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One of the posters on 24k (azazel?) was saying that he took the coins into the pub and tried to get the other customers to get the bar staff to accept them. They are certainly worth having as a discussion piece, a souvenir and for possible numismatic value (not that I know anything about that) but the "proper" coins are the better bet in the long term.

 

Edit: Of course the 20 pound coins would become a lot more interesting if the silver price approached or exceeded 30 pounds an ounce.

 

but I sold 66% of my holding actually at $49.20, keeping only the phys. I'm letting that 'ride', hoping for $150+.

 

Wowsers, that must be one of the greatest trades of all time! :)

 

I even had a look back earlier in the thread and you nailed it to the day. This thread makes great reading, the parabolic move starts at about page 245 of this thread and should be read by everyone.

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Nice to visit those old pages.

 

re the 20 pound coin. The japanese once issued a 100,000 yen gold coin way back when. And it was a big mistake. The value of gold plummeted to under half that and people started cashing them in at the bank for the face value. Then a load of fakes turned up from the middle east and the banks refused to exchange for cash.

 

I think GBP 20 is not so bad, but if silver were to tumble, it would inspire a lot of fakes.

 

Worth getting a few and forgetting about them. Hopefully they'll rise numismatically. But I would stick to Brits and regular 1oz coins.

 

I enjoyed the aggro in trying to use them at the petrol station. But the general public are generally ignorant. It just shows you how fully incorporated into the fiat hegemony they all are. When, or if, this fiat world implodes, there's going to be people hopping mad as every asset they thought had 'value' turns to dust; stocks, bonds, real estate, cash savings, pensions, yachts, cars and fine wines...blah blah blah. Such events cause revolutions and dictators. For those that think the Japanese will go ape shit in the same way, I think not. They will just shrug their shoulders and say 'shigata ga nai', roll up their sleeves and start again working in groups... (at least I hope so). I hate to think about the UK under similar circumstances. Suffice, it'll be worse than Maslows hierarchy of grief or whatever.

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I've never understood this. If you buy 10 of the 20 pound silver coins at 200 pounds then you are getting 5 ounces of silver with a nominal value of 200 pounds. But if you buy 5 Britannias then you have 5 ounces of silver and still have 125 pounds left. Heavens you could even go crazy and buy 12 ounces for your 200 pounds. Apart from the potential for numismatic value, which I know nothing about, I can't see where the gain is in these coins?

 

That's a good point.

To put it another way:

The imbedded Silver call is far out of the money

 

But the call comes free, and so is good value

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One of the posters on 24k (azazel?) was saying that he took the coins into the pub and tried to get the other customers to get the bar staff to accept them. They are certainly worth having as a discussion piece, a souvenir and for possible numismatic value (not that I know anything about that) but the "proper" coins are the better bet in the long term.

 

Edit: Of course the 20 pound coins would become a lot more interesting if the silver price approached or exceeded 30 pounds an ounce.

 

 

Wowsers, that must be one of the greatest trades of all time! :)

 

I even had a look back earlier in the thread and you nailed it to the day. This thread makes great reading, the parabolic move starts at about page 245 of this thread and should be read by everyone.

 

 

You should check out the '$50-ish Peak in Silver Coming? Hunting the Top' thread

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14696&p=212977

 

The current silver value contained in the coins is £6.77 (0.55 ounce per coin) so I would expect to see a large expansion in premium and demand for these coins as silver approaches £36.36 per ounce. That's the point where the value of the silver in the coin approaches the fiat value.

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For those that think the Japanese will go ape shit in the same way, I think not. They will just shrug their shoulders and say 'shigata ga nai', roll up their sleeves and start again working in groups... (at least I hope so).

 

Yes, I agree with that. But it was always my fear that they would decide that it was "beikoku no sei"

 

I would expect to see a large expansion in premium and demand for these coins as silver approaches £36.36 per ounce. That's the point where the value of the silver in the coin approaches the fiat value.

 

That may well be the case but the person buying the Britannia would still have a nearly twice as heavy a coin that had cost 25 percent less, or 40 percent less if they had bought where VAT was not payable.

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(Duplicated here - for the record):

 

I Called the Top in Silver at $48-50 : old thread-Apr.2011

 

Now I want you to consider getting back into Silver !

 

TIME to start layering in some Silver positions?

 

SILVER BEAR versus Bull - from March 2013 - and how it went...

