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How low can silver go?

Past COT reports suggest big commercial short covering when silver goes to the low-middle 17's.

Silver is at the 200DMA right now and seems to be a better buy (in the long term) than gold.

 

Yesterday I started buying back some of the silver I recently sold. I will continue doing so

during this price correction.

 

Romans Holiday. Note that silver priced in Euros is still at very high level and there is increased interest

by German buyers. This may NOT be a repeat of October 2008.

A repeat of 2008 in unnecessary for silver to go lower.... it went to $15 in Febuary this year. The kind of deleveraging panic seen in 2008 would probably take silver back to $10 briefly. But to capitalize on these dips, it would be best to be in dollars [the Euro price is kind of irrelevant since the Euro has depreciated so much recently]. I value my dollars quite highly these days... and would only swap them for silver at a lower price. My core bullion holding is in gold.

 

Sounds like you are having some success in trading silver. My strategy may be quite different to yours and hence my tactics towards silver. I only trade silver against US dollars to increase my dollar holding [confident to make the trade because I think silver will stay volatile and relatively strong]. My rather large dollar holding serves as a hedge [for lower gold prices] against an equally large gold holding.

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G:S looks like it has broken out of its 4 month consolidation triangle, to the upside. Next stop 100?

Well, more likely that than 50. :lol:

 

I'm considering trading a little bit of gold for silver when the ratio hits 80/ 85 odd then back to gold at 60/ 65 odd.

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A repeat of 2008 in unnecessary for silver to go lower.... it went to $15 in Febuary this year. The kind of deleveraging panic seen in 2008 would probably take silver back to $10 briefly. But to capitalize on these dips, it would be best to be in dollars [the Euro price is kind of irrelevant since the Euro has depreciated so much recently]. I value my dollars quite highly these days... and would only swap them for silver at a lower price. My core bullion holding is in gold.

 

Sounds like you are having some success in trading silver. My strategy may be quite different to yours and hence my tactics towards silver. I only trade silver against US dollars to increase my dollar holding [confident to make the trade because I think silver will stay volatile and relatively strong]. My rather large dollar holding serves as a hedge [for lower gold prices] against an equally large gold holding.

 

Your strategy makes much sense.

 

I sold some gold and some silver for dollars but also for Euros and the latter is mostly underwater.

I thought Euro was weak and live in the Eurozone. But after sinking below 1.20, the only trade that appears to be successful is selling silver for dollars, as your strategy suggests.

 

My strategy this time was to sell 10% before summer and buy back during summer. However, I am still 84% invested, Eurogold and Eurosilver have increased dramatically in price over the last 9 months, and have held over Eurosilver for 5 long years, a period when it has greatly underperformed gold. I needed some profits, in Euros.

 

 

 

 

 

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GF - looks to me like the last downtrend needs to be re-drawn

 

On another note, wrt the price action in silver, it has needed to correct from the heavy falls in late 2008, hence its corrective action to the upside is still in progress, gold on the other hand corrected a while ago and has exceeded the previous highs. Just my opinion fwiw, but i would also add that i would be very suprised if we fall bellow the high 16$ region and that the silver naysayers on here will be wrong yet again

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Yes, that's what I'm wondering about. Could I, for instance, go to (lets say) Canada, buy British Silver Coins VAT free and come back with them through customs legally, thus saving the VAT? Not worth a special trip, but if you travel a lot with work it is worth taking the effort to do this if you were going to buy silver anyway. Only if it were legal of course.

It is a personal import so up to the money laundering limit is not a problem. I always try to bring something back from whatever trip I take with silver though weight quickly becomes an issue on airplanes so I generally only bring it back when I travel by train or car.

 

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It is a personal import so up to the money laundering limit is not a problem. I always try to bring something back from whatever trip I take with silver though weight quickly becomes an issue on airplanes so I generally only bring it back when I travel by train or car.

 

 

Id5, Where do you go that VAT is less on Silver?

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Id5, Where do you go that VAT is less on Silver?

VAT free from SarniaSilver in the Channel Is. - same exempton as per CDs / DVDs etc below £18. Each ounce arrives individually and numbered!

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Thanks, but that is not what I meant. Is there a country where many people from the UK might travel to that has no VAT on Silver. ie if I was on a business trip in e.g. Finland (for example) could I pick up lots of nice VAT free silver coins and bring them home? I don't want to buy them one by one in the post!

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Well, more likely that than 50. :lol:

 

I'm considering trading a little bit of gold for silver when the ratio hits 80/ 85 odd then back to gold at 60/ 65 odd.

 

 

Yup from the chart looks like I would switch 50% of my gold at 80

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Yup from the chart looks like I would switch 50% of my gold at 80

 

halfway.gif

 

 

Half way to my target of $15. Might start buying with dollars at the end of the month. Jeff Christian, recently on FSN, was calling for over $20 towards the end of the year... where I'll be selling.

