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"Devastated" miners being discussed - Time to Buy?

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Taken from - Gold: The Antidote To Our Problems - http://safehaven.com/article-12126.htm

 

Mag Silver Corporation

As expected Fresnillo Corp, the biggest silver producer in Mexico, has made a "take under bid" for Mag Silver, for the Juanicipio joint venture where Mag and Fresnillo have outlined an inferred silver resource of 238 million ounces. Mag's share is 140 million ounces. Fresnillo currently owns 19.8 percent of the company and its bid of US$4.54 is less than the company's worth particularly since a new resource is expected to be released shortly. Mag also has almost $55 million of cash. In addition, there are significant silver-lead-zinc discoveries at Cinco de Mayo plus success at Bato Pilas as well as drilling news to come from the huge Legarto land spreadwhich could be spun-off. We expect a higher offer by Fresnillo, since Mag is a critical part of Fesnillo's expansion plans. Buy.

 

MAG

 

?

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FR - high cost miner; current prices likely have all three of their mines operating in the red. Options on silver price would likely be safer.

EDR - I don't follow

GPR - I haven't reviewed their status lately

SLW - Watch out for counterparty risk. Highly liquid if you are a trader rather than an investor. Bill Cara likes them.

SST - I own some of this. Neves-Corvo may shut down if copper keeps falling but I think the Minto and Capstone streams should be safe due to hedges in place. Much less debt than SLW.

SSRI - I haven't reviewed their status lately.

PAAS - be careful here, PAAS doesn't give sufficient disclosure to determine how exposed their mines are to base metal price plunges

CDE - A bunch of crappy assets and are in danger of losing their NYSE listing

 

You are missing Hecla on your list. They currently have a financing/loan problem but if they get that straightened out then I think Hecla will emerge as one of the stronger silver miners b/c they have two great assets in Greens Creek & Lucky Friday with costs in US$.

Also you are missing GORO which is basically half gold half silver.

You have to be very careful with silver miners right now because many of them are dependent on lead, zinc, or copper for a big part of their revenue.

 

Thanks for that. Will look at Hecla - already got GORO. Re. dependancy on base metals, true - that's why I'm really interested in any that are predominately silver.

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Balls. SST is another one that's isn't crest registered - so HL can't trade it.

 

How do I go about trading foreign stocks (inc' non-crest) online myself? Is there a UK online broker that I can do this stuff through or a US/CAD one that a UK bod can use?

 

(Bought some BCM - HL are getting back to me after they hear from GLW re. what the score is with them.)

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How do I go about trading foreign stocks (inc' non-crest) online myself? Is there a UK online broker that I can do this stuff through or a US/CAD one that a UK bod can use?

 

As a UK based specu investor you can open an account online with TD Waterhouse. You can then trade any .v/.to listed stock.

 

You can also trade US listed stocks but have to complete a form for tax exemption.

 

 

 

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Hitting the Sweet Spot (& Timmins Gold Corp) by Bob Moriarty - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty...arty122908.html

 

 

Anyone has thoughts on Quadra Mining?

 

Last year they apparently made $176m profits on $590m sales. Had a 2008 P/E of 1.3

 

They seem to be cash rich ( I heard $250m in cash) even after this weeks announcement.

 

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/quadra...pper-2009-02-09

 

And their market cap is ~ $200m

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Gold Bulls Should Pour Their Winnings Into Mines: Chart of Day

2009-03-16 00:01:00.4 GMT

 

 

By Carli Lourens

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold bulls, flush from a ninth year

of gains in the metal, should pour their winnings into mining

companies as the shares benefit from falling costs, according to

analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Fairfax IS.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the FTSE Gold Mining Index,

including Barrick Gold Corp., Newmont Mining Corp., AngloGold

Ashanti Ltd. and Gold Fields Ltd., has underperformed spot gold

for about a year. Surging costs for fuel, labor and steel last

year, and declines in global stock markets have pushed the

mining index to near a record low relative to the gold price.

We would expect gold companies to outperform the gold

price from here, John Meyer, an analyst at Fairfax in London,

said March 12. Gold miners are not having to compete quite so

much with other miners in terms of skills and supplies. Margins

are relatively good in the industry.

Barrick last month said the increase in so-called cash

costs for mining gold would slow this year. AngloGold and Gold

Fields, Africas biggest producers, expect fewer government-

ordered safety stoppages after boosting worker training and

upgrading mine infrastructure to reduce fatal accidents.

Every dog has its day, said JPMorgans Steve Shepherd,

Allan Cooke and Abhishek Tiwari in a note. South African gold

equities will have their day in 2009. We expect shares to

outperform physical gold during the next six months as the

market starts to reward expanding free cash flow and margins.

 

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I'm new to investment, but I bought some shares last October in RAMBLER and CAMEC.

 

Today I notice RAMBLER have crashed from 11p to 1.5p, but I can't find any news on this. Any idea why it happened?

 

What are the prospects?

 

I DID intend to get into risky investments, this is my new hobby and I can afford to lose, (still don't like it though).

What signs should I have looked for, or, how can I avoid the same mistake in the future, assuming something terminal has happened to my canadians?

 

Your thoughts would be most welcome

 

Thanks,

 

Paul

(a.k.a the Rambler Gambler)

 

 

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I'm new to investment, but I bought some shares last October in RAMBLER and CAMEC.

 

Today I notice RAMBLER have crashed from 11p to 1.5p, but I can't find any news on this. Any idea why it happened?

 

What are the prospects?

