Jump to content

Recommended Posts

IMG url location of image /IMG

 

You need to enclose the IMG and /IMG in square brackets [ ]

Thanks. It's been so long I had forgotten how to do it. Also have now discovered the wonders of dropbox public! Certainly been a long painful stretch in the silver market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's time to start getting BULLISH on Silver.

 

Punched through the 144dma with more conviction this time.

 

It will flatten out PDQ if we can hold station above it for just a couple of weeks, and even more from next month after the Apr drop falls out of the calculation.

 

silver.jpg

 

I see it as being slammed down yesterday on touching the 150sma the previous day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am still bearish based on the silver weekly chart and the long term trend which is currently downwards:

 

  • Red lines are fib retraces;
  • Green lines are fib fans;
  • Purple line is 10 week MA.

 

Silver is right on all of these and I think they will push the price down to $11 before we see the next up-leg in silver. I think we will hit $11 by February-March 2014 - depressing though that is.

 

 

silver-weekly-2013-11-01.jpg?psid=1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

$11 would be the end of this bull market. Gold would be what, $800? A few weeks at those sort of prices mean the debt and over-leverage problem is fixed, govts running sustainable budgets and new growth is providing employment and real wage growth. $11 silver would mean a definitive sell on pm's and buy the Dow, fund your pension, take out a big mortgage, etc. There wouldnt be a single mine left in operation anywhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

$11 would be a bit of a bargain! I wonder if we will really see that?

 

Oops - I ran that chart in GBP so I think it will hit £11 or $18 (again) before taking off. Mistakes like that are why my avatar is so depressed!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Oops - I run my charts in GBP so I think it will hit £11 or $18 (again) before taking off. Mistakes like that are why my avatar is so depressed, I am giving him a bad name!

Ok thanks for the clarification!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

$11 would be the end of this bull market. Gold would be what, $800? A few weeks at those sort of prices mean the debt and over-leverage problem is fixed, govts running sustainable budgets and new growth is providing employment and real wage growth. $11 silver would mean a definitive sell on pm's and buy the Dow, fund your pension, take out a big mortgage, etc. There wouldnt be a single mine left in operation anywhere.

Why would gold at 800 and silver at 11 mean that the debt and over

leverage problem be over? We have seen in the last couple of years

And months really, gold and silver manipulated/crashed lower. It doesn't seem hard for the manipulators to architect water - falling prices. I can see what you mean re. inoperable mines but I don't see the other parts so clearly. We have runaway stock markets ready for a fall. Maybe like in 2008/9 when gold and silver also nose dived.

I would see 11 silver as a huge opportunity to buy not the Dow but more silver/ gold. I don't see the relationship as everything fixed if we do see lows like that. Please explain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why would gold at 800 and silver at 11 mean that the debt and over

leverage problem be over? We have seen in the last couple of years

And months really, gold and silver manipulated/crashed lower. It doesn't seem hard for the manipulators to architect water - falling prices. I can see what you mean re. inoperable mines but I don't see the other parts so clearly. We have runaway stock markets ready for a fall. Maybe like in 2008/9 when gold and silver also nose dived.

I would see 11 silver as a huge opportunity to buy not the Dow but more silver/ gold. I don't see the relationship as everything fixed if we do see lows like that. Please explain.

 

A grind down to $800/$11 or worse and staying there for few weeks would represent massive and IMO unrecoverable technical damage. It would be an utter disaster for goldbugs. It would represent destruction of the "fundamental" case for years to come. If it happened the banksters would have other "successes" such as US bonds suppressed below 3% as far as eye can see, capital controls, bail-ins, and complete financial repression - i.e. all the present problems "solved". I'm not sure holding PMs makes any practical sense in that sort of reality. Perhaps you can buy food or stuff locally. But you really would be going hard against the grain of mainstream society. Thus probably best to go with the flow and take on a BTL mortgage etc. I think its unlikely but who knows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the bank and the governments will do "whatever it takes" to keep their games and livelihoods going...as they have been doing. I'm unsure that that means " all problems solved" however. I'm sure they would love to crash the price in order to take control of the real physicalarket from weak hands...or those who saw "technical damage" or fundamentals. Maybe it will be different this time and we should expect something outside the box such as a crash and then reevaluation?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Silver £

 

At this point in time silver needs to clear £22/Toz to be bullish in the next three months.

