SILVER

[drbubb]

Nice chart.

 

 

2014 looks promising for the White metal (and the yellow one too!)

[Perishabull]

Excerpt from Silver Phoenix 500;

 

"Silver Price To Head Higher As Cost of Production Forms A Base

 

 

Many precious metal investors today are troubled by the current weakness in the price of silver and are concerned that prices could fall much lower. While the price of silver could continue to fall a bit from here, it’s more likely we will see a higher, rather than a lower trend in 2014.

If we look at the table below, we can see the total three-quarters of financial metrics from my top 12 primary silver miners.

By adding up all the figures, we can see some interesting data points. For example, the top 12 primary silver miners recorded a combined $2.36 billion in total revenue for Q1-Q3, while their adjusted income amounted to only $1.4 million.

Thus, the average realized price received by the top 12 silver miners for the first nine months of 2013, was $24.58. Their estimated silver break-even turns out to be one cent less at $24.57.

Even though this is the average for the first three-quarters of the year, the group was able to lower their break-even to $21.39 in Q3. I don’t believe the break-even will be much less (and probably higher) due to the fact that the group sold 1.4 million more silver in Q3 than they produced.

Furthermore, the group produced 68.8 million oz of silver for the first nine months of 2013 while they sold 69.7 million oz. I highly doubt they will continue to sell more silver than they are producing for the next several quarters.

It is quite amazing to see that these 12 primary silver miners had $2.36 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2013 while only showing $1.4 million of adjusted income. The power of the FED is mighty indeed. The net income of a negative $554 million for the Q1-Q3 was due to the huge write-downs during the second quarter.

The Price Of Silver Is Below The Group Average Cost of Production

The current price of silver is $19.40, while the estimated break-even for the top 12 primary silver miners in Q3 was $21.39. According to Kitco, the average price of silver so far in Q4 is $20.76 or 63 cents less than the prior quarter.

I imagine we may see continued losses from the group in the last quarter as the miners receive a lower price for their silver and as stockpiled silver sales are reduced. However, there is a chance that we may indeed see a small gain for the group in Q4 if the by-product revenues increase due to stronger prices for copper, zinc and lead (Q over Q) and costs continue to decline."

[Perishabull]

Excerpt from ZEAL LLC;

 

https://connectpro58377496.adobeconnect.com/_a816688188/p2kjpz6nwwz/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true&pbMode=normal

 

"Silver Stocks 5

Scott Wright December 27, 2013 2154 Words

 

2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets. But if silver’s fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market.

 

Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland. Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool’s errand to the majority of mainstream investors. Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that’s down 36% on the year. It’s much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right?

 

Indeed the bloated general stock markets have sucked in a lot of silver’s capital. With the headline indices all soaring to record heights, more and more investors have joined the herd to chase the gains. This has left little room for alternative investments like silver, fundamentals be damned. And as a result, this metal and its associated stocks have greatly suffered.

 

The artificially-levitating stock markets aren’t silver’s only problem though. And certainly the biggest one by far is its association with gold. Sadly gold has endured a panic-stricken year that has devastated the entire precious-metals realm. The mass exodus from bullion-backed ETFs and an anomalous futures-shorting bonanzahave left mass quantities of blood on gold’s streets. And silver has been unable to avoid the splash damage.

 

It’s no secret that silver’s performance is slave to gold’s. It essentially mirrors the directionality of its big brother, with much more volatility on both the upside and downside given its smaller market. As goes gold, so goes silver. So until gold turns, silver will almost certainly remain stuck in its rut.

 

Fortunately gold is overdue for a massive recovery rally. Even with the rampant ETF selling, it still has incredibly strong structural fundamentals. It should soar on its own merits, but an overdue stock-market correction is sure to accelerate investors’ desire to put capital back to work in this sector. For a myriad of reasons I suspect gold will be the story of 2014.

 

When gold comes back, so will silver. And silver’s gains ought to dramatically outpace gold’s, like they usually do. Speculators are naturally drawn to silver in precious-metals uplegs, they crave upside leverage. And this metal still has its own strong fundamentals to attract in a more diverse crowd (indispensable industrial usage and essentially the same investment allure as gold).

 

Silver even has a leg up on gold considering the stability of its premier bullion-backed ETF. While gold’s flagship GLD ETF has seen its holdings fall by a staggering 40% in 2013, silver’s flagship SLV ETF has seen its holdings remain stable. This is an incredible show of relative strength.