 

VIDEO DEBATE - JPMORGAN SILVER MANIPULATION: FACT or FANTASY? - Bill Murphy vs Don Harrold

==

Published on 14 Mar 2013

For years, JPMorgan has been accused of silver price suppression. Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee faces Don Harrold, founder of the Day Trade Show, in a debate on whether JPMorgan has engaged in this criminal market activity. Besides JPMorgan, could other large market players be manipulating silver prices? Could even the Federal Reserve and US Government be conspiring with others to artificially suppress precious metal prices? Stay tuned and find out!

 

On March 14 2013, SLV closed at $27.80, and Silver about $28.90 (x1.04)
Same old, same old from Murphy.
Don Harrold said: GATA is good because it "pushes the envelope".
But he does not believe that JPM engages in one-way (downwards) manipulation.
BM : "Silver is going to blow Sky-High... Prices are artificially low."
DH : "You ought to be waiting for lower prices... We should warn the public.
The last time I bought was at $28. I'm out of the trade right now... React to next move."
My target is $17.50 -18.50 on the downside."

Find Don Harrold online : http://DayTradeShow.com / http://www.youtube.com/user/DayTradeShow
Find Bill Murphy online - : http://www.GATA.org / http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com

 

Update: Silver Charts

 

Silver - since Aug. 2011 - peak was above $48 on Apr.28, 2011 / SLV: $48.35

Silver_zps649d4008.png

 

SLV / Silver etf ... SLV-5yrs : SLV-from-Jun.20141yr :

SLV-log_zps4d442540.gif

 

The Silver Low may be in place ("triple bottom at $18.17 / $18.72 / $18.61) , with inverted Right Shoulder forming

 

SLV-Jun14_zps0edc7280.gif

 

Or a retest of the Low may be needed.

 

I think it is not too early to start putting Silver / SLV / AG positions on.

 

I think whether or not the Timing is right may depend on DBA / CRB,

which I am now watching closely.

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It's TIME to Rediscover Silver - v.2

 

 

I haven't spoken or written much about Silver over the past 2-3 years. That may be about to change.
With Silver now trading below $20.00, and SLV near $19... It is probably Time to Start thinking seriously about Buying Silver once Again

I think NOW is good time to put Silver back near the Top of your Watch List, and start layering in some positions. You can do it, by purchasing silver metal, buying Silver-related etfs, or buying CALLS on SLV ... or maybe on AGQ, a 2X Bull etf on Silver. You can use a combination of these methods, with your choice depending on what is the easiest way for you to hold it - and whether you are comfortable with the volatility inherent in Options. I do think that an important element of your holdings should probably be in physical metal, or a good phsyical silver backed etf, like PSLV - the Sprott Silver etf.

 

Sym.: 12-31-13 : 08-08-14 : % Chg.
=====
Nugt : -- $27.41 : -- $46.66 : +70.23 % : 3X Bull etf on Gold shares
Gdxj : -- $31.05 : -- $41.83 : +34.72 % : Junior Gold Miners
GDX : -- $21.13 : -- $26.78 : +26.74 % : Senior Gold Miners
SIL - : -- $11.20 : -- $14.18 : +26.60 % : Silver shares
Phys : -- $09.96 : -- $10.88 : + 9.24 % : Sprott phsyical Gold etf
GLD : -- 116.12 : -- 126.19 : + 8.67 % : Gold etf
PSlv : -- $07.57 : -- $08.06 : + 6.47 % : Sprott phsyical Silver etf
SLV :: -- $18.71 : -- $19.19 : + 2.66 % : Silver etf
AGQ : -- $63.04 : -- $63.82 : + 1.24 % : 2X Bull etf on Silver
======================

 

GoldE-SLV-Aug11-pt4B_zps49106baa.png :

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PSLV is an interesting one to look at given it's premium tends to expand on upswings.

 

PSLV vs SLV

Premium_zps94ad4616.png

 

I recall buying it late 2010, on day 4 after launch, prior to the huge move up in silver. Premium to NAV is currently declared as being 3.95% on the trust website. http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-value/

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"Thats a big call"

Yeah, based on:

+ Seasonality : after August, it is very positive

+ Inflation : could be rising in the 2nd half

+ The long term trendline : it is on/near it Now !

 

BTW, I am not promising an immmediate Rally, but that is possible

 

An odd Gap: GDX (Gold stocks) versus AGQ (2X Bull on Silver) ... update : 6mos :

GDX-vsAGQ_zpsc5e50fa9.gif

 

A genuine opportunity perhaps?

