SILVER

[Perishabull]

''if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again?

 

Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?''

 

What do you think PD? How long will we have to wait for 50 dollar silver again?

 

Well I'm not a fan of the Euro.

 

The Euro and Silver are quite closely correlated;

 

Euro in green

 

It could be some time...

 

 

This next chart is from www.sentimentrader.com

 

 

According to this chart (updated yesterday) sentiment hasn't been lower in the last 5 years however as the reading is a % it's worth noting the scale is only currently showing 30% - 90%.

[romans holiday]

Good questions!

I do hope the bulls who fell for his blatter will remember this,

and be more receptive to the many "voices of sanity", which were dismissed in the parabolic spiral.

 

Having said that that, I have bought fairly aggressively at these lower prices.

I note the lack of buying interest on the thread now, and regard that as a positive factor.

Wow, silver through the 27 barrier. My heavy buy order [AGQ at 40] was hit overnight. Will consider freeing up a little more bullion to buy a little more of this instrument in the next few weeks. 25 looks on the cards now, which is a 50% retracement, which would reflect the 2008 retracement from 20 to 10.

[romans holiday]

I am more on James Turk side, seeing no problem with silver hitting $70 in 2012. Of course it need not do so, but certainly we also haven't seen anything yet.

 

Silver is similar to gold as far as more and more of it ends up in strong hands given the weak hands panic everytime the price dips.

If it's at all similiar to the previous pattern, it may take a few years to see silver through 100...... before perhaps retracing to 50. One volatile Queen.

[Perishabull]

Wow, silver through the 27 barrier. My heavy buy order [AGQ at 40] was hit overnight. Will consider freeing up a little more bullion to buy a little more of this instrument in the next few weeks. 25 looks on the cards now, which is a 50% retracement, which would reflect the 2008 retracement from 20 to 10.

 

Could be some astute timing there, I think with those levered ETFs it really needs to be.

 

Are there not issues with holding 2X levered ETFs like this over time? (in terms of rebalancing required, lag, futures rollover etc)

 

Found this, you may want to check it out (if you are not already aware of these issues)

 

The Case Against Leveraged ETFs

[romans holiday]

Could be some astute timing there, I think with those levered ETFs it really needs to be.

 

This SLV (in blue) relative to (AGQ/SLV)

 

Just to show how AGQ drifts in terms of tracking the underlying 2 to 1.

 

Hey PD, I don't get your chart. I'm trading AGQ against dollars.

 

Is it possible to post another chart which overlays SLV against AGQ?

 

[Perishabull]

Is it possible to post another chart which overlays SLV against AGQ?

 

 

I edited my previous post (and deleted the chart) replacing it with something that explains it better.

 

AGQ in black against SLV in blue from August 2010 onwards;

[romans holiday]

I edited my previous post (and deleted the chart) replacing it with something that explains it better.

 

AGQ in black against SLV in blue from August 2010 onwards;

Awesome! Just waiting for silver to turn around and head in the other direction now.

[BlackPepper]

Silver futures - February 2011 to present;

 

Bix Weir's $6000 silver call looks even more ridiculous today, never mind at the top, if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again?

 

Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?

 

I think Silver is becoming Gold's ugly sister.

[romans holiday]

I think Silver is becoming Gold's ugly sister.

Before the decade is out, they'll be calling gold the King of cash..... and silver, the volatile Queen.

[drbubb]

Is it possible to post another chart which overlays SLV against AGQ?

Why?

It is simply 2x SLV

[romans holiday]

Why?

It is simply 2x SLV

Yes, it was more a correction of another misleading chart that had been posted earlier.

[romans holiday]

Could be some astute timing there, I think with those levered ETFs it really needs to be.

 

Are there not issues with holding 2X levered ETFs like this over time? (in terms of rebalancing required, lag, futures rollover etc)

 

Found this, you may want to check it out (if you are not already aware of these issues)

 

The Case Against Leveraged ETFs

I wouldn't do it with anything but silver. Time will tell.

[dunker1]

I wonder if major doubts are spreading amongst the silver bulls.

Quite obviously it isn't performing as expected in the catastrophic environment we have.

