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Well, I'm sure I've made it clear enough that I am all in now. My silver stocks portfolio total is now just over 8% down. It reached an intra day low of a bit over 20%. If we have seen the bottom, then I am very pleased with that.

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This looks near bottom to me... third time down, and slow grind down this time.... now for the slow grind up:

 

silv-1.png

My guess is:

 

Silver is not going up before the Greek election (17 June).

 

An austerity supporting mainstream party will win the election (or form a coalition) in Greece. 3 days later (20 June) the US FED will expand their QE programme or at least give a very strong hint that they are willing to print more. A temporary bottom in silver will happen around the 2 events.

 

There will be a really lasting 6 weeks maximum, the $35 level will be taken out in this really. The rally ends when the new Greek government announce that they MUST re-negotiate the previous bailout.

 

Silver will drop

 

By September the pressure on Germany will cause them to announce some QE. The amount of QE will fail to meet the demands of the printing cheerleaders and the market will continue to bomb. However, the actual start of the QE will cause the market to turn and we will have another temporary bottom. We will get another rally, maybe 2 or 3 weeks.

 

The rally will end when the market realises what’s really going on with the QE. Germany will insist the QE is used to buy government bonds in relation to their contribution to the ECB. This will mean Germany receives most of the QE money and Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland & Spain will receive less than they wanted. Market will drag down again.

 

Following the US election, BarrrickO will care less about oil prices and the FED will launch a bigger QE with the BofE, BofJ, ECB, SNB etc. This QE programme will send us off for a 2 -3 year rally.

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Well, I'm sure I've made it clear enough that I am all in now. My silver stocks portfolio total is now just over 8% down. It reached an intra day low of a bit over 20%. If we have seen the bottom, then I am very pleased with that.

Speculation......how much are you prepared to lose? Bets on capital gains hahahah

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Speculation......how much are you prepared to lose? Bets on capital gains hahahah

Most will be realised as cap gains since dividends are not huge in this sector by and large. I prefer return via stock buyback to dividend because you have more control over our personal tax situation.

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My guess is:

 

Silver is not going up before the Greek election (17 June).

 

.....

Wouldn't be surprised to see silver complete a bottoming process over the next few months... even down to say 25 from where it would then slowly climb back to the 40s over a good year or so. Then perhaps a spike on 'inflation expectation' in 2014.

 

The gold/ silver ratio - still relatively low - is also perhaps signals a bit more deleveraging.

 

gold_5_year_silversssssssss.png

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The Gold-to-Silver Ratio, and the Ultra Ratio

 

Here's Gold-to-Silver, expressed as...

 

RATIO: GLD-to-SLV

gldtoslv.png

 

And here's what I call the "Ultra AgAu Ratio", that's:

 

RATIO: AGQ-to-UGL

agqtougl.png

 

And maybe I should add the "Super AgAu Ratio"

 

RATIO: UGLD-to-USLV

37200017.png

 

GLD: $157.75 +$0.63 / +0.40%

SLV: $ 27.82 - $0.19 / - 0.68%

Ratio:

"Ultra"

AGQ: $ 41.75 -$0.56 / - 1.32%

UGL: $ 82.64 +$0.66 / +0.81%

Ratio: 50.52% /(H: 42.41/82.85 = 51.19%) (L: 40.24/81.04 = 49.65%)

====

"Super"

USLV: $ 25.35 -$0.59 / - 2.27%

UGLD: $ 40.42 +$0.40 / +1.00%

Ratio: 62.71% /(H: 26.04/40.50 = 64.30%) (L: 24.18/39.36 = 61.43%)

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Is Silver Currently Riskier Than Gold?

 

Jun 15, 2012 2:45 pm

 

The worst case scenario means silver between $13-$15.

 

In the silver to gold ratio chart, we continue to see a clear confirmation of the breakdown below the long-term support line. Simply put, the outlook here is bearish.

 

Summing up: Even though the fundamental picture for silver and the long-term case are bullish, the technical situation for silver is quite bearish at this time and its medium-term picture is more bearish than gold’s.

 

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/precious-metals-gold-gold-price-price/6/15/2012/id/41771

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Is Silver Currently Riskier Than Gold?

Jun 15, 2012 2:45 pm

The worst case scenario means silver between $13-$15.

Maybe.

But it is often true that there is a "false break" at the low.

Perhaps we are seeing that

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Wouldn't be surprised to see silver complete a bottoming process over the next few months... even down to say 25 from where it would then slowly climb back to the 40s over a good year or so. Then perhaps a spike on 'inflation expectation' in 2014.

