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The Death Cross - is this the kickoff to 2nd Great Depression?

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The DOW posts its biggest % gain since 1932. Just look at the dates below and you'll sure feel comforted about today's rally. :lol::unsure:

 

Greatest DJIA Daily % Gains of All-Time

 

Rank Date Close Net Chg % Chg

1 15.03.1933 62,10 +8,26 +15,34

2 06.10.1931 99,34 +12,86 +14,87

3 30.10.1929 258,47 +28,40 +12,34

4 21.09.1932 75,16 +7,67 +11,36

5 21.10.1987 2.027,85 +186,84 +10,15

6 03.08.1932 58,22 +5,06 +9,52

7 11.02.1932 78,60 +6,80 +9,47

8 14.11.1929 217,28 +18,59 +9,36

9 18.12.1931 80,69 +6,90 +9,35

10 13.02.1932 85,82 +7,22 +9,19

 

bouncets3.jpg

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The DOW posts its biggest % gain since 1932. Just look at the dates below and you'll sure feel comforted about today's rally. :lol::unsure:

 

Greatest DJIA Daily % Gains of All-Time

 

Rank Date Close Net Chg % Chg

1 15.03.1933 62,10 +8,26 +15,34

2 06.10.1931 99,34 +12,86 +14,87

3 30.10.1929 258,47 +28,40 +12,34

4 21.09.1932 75,16 +7,67 +11,36

5 21.10.1987 2.027,85 +186,84 +10,15

6 03.08.1932 58,22 +5,06 +9,52

7 11.02.1932 78,60 +6,80 +9,47

8 14.11.1929 217,28 +18,59 +9,36

9 18.12.1931 80,69 +6,90 +9,35

10 13.02.1932 85,82 +7,22 +9,19

 

bouncets3.jpg

 

Ah but they didnt have as many tools to debase the currency back then

 

got to be honest at the moment though - i am unsure if they are acting fast enough to reflate - and if they act too fast its hyperinflation

 

that ball at the top of the hill that Goldfinger posted comes to mind

 

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Brilliant comment really. While it was impressive, this bounce means next to nothing.

 

Exactly, traders were looking for a catalyst for a bounce, it'll take a lot more than this to convince me that this is the bottom.

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My questions are:

 

1. How high will it bounce ?

 

2. How long will it take ? Am I silly watching it today waiting to see if it hits a top ?

 

3. Has anyone noticed the sheer rate of increase of the EURJPY ? Am I the only one that thinks markets that go up that quickly, end up hitting a brick wall and coming down mighty fast ?

 

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how big a bounce? how long?

 

those are the questions i will be contemplating

 

SPX-1060 is likely, and SPX-1200 is a remote possbility

 

==

 

Nice chart, Narco.

I think I may fiddle with the title here, to encourage some more long term thinking

 

Look at how they walked it down...

aaacp2.jpg

w720.png

 

Why the 1929-32 pattern may not repeat:

 

+ The Crash of that time is buried in people's memories (especially Ben Bernanke's),

and they are keen not to repeat it

 

+ The banks got scared and started withdrawing credit, and the government stood back

and let the free market operate

 

+ The Dollar was linked to gold and was a creditor nation. Now there is no gold link, and

there is an incentive to have the dollar lose value since that will make the debt burden seem

like less in relation to a revived export sector

 

+ Oil import dependence is a huge vulnerability, and if the dollar is to fall, the US will have to

cope with the likelihood that the dollar price of oil imports will rise, perhaps massively

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This does look like a dead cat bounce given what happened Friday in the US markets. Having said this, there are more tools now. Still have trouble buying into the market after being out for so long because there are no confirmations yets.

 

How does one play in this type of a market? The market is still way below the 200 day average.

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This does look like a dead cat bounce given what happened Friday in the US markets. Having said this, there are more tools now. Still have trouble buying into the market after being out for so long because there are no confirmations yets.

 

How does one play in this type of a market? The market is still way below the 200 day average.

 

Listen to Investors Digest.

They talk about the need for a second day of strength, 3-5 days later.

I will be checking out Tom Obrien's podcast on TFNN.com, to hear more precise detail.

Anyway, i think there's a good chance the lows will be retested/beat in 2009, if not briefly in late october

(look at the Larry P/ thread, his forecast is still very much on track.)

 

As Auters says, the fact that it happened on light volume, means it carries less significance

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Monday and Tuesday are crucial days according to Larry P on last Fridays Tom Obrien show. He did n't say exactly why but I think it's got something to do with his astrological theories. He reckons that we have n't seen the big down day like happened in 1837 and if we are going to see it, it will be on one of these two days. I'm going in on the DOG tomorrow, the proshares one that is :)

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serious question:

 

does science or sentiment predict the markets I wonder ?

 

do the charts get it right just because sentiment paves the way ahead ?

 

aren't the big crashes always in Sept/Oct

 

following on from my we have charts'n'graphs to back us up post ;)

 

ps - love the thread title..... :D

 

 

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Monday and Tuesday are crucial days according to Larry P on last Fridays Tom Obrien show. He did n't say exactly why but I think it's got something to do with his astrological theories. He reckons that we have n't seen the big down day like happened in 1837 and if we are going to see it, it will be on one of these two days. I'm going in on the DOG tomorrow, the proshares one that is :)

 

you will have the logical thinkers & darwinians spitting feathers with comments like that. :o;)

 

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My jaw is on the floor at the moment, how can everyone be so naive, the media are saying it's over, what.... This is more insane than the fact we are in this mess in the first place. GB the arrogant twat has basically said he has fixed it, he is going to look more ridiculous than any other person on this planet when this comes crashing down, he's an embarrassment to the UK. People are buying shares again, this is utter madness...

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Original title : The Death Cross

Don´t be fooled.

 

 

Nice chart, Narco.

I think I may fiddle with the title here, to encourage some more long term thinking

 

 

Difference of opinion ? :o

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My jaw is on the floor at the moment, how can everyone be so naive, the media are saying it's over, what.... This is more insane than the fact we are in this mess in the first place. GB the arrogant twat has basically said he has fixed it, he is going to look more ridiculous than any other person on this planet when this comes crashing down, he's an embarrassment to the UK. People are buying shares again, this is utter madness...

 

The World economy is a confidence trick, their only current hope is for enough people to buy into it to get the scam going again. You forget that most people want life to carry on as normal and for the BBC to stop reporting about impending doom and falling wealth. Sadly for them the market always wins!

 

I find it frustrating that people can not see what is going on around them but the best policy is to work out how best to capitalise on what they are doing.

 

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This seems apparent with the more people I speak to. Those who came to this from a financial investment perspective, have the mentality that they would rather keep their money out of BV to earn interest whilst they are waiting for the right time to buy PM's. Conversely those who came to this and were not investors seem to be all/mostly in to date. I think we are both looking at the centre of the same field from opposite ends of the pitch. Personally, I don't want to take the risk as I see the system as doomed, whereas others have more faith in the system than I. Warren Buffet advocates "to get out early when risk becomes high" personally, I think that is where we are now.

 

Difference of opinion ? :o

 

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