shawth Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well Prechter is wrong on this prediction as silver has already broken new highs. I think however Prechter will be proven correct, albeit belatedly, as I think we will see a 20-30% sell off in silver in the next few weeks as part of a healthy correction within the secular bull. However this will be driven by a sell off in the SPX and not due to silvers adverse fundamentals. Prechter doesnt know what he is talking about, but he will no doubt claim he is correct after the pull back. For example, in the first 2 weeks of 2010, the SPX continued to rise in overbought territory, on the normal optimisim that the new year usually brings. There was then an 8% sell off over the next 3 weeks in to early Feb. However, at that time, silver wasnt over bought but due to its volatile nature it reacted by shedding 20% of its value. This was a healthy correction to burn off the complacent sentiment in the market and build a firm base for the spring rally. I see this happening again and due to the fact that silver is very over bought currently, I can see a 30% sell off. This is nothing out of the ordinary and is part of the normal silver trend. To capitialise and in preparation, I did follow Bubb with a long dated short on the SPY, but I sold it after a chnage of heart. Trying to time the drop using time sensitve put options, in my view, is a mugs game. When the market is being artificially buoyed by QE2, the market could stay high for several weeks more than expected which could easily wipe out any post correction profits and possibly cause a trading loss. I am planning to sell off the rest of my silver bullion by mid Jan to position myself for this expected correction. I sold off 50% at just over 30 bucks in mid December after silver reached very overbought territory at 1.5 x 200 dma. I will then be buying back in agressively once sentiment has become a little less complacent in the markets following the expected 10% SPX selll off and associated 20-30% silver correction. I expect silver to get to around $31.50 and pull back to between $22 to $25. Silver climbed to $31.19 on Monday and has now retreated below its 22 day moving average for the first time since late August. I now think it is highly probable that we will see a sell off between 20% and could be as much as 30% in line with an SPX sell off. This normally takes around 3 weeks, although the SPX has held firm this week. I therefore expect a low by the end of Jan / 1st week in Feb of around $22-$25. I will then be reversing up the truck to load up heavily for what may be a large spring rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 Silver climbed to $31.19 on Monday and has now retreated below its 22 day moving average for the first time since late August. I now think it is highly probable that we will see a sell off between 20% and could be as much as 30% in line with an SPX sell off. This normally takes around 3 weeks, although the SPX has held firm this week. I therefore expect a low by the end of Jan / 1st week in Feb of around $22-$25. I will then be reversing up the truck to load up heavily for what may be a large spring rally. I'm thinking of giving it longer, and seeing it go lower.... before heading to 50 odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawth Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm thinking of giving it longer, and seeing it go lower.... before heading to 50 odd. It is likely to follow seasonal trends and rise in to march early April and then grind sideways in to the summer where it will hit its 200dma. That will be the buying signal for the 2011 Autumn rally. Your chart RH is not sensible. You have extrapolated the trend into the 2008 low. This was caused by a genuine once in a hundred year market panic and won't be repeated for a long time. It is far more likely that this year we will see institutional investors fleeing sovereign debt and most of the cash will get piled in to the stock markets, so I expect 2011 to be a very good year for stocks. If you are waiting for silver to hit $15 I think it is highly likely you will miss the boat. $15 silver is now consigned firmly in the history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you are waiting for silver to hit $15 I think it is highly likely you will miss the boat. $15 silver is now consigned firmly in the history books. You could be right. I choose to play "the devil's advocate" with silver volatilty. If I miss the boat, just as well I'm overweight in gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://maxkeiser.com/2011/01/08/the-bottom...s-very-bullish/ MaxKeiser: We’ve got them on the run. As they expanded their naked shorts to knock down the price – nobody sold (except the few manipulated sales needed to fabricate the phony print). Net, net, the size of the physical Silver position is GROWING. The fake price action is masking the INCREASED DEMAND and SUPPLY SHORTAGES for Silver. They use fake naked sales to drive the paper price down – in the hopes that we sell out – and they can buy back at the cheaper price for a profit. But it’s not working. They have to keep borrowing money to float naked shorts and nobody on our side is selling. This is killing JP Morgan’s balance sheet. Eric King: “There is a fascinating bull/bear battle developing at the $30 level on silver. Eventually, when $30 silver is taken out on the upside with conviction, we will see some fireworks to the upside. A solid breach of that $30 level should mark the beginning of the next upleg in both gold and silver. As James said, just continue to accumulate each month and hold for the long-term.