I bought Jan. 2015 calls on AGQ - to go "long" silver, and "play" this arbitrage.

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Silver - A "Buying Buffer" approach

 

An interesting little video from Don Harrold, wherein he suggests awaiting DROPS of 2.72%

(that's $1.36 on a $20 Price), as a trigger to buy.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_inSIcy-wp0

 

It happened 44 Times in over 500 trading days

 

He compares the LOD with the previous day's close.

 

(I think I spotted a glitch in his system - but basically, he wants to buy oversold markets.)

 

He also talks about "waiting for 5% retracements"

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STACKING SILVER (like a madman?)

 

Silver-coins1.jpg

A cool $444K Worth - and here's how ...

 

> see drB's Diary, post #84: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19306&page=5

 

In reality, I see this move as an arbitrage trade, swapping from NUGT Calls (GDX) to AGQ Calls (SLV),

when the Ratio to SLV-to-GDX was at a "cheap" Ratio, just under 70%.

 

SLV-toGDX_zpsf2dee26d.png

 

How smart is this? Only time will tell... Time, and my Diary as I revisit the trade in the days and weeks to come. BTW, the sell side of the trade, selling NUGT Calls, realized a profit of over 200% on some calls. So some of my ideas do work.

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Complaceny on Silver. Then came China...

=

"Silver is still grossly overpriced. It's true that there is a lot of demand for silver from electronics (phones, tablets),

which didn't exist 10 years ago, but in the past the biggest demand for silver came from camera films..."

 

"Gross overpriced" is an opinion which is not supported by the facts IMHO

 

Silver film demand has fallen to a level where it is no longer a big deal.

The negative impact has faded.

 

Demand from new areas keeps growing. In addition to the ones you mentioned, there is medical applications, and solar.

The low carryover in inventories suggests potential for explosive price moves.

 

This drop in Inventories set the stage for the 2009-2011 Rally - this is per CPM Group

 

SilverInv-1_zps61d2cfa2.png

 

 

The rise in Silver prices, followed by a subsequent fall, triggered a growth in Comex Inventories:

 

SilverInv-Comex-Sm_zpsee9c4774.gif

 

Since then, inventories have fallen...

 

ETF-Securities-Silver-7.png

 

...Including in China:

 

Shanghai-Silver-Stocks-2013-2014-618x413

 

What Inventories are available are mostly in ETP's

 

SilverInventoriesAreMostlyHeldinETPs.png

=

The next Silver squeeze may come from China

 

"A reminder from David P. out of Europe that his target for the initial pulse on silver is well over $60 after the buy signal was recently triggered on the long term MACD below:"

 

KWN%20II%208%3A7%3A2014.jpg

 

a look at one of the incredible inflation charts from David Stockman:

KWN%20I%208%3A7%3A2014.jpg

 

> More on Stockman's call: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/8/7_Major_Buy_For_Silver,_David_Stockman_Chart_%26_Market_Turmoil.html

 

> http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?78547-Chinese-Silver-Inventories-Nearly-90-Depleted-At-Shanghai-Futures-Exchange/page2

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Silver Watch : CHARTS and DATA
Revised thread
=======

Silver Watch :

 

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : SLV-live

=============================

Silver Net :: $19.10 x 1.04: $19.86
AGQ : $63.50 x 4000 x 2 = $508,000 : 60c-Ja : $8.12
SLV. : $19.10 x 2500 x 1 = $ 047,500 : 18c-Ja : $2.15
SIL . : $14.40 x 2500 x 1 = $ 036,000 : 10c-Oc : $4.10
=============================
------------------------------ > $ 591,500

--------------------/ $19.86 = 29,783 oz
SLV charts: 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mo : 10d

=============================

 

World Silver Mine Production, 1998-2007 GFMS :
mar10h.gif
Silver Inventories, 1950-2009, CPM :
SilverInv-1_zps61d2cfa2.png

 