The ridiculous price quotes we have seen from all those with an agenda (Turk, Sprott etc.), plus the multitude of websites pushing the story- have no doubt suckered in a lot of people looking for riches and not just wealth preservation, it can often appear to be only a one way bet where there is absolutely no possibility of it going the wrong way, and anyone with an alternative opinion is regarded as a sheep with no understanding of the situation, could it be the gold and silver followers are the sheep ?

What makes me chuckle is when the PM's are crashing and people come along with their "I hope it plummets astronomically so I can back up the truck", I don't believe this for one minute, you can almost feel their pain as they say it through gritted teeth.

Lets face it, nobody has a crystal ball and has absolutely no idea how this eventually pans out, we are in totally unchartered waters.

[drbubb]

I wonder if major doubts are spreading amongst the silver bulls.

Quite obviously it isn't performing as expected in the catastrophic environment we have.

The ridiculous price quotes we have seen from all those with an agenda (Turk, Sprott etc.), plus the multitude of websites pushing the story- have no doubt suckered in a lot of people looking for riches and not just wealth preservation, it can often appear to be only a one way bet where there is absolutely no possibility of it going the wrong way, and anyone with an alternative opinion is regarded as a sheep with no understanding of the situation, could it be the gold and silver followers are the sheep ?

What makes me chuckle is when the PM's are crashing and people come along with their "I hope it plummets astronomically so I can back up the truck", I don't believe this for one minute, you can almost feel their pain as they say it through gritted teeth.

Lets face it, nobody has a crystal ball and has absolutely no idea how this eventually pans out, we are in totally unchartered waters.

 

Good comment.

 

I should frame it, and pull it out again and quote it in the next parabolic move.

 

I still cannot believe people were spouting nonsense like:

"Never, ever ever SELL your Gold!"

 

What's it for? If you have a huge profit (as at Gold-$1,900 or Silver-$48) why not cash some or all of it?

 

You can buy Calls with some of the proceeds, if you want to stay long.

[Manual labourer]

Good comment.

 

I should frame it, and pull it out again and quote it in the next parabolic move.

 

I still cannot believe people were spouting nonsense like:

"Never, ever ever SELL your Gold!"

 

What's it for? If you have a huge profit (as at Gold-$1,900 or Silver-$48) why not cash some or all of it?

 

You can buy Calls with some of the proceeds, if you want to stay long.

 

Or you could of sold calls at $48, or bought puts ?Hedging a long position this is just a reasonable pull back in a long term bull market , there is nothing un healthy about it?

 

Regards

 

ML

[stunlee]

I wonder if major doubts are spreading amongst the silver bulls.

Quite obviously it isn't performing as expected in the catastrophic environment we have.

The ridiculous price quotes we have seen from all those with an agenda (Turk, Sprott etc.), plus the multitude of websites pushing the story- have no doubt suckered in a lot of people looking for riches and not just wealth preservation, it can often appear to be only a one way bet where there is absolutely no possibility of it going the wrong way, and anyone with an alternative opinion is regarded as a sheep with no understanding of the situation, could it be the gold and silver followers are the sheep ?

What makes me chuckle is when the PM's are crashing and people come along with their "I hope it plummets astronomically so I can back up the truck", I don't believe this for one minute, you can almost feel their pain as they say it through gritted teeth.

Lets face it, nobody has a crystal ball and has absolutely no idea how this eventually pans out, we are in totally unchartered waters.

 

Very true

I would certainly consider myself a silver bull (at least in the medium term, the short term charts look absolutely horrible) and this move has certainly surprised me. Falling another couple of dollars would put my physical position underwater but that wouldn't really concern me too much. There are probably a few giggles to be had by going through this thread and checking some of the outlandish predictions made, the emotional reactions of some of the posters here make me think that we are already fairly late in the bull market.

 

Well gold is continuing downwards and it looks as if silver will break through the previous low from the 26th of September, the next target for me would look to be the lower trendline from the 2008 to 2010 trend, currently at 24 dollars. I would be truely astonished if it did break that, and I think that the physical price of the metal would start to detach from the paper price, something I noticed beginning to happen a week or so ago. For what little it is worth, I think next year will see a low of 24-25 dollars, a high of around 45 dollars and we should break the famous 50 dollar mark sometime in mid 2013.