 

SLV’s physical inventory happens to be at the same level today as it was at the beginning of the year (324m ounces). This certainly demonstrates strong hands amidst silver’s slump! And it points to what should be amajor boost to this ETF’s holdings once investors actually shift capital back to silver.

 

Finally once silver again starts to shine, investors will naturally return to the mining stocks. And they’ll return in droves to chase after gains that normally positively leverage a rising silver price.

 

And the return to silver stocks won’t come a minute too soon considering their dilapidated state. With leverage being a two-way street, the silver miners have been crushed amidst silver’s decline. This three-year chart of silver and Global X’s Silver Miners ETF (SIL) shows just how bad things have been for the silver stocks.

 

[Van]

Lagging quite badly behind gold.

 

I'm not convinced about a turnaround in PMs until I see a magnified move in Silver confirming the gold action.

[Van]

Still lagging very badly..

I know there's no reason why silver should always outperform gold, but if Gold is going to lead going forward, this is a marked shift in behaviour to what we have seen since 2001.

[Carlton]

Lagging quite badly behind gold.

 

I'm not convinced about a turnaround in PMs until I see a magnified move in Silver confirming the gold action.

 

Maybe today is a start: Au +0.34% Ag +0.64% as of this post.

Time will tell.

[Van]

+5% today. That's much more like it!

[huntergatherer]

Silver price rally will be short-lived.

 

Thursday , 20 Feb 2014

Silver prices have rallied 12% in February but, according to French bank, Natixis, the rally is likely to be short-lived.

 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-silver-news?oid=230065&sn=Detail

[Traineeinvestor]

A somewhat ambiguous view on silver: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/why-the-rally-in-silver-is-in-trouble-015435940.html

 

While it has to be acknowledged that the price of silver is at least partly dependent on investor demand, in the longer term i am more optimistic.

[Traineeinvestor]

A hesitant view on a bull market in silver re-emerging: http://www.marketanthropology.com/2014/02/back-to-bull-market-highway-for-silver.html

[Van]

Silver's been a bit of a dog in the last few weeks, hasn't it? While Gold has made a multi-month high today, Silver is still lagging badly. Pull your socks up, lad!

[happy]

for what its worth:

 

[notinformation]

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/03/david-morgan-silver-forming-the-most-bullish-cup-handle-possible/

 

David breaks down this week’s trading in gold & silver: David states that silver is forming the most bullish cup & handle formation possible, and joins The Doc’s sentiments that you do NOT want to be short gold or silver this weekend ahead of the Crimea referendum
Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/03/david-morgan-silver-forming-the-most-bullish-cup-handle-possible/#UmcLtb5QlBgE5mGB.99

[Traineeinvestor]

The problem with David Morgan is that he has erroneously called bull too many times to take too seriously.

 

That said, I hope he is right on the price of silver.

[Traineeinvestor]

Silver retreating to its kennel.

 

Could be back under $20 oz soon. :-(

[notanewmember]

Anyone in the UK might be interested in buying the new £20 half ounce coins.

 

http://www.royalmint.com/shop/UK_2013_20_pound_for_20_pound_Fine_Silver_Coin_George_and_the_Dragon

 

They are legal tender, contain fine silver.... they are VAT free.... and presumably like the Gold Sovereigns, are CGT free. Perhaps when Silver gets to £100 an ounce, these half ounce coins will be worth £50 intrinsic value!

 

If you buy over £50 worth, postage is free, so you exchange £20 for £20!

[drbubb]

SILVER CALLS ?

It does seem to be an interesting Time for "a flutter"... a jump to maybe $25 looks possible

(But do not consider this a recommendation - I am not so qualified - just sharing charts here)

 

SLV - 12 months ... SLV-12mos : AGQ-12mos

 

 

CALL Options

 

SLV Calls

AGQ Calls

 

SLV : -APR. : -JUN. : -OCT. : Ja'15 :

19.19

$20 : $0.11 : $0.50 : $1.09 : $1.42 :

$19 : $0.44 : $0.91 : $1.52 : $1.85 :

$18 : $1.24 : $1.55 : $2.09 : $2.39 = $20.39 / $19.19 = 106.25% // offer $2.41 / bid $2.36 : + 2.12%

:

Apr $19.24 / $19.19 = 100.26% / 6.00 prem./ 9mos = 0.67%/mo

===

AGQ : -APR. : -JUN. : -SEP. : Ja'15. :

64.96

$75 : $0.30 : $2.25 : $4.95 :

$70 : $0.80 : $3.45 : $6.40 :

$65 : $2.27 : $5.35 : $8.30 :

$61 : $5.20 : $7.40 : 10.10 : 11.40 = $72.40 / $64.96 = 111.45% // offer 13.30 / bid 12.00 : +10.83%

$60 : $6.00 : $8.05 : 10.65 : 12.00?= $70.00 / $64.96 =

===

Apr $66.00 / $64.96 = 101.60% / 9.85 prem./ 9mos = 1.09%/mo

 

They have TWICE the gearing - and may be great in a runaway Silver market.

But in a choppy market, they will lose value fast

[andrew]

Anyone in the UK might be interested in buying the new £20 half ounce coins.

 

http://www.royalmint.com/shop/UK_2013_20_pound_for_20_pound_Fine_Silver_Coin_George_and_the_Dragon

 

They are legal tender, contain fine silver.... they are VAT free.... and presumably like the Gold Sovereigns, are CGT free. Perhaps when Silver gets to £100 an ounce, these half ounce coins will be worth £50

If you buy over £50 worth, postage is free, so you exchange £20 for £20!

***********************

 

"They are legal tender, contain fine silver.... they are VAT free."

 

Do you have something to back up the VAT free statement as silver Britannia's have VAT charged on them by dealers and they also have a sterling face value.

 

Thanks

AB

[notanewmember]

Note: I am not a tax advisor. This is how I think it works;

 

I guess you are exchanging £20 legal tender for £20 legal tender and thus no VAT is applicable, and the silver is FREE. FREE SILVER!!! I don't get charged VAT when I exchange a £50 note for smaller units at the bank equal to £50.

 

When I placed my order no VAT was added at the end. If you buy 3 coins (Above £50 P&P is free), the final price is £60. But will people accept the coin as legal tender? Well I had planned this to be my emergency money, I could either sell the coins OR exchange them to more regular currency at the bank.

 

The Britannia is a £2 face value coin, so I guess it is the other way around - you are paying for the silver, and the £2 denomination is ignored (when really it should be taken off the final price for VAT calculations).

[andrew]

Thanks for that reply notanewmember

AB

[notanewmember]

The £20 silver coins are now all sold. BUT they will be striking another limited set with a new design

 

http://www.royalmint.com/pre-register/2014-20-pound-coin

[notinformation]

i am not that keen on buying anything with that parasites head on

[drbubb]

EASTER PEAK ? A possible commodities signal ?

 

This chart looks toppy to me. What is it? Think Chocolate

 

NIB / iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN ... update

 

 

...compare with some other commodities ...

 

NIB versus SLV/Silver and CRB ... update

 

 

== ==

Why did I look at this?

I read an article in today's paper, entitled:

 

"Chocolate Egg surprise for Easter is sticker shock" - SCMP

 

Consumers braced for further price increases as supply of cocoa fails to keep up with demand.

 

Cocoa may rally to US$3,210 a tonne on ICE Futures in NY by the end of Dec.,

the highest since July 2011, according to the average estimate of 14 traders and analysts.

 

The US price of cocoa butter ... that accounts for 20 per cent of the price of a chocolate bar,

rose 86 per cent in the 12 months to April 11... the costs of other ingredients is also rising.

 

Global bean production will rise for the first time in three years, reaching 4.1 million tonnes

in the 12 months to Sept.... that would be LESS than the Demand for a second year

 

(Demand / and in the future);

In Germany where per capita chocolate consumption is the highest in the world at 9 kg per year,

confectioners will produce 206 million bunnies for Easter this year, 8.4 per cent more than a

year earlier.

Pre-Easter sales of confection products at British grocery chain Waitrose jumped 14 per cent

from a year earlier...

 

Consumers in Asia-Pacific (are projected to) eat 1.1 million tonnes by 2018, a 27 percent increase

from last year.

 

...increasing prospects of an El Nino weather pattern, which can bring dry winds to West Africa.

[Perishabull]

3 years after the top...

 

2003 - present;

 

 

 

 

And in log for the purists;

]

[Perishabull]

Silver sentiment