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Thanks for this.

 

I had reminded you repeatedly for the past few weeks that today would be an option expiration on the Comex.

...

But the direction for most option expirations is down, and the momentum traders are playing it. If enough of them jump in short ahead of time, it could go up because manipulation has no friends, but normally it is a period of retracement.

 

That big run up on Sunday night seemed odd, like a setup. It is easier to run something up on thin volumes, and then smack it down hard, gaining momentum as it were as fellows lift their trailing stops. This is a very calucated bear raid.

 

Net Asset Value of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Predictable Expiration Action

 

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/04/net-asset-value-of-certain-precious.html

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I am amazed at the negative sentiment towards silver. Everyone has sold or is selling. Look at the headlines on the

kitcosilver page:

 

Comex Gold Ends Weaker on Profit Taking; Silver Takes Bigger Downside

Hit as Bulls Tire - Kitco News, Apr 26 2011 2:14PM

 

Silver, Gold Prices Retreat Off Highs - The Street, Apr 26 2011 2:31PM

 

'I'm Out Of My Speculative Silver Position' - David Morgan - Kitco

News, Apr 26 2011 1:35PM

 

Silver Bulls Become Exhausted at Higher Price Levels - Kitco News, Apr

26 2011 10:28AM

 

Be Cautious Investing In Silver At This Point - Kitco News, Apr 25 2011 6:24PM

 

Kitco Audio: Are we in for a Big Silver Correction? - by Al Korelin ,

Apr 26 2011 3:13PM

 

Silver - Key Intra-Day Reversal - by Puru Saxena , Apr 26 2011 9:36AM

 

I've never known such anti-silver sentiment. Even from the silver bugs.

 

What happens if it confounds everyone and turns higher? Do they all buy back in? Do they stand there and look like fools cos they said sell?

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I've never known such anti-silver sentiment. Even from the silver bugs.

 

What happens if it confounds everyone and turns higher? Do they all buy back in? Do they stand there and look like fools cos they said sell?

Very interesting indeed. I would not exclude it going higher after a short consolidation.

 

Personally, I had to reduce my holdings a bit (as mentioned earlier, I am G0ldfinger after all... :unsure:), but I am still holding more silver (in value) than gold, which obviously has a lot to do with recent price action.

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I am amazed at the negative sentiment towards silver. Everyone has sold or is selling. Look at the headlines on the

kitcosilver page:

 

'I'm Out Of My Speculative Silver Position' - David Morgan - Kitco

News, Apr 26 2011 1:35PM

 

 

What happens if it confounds everyone and turns higher? Do they all buy back in? Do they stand there and look like fools cos they said sell?

 

I thought David Morgan was the Jim Sinclair of silver?...mind you he's only talking about a spec position. Personally I haven't sold an ounce of physical, I bought puts on SLV at $47 and I also have puts on SLW, with a 50/50 weighting between the two.

 

image002+%25281%2529.gif

 

Some inexperienced futures traders on another forum were buying futures contracts at $48+, having never traded the contract before... When I see people jump into an unknown market on impulse for fear of missing out, that's a sure sign of extreme sentiment.

 

Although I'm hedged for a very serious correction, probably the more likely scenario is a correction to a more sustainable trend ($41?), that might work off the extreme sentiment condition.

 

Screenshot2011-04-26at223651.png

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If all this short termism is getting you down, try viewing tonight's installment of "A History of Celtic Britain" from 17 minutes in.

 

You'll see Neil Oliver handling a Roman silver denarius from the second century AD. He says at the time it would have been worth £100 in today's money. Before it became debased by addition of base metal, it contained just 4.5 grams of silver. You'd need about 7.3 of these to make a troy ounce of silver. That means the Romans would have valued an ounce of silver at about £730. At the time there were about 3 million people in Britain. Today there are 61 million. Doubtless there is more silver above ground today, but then again, there are many, many more people.

 

Another way to look at this. That coin is a little larger than a gold half sovereign (3.7g). Today a gold half sovereign sells for about £112 - roughly the value the romans would have ascribed to the same weight of silver. Yet gold is today valued at 30 times silver. If Romans attributed a similar multiple, half sovereigns would be worth £3000 a piece to a Roman form the second century.

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I am amazed at the negative sentiment towards silver. Everyone has sold or is selling.

 

I've never known such anti-silver sentiment. Even from the silver bugs.

 

What happens if it confounds everyone and turns higher? Do they all buy back in? Do they stand there and look like fools cos they said sell?

It was option expiry day today so we should expect, if the usual pattern materialises, an upturn by the end of the week, followed by a second attack of $50 next week.

 

 

I have noticed in the past that sometimes the cartel have another go on the day following OE day, so we could see a lower low tomorrow but should be moving higher on Thursday and Friday.

