 and be done with the correction.

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Point taken.

But the drop in SILVER from $48, to near $16, is 2/3rds

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Thanks for the reply. Count me in on the number 3 option, we are at the start of decades of unparallelled financial repression by a rapacious banking and government cartel who are happy to destroy the middle classes.

You were the first person I saw mention the concept, what would convince you that we are on option number 3?

 

 

Disagree that the bull market"completely destroyed". How do you figure this? Top at 1912 in Sept 11 hasn't even had a 50% correction, so maybe that's what's happening now, we go sub 1000 and find a bottom.

 

IMO either (1) this is a correction within a bull, perhaps 20yrs from 2000/01, or (2) PMs are telegraphing massive deflation across most assets dead ahead (fits in w what the Japanese did on Friday in seemingly panic), or (3) TPTB on cusp of finishing off a total alice in wonderful repression, no markets, complete central planning etc. in which case sell PMs and buy real estate

 

Whilst Im not happy, nor I am impressed at ALL with the chartists and technicians who shit the bed on this (when will they accept the charts are not natural market forces at work?), nothing in the last couple months has shifted me from the (1) camp. I say lets visit 900 and be done with the correction.

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What is the point of using charts when the markets are rigged? Good point - except that people still do. In other words, if enough people do the same thing at the same time because of a trigger, whatever that trigger may be, best to follow the herd. Of course TPTB will ensure that there are times when what looks like a trigger turns out to be a dud but - by now- no-one should be unaware of how rigged and manipulated the markets are and accept that this is how it is nowadays..

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Silver awaits a sign of an upturn - could come anytime

 

Silver_zps9bb8a34e.png

 

RATIO ( SLV-to-TLT ) on Log scale

 

SLV-toTLT_zpsa6d5a965.png

 

Awaiting the usual "V" Bottom, I suppose

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From the Guardian on 22nd October;

 

"Oil baron Nelson Bunker Hunt dies

Texan built on his fathers oil riches but lurched into financial disaster with scheme to corner silver market

Nelson Bunker Hunt, a Texas oilman who once tried to corner the silver market with one of his brothers only to see the move end in financial disaster, has died. He was 88.

 

Hunt died on Tuesday at a Dallas assisted living centre after a long battle with Alzheimers disease, said his brother, W Herbert Hunt.

 

Hunt had been among the worlds wealthiest men. His father was the legendary Texas oilman HL Hunt, who left behind a multi-billion dollar fortune and set up Placid Oil, once one of the biggest independent oil companies."

 

Seems especially poignant given the silver market appears to be dead.

 

Perhaps his death will mark the low.

 

Kim Jong-il's death on 17th December 2011 created much hysteria in North Korea which peaked on 29th December, the day of an intermediate low in silver from which the market rallied $10 in 2 months.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/22/oil-baron-nelson-bunker-hunt-dies

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Haha. Since Kim Jong-il's death led to a rally in the price of silver (and the relation is clear, so I won't go into it), then the death of some formerly very rich old sponger will lead to another rally in the price of silver (another very clear relationship I won't waste my time to explain). :rolleyes:

 

Seriously, since I last posted here the price of silver has dropped by 20%. I think it can easily halve from here, since silver has gone up the 300% over the last 11 years, while inflation has gone up by 30% or something.

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I wasn't certain whether that last post wasn't a very subtle piece of satire.

 

There is only one factor that affects the price of silver and I don't know why people are still bothering with pointless and irrelevant things such as supply and demand and technical analysis.

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I wasn't certain whether that last post wasn't a very subtle piece of satire.

 

There is only one factor that affects the price of silver and I don't know why people are still bothering with pointless and irrelevant things such as supply and demand and technical analysis.

 

Thanks for your post, it just prompted a quick piece of analysis that strongly suggests that the principal factor affecting the price of silver is the price of GOLD;

 

GLDSLV_zps8c3e1800.png

 

Not that this should be news to anybody but looking at it in a scientific way always helps.

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Serious answer: so unbelievably manipulated is the silver market that the price has all but no connection to the actual supply and demand and market fundamentals any more. No-one can give a logical answer as to what is going on.

 

Frivolous answer: it was just 16 days before the anniversary of the death of Kim Jong Il and silver is now priced at 16 dollars and something. Silver will rally 10 dollars in 2 months.

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That was some move in silver at the start of December, over a dollar lower then a jump back up.

 

7120C9BA-BA38-4E68-9B5B-B9BF24C6471A_zps

 

The spikes in volume since the low have been larger on the up moves relative to the down moves since then. Is the market signalling a low there?

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Other than my share in the house, everything else I own is in some form of silver (mining shares, Goldmoney, Sprott Silver) except for the gold content of CEF.A

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