[G0ldfinger]

I think I am going to gobble up some physical silver at bargain basement prices today.

 

EDIT: Paper silver to be had at EUR 20, but the real stuff only at EUR 31-34. This thing is really collapsing, isn't it? I mean, who wants paper? Paper, anyone? :lol:

 

EDIT2: OK, sorry, I found 2012 Maples at EUR 24, so, not too bad. Thanks paper guys!!!

[stunlee]

Yep, noticing the same thing here. One ounce Philarmonikers available at 24.60 euros but the larger coins are mostly unavailable. Those that are available have only fallen by about 6 percent in price in the last two weeks, despite the nearly twenty percent silver price fall in euro terms. Paper detaching from physical anyone?

[tinecu]

I wonder if the buyers at this new low price will demand delivery from the COMEX?

 

That would make for a very interesting January.

[Manual labourer]

Yep, noticing the same thing here. One ounce Philarmonikers available at 24.60 euros but the larger coins are mostly unavailable. Those that are available have only fallen by about 6 percent in price in the last two weeks, despite the nearly twenty percent silver price fall in euro terms. Paper detaching from physical anyone?

 

 

Possibly, or maybe the retailers have bought above market aka UK householders, and don't like the lower prices and are holding on!

 

Are they paying way above spot to buy from you or below spot with wider spreads! Somethings is only worth what somebody else will pay?

 

Regards

 

ML

[Perishabull]

The emotions of silver bulls and North Koreans are correlating 1 to 1 right now.

 

 

[/YouTube]

 

 

Surely this must be the low.

[huntergatherer]

Awaiting Pivot Low in Silver

 

Since its Sept-Oct recovery rally peak at $35.71, spot silver prices have stair-stepped to the downside towards a retest of the Sep 26 spike low at $26.02. If violated and sustained, this should trigger a final bout of long liquidation that presses silver into a minimum target zone in the vicinity of $25.00, but possibly into the $22.00-$20.00 target support zone, where I will be expect price stability ahead of the emergence of a sharp recovery rally period.

 

http://www.advicetrade.com/middayminute/Awaiting-Pivot-Low-in-Silver-201112281890.html

[G0ldfinger]

I wonder if the buyers at this new low price will demand delivery from the COMEX?

 

That would make for a very interesting January.

I buy bullion coins only. SHTF money. After all, I earn Euros...

[G0ldfinger]

The emotions of silver bulls and North Koreans are correlating 1 to 1 right now.

Hmm, maybe you shouldn't get all your information from the North Korean ministry of propaganda.

 

I am sitting here totally relaxed, sipping a Nespresso with the sun shining through the bay window, asking my wife whether we should go for Silver Eagles or Maples, and as an American she wants Eagles not at least also because of the "pretty lady" on the back.

 

This year silver has again shown what it is capable of during fairly civil market times. I buy now at a third off the high, which is an old all-time high from the 1980s!! No doubt silver will go times 3, 10 or who knows how much higher from here.

 

What was M3 in 1980? What was the average income in 1980? How much smaller was the world population in 1980? How much less solar energy was there in 1980? Etc.

 

Surely this must be the low.

It might very well be.

[azazel]

Hmm, maybe you shouldn't get all your information from the North Korean ministry of propaganda.

 

I am sitting here totally relaxed, sipping a Nespresso with the sun shining through the bay window, asking my wife whether we should go for Silver Eagles or Maples, and as an American she wants Eagles not at least also because of the "pretty lady" on the back.

 

This year silver has again shown what it is capable of during fairly civil market times. I buy now at a third off the high, which is an old all-time high from the 1980s!! No doubt silver will go times 3, 10 or who knows how much higher from here.

 

What was M3 in 1980? What was the average income in 1980? How much smaller was the world population in 1980? How much less solar energy was there in 1980? Etc.

 

 

It might very well be.

 

I was thinking philharmonics or maples. It was silver maples for me and unless this "correction" goes further, I may have nailed the bottom at £549 a kg. We will see.