SILVER

[G0ldfinger]

I really think silver is just getting started here. Gold $2,000 will catapult silver through $50 so fast that certain fund managers in Hong Kong will not believe their eyes.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/Gold-Silver_Scatter.png

[romans holiday]

I vote for option 3], leave it as it is.

Sure, but then the same old pointless squabbles between traders and investors/ savers will continue. By having distinct threads for distinct purposes and aims, there will be less of those squabbles where people are effectively just talking past each-other. Anyway, just a thought. A more congenial site will attract more posters.

[warpig]

It's been like this for 3.5 years, it really isn't too much of a problem, although I appreciate things do sometimes flair up. This thread will be quiet until silver gets going again, in the meant time, some trading information is useful to time buying the dips.

 

Sure, but then the same old pointless squabbles between traders and investors/ savers will continue. By having distinct threads for distinct purposes and aims, there will be less of those squabbles where people are effectively just talking past each-other. Anyway, just a thought. A more congenial site will attract more posters.

[warpig]

Sprott to Buy $1.5B of Silver Bullion

 

The silver price could explode higher in coming months.As the silver and gold price predictably fade ahead of option expiration, JP Morgan's bullion manipulation scheme could be headed for unprecedented problems, not from the record purchases of gold and silver from the Chinese, Indians or Russians, but from one Canadian billionaire.

 

Canadian-based Eric Sprott Management CEO Eric Sprott filed a follow up prospectus for the purchase of an additional $1.5 billion of silver bullion to cover expected demand for the company's exchange traded fund, PSLV.

 

Combined with the recent decline in the PSLV premium to spot silver to 14 percent from the typical 20 percent, along with Sprott's reported sale of some of its holdings of PSLV at the rich premium, it appears a familiar hallmark of a gigantic $580 million silver bullion purchase in December of last year emerges once again. Since demand for silver products at Sprott remain brisk, it should come as no surprise to the silver world that Sprott needs more silver.

 

“Today the Globe and Mail announced Eric has filed a short form follow up Prospectus for a billion five physical silver,” respected bullion market blogger Harvey Organ wrote in a Nov. 21 post. “holy jeepers, it could be approved in as little as two weeks people tell me, and he can trigger it OVERNIGHT without warning. Just bang, if he has got the orders. WE all know what happened with his last Physical Silver Issue, it was 580 million and blasted Silver 18 to 50 bucks in 5 months.”

[drbubb]

Possible options to make this site a more congenial one to all users could be:

 

1] Keep this thread with a buy and hold emphasis, and open another thread on silver with a trading emphasis. Problem then may be that there come to be too many threads.

 

2] Open up this thread more to ideas on trading silver, and move the buy and hold emphasis on bullion solely to the gold thread. That way, those only interested in buy and hold would treat silver and gold similarly on the gold thread.

 

A mistake I made early on was discussing the trading of silver /the hedging of gold etc on this thread. This only led to misunderstanding... as if I was not also interested in buy and hold, and as if my trading position, high-lighted here, had anything to do with my core bullion positions elsewhere. Opening up my own "Trading Volatility/ Silver" thread helped to avoid further confusion.

I think people holding a Core position in Silver (and there's nothing wrong with that!),

can tolerate some trading ideas here from time-to-time.

 

Holding a core, and trading another portion seems like a winning position, even in a long bull market.

Experts like David Morgan do that.

 

Holding all your silver "forever" seems much less sensible to me.

(If not "forever", then what's your exit trigger ?)

[drbubb]

Sprott to Buy $1.5B of Silver Bullion

“Today the Globe and Mail announced Eric has filed a short form follow up Prospectus for a billion five physical silver,” respected bullion market blogger Harvey Organ wrote in a Nov. 21 post. “holy jeepers, it could be approved in as little as two weeks people tell me, and he can trigger it OVERNIGHT without warning. Just bang, if he has got the orders. WE all know what happened with his last Physical Silver Issue, it was 580 million and blasted Silver 18 to 50 bucks in 5 months.”

 

So now, finally, they have fingered the reason for Silver's big rise.

 

I see this planned issue as a way that Mr Sprott can (again) cash in on the big premium that PSLV trades to Silver.

Let the sheeple beware!

(If you hold PSLV, you might want to think about switching into Silver- and some SLV calls- now.)

[romans holiday]

Holding all your silver "forever" seems much less sensible to me.

