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It seems that we are contrarians here:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-25/gold-drops-toward-two-month-low-as-silver-slips-to-10-week-low.html

Silver Open Interest Reaches 14-Month High on Short Bets

 

... “The interest in silver is clearly on the short side,” Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. “People expect silver to trade weak going forward, as the fundamentals are very week.”

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SILVER - The Opening Gap, got "faded" two days in a row ... Three strikes may not happen


Three Day chart : Silver-update : Gold-update


silverFade_zps59815644.gif


Note how the opening jump up was sold off between 8:00-9:30 NYT (before the SLV opening) on both Tuesday and Wednesday. This means that SLV started the trading day, trading off its high, up with a GAP still there, acting like a vacuum. Does this selling pattern mean that Silver will not move higher. I don't think so, I think the selling is being absorbed, and SLV / Silver may be set for a move higher.


The SLV chart looks different - more bullish, I think ... SLV 10d-update : SLV-6mos : GLD-6mos : GDX-6mos


SLV-10d_zpsdc7335cb.gif


SLV remains in a reasonable position for a sustainable rise. A push above the 8d-MA on Thursday, may set the stage for a decent rally going into September.


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Does higher Silver need some inflation? Maybe

 

Interestingly, Dan Norcini is not at all bullish on silver:

 

Agressive Hedge Fund Selling Plagues Silver

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.de/2014/08/agressive-hedge-fund-selling-plagues.html

 

Oddly enough, the hedgies made a big push into silver in early June of this year so much so that they managed to build the largest net long position that they have had in nearly 4 years.
. . .
All I can say to that is it is one tall order! With 4 four months left in the year, inflation expectations had better change in one big hurry! Again, it is so tragic that people will run out and spend their hard-earned money and precious investment capital on investments touted by those talking their book instead of doing some hard-nosed, objective analysis of the markets.
. . .
When one looks at the various commodity sector indices ( I am currently using the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) they are hard-pressed to find the least bit of inflation in tangibles...
Chart20140822170324.png
Can things change in that regards? Sure they can! The one thing about markets is that they are always changing. For the time being however, one must respect the charts and right now the charts are saying that the notion of $50 silver before 2014 comes to an end is a quaint fairy tale, without some sort of stupendous event occurring.
== ==
OKAY.
Well, I am not touting $50 Silver by January... But I do think Inflationary expectations can begin to change soon.
Here's DBA (Agricultural Fund) vs. CRB ... update
DBA-etc_zpsc5fa7047.gif

 

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SLV -to-GDX Ratio - Ready to Soar ?

SLV. : $18.71

GDX : $26.69

Ratio : 70.1% - and E-wave a-b-c correction to 69% may be finished

 

SLV-toGDX_zpsf75236b3.png

 

 

SLV (Silver) - NY trading Gap now filled ... SLV-10 day : AGQ-vs-GDX / SLV-last: $18.70

SLV-10d_zps4adbe16d.gif

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Just for the sake of contrast, an über bearish view on Silver (funny how often 'elliot wave' and 'bearish' seem to go hand in hand) . .

 

 

from Elliot Wave Gold:

 

Last Elliott wave analysis for Silver (and GDX) expected the trend was down. It turns out this was correct, as it has been confirmed for Gold today.

Although the alternate wave count for Silver is not technically invalidated, I expect it should be within another couple of weeks. I will just present the one wave count for you today, with Gold, Silver and GDX all in alignment.

 

 

silver02sep14weekly.png

silver02sep14daily.png

For now minute wave v is incomplete. While it is underway no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 19.907

^ looks like 19.10 is the "line in the sand" for the more bullish scenario

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"Looks like 19.10 is the "line in the sand" for the more bullish scenario"

At $19.30, it is now well above that level

 

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif

 

Silver Update 8/29/14 New World Order

=

=

 

The Silver chart looks better since that Video was done

 

silver.gif

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What's associated with Silver peaks?


Silver Update 8/20/14 Peak Silver

=
=

Prior peaks were associated with moments of drama

"Silver is the equivalent of Gold"... but (may) lack Gold's demand profile

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"Looks like 19.10 is the "line in the sand" for the more bullish scenario"

At $19.30, it is now well above that level

 

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif

 

 

 

Sorry, that was a typo (as per previous post) ... should be 19.90. Anyway, looks like we are due a relief rally at the very least.

 

ScreenShot2014-09-08at111238am_zpsfde807

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Yes. $19.90 /$20 is of great importance

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Is there anywhere we can regularly check the Shanghai Silver inventory levels? Is the info reported to the general public or is it only certain people who have access to this information?

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I will let you know if/when I find out. Please do the same for me.

 

Here are some sensible words from Don Harrold, re the extreme bearishness among even Silver Bulls

 

Silver Sentiment

= https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZhaYCxrHRQ =

 

Don avoids Price targets.

"We are in a time of teeth-gnashing, and angst"

The laughing at Blythe is gone.