 

The gold/ silver ratio - still relatively low - is also perhaps signals a bit more deleveraging.

 

 

With all due respect RH, I feel that silver is now a "constant busting flush", that is, when it raises it's head, it's gets flushed by the hedge funds. It's no longer below the radar.

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With all due respect RH, I feel that silver is now a "constant busting flush", that is, when it raises it's head, it's gets flushed by the hedge funds. It's no longer below the radar.

Who knows for sure, you could be right. Yet I think there's a strong case for arguing the long term trend for silver is still alive. Premissed on the following:

 

1] Silver leverages the volatility of gold [not simply a leverage on gold].

 

2] Gold looks clearly to still be on its long term track of appreciating around 20% annually.

 

In the short term I think you'll right where silver will bob around in a boring range [remember the drawn out doldrums in silver before it broke out and spiked]. So it may be a good six months or a year or so until silver builds up a bit of excitement. Then its off to the races. Putting in a bet?

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More DEMAND ?

 

Story is... that there will soon be Silver futures trading in Hong Kong

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downtrend resumed

 

20 target?

 

I have a 78.60% fib retrace at USD25.94, I think it may well hold there. If not, I will be with you between USD19.55 to USD21.38 ish.

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Silver Price Could Crash to $18 on Liquidation

 

Jun 22, 2012 - 07:27 AM

 

Silver prices meantime sank to a 2012 low at $26.64 an ounce a 7.2% drop on last week's close.

 

"We believe a break of $26.00 has the ability to trigger liquidation of silver with it looking for $18.00," says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35279.html

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Silver Price Could Crash to $18 on Liquidation

 

Jun 22, 2012 - 07:27 AM

 

Silver prices meantime sank to a 2012 low at $26.64 an ounce – a 7.2% drop on last week's close.

 

"We believe a break of $26.00 has the ability to trigger liquidation of silver with it looking for $18.00," says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35279.html

:-)

Liquidation. From whom?

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:-)

Liquidation. From whom?

 

It may refer to forced liquidation from leveraged traders. Since silver has come down to $26 a couple of times (and more recently quite close to it), there are likely to be a large number of stop orders clustered beneath $26. If those are set off during another downswing it could tigger a mini-cascade lower but I would be surprised if it went down as far as $18 in the short term, maybe $22.

 

Although I don't own any (and haven't for a while) I would prefer to see it hold at $26 since breaking that level wouldn't augur well for the precious metals complex, and I own gold instead of silver these days.

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It may refer to forced liquidation from leveraged traders. Since silver has come down to $26 a couple of times (and more recently quite close to it), there are likely to be a large number of stop orders clustered beneath $26. If those are set off during another downswing it could tigger a mini-cascade lower but I would be surprised if it went down as far as $18 in the short term, maybe $22.

 

Although I don't own any (and haven't for a while) I would prefer to see it hold at $26 since breaking that level wouldn't augur well for the precious metals complex, and I own gold instead of silver these days.

GS ratio is also suggesting a further wash out. A spike above 60 could see the end of this current down swing. Am hoping to convert the few ounces I hold at Goldmoney to silver once the ratio is above 60.

 

gold_2_year_silverhhhhh.png

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It may refer to forced liquidation from leveraged traders. Since silver has come down to $26 a couple of times (and more recently quite close to it), there are likely to be a large number of stop orders clustered beneath $26. If those are set off during another downswing it could tigger a mini-cascade lower but I would be surprised if it went down as far as $18 in the short term, maybe $22.

 

Although I don't own any (and haven't for a while) I would prefer to see it hold at $26 since breaking that level wouldn't augur well for the precious metals complex, and I own gold instead of silver these days.

How will you know when it has held 26 ?

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How will you know when it has held 26 ?

 

Well what I'm saying is that it just seems obvious (from a trader's perspective) that because it has held that level there are likely to be a large cluster of stops beneath that level. Of course we may never find out for sure if it doesn't go through $26 but if it does it might look something like this;

 

Stops triggered on gold from a Zerohedge piece back in Feb;

Gold%202.29.jpg

 

 

A very sudden unbroken move (ie a chain of orders being set off, setting off further orders etc etc)

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Forgive me but I did not ask how to tell if silver DID NOT hold $26. I could probably figure that out by looking at the current bid and deciding whether the number was less than $26 or not.

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Forgive me but I did not ask how to tell if silver DID NOT hold $26. I could probably figure that out by looking at the current bid and deciding whether the number was less than $26 or not.

 

I wasn't sure what you were asking, can you elaborate?

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