(If not "forever", then what's your exit trigger ?)

Surely, only the most miserable of misers would hold on to all of their silver forever [or for that matter, money].

 

What's my "exit trigger" for the bulk of my core bullion? Has to be when that bullion can be used for the purchase of a nice few green productive acres. 1/4 acre isn't quite enough for me.... though by only buyingless than I can afford, I've managed to keep most of my powder dry.

 

Even once I buy another property, I'd be loath to become completely illiquid. It would feel a bit like being naked in the current economic climate.

 

So to what end will you put your own massing of cash towards?

[Perishabull]

Sure, but then the same old pointless squabbles between traders and {speculators who think they} are investors/ savers will continue. By having distinct threads for distinct purposes and aims, there will be less of those squabbles where people are effectively just talking past each-other. Anyway, just a thought. A more congenial site will attract more posters.

 

 

1] Keep this thread with a buy and hold emphasis, and open another thread on silver with a trading emphasis. Problem then may be that there come to be too many threads.

 

 

I think the problem there is that would risk creating more of a divisive attitude between traders and speculators/investors.

 

Many buy and holders switched from silver to gold at the silver top, perhaps as a result of some of the posts on GEI on the $50=ish peak in Silver thread.

 

Key differences are time horizon, (short term / long term), and those who either consider both sides of a market (long / short), or not.

[drbubb]

Surely, only the most miserable of misers would hold on to all of their silver forever [or for that matter, money].

 

What's my "exit trigger" for the bulk of my core bullion? Has to be when that bullion can be used for the purchase of a nice few green productive acres. 1/4 acre isn't quite enough for me.... though by only buyingless than I can afford, I've managed to keep most of my powder dry.

Fair enough.

Then a key price you want to watch is: Land-in-Gold-oz (or maybe Land-in-Silver-oz)

[romans holiday]

Fair enough.

Then a key price you want to watch is: Land-in-Gold-oz (or maybe Land-in-Silver-oz)

Land/ gold is the one as most core buy and hold bullion is in gold.

 

With the US dollar hedge that's been maintained, I may manage to pull of the dollar/ silver trade I've had my eye on for a while. If that "trade of the century" eventuated, I may not need to dip into core bullion at all. The trade would pay for the land, and most probably put an end to concerns about [increasing] sordid money altogether. In that case, I'd then diversify the extra liquidity I had into various currencies.... or start donating to my favorite charities.

[romans holiday]

Sure, but then the same old pointless squabbles between traders and {speculators who think they} are investors/ savers will continue. By having distinct threads for distinct purposes and aims, there will be less of those squabbles where people are effectively just talking past each-other. Anyway, just a thought. A more congenial site will attract more posters.

 

Ah yes, but then in that case there needs be a third category besides traders, and speculators who think they are investors/ savers.... i.e; savers [with the liquidity preference] who think they are savers [not all savers/ investors are delusional]

 

I'd say the average "buy and holder" of gold has put a wedge of their worth into gold because they simply see it as a way to be on the sidelines, in an alternative currency, as all else deflates in value. This can be thought of as saving... though not sure about conventional "investing"... more like "dis-investment" [getting liquid]. It's all a matter of differing perspectives arising from different motivations, aims, purposes etc. No point squabbling over which is the "right" one, which would just be another form of purism. Better to give each its own dues, which is why we have separate threads, each with their own perspective.

 

Key differences are time horizon, (short term / long term), and those who either consider both sides of a market (long / short), or not.

Obviously, you can be short term bearish while being long term bullish, yet a lot of the storms in tea-cups arise from mixing completely different time frames in the same thread.

[drbubb]

MORE ON SLV OPTIONS pricing and strategy... (non-Traders/non-Hedgers can ignore this):

 

Yes I see where I was wrong. I saw the loss as the difference between $30.75 and $30.25 but in reality it is only the spread between the Bid/Ask because you could have immediately got out.

 

You paid $3.75 for something that was then priced at $30.25 which represents 12.4% (or 86.6% 3.25/3.75 both % equal 1)) is that average?

MS,

You are on the right track here, but you haven't quite captured the notion of "Time Value."

 

Think of an insurance premium. When you buy insurance on your car or house, you are paying for something that may or may not return money to you. If your house never catches fire, you will not be able to collect on Fire insurance. But the fact that you might get something back, when you need it means that Fire insurance is worth having, and worth paying for. And obviously, the longer the policy runs, the more you are willing to pay for it. A similar concept applies to options.

