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I'm starting to think silver's about to get a pounding... I'm tempted to sell my GM silver, what are long term silver bulls thinking?

 

If this were a healthy uptrend silver would be approaching or contacting the top return line of the channel, shown as a pale blue line on the chart, but it has got nowhere near it for many months. Thus the channel is a bearish Rising Wedge, failure of which can be expected to lead to a rapid and severe decline, probably similar to that which occurred last year.

 

With gold now very oversold on a short-term basis opening up the possibility of a temporary rebound, we should not be surprised to see silver staging a minor short-term bounce in sympathy, which will be viewed as providing the perfect - and possibly final - opportunity to get out/short silver before the expected breakdown occurs.

 

silver3year201209.gif

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15949.html

 

 

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I have physical which is the insurance, my GM silver is `tradeable`. Do you think silver could hold it's head above water if there's another bout of deleveraging? Do you think we're at that point where silver could, following gold take on a life of it's own? My gut feeling is we're not far enough down that path yet, but I'm curious if others think we are.

 

Also think it could get a pounding. But will not sell as also think it could go higher [though less likely than being pounded]. Rather than sell, I will keep a large reserve of cash ready to pile in after the pounding.

 

If I had 100% in silver, I'd be lightening up.

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I have physical which is the insurance, my GM silver is `tradeable`. Do you think silver could hold it's head above water if there's another bout of deleveraging? Do you think we're at that point where silver could, following gold take on a life of it's own? My gut feeling is we're not far enough down that path yet, but I'm curious if others think we are.

Yes, I think we should be thinking in terms of years in regard to the performance of gold and silver.... we are well out ahead of the mainstream investor. Silver could maybe hold up here even with a strengthening dollar, but if we saw another round of deleveraging surely it would be pounding [why I'm keeping powder dry].

 

If I sold all my silver here for dollars, I'd feel naked. If I had everything in silver, I'd feel exposed. So kind of straddling the two at the moment. :lol:

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Thanks, I'll be watching the market closely. We are at least due a bounce from here, gold is oversold.

 

Yes, I think we should be thinking in terms of years in regard to the performance of gold and silver.... we are well out ahead of the mainstream investor. Silver could maybe hold up here even with a strengthening dollar, but if we saw another round of deleveraging surely it would be pounding [why I'm keeping powder dry].

 

If I sold all my silver here for dollars, I'd feel naked. If I had everything in silver, I'd feel exposed. So kind of straddling the two at the moment. :lol:

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Yes, I think we should be thinking in terms of years in regard to the performance of gold and silver.... we are well out ahead of the mainstream investor. Silver could maybe hold up here even with a strengthening dollar, but if we saw another round of deleveraging surely it would be pounding [why I'm keeping powder dry].

 

If I sold all my silver here for dollars, I'd feel naked. If I had everything in silver, I'd feel exposed. So kind of straddling the two at the moment. :lol:

 

naked..exposed...straddling...are you ok over there in Seoul, rh?

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naked..exposed...straddling...are you ok over there in Seoul, rh?

I'm fine... especially now that I've started a 10 week holiday! :)

 

I was just speaking facetiously..... the "comfort zone" of my own psychology is just as important for my investment decisions as to what develops in this "twilight zone" market. I aim for zero anxiety levels. :lol:

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I got one of these for Christmas:

 

BuffaloSilverOBVREV700px.jpg

 

I didn't even know that Silver Buffaloes existed. But even better, while the design looks somewhat modern, it's actually a century old. See the 1913 nickel below (also got one of these :) ).

 

Buffalo-Nickel-1913-D-T2.jpg

 

 

GF, quick question...I have been buying silver coins of late...Of course you are paying a large amount over the spot price for a coin...due to the craftsmanship, so you are paying a premium based on this...Will it be the case that when silver moves up in price you will be able to sell the coins at a premium also?

 

Thanks

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GF, quick question...I have been buying silver coins of late...Of course you are paying a large amount over the spot price for a coin...due to the craftsmanship, so you are paying a premium based on this...Will it be the case that when silver moves up in price you will be able to sell the coins at a premium also?

 

Thanks

If the market situation is somewhat 'normal', then I'd say you possibly won't be able to sell coins at a premium to spot, especially not when you sell to a professional trader/shop. However, in 2008 when the price of COMEX paper silver dropped over 50% in no time, but coins/bullion were somewhat scarce, you'd certainly been able to sell at a premium. But that was an extreme situation. In a permanent high price environment, I would not expect this.

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I got one of these for Christmas:

 

BuffaloSilverOBVREV700px.jpg

 

I didn't even know that Silver Buffaloes existed. But even better, while the design looks somewhat modern, it's actually a century old. See the 1913 nickel below (also got one of these :) ).

 

Buffalo-Nickel-1913-D-T2.jpg

 

I also have a couple silver Buffalos. Nice coin. I find that Silver coins look much nicer when you have them in your hands, as they are so shiney. You can't' really get the effect from a photo.

 

Generally I try to get maples, as they are govenment issued. I have a superstition that they may be more readily accepted in a crisis.

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If the market situation is somewhat 'normal', then I'd say you possibly won't be able to sell coins at a premium to spot, especially not when you sell to a professional trader/shop. However, in 2008 when the price of COMEX paper silver dropped over 50% in no time, but coins/bullion were somewhat scarce, you'd certainly been able to sell at a premium. But that was an extreme situation. In a permanent high price environment, I would not expect this.

 

I've never sold any of my stack, but if bullion seems to go for a premium on ebay.

 

Although why anyone would want to buy paper with their silver just before a hyperinflation is beyond me.

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Generally I try to get maples, as they are govenment issued. I have a superstition that they may be more readily accepted in a crisis.

Government issued gold and silver coins as 'legal tender' are a double edged sword.

 

On the one hand, I think you are right and they will always be more readily accepted than rounds or bars. This is true for Eagles, Buffaloes, Sovereigns, Britannias, Maples, Krugerrands, and Euros.

 

On the other hand, if they're legal tender, you generally don't really own the metal - the government owns it, and you are not allowed to melt them down. In other words, the government still has a say in it.

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