CHARTS and DATA
=======
World Silver Mine Production
Silver Inventories
History of Silver : Annual Prod. : Period Total
3000BC - 600BC : 0.75 million oz : Est. 1.8 Billlion oz
601BC - 1000BC : 1.50 million oz : Est. 2.4 Billlion oz
1001BC-1492BC : 7.00 million oz : Est. 3.4 Billlion oz
= Ancient Total : =========== : = 7.6 Billion oz.
= 1493 ---1930 : =========== : 15.0 Billion oz
= 1931 ---2004 : =========== : 20.1 Billion oz *see 2000-04, below
= GRAND Total: =========== : 42.7 Billion oz.
Yr : World-Prod : Scrap.AG : A.Gr.Stocks : St/Prod :
2000 : 587.3 Mn. Oz
2001 : 611.8 Mn. :
2002 : 607.4 Mn. :
2003 : 611.2 Mn. :
2004 : 613.6 Mn.*: 198.6 :
2005 : 639.7 Mn. : 202.5 :
2006 : 642.7 Mn. : 206.0 :
2007 : 666.1 Mn. : 202.9 :
2008 : 683.1 Mn. : 200.7 :
2009 : 713.8 Mn. : 199.7 :
2010 : 750.6 Mn. : 225.5 :
2011 : 754.6 Mn. : 258.7 :
2012 : 792.3 Mn. : 252.6 : 260.0 Mn. : 32.8 %
2013 : 819.6 Mn. : 191.8 : 199.7 Mn. : 24.4 %
=====
*Silver Inst., 2004 and after :

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Silver 'fix' ends after 117 years today as price goes electronic
Chicago Tribune-Aug 15, 2014 (from Friday)
The silver-pricing method begun during Queen Victoria's reign ends Thursday as the $5 trillion market shifts to a more transparent process and ...
. . .
An electronic, auction-based mechanism will replace a ritualized negotiation among a few traders that's been in place for 117 years. Silver becomes the first of the precious-metals markets to ditch a daily "fixing" procedure where dealers agree to a price over the telephone. Revamps also are planned this year for fixings in gold, platinum and palladium.

Coeur Mining, the largest U.S. silver producer, says changing an outdated pricing method will enhance confidence in a benchmark used as a reference for trading and valuing holdings. Since the 2008 financial crisis, regulators have uncovered price-rigging in everything from interbank-loan rates to currencies, increasing pressure on tradition-bound commodity markets from gold to oil to expand transparency.

"Everybody these days is worried that if something isn't totally transparent that there's going to be litigation at some stage if somebody's not happy with it," said Steve Garwood, a trader at Baird & Co., a precious-metals dealer in London, who first took part in fixings more than 30 years ago.
Silver pricing could definitely stand to gain from more transparency, following a century-old mechanism that involved three banks negotiating prices in secret.

The three member banks were facing lawsuits after accusations arose that they were manipulating prices, so it's no wonder that some are expecting a free market transition.

"It certainly isn't a free market in that case," said Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth. "Without proper price discovery you don't have a healthy market."
. . .

The three banks set the price Wednesday at $19.90 an ounce, up 2.1 percent for the year, compared with 27 9/16 pennies of old British money in 1897, when fixings started at the London office of Sharps & Wilkins, with former dealers Mocatta & Goldsmid, Pixley & Abell, and Samuel Montagu & Co.

 

For the first century, those conducting the fixing carried order books to a closed room each weekday at noon, spending about 10 minutes setting a price. The group's appointed chairman, from one of the banks, adjusts prices to balance buying and selling. From 1999, traders were permitted to check with clients by telephone to change orders before the price was fixed. Metal changes hands at the settled price.

. . .

Under the new system, participants will enter orders electronically to trade at a proposed starting price, according to Chicago-based CME. If there's no match between buy and sell orders, an algorithm picks a new price for a second round of bidding. Each round should last no more than 30 seconds, and those taking part will be able to see volumes of bids and offers, the CME said. Participants also will be able to see total volumes traded at the set price.

Coeur, which sells all its silver through or using the fix, says it expects the switch to an electronic system to be successful. Other than amending agreements to include the new reference method, there won't be any change to business, it said.


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Another Silver Bear : Nicole Elliott in today's SCMP
"Is Silver set to slide?", she asks
"When investors buy something because it is cheap, they tend to forget it can get cheaper . Spot silver could be about to prove the point... A drop to the $10 level is a real prospect"
She says:
+ Silver is "below the top of a sideway triangle, and stuck beneath a very long term resistance",
+ It is below a (falling) long term resistance line (near $21)
+ Below the "watershed level" - about $26
==
> SCMP, page B2
She did not mention:
+ Seasonal factors, after August is usually very bullish
+ The high level of commercial shorts (drinking the same Kool-Aid)
+ The potential Supply squeeze developing in China
==
It takes two (views) to tango (and create a trading market)
.
I reckon she is way too Bearish, as are many in the Silver market. And with the low inventory levels, especially in Shanghai, the market is very vulnerable to a Supply Squeeze, probably before the end of the year. And we could even see $25-26 tested... (and broken?)