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If all this short termism is getting you down, try viewing tonight's installment of "A History of Celtic Britain" from 17 minutes in.

 

You'll see Neil Oliver handling a Roman silver denarius from the second century AD. He says at the time it would have been worth £100 in today's money. Before it became debased by addition of base metal, it contained just 4.5 grams of silver. You'd need about 7.3 of these to make a troy ounce of silver. That means the Romans would have valued an ounce of silver at about £730. At the time there were about 3 million people in Britain. Today there are 61 million. Doubtless there is more silver above ground today, but then again, there are many, many more people.

 

Another way to look at this. That coin is a little larger than a gold half sovereign (3.7g). Today a gold half sovereign sells for about £112 - roughly the value the romans would have ascribed to the same weight of silver. Yet gold is today valued at 30 times silver. If Romans attributed a similar multiple, half sovereigns would be worth £3000 a piece to a Roman form the second century.

 

Interesting. There is a blacksmiths forge near me that is powered by water and they made tools for agriculture. I learnt that the wage for a skilled blacksmith around 1850-1900 was 7 shillings for a 6 day week which is just over an ounce of silver. In todays money, that puts silver at £500 an ounce?

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Interesting. There is a blacksmiths forge near me that is powered by water and they made tools for agriculture. I learnt that the wage for a skilled blacksmith around 1850-1900 was 7 shillings for a 6 day week which is just over an ounce of silver. In todays money, that puts silver at £500 an ounce?

I have heard a denarius was about a day's wage for a labourer; so i guess between £50-75. That's around 4g,

so £15-20 per gram. Interesting.

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I have heard a denarius was about a day's wage for a labourer; so I guess between £50-75. That's around 4g,

so £15-20 per gram. Interesting.

A silver dollar - currently $46 - used to be a day's wage for an American worker.

 

Don't know what median US day's wage is today. But guess it's over $100. Problem is it's hard to work out now, with the black market economy and all the taxes one pays, what an average day's wage is. Do you measure it before or after take-home pay? Do you include non-manufacturing?

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When a large US metals dealer emails you to offer to BUY product OVER SPOT !!!!

 

“APMEX Wants To Buy Your U.S. Mint Products! Dear Jack,

 

Due to the recent incredible demand for Gold and Silver bullion products, APMEX would like to offer you an exclusive opportunity to LOCK IN YOUR PRICES and sell us some of your U.S. Mint collection. This is a limited time offer and it is first come, first served until we have secured enough U.S. Mint bullion products to meet our current demand!

 

“We Want These Products:

 

We will pay you $38.00 over the current spot price of Gold for your Gold American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!

 

We will pay you $3.00 over the current spot price of Silver for your Silver American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!

 

We will pay you $1,250.00 for your 2010 America The Beautiful 5 oz. Silver coin sets. “

 

To me this is one of those small but significant signals that many big financial analysts miss. The key here if you have ever sold gold or silver is you usually get right about spot price. Be it eagles or generic rounds or what ever, each class has a spot price.

 

http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/

double post

 

 

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When a large US metals dealer emails you to offer to BUY product OVER SPOT !!!!

 

 

double post

 

 

 

They must be flooded with enquiries and can perhaps see a mania beginning to develop...

 

 

This is a comparison of Google searches in the US for both "Gold bullion" and "Silver bullion"

Screenshot2011-04-28at060854.png

 

The searches have risen up to the level where they were of October 2008.

 

And here is what happened from October 2008 onwards;

 

Screenshot2011-04-28at061126.png

 

That was a low in silver

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Mish swaps silver for gold - Cautious of parabolic move

 

Taking Silver Profits - Swapping Silver for Gold

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DOUBLE POST

 

I guess it really depends when JPM is forced to start to cover their short position.

I mean, it is really hard to comprehend that the silver shoot up so far has NOT been a short squeeze (see e.g. Dan Norcini's blog).

 

If gold continues to rise, and silver does too in sympathy, then we could see a squeeze coming. I think we'd see silver $200/oz in that case, and I mean short term, this year. But the JPMorgue will throw the sink at silver to prevent this. In fact, they're doing so already.

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A Day's Wage for a Silver Dime:

Fact or Fiction?

 

David Zurbuchen

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/zurbuchen120405.html

 

Silver (pre 1920) 3d coin (3/240 of a pound) now worth more than 1£

 

2p worth more than 4p as scrap; the old penny more than a shilling (5p)

 

 

The circulating currency is a part of the inflation con

 

The smallest coin in Victorian times was the farthing - worth approx 8p in today's currency.