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njpurser Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm thinking of giving it longer, and seeing it go lower.... before heading to 50 odd. This is a persuasive graph but I think something changed last summer around early August. Every time the price dipped, buyers were there snapping up silver and the pattern changed, hence I sold the remainder of my gold and went all in on silver. Some big and enthusiatic buyers out there playing against JPM. Rumour has it some large hedgies are out there, happy to settle for 20% premium above spot ( in cash) during delivery months, hence the very high open interest despite the falls in price. Could be BS, but there is enough evidence of shortages to persuade me to hang on for a moonshot soon. Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is a persuasive graph but I think something changed last summer around early August. Every time the price dipped, buyers were there snapping up silver and the pattern changed, hence I sold the remainder of my gold and went all in on silver. Some big and enthusiatic buyers out there playing against JPM. Rumour has it some large hedgies are out there, happy to settle for 20% premium above spot ( in cash) during delivery months, hence the very high open interest despite the falls in price. Could be BS, but there is enough evidence of shortages to persuade me to hang on for a moonshot soon. Nick Sure, could be the case. I wouldn't bet the house on the above chart, but do think there is a fair chance of an extended period of deleveraging [where all the "fundamentals" go momentarily out the window].... which would see silver back around 18 odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 Silver is winding up for a run that will take no prisoners, show no mercy. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...-charts_07.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted January 8, 2011 Report Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is a persuasive graph but I think something changed last summer around early August. Every time the price dipped, buyers were there snapping up silver and the pattern changed, hence I sold the remainder of my gold and went all in on silver. Some big and enthusiatic buyers out there playing against JPM. Rumour has it some large hedgies are out there, happy to settle for 20% premium above spot ( in cash) during delivery months, hence the very high open interest despite the falls in price. Could be BS, but there is enough evidence of shortages to persuade me to hang on for a moonshot soon. Nick That massive 2008 capitulation event happened in ALL markets and was an extreme over reaction to fear and uncertaintly in all markets and even countries ability to continue to operate. I doubt very much we will see an event like that again.. if we do, my dry powder and options account is sitting ready in Bull mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 9, 2011 Report Share Posted January 9, 2011 Silver is winding up for a run that will take no prisoners, show no mercy. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...-charts_07.html From the second chart: "While by no means certain, the four legs of this bull breakout can carry silver to 37.50 and perhaps a spike to 40 IF there is no liquidation sell-off". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 9, 2011 Report Share Posted January 9, 2011 Massive Silver withdrawals from Comex It will be interesting to see how the CFTC, the Obama Administration and the Comex deal with this situation with silver, including massive paper short positions. We witnessed a massive withdrawal of silver unprecedented in the history of the comex. First there was a smallish 6507 oz of silver deposited to two customers, one being 497 oz and the other 6010 oz). But just look at the huge withdrawals: Our bankers are stunned to see such a huge amount of silver options in a traditionally slow month. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...drawals-at.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted January 11, 2011 Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gold, silver fall to record lows on global cues, poor demand 5 Jan, 2011, 03.34PM IST,PTI NEW DELHI: Silver witnessed the steepest fall in more than 26-month and gold fell to a 10-week low in the bullion market on panic selling by stockists, triggered by a sharp fall in bullion prices in global markets. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/market...how/7222700.cms Silver regains on global cues, gold declines 11 Jan, 2011, 02.39PM IST,PTI NEW DELHI: A divergent trend developed on the bullion market today as silver recovered on rising demand from industrial units and gold declined on reduced offtake at higher rate. Market analysts said the silver remained in demand among industrial units and coins manufacturers on expectations of more hike in its prices in coming days. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/market...how/7259225.cms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 11, 2011 Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted January 11, 2011 Report Share Posted January 11, 2011 ... which would see silver back around 18 odd. 18 :lol: ...think there is a fair chance of an extended period of deleveraging... the most leveraged players in the silver market are probably 'the' banks - and they're on the short side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 Thanks a lot. I stick with silver. http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1294236772.php Facebook worth More Than the Entire Silver Market ... The truly staggering valuation of $50 billion that Goldman Sachs has placed on Facebook, the Internet social networking website is significantly higher than the estimated $30 billion value of silver held in the vaults of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njpurser Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 Thanks a lot. I stick with silver. http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1294236772.php Totally unbelievable madness. Remionds one of the tech bubble. Silver chugging along nicely again...... Anyone know if BV got their delivery? Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 http://inflationvideo.com/crash-jp-morgan-...vs-jamie-dimon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 G:S down to 46.x Gold is looking cheap (when priced in silver!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 13, 2011 Report Share Posted January 13, 2011 Bob Hoye - wrong on silver http://howestreet.com/2011/01/momentum-1-frenzy-0/ ... Bob Hoye has been bearish since last September for the silver rally. Not only in his interview, but also in his about 10 articles with 321gold.com and safehaven.com. He used his exhaustion modle talking about that silver should come down for three months. However, since September, silver zoomed from $20 to $30. Now silver corrected 23% of the rally, he starts talking about correction. If silver goes up again, then he will be wrong from 2010 to 2011. I was a believer of Mr. Hoye, but now I am doing the opposite to what he says and I am wining. I do not want you to mention my comment in the interview! I have actually never really heard him bullish on the metals. Always a "correction" around the corner - and he never means "upward". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 13, 2011 Report Share Posted January 13, 2011 US Mint Reports Unprecedented Buying Spree Of Physical Silver Three days ago we noted that in just the first week of January, the US Mint had sold 2,221,000 ounces of silver "a number which if run-rated would be an absolutely all time monthly record," A quick glance at the tally today, shows that something very scary is going on. In the subsequent three days, the number has surged by 50% and has hit 3,407,000 ounces of silver! In just the first 12 days of the month we have already surpassed the total monthly sales of 9 separate months of 2010. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-mint-r...physical-silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 BullionVault.com Runs Out Of Silver In Germany With the US Mint selling silver at an unprecedented pace, it was only a matter of time before the silver shortage would be spotted across the Atlantic, where distributors ran out of both gold and silver on a daily basis during the first time Europe became insolvent some time in early May 2010. Sure enough, BullionVault.com has announced that it has run out of silver in Germany "due to high demand." http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bullionva...-silver-germany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 BullionVault.com Runs Out Of Silver In Germany ... Something must be wrong here. As far as I know, BV only sells silver in London: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 Something must be wrong here. As far as I know, BV only sells silver in London: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do http://gold.bullionvault.de/help/?liquidity_warning.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 Due to high demand our own silver stocks are exhausted right now. As BullionVault is only dealing with physical bars which are already in our possession, we are currently unable to offer, silver on our own market. Of course, our market is still open to all our clients act with each other and set their own prices. This situation could lead to buyers and sellers at higher prices. Buyers are asked to check the price again before they confirm their order. On Tuesday, 18 January 2011, we expect the next delivery for silver. http://gold.bullionvault.de/help/?liquidity_warning.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 +1 Bob Hoye - wrong on silver http://howestreet.com/2011/01/momentum-1-frenzy-0/ I have actually never really heard him bullish on the metals. Always a "correction" around the corner - and he never means "upward". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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