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Winners "V" Losers of 2011

 

(W) - Physical Metals vs (L) Mining Shares

 

Silver down 10% is not a winner

 

It is compared to the XGD or most Gold/Silver mining stocks

 

Winners - Those that know when to get in when to get out.

 

Losers - The rest of us.

 

Same as every other year.

 

http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-271109.html#p271109

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The Dangers Of Leveraged ETFs

 

For every dip, you need a greater rise to break even. The disparity is amplified by leveraging. If you work out the math, for 3X leverage, the rise has to be just greater than d/(1-3*d). So for a 10% dip in the non-leveraged ETF, it needs to recover by 14.28% in order for the leveraged ETF to break even!

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/309261-the-dangers-of-leveraged-etfs

 

Leveraged Silver ETF Plunges Nearly 40% from Peak

 

http://www.etftrends.com/2011/05/leveraged-silver-etf-plunges-nearly-40-from-peak/

So far, so good.

 

silver-9.png

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Kudos to you Roman, your timing there was very good. That'll look very impressive if silver gets back up to (and perhaps beyond) it's high.

Cheers. May take a year or so to break the high. If silver suddenly spiked to 50 sometime within the next few months I'd consider selling. Otherwise, will hold on for a couple of years for the spike to 100.... should we get it.

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ps. Like to put a rough guesstimate date on the G:S ratio forecast? 1yr/3yr/5yr?? Thanks GF.

You mean regarding the post quoted below? Should history really repeat in a time-inverted manner, we seem to be looking at 3.5(+/-1) years here. Personally, I think it could happen within the next two.

 

History might just repeat itself here - in inverse order.

 

goldsilverratio120106.png

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Or could go to 70 odd before heading down again. If the metal swap arrangements still hold at goldmoney, will think about swapping the precious for the volatile.

Yes, I might too if that occured. But I am not sure we will see the ratio that high again before we bottom out.

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Silver is just looking super bullish this morning, already up nearly a dollar on the day. If we don't see a sudden fall within ten minutes of the Comex opening we could easily reach 35 this week. Silver has also been correlating quite well with the euro recently, what looks to be the recent bottoming of the euro adds more power to the silver bulls.

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I'm looking at silver prices today and wondering why things are trading differently.

 

For example spot silver is down from yesterday, Comex is about level, a share like Silver Wheaton is down as you would expect being a streamer but Proshares Ultra Silver is up, iShares Silver Trust is up, etc.

 

Is there an arbitrage here somewhere? Is the spot price largely irrelevant as the Comex price moves everything? Is there usually an order to how things move?

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as pan American have bought out minefinders I was wondering if anyone had a strong opinion on the stock or if I should put the money into a different miner?

Oops, I actually hold Minefinders but had no clue. The stock price doesn't show it either, or does it?

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