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I am amazed at the negative sentiment towards silver. Everyone has sold or is selling. Look at the headlines on the

kitcosilver page:

 

Comex Gold Ends Weaker on Profit Taking; Silver Takes Bigger Downside

Hit as Bulls Tire - Kitco News, Apr 26 2011 2:14PM

 

Silver, Gold Prices Retreat Off Highs - The Street, Apr 26 2011 2:31PM

 

'I'm Out Of My Speculative Silver Position' - David Morgan - Kitco

News, Apr 26 2011 1:35PM

 

Silver Bulls Become Exhausted at Higher Price Levels - Kitco News, Apr

26 2011 10:28AM

 

Be Cautious Investing In Silver At This Point - Kitco News, Apr 25 2011 6:24PM

 

Kitco Audio: Are we in for a Big Silver Correction? - by Al Korelin ,

Apr 26 2011 3:13PM

 

Silver - Key Intra-Day Reversal - by Puru Saxena , Apr 26 2011 9:36AM

 

I've never known such anti-silver sentiment. Even from the silver bugs.

 

What happens if it confounds everyone and turns higher? Do they all buy back in? Do they stand there and look like fools cos they said sell?

 

Haven't got it in front of me cc but I'm sure you're silver report last year said something about if silver reaches 60% higher than 52 week MA then for goodness sake short it?

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Seeking Alpha's article 'Short Sellers Now Screaming About a Buy Side Silver Conspiracy' is one of the best articles on silver I've read in a long time.

 

'It was only a matter of time. Now the talk of silver price conspiracies has shifted from long buyers to those on the other side of the fence. On April 21st, the historically anti-precious metals editorial staff of the London Financial Times ran an article titled "Silver Surge Prompts Conspiracy Theorists". Meanwhile, order was reestablished among the short side conspirators once the COMEX trading floor opened on Monday morning.'

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/265381-short-sellers-now-screaming-about-a-buy-side-silver-conspiracy?v=1303940178

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The worst story I have ever had the misfortune to read;

 

http://www.cnbc.com//id/42807552

The one thing is that every short in the history of gold [GCCV1 1534.90 watchlist_up.gif 3.70 (+0.24%) ] and silver is a loser," said Grady.

 

I have never read so much **** in my entire life.

 

Silver Thursday continued to flame higher,

 

"flame higher"?

 

Silver has also been hot because some investors saw it as a cheap proxy for gold, and an inflation play.

 

I feel like I'm reading the missing pages of a Monty Python sketch.

 

Any questions? marketinsider@cnbc.com

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Seeking Alpha's article 'Short Sellers Now Screaming About a Buy Side Silver Conspiracy' is one of the best articles on silver I've read in a long time.

 

'It was only a matter of time. Now the talk of silver price conspiracies has shifted from long buyers to those on the other side of the fence. On April 21st, the historically anti-precious metals editorial staff of the London Financial Times ran an article titled "Silver Surge Prompts Conspiracy Theorists". Meanwhile, order was reestablished among the short side conspirators once the COMEX trading floor opened on Monday morning.'

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/265381-short-sellers-now-screaming-about-a-buy-side-silver-conspiracy?v=1303940178

excellent. 10/10.

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Interestingly in the options the market has a big skew to Puts. A couple of reasons;

 

- When spot was $30ish a lot of producers hedged themselves by buying $20 Puts and selling $50 Calls. The calls are now ATM and Puts way OTM so market makers massively short downside strikes.

 

- At these levels a lot of funds are hedging their longs as too much of crap shoot right now. Also hearing a lot of Swiss bankers advising clinets to hedge at these levels as well.

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Interestingly in the options the market has a big skew to Puts. A couple of reasons;

 

- When spot was $30ish a lot of producers hedged themselves by buying $20 Puts and selling $50 Calls. The calls are now ATM and Puts way OTM so market makers massively short downside strikes.

 

- At these levels a lot of funds are hedging their longs as too much of crap shoot right now. Also hearing a lot of Swiss bankers advising clinets to hedge at these levels as well.

 

Interesting. That will trigger some selling.

 

Professional Put sellers will sell the Puts, and Delta-hedge by shorting some silver - 50% or so if puts are at-the-money

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It's probably BS but I spoke to a fund manager yesterday who has contacts in the London futures markets. He says there is a deliberate tactic by Chinese entities to buy silver and try to break JP Morgan, because they are so furious at what the US is doing to the dollar.

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The worst story I have ever had the misfortune to read;

"The one thing is that every short in the history of gold [GCCV1 1534.90 3.70 (+0.24%) ] and silver is a loser," said Grady."

Is he trying to say that after decades they are both trading at new highs?

 

Someone who shorted at $50 in 1980, could have covered at $4, and generated enough from interest on the profits to be laughing at $100

 

A JOKE, is it?

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It's probably BS but I spoke to a fund manager yesterday who has contacts in the London futures markets. He says there is a deliberate tactic by Chinese entities to buy silver and try to break JP Morgan, because they are so furious at what the US is doing to the dollar.

Now, if this is not an interesting rumour, then what is?

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