 

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Q / Comment:

Before August 2012 the Shanghai futures exchange didn't exist. Now it has 180 mts (?) and you say that the stock is incredibly low and therefore the price of silver will go up??? How is that incredibly low???? It's 180 mts (?) higher than two years ago!! And from August 2012 to February 2013, when the SFE bought all that silver, the price first went up, and then down. At the end of the 6 months period it was where it started, at about $28/oz. (Newby)

 

A :

EXAMINE CHART CAREFULLY, and especially the Timing

 

Look at the prices - the big buying in China back in 2012 drove Silver prices up, hitting $34 as the buying

accelerated, and then delaying the deeper fall until 2013, when the Chinese started reducing stocks.:

 

SilverShang3B_zpsea6a473f.png

 

Since the peak, the rapid selloff has diminished global demand, and driven the price lower.

The second big wave of Inventory reduction in China, which started at the Feb.2014 peak, has driven

prices down to the same extent that the first inventory reduction did. That may mean that Global Silver

demand outside China, is strong enough to absorb China's destocking - that is bullish!

 

Because China inventories are now only 137.7 MT, I think it is obvious, they cannot go much lower,

and the negative impact of China selling MUST end, because Shanghai cannot go to negative inventories.

 

I haven't seen many other people in the West talking about this much (please post anything you find.)

And instead, they are making superficial comments about how "the Silver charts look bearish."

How could they NOT look bearish, with China reducing inventories by an average of 72.8 MT per month.

This rate of decline MUST end, or China will have zero inventories sometime in October.

 

I wonder how many chartists have bothered to investigate this important fundamental factor ?

 

Having dug this deeply, I have become MORE BULLISH after this finding. But I keep an open mind.

I am actively seeking more info on how the China silver market works, something I never examined before

last week.

=

> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19306&page=7

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Given the allegations of market manipulation, the cynic in me would be surprised if the price of silver saw any significant movement either up or down during the early stages of the new price fixing mechanism (absent a significant movement in gold) - any large movements up or down will just be seen as confirmation that the price of silver has been manipulated and invite regulatory investigations and lawsuits.

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You could be right.

The next two weeks are still a time of seasonal weakness, or quietude

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I already have a reasonable investment in silver but am very tempted to pick up a little more at sub $20 per oz given the price action over the last several months.

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Sure.

Personally, I believe the next seasonal upturn, which could start very soon, is likely to give sufficient lift to break the downtrends.

 

This would be likely to get those who see the Silver charts as "Bearish" to re-interpret them

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Silver SQUEEZE Warning ...

UPDATE: Shanghai Silver Warehouse Stocks Fall 24% In One Week

SRSrocco on August 25, 2014

While the Comex utilizes highly leveraged paper contracts to control the price of silver, physical metal continues to be drained out of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In just one week, total inventory declined by 24%. ... At the beginning of August, there were 148 metric tons of silver on warrant at the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In just three weeks, 29% of the total inventory was removed. The majority of this decline took place last week when 22 metric tons were withdrawn on Friday alone.

 

(What next?)

 

A Nice JUMP in Silver : +$0.12 so far // Shanghai : Rmb.4176 =?= $18.75

 

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : SLV-live

> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/pu...sgeen/index.htm

Calc: AG-Shang.: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount: about 20 cents?)

4176 /6.15 = 679.0 / 35.27 = $19.25 +0.25= $19.50 / 1.04 = 18.75

Check that number ($18.75) on this chart:

SLV_zps15937542.gif

Let's see if it can be sustained into the start NY Trading... and beyond.

(Don't forget: Gaps often get "faded".)

If it is, we may be getting an important TURN today

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I sorta nailed this one back in the days:

Gold-Silver-Ratio_GUESS.png

I think the jury is still out on this one:

Gold-Silver-Ratio_GUESS.png

These are indicators that silver will outperform gold, and I think gold's resurrection is only a question of time given none of the deeper financial issues in Europe (and elsewhere) have been resolved.

 

Call me Silverfinger!

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