 

In this case, I paid $3.75 for an Option which had two components to its Value:

 

+ $3.25 for "Intrinsic Value": which was the in-the-money difference between SLV and the $27 strike

+ $0.50 for "Time Value": which was the extra amount that I paid to be protected from SLV falling below $27.00.

 

If the Time Value had been zero, then the $27call would have better in all respects than buying SLV at $30.25, and no rational person would risk $30.25, when they can get the same upside for so much less money.

 

I could have also bought a Jan or April $27 call, but that would have cost me more money. Perhaps you should look at the Options on SLV and get a better value for how they are priced.

 

/see: Bigcharts (SLV) : http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=slv&insttype=&freq=&show=&x=47&y=22

/see: Bigcharts (SLV-options) : http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/options.asp?sid=2305869&symb=slv

 

That's one method I use to keep track of prices.

 

If you had taken say $25.00 as your strike price would the bid price have been lower say $3.10?

Well, if the Call strike price had been lower then maybe:

 

+ $5.25 for "Intrinsic Value": the in-the-money difference between SLV and the $27 strike

+ $0.25 for "Time Value": a guess of what that "extra value" of Put Insurance at $25 strike

=========

= $5.50 Total Call Premium, if I have TV correct

 

I was reading a thing yesterday about covered calls on stocks v buy and hold. From the chart it seems the worse the stock does or slight improvement it is better to use calls. If the stock does really well buy and hold is better. Although I suppose you would argue you would use more calls as the stock was increasing to make a better profit?

https://www.borntosell.com/covered-call-tutorial/buy-and-hold

Here's how I look at it:

 

The more CERTAIN I am prices are at a Low, the more I want to own Physical Silver, SLV, or deep in the money calls.

 

The more I think we may be near a topping area in Silver prices, the more I want to take profit on my Physical Silver and Switch from SLV into SLV calls, "taking money off the table."

 

But even when prices seem very high, I may want to hold a Core Position + Options which add up to 10,000 shares-or-options, in case I am wrong and Silver prices run away to the upside.

[Jake]

Land/ gold is the one as most core buy and hold bullion is in gold.

 

Romans, Do you have a link for NZ Land/Gold, also property in NZ general. Where are the 'good' places/land. Can foreigners buy NZ property/land?

Thanks,

j

[romans holiday]

Romans, Do you have a link for NZ Land/Gold, also property in NZ general. Where are the 'good' places/land. Can foreigners buy NZ property/land?

Thanks,

j

No link for NZD/ Gold, but would be similar to the other ratios. Instead of 100 ounces buying a house, think rather of 100 ounces buying a house on a decent bit of fertile land.

 

I don't think immigration is a problem, and foreigners have been buying property. At the moment many Kiwis are moving over to Australia, where the wages are better. Good land all over NZ, green with plenty of rain.

[callmejoe]

Sprott to Buy $1.5B of Silver Bullion

 

Perhaps that is why MF Global blew up.

To stop Sprott taking delivery of his physical.

Better check he can lay his hands on the stuff before pushing any cash his way.

[kkeegan123]

Perhaps that is why MF Global blew up.

To stop Sprott taking delivery of his physical.

Better check he can lay his hands on the stuff before pushing any cash his way.

 

Did JP Morgan Just Convert 614,000 Ounces of MF Global Clients' Silver into JPM Licensed Vaults?

http://silverdoctors.com/

 

The plot thickens...

[warpig]

JT thinks we might shoot up to $70/t.oz given the half mast formation. Let's hope he's right.

 

 

 

[kkeegan123]

JT thinks we might shoot up to $70/t.oz given the half mast formation. Let's hope he's right.

 

 

Lets hope his right. Personally, I won't be holding my breath.

 

The manipulation in the silver market is absolutely blatant and disgusting, I'm hoping Sprott will give the Morgue a bloody nose, but I doubt it. The CME (den of thieves) have finally defined a SWAP (I thought they would drag that out for longer), so Frank-Dodds position limits should come into effect soon, but I understand from Turd that there are exemptions for the large position holders.

 

The rulebook has been thrown out of the window, how can TA be applied to charts that are painted by Blythe and her monkeys?

 

If they take their eye off the ball/allow silver to get anywhere near $50, the shorting pressure will be immense and the buying pressure will have to be staggering to punch through the resistance. If we can get through $50, short covering could drive it up to $75 though.