 

Had a look at the silver chart in sterling and it looked terrible. No wonder many sterling buyers are just buying silver willy nilly to get out of pounds. :lol:

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../..

 

On another note, wrt the price action in silver, it has needed to correct from the heavy falls in late 2008, hence its corrective action to the upside is still in progress, gold on the other hand corrected a while ago and has exceeded the previous highs. Just my opinion fwiw, but i would also add that i would be very suprised if we fall bellow the high 16$ region and that the silver naysayers on here will be wrong yet again

 

don't see $15 yet :lol:

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... experiencing momentary delays. ;)

 

:)

 

my worst case scenario going forward say until Oct. would be a low of $15.5 around late aug / early sept.

 

but at this moment in time i cannot see it happening and think silver will be rallying again soon - of course, a lot depends on gold (as always), if gold continues to take out new highs over the summer than silver will outperform imho

 

if gold takes a breather silver will drift lower and the first scenario may be possible - but i am not in support of that position at the moment

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http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/06/yo...-in-silver.html

 

Please sell what you have because supply is getting extremely tight and I need to buy more. Judging from the comments on this blog, the amateur gold investing community is freaked out and in panic mode right now, letting absolute morons like Prechter and "Mish" lure them into thinking the bull market in the metals is over and ready to crash. Why do people pay attention to those two anyway? The first one had a lucky call in 1987. What's he done since then? He's been pounding the table for $50 gold since 2002. And Mish? He couldn't analyze himself out of a paper bag to save his flower garden from aphids. It's absolutely astonishing that anyone listens to either of those two clowns. Knowledge without experience is not really knowledge. Neither of those two have any real experience trading the markets with real capital.

 

Ted Butler alluded to the fact that the Central Fund of Canada (CEF), which just did a huge stock deal and purchased a massive amount of gold and silver, has to wait 5-6 months for the silver to be delivered. Anyone see the problem there? A friend and colleague of mine with a good call into the managers of the fund confirmed this. If silver was in bounteous supplies, how come CEF can't get its silver delivered right away?

 

While I differ with Mr. Butler on his view that the CFTC will ultimately do the right thing and clean up the corruption in the gold/silver futures market, I have to say - in following his work for over 8 years - that he knows more about the dynamics of the silver market than ANY market professional I've ever been exposed to knows about any market, and that includes the Nobel professors I had at U of Chicago. His "bullish" meter for silver right now is 90%. If JPM takes silver below its 200 dma this week (around the $17.40 area), his meter will hit 100%.

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Prechter is a fair target, but Mish is very bullish on gold.

 

One of those guys that given the stage puts the boot in wherever he can in the shortest possible time.

 

The guy is from Denver. During my European travels I have met more north Americans from Colorado than any other state.

Is this significant?

 

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... experiencing momentary delays. ;)

 

Someone's not told the ebay buyers, near 40% ave premiums on ASE's being paid. Is this normal or have some gone barking mad? Why pay over the odds when there are good dealers with supplies?

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Someone's not told the ebay buyers, near 40% ave premiums on ASE's being paid. Is this normal or have some gone barking mad? Why pay over the odds when there are good dealers with supplies?

 

Hmmm, where can you get them cheapest then? Sarnia are £17.25 and are the cheapest I know.

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sil-2.gif

 

Silver looks to be rolling over here with lower highs and lower lows. All it would take is for gold to sell off below 1200 a little, and silver could dip to 15 once again.

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sil-2.gif

 

Silver looks to be rolling over here with lower highs and lower lows. All it would take is for gold to sell off below 1200 a little, and silver could dip to 15 once again.

 

eh? the may10 high was greater than the dec09 high and we have had higher lows since feb10

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eh? the may10 high was greater than the dec09 high and we have had higher lows since feb10

That's the difference between the short-term maniacs (traders) and the easy-going long-term investors. ;)

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eh? the may10 high was greater than the dec09 high and we have had higher lows since feb10

funny how people see different things.... maybe all observations are "theory-laden", which essentially determines how we interpret things.

 

Anyway, if silver is your investment vehicle of choice, good luck to you [sincerely... I do think it will break out at some point]. For me, gold is my investment of choice.... leaving me free to trade silver in the short/ medium term. So it's the latter rounding movement in that chart that I'm focusing on.

 

Diff'rent strokes for different folks.

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That's the difference between the short-term maniacs (traders) and the easy-going long-term investors. ;)

I'll see your "you shouldn't trade gold".... and raise it with "you should therefore trade silver". :rolleyes:

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Hmmm, where can you get them cheapest then? Sarnia are £17.25 and are the cheapest I know.

 

Yep, some on ebay though have been going far higher, average yesterday was around 22, which when I looked at packaging charge for individual coins showed plenty still do not know of places like Sarnia, Guernsey Gold or Silverbullion hence the comment.

 

Mind hear those are not to popular with postie's, elastic banding little bundles together is not a favourite chore :lol:

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