 

I am more Bearish/Neutral right now. If it drops below £12/Toz then look out for even lower prices.

 

It is great news for Jewellers who can get their hands on the stuff, they can shape it and re-mold it, and add value to it, and extract more margin. Just like in the coffee thread the beneficiaries for certain lower commodity prices are for people who need low replacement costs.

 

Gas prices have come down - but the 6 big energy companies love it right now, and they are raising the prices by some 8% - we as consumers have never seen any decreases. So lower commodity prices don't always filter straight to the consumer. There can be a disconnect that might never reconcile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not. You are aware that to mine silver costs more than 25 dollars per ounce for most of the world's mines? Sell at 11 dollars? :blink:

 

$11 would be the end of this bull market. Gold would be what, $800? A few weeks at those sort of prices mean the debt and over-leverage problem is fixed, govts running sustainable budgets and new growth is providing employment and real wage growth. $11 silver would mean a definitive sell on pm's and buy the Dow, fund your pension, take out a big mortgage, etc. There wouldnt be a single mine left in operation anywhere.

 

Edit: I think it is certainly not impossible that "silver" could trade at 11 dollars at some time in the future, but it would have been as a result of multiple rapid attacks where hundreds of millions of ounces of imaginary silver are created and sold short within a couple of milliseconds to overwhelm all of the buyers and jam price down a couple of dollars in a second, and this would have to be done dozens of times. There wouldn't be a single ounce of real stuff for sale anywhere.

 

How does this have any relation to governments running sustainable budgets?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not. You are aware that to mine silver costs more than 25 dollars per ounce for most of the world's mines? Sell at 11 dollars? :blink:

 

 

Edit: I think it is certainly not impossible that "silver" could trade at 11 dollars at some time in the future, but it would have been as a result of multiple rapid attacks where hundreds of millions of ounces of imaginary silver are created and sold short within a couple of milliseconds to overwhelm all of the buyers and jam price down a couple of dollars in a second, and this would have to be done dozens of times. There wouldn't be a single ounce of real stuff for sale anywhere.

 

How does this have any relation to governments running sustainable budgets?

 

Is my point really that hard to see?

 

I am saying that if the TPTB manage to actually properly destroy this bull market -- as would be indicated by sustained lower prices like $11 for silver (as suggested not by me but the OP) -- then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression. As in a full on police state of capital controls with every price rigged and zero free markets. It s a frightening prospect akin to entering some sort of Dark Ages, but it cant be ruled out IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From Mar-Oct 08, silver went from near 21 to 9. It was pretty shocking and premiums were high and supply was low but after a month delay or so silver came back for sale as usual. We all know silver has been cut in half again from 48 to present 21 but you can still buy silver ounces if you want to.

I really wonder if enough people care for there to be such a negative impact if silver were to be cut in half to 11? Surely just another buying opportunity for those who understand it?

 

I am not advocating a move to 11 just pointing out that it could happen again. IMO a great buying opportunity when/if many bulls had thrown the towel in. Remember the move after the 2009 lows, silver climbed to 48!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Is my point really that hard to see?

 

I am saying that if the TPTB manage to actually properly destroy this bull market -- as would be indicated by sustained lower prices like $11 for silver (as suggested not by me but the OP) -- then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression. As in a full on police state of capital controls with every price rigged and zero free markets. It s a frightening prospect akin to entering some sort of Dark Ages, but it cant be ruled out IMO

 

Yeah OK, your post read as if the mere pricing of silver at 11 dollars would indicate that everything was rosy again. What indeed is the hedge against 1984?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Real estate near Chernobyl?

 

I have to admit the fact that gold is being bashed and the restless metal is being ignored (even by its usual standards) is tempting me to start accumulating some more. The hard part is that it is (IMHO) next to impossible to do any kind of fundamental analysis on silver - meaning I don't see how I can distinguish between price and value. To some extent or other, investing in silver involves a leap of speculative faith that past price movements will repeat themselves at some point in the future (and before I run out of patience).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Thats looking to me like the beginnings of the mother of all head and shoulders!

 

That would make it like a scene from the Rocky films. Silver getting well and truely hammered against the ropes before hope sparks back into life and it begins to land a few punches on fiat. The current 2.5 year correction has been long enough for me, a symetrical H&S now would mean a drop to $8 over the next 2 years before a turn wouldn't it? and if that is corrent, is it possible to tell that an H&S is aborting?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×