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t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : SLV-live

> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/pu...sgeen/index.htm

Calc: AG-Shang.: 4,167 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 677.6 / 35.274 = $19.21

 

SILVER price, Shanghai / OpenInterest - SGE

 

AGt+d : Price : Open.Int = $-eqv. : -SLV- : Prem% : Au9999 : AUt+d

10-sep : 4,167 : 5,264kS = 19.21 : ?? .?? : +4.0%? : r248.46 : 143.2.kL

09-sep : 4,150 : 5,281kS = 19.13 : 18.31 : +5.46% : r248.38 : 145.2kL

29-aug : 4,206 : 5,290k? = 19.39 : 18.71 : +3.63% : r255.04 : 142.1kL

15-aug : 4,250 : 5,097k? = 19.59 : 18.86 : +3.87% : r260.14 : 130.7k :

31-july : 4,298 : 4,977k? = 19.81 : 19.58 : +1.17% : r257.79 : 127.7k :

15-july : 4,322 : 4,700k? = 19.93 : 19.88 : +0.25% : r261.73 : 134.3k :

30-jun. : 4,272 : 4,319k? = 19.69 : 20.25 : - 2.77% : r261.86 : 142.2k :

30-may: 4,058 : 4,622k? = 18.71 : 18.08 : +3.48% : r252.80 : 139.0k :

=====

The $-eqv. price = RMB / 216.91 : ratio to SLV "should" be +4.00% approx.

==

> source: http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/sge_price/sge_price_daily/index.htm

 

Right now, SLV looks undervalued versus the Shanghai Silver price.

With Shanghai Silver at Rmb 4,167 = US$19.21 equiv.,

SLV "should" be about x 96% = $18.44, having closed yesterday at $18.31.

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SILVER STOPS are getting HIT ! - As low as $18.50

 

================
Gold / USD / china gold // gdx : n s a :
t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : AuTD0.png?id=11406031228
AG - T + D / Calculations
AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif: 3-days
> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/index.htm
Calculations:
AG-Shanghai : 4,200 RMB/kg (ct. is 15 kg)
/ CNY exch. Rate
/ 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (I observed a discount of about 20 cents)
==============

 

silver.gif

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Standard bank have released a report today and it talks about the Silver demand in China, it is slightly bearish but does mention there is a report coming out of China towards the end of next week with the Silver import data for August so I will look out for that and hopefully it will give us more information.

 

http://www.kitco.com/reports/CommsDaily_Sept122014.pdf

 

It looks like Chinese imports have been low and they have been depleting their own stockpiles rather than importing more Silver. The turning point in the Silver price is likely to come from the Chinese starting to import more Silver so I think these reports could be important. It does mention historically in September and October Silver imports to China are usually low but I am not sure if this has as much relevance as it used to as their stockpiles were much higher previous years but if this is still the case maybe the rally is another month away.

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THE LATEST SMASHDOWN - A Turn?

 

From Silver Doctors / Silver : $18.67 - $0.07

 

MP3 : http://media.blubrry.com/silverdoctors/p/content.blubrry.com/silverdoctors/911_Researcher_Tod_Fletcher_on_The_1.mp3

 

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

 

On the 13th anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy, Tod Fletcher of Consensus911.org joins us for a power packed show, discussing:

 

Latest PM smash as gold trades down towards $1225 and silver breaks $18.50: did the metals FINALLY bottom overnight Thursday into Friday, or is a capitulation crash coming on the Sunday night Globex session?

 

First signs of renewed silver shortage appear along with DOZENS of new FIRST TIME SILVER BUYERS contacting SDBullion to enter the market Thursday and into Friday- a sign the 3 year correction is ending?

The smoking gun that 9/11 is a Conspiracy FACT

 

Tod reveals his view on the MOTIVES behind the largest False Flag attack in US history- was it war, the security/surveillance state, gold theft/cover up, OR ALL3?

 

"Best physical demand since May... Many first time buyers entering."

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Silver Squeeze Video - just out

 

I think the potential for a Silver Squeeze is high.

 

GE-Sep14-AG-SlvLow-75pct_zpse6a74523.png

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iUTLPEyUyg

However, we need a reversal of commodity price deflation before anything can get started. The CRB cycle could bottom any day now. And if not, the Central Banks will be under big pressure to reverse the deflation which has hit the markets in Q3.

 

DATA POINTS:

SLV-Silver: Jun.27, 2013 L: $17.75 / Sep.12, 2014 L: $17.76 ("Double Bottom")

SGE Inventory: Mar.2013 1,143 MT / Aug.2014 103 MT (=2.9mn oz., -91%)

GLD-Gold : Dec 31, 2013 L: 114.46 / Sep.12, 2014 : 118.38 (Up only +3.4%)

CRB-Gold : Nov 19, 2013 L: 272.47 / Sep.12, 2014 : 280.61 (Up only +3.0%)

=======

Organ Interview : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwSiHBxm0c

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The Silver Sentiment Cycle — Turnaround Coming?