 

I DID intend to get into risky investments, this is my new hobby and I can afford to lose, (still don't like it though).

What signs should I have looked for, or, how can I avoid the same mistake in the future, assuming something terminal has happened to my canadians?

 

Your thoughts would be most welcome

 

Thanks,

 

Paul

(a.k.a the Rambler Gambler)

 

Am a bit confused by your figs on Rambler

 

Unless you bought at start of Oct when it was about 14p, you should now be in profit - dealing costs etc excluded - they way the small cap miners have been battered thats a good result

 

See chart http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:RMM

 

my post is a work in progress - AhHa - look also at http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/p...IM%20B06Y3F1RMM

 

Some plonker has made a sale at 1.46p but the other sales are at 9.75p /10.40p / 11.45p. 10.40 = latest price

 

looks like someone hit the wrong button on 4000 shares (4000 x 10p = £400 loss?)

 

Dont know these companies myself however

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Thanks for your response -

 

I think the prob was my interpretation of the data, I confused market price with the sale you mentioned :huh:

 

Yes, I bought at 13 so still need a while to be +

 

Enjoying browsing the boards, learning a lot, thanks...

 

 

Can I end with an uninformed opinion which you can feel free to shoot down in flames if need be (I did mention I'm new to all this...)?

Companies in developed countries are looking at reducing the environmental impact of mining, so higher costs...

If the upturn comes from China or India, they may be looking just at the bottom line, so Africa etc would be their source???

 

Because I'm thinking of Australia and Tantalum now...

 

Cheers again, and thanks for your patience

 

Paul

 

 

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Can I end with an uninformed opinion which you can feel free to shoot down in flames if need be (I did mention I'm new to all this...)?

Companies in developed countries are looking at reducing the environmental impact of mining, so higher costs...

If the upturn comes from China or India, they may be looking just at the bottom line, so Africa etc would be their source???

 

Because I'm thinking of Australia and Tantalum now...

 

Knowing the link between Australia and Tantulum, you maybe will already be aware of Talison? If you were not aware, Talison were the big Aussie tantulum miner and i think they abandoned this market with around a third of worldwide production at the time. They did so due to the economic environment and effect on electrical equipment sales.

 

So what do you reckon, would they restart if prices picked up? Just food for thought, why go to Africa for Tantulum, if that was your line of thinking...

 

Riggers

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I think the prob was my interpretation of the data, I confused market price with the sale you mentioned :huh:

 

No prob I just happened to spot what has to be a rogue/error trade that must have cost someone. For a short while it must have shown up as the current market value of the share.

 

Whoever it was, his stockbroker no doubt did him no favours!

 

 

Re the future - its very unclear. I would look closely at the funding position of any miner and aim for those which are cash rich and have a business plan that does not involve much in the way of a future fund raising. Any miners which are in production/just entering production should (depending on the business plan/growth hopes) have less need to spend cash. Right now cash is king and mining is a capital expensive business which is probably why it got trashed in the market. That and smallcap/AIM issues.

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Thanks,

 

so CAMEC with £26M cash (Balance Sheet>Current Assets>Cash&cashequivalents) is a much better bet than

RAMBLER with just £2.3M cash

 

but what about the size of the business?

don't we have to look at market cap too?

or equity?

 

cheers,

 

and sorry for the dumb questions, I'll go buy a book at the weekend...

 

Paul

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sorry to hijack this thread with my innanities

 

but I've time on my hands and love this mining gamble thing that's going on...

 

XTA

TYM

PIC

AQP

IVN (need to learn more about this bloke)

FXPO

RDG

HOC

POG (ORE)

NSU

or any silver?

 

have to get my money on a quick one when my next dole cheque arrives

 

FXPO?

 

luv

 

p

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Hi Lupercal,

The truth is, I know nothing about commodities and mining!

All I would say is I'm trying to keep them separate in my mind now (while not bullish commods. See difference between VGM and Gold the last few days...)

 

What does this tell me?

 

btw, can't find Talison listed, what is their code?

still scraping lithium, aren't they?

 

cheers,

 

p

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BUMP / UPDATE

 

 

Nevsun Resources (USA) (Public, AMEX:NSU)

now = 5.12

24/10/2008 = 0.32

 

 

Pan African Resources plc (Public, LON:PAF)

now = 8.69

2008 was aprox 1.50

 

YAMANA NYSE AUY

was 2008 = $10

now $11.80

 

Avocet - LON: AVM

now at £1.79

2008 - was between 60p and 80p

 

 

Rheochem plc (Public, LON:RHEP)

24/10/2008 = 6.94

now at 10p thanks to recent burst

 

QUADRA MINING LTD (Public, TSE:QUA)

was 2.60 - 3.00 end part of 2008

now 16.59

 

CRND as mentioned on the other thread

24.75p back 28/11/2008 (source = google) to 2.5p for NotANewMember.

and a low of 1.70p 9sept 2010

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....&pid=186794

 

 

 

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Not sure if this is a "buy" but it does have something like $50m cash position where as market value is aprox $45m. - is russia focused so that might explain the discount. Cash came from sale of asset. Saw them present at Proactive. $18.8m. deferred performance based consideration to Magadan asset vendors. Cash mostly seems earmarked for spending on exploration / putting 1 mining project into effect and share buybacks. Meanwhile cash is held in gold etf's and possibly some gold shares.

 

OVG..L - AIM + OVX.IR

 

 

 

http://www.ovocagold.com/projects/operations_overview.htm

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