 

I just don't know, Warpig. I'd be tempted to bail out at 50, for a 4 x bagger and into gold for the long haul.

 

Yeah, I'm pissed, I shouldn't be because I brought all my silver in 2007, but it's the principle of the thing. Will silver ever be allowed to be 'let go' who knows?

[warpig]

You sound like me...

 

If you believe in gold, then you have to believe in silver, because of historical ratios. Silver will be hundreds of dollars an ounce, but silver demands patience. I'm riding the silver bull until the end, as I think it will be spectacular!

 

Remember, when the last bull turns bear...

 

 

 

I just don't know, Warpig. I'd be tempted to bail out at 50, for a 4 x bagger and into gold for the long haul.

 

Yeah, I'm pissed, I shouldn't be because I brought all my silver in 2007, but it's the principle of the thing. Will silver ever be allowed to be 'let go' who knows?

[drbubb]

Remember, when the last bull turns bear...

I have started buying again.

And am awaiting a chance (SOON?) to buy at below $30 - possibly "with both hands"

 

Some may be shaken out soon. But I am encouraging people to see that currency risks

may mean we soon have an ideal buying opportunity

 

Do not be afraid to learn about options, and use them!

[kkeegan123]

You sound like me...

 

If you believe in gold, then you have to believe in silver, because of historical ratios. Silver will be hundreds of dollars an ounce, but silver demands patience. I'm riding the silver bull until the end, as I think it will be spectacular!

 

Remember, when the last bull turns bear...

 

I wouldn't exactly say I'm bearish, I just can't see my way forwards.

 

I'm tired of these games, the red pill sucks and real life events are starting to trump monetary considerations, meaning Mrs JL has blessed me with a bouncing baby boy and her nesting instincts are strong.

 

Some metal will have to be converted to fiat for a deposit soon and I'm looking for an interim top.

 

I think a big plus for silver moving forwards, is that it may not be subject to quite the same heavy-handed, draconian legislation as gold.

[stunlee]

I'm tired of these games

 

Yes, they have been utterly ridiculous this year but are they really such a bad thing for the public? The manipulation has allowed people so many physical buying opportunities at good prices. The only people it really affects are the leveraged speculators but if they keep very disciplined there are also huge opportunities. Aside from a few losses made during the big end of September smackdown, I have made a lot of money from silver this year. Silver manipulation is a good thing for the small time investor and the disciplined trader. Long may it continue!

[50sQuiff]

I wouldn't exactly say I'm bearish, I just can't see my way forwards.

 

I'm tired of these games, the red pill sucks and real life events are starting to trump monetary considerations, meaning Mrs JL has blessed me with a bouncing baby boy and her nesting instincts are strong.

 

Some metal will have to be converted to fiat for a deposit soon and I'm looking for an interim top.

 

I think a big plus for silver moving forwards, is that it may not be subject to quite the same heavy-handed, draconian legislation as gold.

 

Just to play devil's advocate, some have argued that because silver is a strategic metal for industrial, energy and military purposes, it's more likely to be requisitioned if supplies become scarce. Personally I don't buy that. Governments will be able to monopolise new mine supply to take care of their needs.

[warpig]

Ah now I understand... bonzai JL has stepped in to the frame. I'm tired of the games as well, but when silver gets a battering I just focus more on gold, it's a distraction that seems to work.

 

House prices are on the edge of falling off a cliff IMO. Can't you wait 6 months to see which way the wind blows? It should be a tail wind for us silver holders... If you have to sell before then, I would probably duck out around $50 as well (to play it safe!).

 

Good luck!

 

I wouldn't exactly say I'm bearish, I just can't see my way forwards.

 

I'm tired of these games, the red pill sucks and real life events are starting to trump monetary considerations, meaning Mrs JL has blessed me with a bouncing baby boy and her nesting instincts are strong.

 

Some metal will have to be converted to fiat for a deposit soon and I'm looking for an interim top.

 

I think a big plus for silver moving forwards, is that it may not be subject to quite the same heavy-handed, draconian legislation as gold.

[kkeegan123]

Can't you wait 6 months to see which way the wind blows?

 

I'm trying Warpig, but the force is strong in Mrs JL. Even my powers of persuasion may not be enough. Fortunately, Mrs JL is extremely picky in regards to her nest, so I'm thinking 6 months minimum.