 

Filed in Precious Metals by SRSrocco on September 16, 2014 9 Comments
1972-1979

Silver-Sentiment-1-FIMAGE-1-240x180.jpg

 

2008 - 2014

Silver-Sentiment-2-1.jpg

According to the work of Gary Christenson, the price movement of silver over the past several years resembles what took place during the 1970′s, when silver shot up to nearly $50 in 1979. Gary provides some excellent charts showing similar silver sentiment cycles during the 1972-1979 & 2008-2014 time periods. The Silver Sentiment Cycle by […]

"After silver rallied to the then astounding price of $6.40 in early 1974, it crashed back to $3.80 and then traded sideways for 2 years. Less than 3 years later it had briefly traded at $50.00, due to a combination of inflation, debt and deficits, political issues, conflict with the USSR, fear, a market corner, and dollar weakness.

After rallying to another “unthinkable” price of nearly $50 in 2011, silver crashed to about $18.50. However, in another 3 -5 years, perhaps in 2017 – 2019, I expect silver will have rallied to $50, $100 or maybe $300 or more, due to a combination of multiple wars, unpayable debts, inflation, deficits, bailouts, bail-ins, massive “money printing,” inflationary expectations, QE, potential hyperinflation, considerable fear, currency wars, counter-party risk, political issues, derivatives, conflict with Russia, economic and dollar weakness, and the weakening or outright loss of the dollar’s global reserve currency status.

We know that financial television (and others) expect (hope) the S&P to rally and silver to collapse, but we must remember who pays the bills for financial television, buys the advertising, and supports the various fictions in our current economic and political environment.

Along with many others, I expect that silver will rally for the next 3 – 7 years."

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Perhaps a good time to start averaging in again? Soon, anyway. Or have we just seen another "death cross", ever so slightly.

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One thing we don't really hear anymore is "geopolitical risk". The world is so screwed up in so many places, it's easier to try and forget about the woes of the world, or so it feels.

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Bullish noises from Bill Murphy

 

"We are going to go quickly from the Outhouse to the Penthouse"

 

Bill Murphy: "Shorts are Petrified"

= https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPvIrM7_2BU =

 

Look out, when it crosses $22.

If Silver gets out of control on the upside, it is going to trigger a crisis...

Will happen sometime this fall

 

"From here to the Moon."

"Business is terrible... except the Big guys."

===================

 

Not many fresh ideas there - this one is more interesting

 

Bo Polny: Gold Will Be The "Greatest Trade in History"

= https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsXtGBR8Zm4 =

 

"$2,000 for Gold is the most likely case, BEFORE the end of the Year"

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Don Harrold : "We are Not at the Bottom... But I am buying"

 

DonH-Ag_zpsbd9fb073.gif

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iijtvxsOq2I

 

"My Target is $13-16... I think there are at least even odds we will get there"

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I bought a rather large chunk of silver yesterday, its not looking like good timing so far but as I am in the UK I was worried a Scotland Yes vote would hit sterling so went in for a larger amount rather than average my position down like I would normally do.

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"we are going to go quickly from the outhouse to the penthouse"

 

That's all well and good. But we may also be taken to the woodhouse, first.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/silver-s-etf-demand-outpaces-gold-by-most-ever-chart-of-the-day.html

 

Silver’s ETF Demand Outpaces Gold by Most Ever: Chart of the Day

By Luzi Ann Javier Sep 19, 2014 12:00 AM GMT
imMcRhuLlkBo.jpg

Investors in exchange-traded funds backed by silver have stayed loyal to the metal longer than those who bought gold.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows shares outstanding for the biggest U.S. silver ETF surpassing those for the nation’s largest gold fund by the most since 2006, when the iShares Silver Trust was created. Retail buyers are sticking with silver even as prices fell 4.4 percent this year, the most of any precious metal. Gold’s 2 percent gain wasn’t enough to halt declines in selling, and assets in the SPDR Gold Trust are set for a second annual loss.

“The perception is that silver will do well, and should outperform gold as the economic recovery strengthens,” Tom Kendall, the head of commodities research at Credit Suisse in London, said in a telephone interview. “Belief in silver’s dual properties, as a financial asset and also as an industrial metal, appears to remain strong.”

While money managers hold the least bullish bets on silver since they were net short on June 10, demand for the metal from solar panel makers is seen rising to a record this year by CPM Group, a New York-based researcher. Demand from jewelry and silverware makers will climb 4.3 percent, according to CPM.

U.S. economic growth will accelerate to 3 percent in 2015, from 2.1 percent forecast for this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 89 analysts. Signs of stronger growth helped push the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of shares to a record yesterday, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached the highest since 2010, reducing the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.

Buyers of silver are less swayed by price movements, because unlike gold, the metal is a “buy and hold and forget about it kind of investment,” said Kendall, the third-most accurate precious-metals forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the eight quarters ended June 30. “It’s not so actively managed by the retail crowd. It’s tucked away as a retirement store of value or hedge against disaster.

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